PUSAT STUDI LINGKUNGAN HIDUP

INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG

PELATIHAN KLHS GELOMBANG 2

(18 – 22 FEBRUARI 2019)
Materi 7:
Sistem Dinamik

Oleh:
Dr. Asep Sofyan, MT
Download: http://www.vensim.com/
 Apakah Sistem Dinamik itu?
• Sistem dinamik: Pemodelan dan simulasi komputer
untuk mempelajari dan mengelola sistem umpan
balik yang rumit (complex feedback systems),
seperti bisnis, sistem lingkungan, sistem sosial, dsb.
• Sistem:
– Kumpulan elemen yang saling berinteraksi, berfungsi
bersama untuk tujuan tertentu.
– Umpan balik menjadi sangat penting
• Masalah dinamik
– Mengandung jumlah (kuantitas) yang selalu bervariasi
– Variasi dapat dijelaskan dalam hubungan sebab akibat
– Hubungan sebab akibat dapat terjadi dalam sistem
tertutup yang mengandung lingkaran umpan balik
(feedback loops)
 Sejarah
• Cybernetics (Wiener, 1948): studi yang
mempelajari bagaimana sistem biologi, rekayasa,
sosial, dan ekonomi dikendalikan dan diatur
• Industrial Dynamics (Forrester, 1961):
mengaplikasikan prinsip “cybernetics” ke dalam
sistem industri
• System Dynamics: karya Forrester semakin
meluas meliputi sistem sosial dan ekonomi
• Dengan perkembangan komputer yang sangat
cepat, Sistem Dinamik menyediakan kerangka
kerja dalam menyelesaikan permasalahan sistem
sosial dan ekonomi
 Tahap Pemodelan Sistem Dinamik

1. Identifikasi masalah
2. Membangun hipotesis dinamik yang menjelaskan
hubungan sebab akibat dari masalah termaksud
3. Membuat struktur dasar grafik sebab akibat
4. Melengkapi grafik sebab akibat dengan informasi
5. Mengubah grafik sebab akibat yang telah
dilengkapi menjadi grafik alir Sistem Dinamik
6. Menyalin grafik alir Sistem Dinamik kedalam
program DYNAMO, Stella, Vensim, Powersim, atau
persamaan matematika
 Aspek Penting
• Berfikir dalam terminologi hubungan sebab
akibat
• Fokus pada keterkaitan umpan balik
(feedback linkages) diantara komponen-
komponen sistem
• Membuat batasan sistem untuk menentukan
komponen yang masuk dan tidak di dalam
sistem
 Hubungan Sebab Akibat
• Berfikir sebab akibat adalah kunci dalam
mengorganisir ide-ide dalam studi Sistem Dinamik
• Gunakan kata `menyebabkan` atau `mempengaruhi`
untuk menjelaskan hubungan antar komponen di
dalam sistem
• Contoh yang logis (misalnya hukum fisika)
– makan berat bertambah
– api  asap
• Contoh yang tidak logis (sosiologi, ekonomi)
– Pakai sabuk pengaman  mengurangi korban fatal
dalam kecelakaan lalu lintas
 Umpan balik (Feedback)
• Berfikir sebab akibat saja tidak cukup
• Umpan balik: untuk mengatur/
mengendalikan sistem, yaitu berupa suatu
sebab yang terlibat dalam sistem namun
dapat mempengaruhi dirinya sendiri
• Umpan balik sangat penting dalam studi
Sistem Dinamik
 Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)
CLD menunjukkan struktur umpan balik dari sistem

• Gaji VS Kinerja  Lelah VS Tidur

– Gaji  Kinerja  Lelah  tidur
– Kinerja  Gaji  Tidur  lelah ?

Gaji Kinerja Lelah Tidur

 Penanda CLD
+ : jika penyebab naik, akibat akan naik (pertumbuhan,
penguatan), jika penyebab turun, akibat akan turun

- : jika penyebab naik, akibat akan turun, jika penyebab

turun, akibat akan naik

+ +

Gaji Kinerja Lelah Tidur

+ -
Pemahaman “Sebab” – “Akibat”

Sales are poor

Sales force is weak

Overworked

Number is limited
 Augmenting CLD 2 –
(Determining Loop Polarity)

• Positive feedback (reinforcing) loops

– Have an even number of ‘–’ signs
– Some quantity increase, a “snowball” effect takes over and that
quantity continues to increase
– The “snowball” effect can also work in reverse
– Generate behaviors of growth, amplify, deviation, and reinforce
– Notation: place + symbol in the center of the loop
• Negative feedback (balancing) loops
– Have an odd number of “–” signs
– Tend to produce “stable”, “balance”, “equilibrium” and “goal-
seeking” behavior over time
– Notation: place - symbol in the center of the loop
 Positive/Reinforcing Loops

