Implementasi System Dynamics

(Dinamika Sistem)
dalam
Pembuatan Kebijakan

Muhammad Tasrif
SYSTEM DYNAMICS BANDUNG BOOTCAMP

Jl. Pahlawan 55 Bandung 40123 – Tlp 022 20461223

email: muhammadtasrif52@gmail.com – HP 08122468268

Slide 1
 A.
Konsep System Dynamics

2
 Fenomena

Fenomena (phenomenon)
Suatu fenomena adalah sesuatu yang dapat
kita lihat, alami, dan rasakan.
(Something experienced: a fact or occurrence that
can be observed.)

Fenomena Cinta

3
Fenomena kisah cinta Romeo
Emosi cinta Romeo

Perasaan senang/benci Perasaan senang/benci

Juliet terhadap Romeo Romeo terhadap Juliet

Struktur
Emosi cinta
(Structure)
Juliet
Juliet
4
Perilaku (Behavior)

5
Fenomena Fisik
Fenomena yang tidak melibatkan campur tangan manusia
atau keputusan manusia (fenomena alam atau fenomena
yang dibuat manusia berdasarkan hukum alam) [a natural
phenomenon involving the physical properties of matter
and energy (physical law)]

Fenomena Sosial
Segala sesuatu yang dipengaruhi oleh kegiatan atau
aktivitas manusia melalui keputusan-keputusan yang
dibuatnya (proses pembuatan keputusan) [anything that
influences or is influenced by organisms sufficiently alive
to respond to one another (decision making)]
6
 Suatu fenomena menyangkut 2 hal (aspek):
(1) Struktur (structure) Perilaku (behavior) (2)
(unsur pembentuk fenomena dan pola (perubahan suatu besaran/variabel
keterkaitan antar unsur tersebut) dalam suatu kurun waktu tertentu, baik
kuantitatif maupun kualitatif)
A
Cinta Romeo (unit rasa)

D
B

C
Tahun
Fenomena sosial:
struktur fisik; dan
struktur pembuatan keputusan.
Perilaku suatu fenomena dimunculkan oleh strukturnya.
[Pemahaman hubungan struktur dan perilaku
sangat diperlukan dalam mengenali suatu fenomena.]
7
 Struktur: (1) pembuatan keputusan; dan
(2) fisik.
Struktur pembuatan keputusan Proses pembuatan keputusan
Keadaan yang
diinginkan(goal)

Lainnya Kaidah (rule) Keputusan

Informasi
(aksi)

Keadaan
Proses pembuatan keputusan (actual state)
(Teori pembuatan keputusan)

Struktur fisik Hukum alam

8
 Hubungan (keterkaitan):
(1) sebab-akibat (cause & effect); dan
(2) korelasi statistik.
▪ Hubungan sebab-akibat antar sepasang variabel (variabel
sebab terhadap variabel akibat), dalam suatu fenomena,
harus dipandang dengan suatu konsep bahwa hubungan
variabel lainnya terhadap variabel akibat dianggap tidak ada.
▪ Sedangkan suatu korelasi statistik antara sepasang variabel,
dalam suatu fenomena, diturunkan dari data kedua variabel
tersebut yang diperoleh dalam keadaan (kondisi) semua
variabel yang terdapat dalam fenomena itu berhubungan
satu dengan yang lainnya dan kesemuanya berubah secara
simultan.
9
 + Ada 2 macam polarisasi (arah) hubungan
sebab-akibat (kausal), yaitu:

▪ hubungan kausal positif (+ atau s); dan

▪ hubungan kausal negatif (- atau o).
-

10
Hubungan Kausal Positif

Populasi meningkat (menurun), kelahiran akan meningkat (menurun)

[aspek perubahan, searah]

11
Hubungan Kausal Negatif

Harga meningkat (menurun), konsumsi akan menurun (meningkat)

[aspek perubahan, negasi]

12
Hubungan sebab-akibat (kausal) beberapa
pasangan variabel dapat membentuk suatu
lingkaran tertutup (lingkar umpan-balik,
feedback loop, atau causal loop).

Ada 2 macam lingkar umpan-balik, yaitu:

• lingkar umpan-balik positif (growth); dan
• lingkar umpan-balik negatif (goal seeking)
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) populasi
+ +

Kelahiran (+) Populasi (-) Kematian

+ -
13
Kerangka Pemikiran (Pendekatan)
[untuk memahami hubungan struktur suatu fenomena
terhadap perilakunya]

14
 Membuat suatu model simulasi (pemodelan, modeling)
(model adalah deskripsi struktur suatu fenomena menggunakan media-media
yang dapat dikomunikasikan)
Policy (intervention)?
Real world (fenomena)
Unknown process

Real world Real world

decisions history

Pemodelan
Model Model
structure behavior
Simulation

Model
15
Metodologi pemodelan System Dynamics
Struktur Perilaku
(fisik & pembuatan keputusan)

unsur pembentuk
pola keterkaitan antar unsur:

(1) feedback loop (causal loop);

(2) stock (level) dan flow (rate);
(3) delay; dan
(4) nonlinearity.

(ontological: the ways reality itself could be)

16
 System Dynamics Methodology
Source: System Dynamics Home Page.htm

▪ System dynamics is a methodology for studying

and managing complex feedback systems, such
as one finds in business and other social
systems.
▪ In fact it has been used to address practically
every sort of feedback system.
▪ While the word system has been applied to all
sorts of situations, feedback is differentiating
descriptor here.
17
▪ Feedback refers to the situation of X affecting
Y and Y in turn affecting X perhaps through a
chain of causes and effects.
▪ One cannot study the link between X and Y
and, independently, the link between Y and X
and predict how the system behave. Only the
study of the whole system as a feedback
system will lead to correct results.

