MUTU, MUTU,
HARGA, HARGA,
WAKTU, WAKTU,
TEMPAT, TEMPAT,
KEBUTUHAN KEBUTUHAN
Uraikan proses mengisi cangkir dengan
air dari saat awal mengamati
level/tingkat air pada cangkir kosong,
menentukan tingkat/level air yang
diinginkan, mengatur bukaan keran,
mengamati kecepatan/rate aliran air,
dan naiknya level air sampai level
mencapai yang diinginkan
Faucet
Position
Desired
Water
Level
Perceived
Gap Water
Flow
Current
Water
Level
Sistem dinamik: Pemodelan dan simulasi komputer
untuk mempelajari dan mengelola sistem umpan
balik yang rumit (complex feedback systems),
seperti bisnis, sistem lingkungan, sistem sosial,
dsb.
Sistem:
◦ Kumpulan elemen yang saling berinteraksi, berfungsi
bersama untuk tujuan tertentu.
◦ Umpan balik menjadi sangat penting
Masalah dinamik
◦ Mengandung jumlah (kuantitas) yang selalu bervariasi
◦ Variasi dapat dijelaskan dalam hubungan sebab akibat
◦ Hubungan sebab akibat dapat terjadi dalam sistem tertutup
yang mengandung lingkaran umpan balik (feedback loops)
Salah satu keterbatasan yang paling penting
dari diagram sebab akibat adalah
ketidakmampuannya untuk menangkap
struktur stok dan aliran (stock and flow) dari
sistem. Stok dan aliran, bersama dengan
umpan balik, adalah dua konsep utama dari
teori sistem dinamik
Metode system dinamik mempelajari masalah
dengan sudut pandang system, dengan
elemen-elemennya saling berinteraksi dalam
suatu hubungan umpan balik sehingga
menghasilkan perilak tertentu
Interaksi dalam struktur ini diterjemahkan ke
Sistem Dinamik
Uraikan proses mengisi cangkir dengan
air dari saat awal mengamati
level/tingkat air pada cangkir kosong,
menentukan tingkat/level air yang
diinginkan, mengatur bukaan keran,
mengamati kecepatan/rate aliran air,
dan naiknya level air sampai level
mencapai yang diinginkan
Faucet
Position
Desired
Water
Level
Perceived
Gap Water
Flow
Current
Water
Level
When we fill a glass of water we operate in a
"water‑regulation" system involving five variables:
our desired water level, the glass's current water level;
the gap between the two;
the faucet position; and
and the water flow.
These variables are organized in a circle or loop of
cause‑effect relationships which is called a "feedback
process.“
Delays are Interruptions between actions and their
consequences
Faucet
Position
y
Desired Dela
Water
Level
Perceived Water
Gap Flow
Current
Water
Level
Faucet
Desired Position
Water
Level
Perceived Water
Gap Flow
Current
Water
Level
Untuk memudahkan bagaimana berfikir
sistimatis, struktur system dinamik
disederhanakan kedalam diagram kausal loop
= diagram simpal kausal yaitu :
◦ Pengungkapan tentang kejadian hubungan sebab
akibat ke dalam bahasa gambar tertentu
◦ Bahasa gambar dibuat dalam bentuk panah yang
saling terkait, sehingga membentuk sebuah
diagram simpal [causal loop] dimana hulu panah
mengungkapkan sebab dan ujung panah
mengungkapkan akibat
CLD menunjukkan struktur umpan balik dari sistem
Gaji VS Kinerja Lelah VS Tidur
◦ Gaji Kinerja Lelah tidur
◦ Kinerja Gaji Tidur lelah ?
+ +
Lelah - Tidur
-
+ +
+ -
Evaporation clouds rain amount of water
evaporation …
Sunshine
+
- + +
Earth’s A mount of
-
- temperature Evaporation water on earth
+
+ + + -
+
Clouds Rain
+
Items that affect other items in the system
but are not themselves affected by anything
in the system
Arrows are drawn from these items but there
are no arrows drawn to these items
+
delay
+
Planting rate -
+
There are systems which have more than one
feedback loop within them
A particular loop in a system of more than one
loop is most responsible for the overall behavior
of that system
The dominating loop might shift over time
When a feedback loop is within another, one loop
must dominate
Stable conditions will exist when negative loops
dominate positive loops
KULIAH SAMPAI DISINI
27/11/20
+ -
fatigue
overtime hours work done
+ required + productivity
+
Level
Source/Sink
Constant
Stock, accumulation, or state variable
A quantity that accumulates over time
Change its value by accumulating or
integrating rates
Change continuously over time even when the
rates are changing discontinuously
Flow, activity, movement
Change the values of levels
The value of a rate is
system
+
Births Population
+
Births
Population
+ + +
Births Children - Children maturing Adults
-
+ +
Children
Births maturing
children Adults
Rabbit
Population
births deaths
L1’ L1
∫
k2
- k1
Flow Graph Equations
R2 R3 dL1/dt = R1 – R2
R1
L2 dL2/dt = R2 – R3
L1
R1 = k 1
R 2 = K 2 * L1
R 3 = K 3 * L2
Block Model dL1/dt = k1 – k2*L1
Industrial
Construction Demolition
+ buildings
+ + -
Construction Average
fraction +
Fraction of lifetime
- for buildings
land occupied
Land available for + Average area
-
Industrial buildings per building
Flow Graph Equations
Construction (C) Demolition (D) dBl/dt = Cr – Dr
Industrial
Buildings (B) Cr = f1(CF, Bl)
Dr = f2(AL,Bl)
Average lifetime
for buildings CF = f3(FLO)
Construction (AL)
fraction FLO = f4(LA,AA,Bl)
Fraction of
(CF)
land occupied
Land available for (FLO) Average area
industrial buildings per building
(LA) (AA)
Simulation Model Design and Execution,
Fishwick, Prentice-Hall, 1995 (Textbook)
Introduction to Computer Simulation: A system
dynamics modeling approach, Nancy Roberts et
al, Addison-wesley, 1983
Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and
modeling for a complex world, John D.
Sterman, McGraw-Hill,2000