• Accelerating growth or accelerating

decline
Positive/Reinforcing Loops

• Salary  Performance, Performance 

Salary
The more salary I get
The better I perform +
The better I perform Salary + Performance
The more salary I get
+
The more salary I get
The better I perform
 Negative /Balancing Loop

 Tired  Sleep, Sleep  Tired

The more I sleep The less tired I am

The more tired I am The less tired I am

The more I sleep The less I sleep

The less I sleep The more tired I am

+

Tired - Sleep

-
 Balancing Loops

Body Temperature

Desired Body
Adjust Clothing Temperature

Temperature Gap
 Balancing Loops

• System reverts to status quo

• The goals are implicit
 Loop Dominance

• There are systems which have more than one

feedback loop within them
• The dominating loop might shift over time
• When a feedback loop is within another, one loop
must dominate
• Stable conditions will exist when negative loops
dominate positive loops
 Combined Feedback Loops
(Case of Population Growth)

+ +

Birth rate + Polulation

Population - Death rate

+ -
 Exogenous Items

• Items that affect other items in the system but are not
themselves affected by anything in the system
• Arrows are drawn from these items but there are no
arrows drawn to these items

+
Sunlight reaching - Density of plants
each plant

Sunlight
-
+
Delays: The Sluggish Shower

Current Water
Temperature Desired Water
Temperature

Shower Tap
Setting Temperature
Gap
 Delays

• When you tell the story add the word

“eventually”
• Cause the system to overshoot the
target
 Delays

• Systems often respond sluggishly

• From the example below, once the trees are planted,
the harvest rate can be ‘0’ until the trees grow enough
to harvest

delay
+

# of growing trees - Harvest rate

Planting rate -
+
 System Thinking

System Structure

Pattern of Behaviour

Events
 Basic System Behaviors

Exponential Growth S-shaped Growth

Goal Seeking S-shaped Growth with Overshoot

Oscillation Overshoot and Collapse

 Exponential Growth

Positive feedback loops generate growth, amplify

deviations, and reinforce change. An initial
quantity of something starts to grow, and the rate
of growth increases.

System Level

Inflow

Net increase ra te
 Goal Seeking

Negative feedback loops seek balance, equilibrium,

and static. The quantity of interest starts either
above or below a goal level and over time moves
toward the goal.

System Level
Co rrective Action

Discre pancy

Ra te of change Goal
 Oscillation

Time delays cause the state of system to constantly

overshoots its goal or equilibrium state, reverses,
then undershoots, and so on. the quantity of
interest fluctuates around some level.

System Level
Co rrective Action

Perceptio n

Discr epancy Perceptio n Delay

Ra te of change Goal
 S-shaped Growth

No real quantity can grow or decline forever, eventually

one or more constraints halt the growth. Initial
exponential growth is followed by goal-seeking
behavior which results in the variable leveling o°.

System Level
Net Increase Rate

Re sour ce Ad equacy

Normal Growth Rate Ca rryin g Capacity

 S-Shaped Growth with Overshoot
Time delays in lead to the possibility that the
state of the system will overshoot and
oscillate around the carrying capacity.

System Level
Net Increase Rate

Re source Ad equacy

De la yed Resource Effe ct

Normal Growth Rate Ca rrying Capacity

 Overshoot and Collapse

The ability of the environment to support a

growing population is eroded or consumed
by the population itself.
Co nsumption rate

Ca rryin g Capacity

Erosion of Carr ying Capa city

System Level
Net Increase Rate

Normal Growth Rate Re sour ce Ad equacy

Stock & Flow Diagram
Stock & Flow Diagram
• Three different types of elements are (i)
stock/level/accumulation, (ii) flow/rate, and (iii)
information
• The stock and flow diagram shows relationships
among variables which have the potential to
change over time (time based variables)
• Unlike a causal loop diagram, a stock and flow
diagram distinguishes between different types of
variables
Stock & Flow Diagram
• A stock is an accumulation of something (as
representing physical entities/elements/units),
“state variable”  rectangular box
• A flow is the movement of the “something" from
one stock to another  double line arrow
• Rate of flow is controlled by “valve”
• Information is symbolized by an “arrow”
• Example : the money is a stock, and the transfer
operation for the money is a flow
Types of Stock & Flow
• Materials : this includes all stocks and flows
of physical goods which are part of a
production and distribution process,
whether raw materials, in-process
inventories, or finished products.
• Personnel : this generally refers to actual
people, for example; hours of labour.
• Capital equipment : this includes such
things as factory space, tools, and other
equipment necessary for the production of
goods and provision of services.
Types of Stock & Flow
• Orders : this includes such things as orders for
goods, requisitions for new employees, and
contracts for new space or capital equipment.
Orders are typically the result of some
management decision which has been made,
but not yet converted into the desired result.
• Money: this is used in the cash sense. That is, a
flow of money is the actual transmittal of
payments between different stocks of money.
Menu dan Toolbar
MENU
• File : Open Model, Save, Print, dll.
• Edit : copy and paste, search, dll
• View : manipulating the sketch of the model and for
viewing a model
• Layout : manipulate the position and size of elements in
the sketch.
• Model : Simulation Control and the Time Bounds dialogs,
the model checking features, and importing and exporting
datasets.
• Tools : sets Vensim's global options and allows you to
manipulate Analysis tools
• Windows : to switch among different open windows.
• Help : provides access to the on-line help system.
Toolbar
Sketch Tools
Lock — sketch is locked.
Move/Size — move, sizes and selects sketch objects: variables, arrows, etc.
Variable — creates variables ( Constants , Auxiliaries and Data).
Box Variable — create variables with a box shape (used for Levels or Stocks).
Arrow — creates straight or curved arrows.
Rate — creates Rate (or flow) construct
Model Variable — adds an existing model variable
Shadow Variable — adds as a shadow variable
Merge — merges two variables into a single variable, etc
Input Output Object — adds input Sliders and output graphs and tables to the sketch.
Sketch Comment — adds comments and pictures to the sketch.
Unhide Wand — unhides (makes visible) variables in a sketch view.
Hide Wand — hides variables in a sketch view.
Delete — deletes structure, variables in the model, and comments in a sketch.
Equations — creates and edits model equations using the Equation Editor.
Reference Modes — use to draw and edit reference models.
Analysis Tool Output
 Control Panel

Variable allows you to choose a variable in your model and select it as the Workbench
Variable.
Time Axis allows you to change or focus the period of time over which Analysis tools
operate.
Scaling enables you to change the scales of output graphs.
Datasets allows you to manipulate the stored datasets (runs).
Graphs brings up the Custom Graph Control.
Placeholders is a control that sets Placeholder Values
 PengenalanModel
Dinamik
(Aplikasi Vensim PLE)

Institut Teknologi Bandung

2019
 SEKILAS TENTANG VENSIM
• Vensim merupakan perangkat
pemodelan visual yang terdiri
dari konseptualisasi,
dokumentasi, simulasi, analisis
dan optimasi model
sistemdinamis
• Vensim menyediakan suatu cara
yang sederhana dan fleksibel
dalam membangun model
simulasi seperti causal loop diagram
atau diagram stok dan flow
• Konfigurasi vensim sangat
mudah digunakan dan user-friendly
 Pemodelan Sistem
• Identifikasi isu, tujuan dan Batasan
Dilakukan dengan menentukan isu yang diangkat, hal yang
ingin dicapai secara langsung, dan ruang lingkup model
• Konseptualitasi model
Menggambarkan konsep keseluruhan model yang akan
disusun, komponen-komponen yang terlibat, serta interak
antar komponenya.
• Spesifikasi model
Dilakukan dengan merumuskan interaksi antar komponen
dalam bentuk persamaan numerik
 Pemodelan Sistem
• Evaluasi model
Menguji kesesuaian model yang dibentuk dengan dunia nyata.
• Penggunaan model
Proses mendata alternative yang mungkin ditempuh dan
dijalankan melalui pemodelan yang terbentuk
 Fitur Utama
• Title Bar
Memperlihatkan model vensim
yang sedang dibuka fan variable
workbench
• Menu
Terdiri dari fitur file, edit, view,
model, options, windows dan help
• Main Toolbar
• Lembar Kerja (Build Window)
• Status Bar
• Analysis Tools
 Fitur Utama
= berfungsi sebagai konstanta dan memproses beberapa persamaan sederhana

= berfungsi sebagai stock yaitu tempat akumulasi suatu perhitungan

= berfungsi sebagai converter yaitu penghubung antara variable dengan

variable lain ataupun stock
= berfungsi sebagai conveyor yaitu memiliki peran dalam suatu perhitungan
yang berkaitan dengan stock
= berfungsi untuk menyalin atau cloning suatu variable termasuk nilai-
nilai yang terdapat dalam variable tersebut
Memulai Model Baru
Contoh Input Data
 Contoh Simulasi
Jumlah Penduduk
Konsep Model