18
 What is the relationship of Systems
Thinking to System Dynamics
▪ Systems thinking looks at the same type of problems
from the same perspective as does system dynamics.
▪ The two techniques share the same causal loop
mapping techniques.
▪ System dynamics takes the additional step of
constructing computer simulation models to confirm
that the structure hypothesized can lead to the
observed behavior and to test the effects of
alternative policies on key variables over time.
▪ 19
Hubungan sebab-akibat (kausal) beberapa
pasangan variabel dapat membentuk suatu
lingkaran tertutup (lingkar umpan-balik,
feedback loop, atau causal loop).

Ada 2 macam lingkar umpan-balik, yaitu:

• lingkar umpan-balik positif (growth); dan
• lingkar umpan-balik negatif (goal seeking)
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) populasi
+ +

Kelahiran (+) Populasi (-) Kematian

+ -
20
 Level (Stock) dan Rate (Flow)
▪ Dalam merepresentasikan aktivitas dalam suatu lingkar
umpan-balik, digunakan dua jenis variabel yang disebut
sebagai level dan rate.
▪ Level menyatakan kondisi sistem pada setiap saat. Dalam
kerekayasaan (engineering) level sistem lebih dikenal sebagai
state variable system. Level merupakan akumulasi di dalam
sistem.
▪ Persamaan suatu variabel rate merupakan suatu struktur
kebijakan (policy) yang menjelaskan mengapa dan bagaimana
suatu keputusan (action) dibuat berdasarkan kepada
informasi yang tersedia di dalam sistem. Rate inilah satu-
satunya variabel dalam model yang dapat mempengaruhi
level.
(rate disebut juga sebagai decision point)
21
Delay

22
 Nonlinearity

[nonlinier]

23
 B.
Tahapan Pengumpulan Data

24
 Data
Mental data base
▪ Information for modeling is available from Observation
many different sources (Forrester, 1980). Experience
Figure 1 suggests three kinds of data
bases: mental, written and numerical.

▪ Those working with statistics may think of Written data

data as always coming in measured, base
numerical form. But Webster's Third
Unabridged Dictionary gives no hint that Numerical data
data are restricted to numerical base
information. Figure 1. Mental database and decreasing content
of written and numerical databases

25
 Mental data base
▪ Webster's defines data as "something Observation
Experience
that is given from being experientially
encountered" and "material serving as a
basis for discussion, inference, or
determination of policy" and "detailed
Written data
information of any kind". This broad base
definition must include data stored
mentally in people's heads, data stored
Numerical data
descriptively in writing, and data
base
available numerically.
Figure 1. Mental database and decreasing content
of written and numerical databases

26
As suggested by the figure, the amount of Mental data base
available information declines, probably by many Observation
orders of magnitude, in going from mental to Experience
written information and again by another similar
large factor in going from written to numerical
information.

Furthermore, the character of information content Written data

changes as one moves from mental to written to base
numerical information. In moving down the
diagram, there is a progressively smaller
Numerical data
proportion of information about structure and
policies. Each kind of information can fill a base
different role in modeling a business or social Figure 1. Mental database and decreasing content
of written and numerical databases
system.
27
 Qualitative data collection techniques that
support System Dynamics model building

Mental data base

Observation
Experience

Written data
base

Numerical data
base
Mental database and decreasing content of
written and numerical databases

28
 C.
Penyusunan Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)
dan
Flow Diagram

29
 Guidelines for Causal-loop Diagrams
The apparent simplicity of causal-loop diagram is deceptive. It is
easy for would-be modelers to go astray with them. The following
suggestion may help to prevent the more common difficulties.
1. Think of variables in causal-loop diagrams as quantities that can
rise or fall, grow or decline, or be up or down. But do not worry if
you can not readily think of existing measures of them.
Corollaries:
a) Use nouns or noun phrases in causal-loop diagrams, not verbs. The
actions are in the arrows (see Figure 3.2).
b) be sure it is clear what is means to say a variable increases or
decreases. (Not attitude toward crime”, but “tolerance for crime”.)
c) Do not use causal-links to mean “and then…..”

30
 Lengthening
Rising Falling
delivery
orders inventory
delay

Not:
Shortening
Rising Falling
delivery
inventory orders
delay

-
Orders Inventory
But rather:
-

Delivery -
delay

Figure 3.2 Loops illustrating that the action in causal-loop

diagram is best left to the arrows
31
2. Identify the units of the variables in causal-loop diagram, if
possible. If necessary, invent some: some psychological
variables might have to be thought of in “stress units” or
“pressure units”, for example. Units help to focus the meaning
of a phrase in a diagram.
3. Phrase most variables positively (“emotional state” rather than
“depression”. It is hard to understand what it to say
“depression increases” when testing link and loop polarities.

32
4. If a link needs explanation, disaggregate it – make it a sequence
of links. For example, a study of heroin-related crime claimed a
positive link from heroin price to heroin-related crime. The link is
clear if disaggregated as in Figure 3.3 into the sequence of
positive links from heroin price to money required per addict,
frequency of crimes per addict, and finally heroin-related crime.
Some might feel a high price deters addict and so lowers the
number of addicts as it well might, but that is another link (see
Figure 3.3).
5. Beware of interpreting open loops as feedback loops. Figure 3.3,
for example, does not show a feedback loop.

33
 Money needed
to support habit
+ +
Frequency of
crimes per addict

Heroin
price +
Heroin-related
crime

Addicts +
-

Figure 3.3 Links relating heroin price and crime

34
 Contoh-contoh

Fenomena tabungan (deposito)

Tabungan Bunga per tahun

35
 Kinerja murid

Pengetahuan murid Kinerja murid

Dinamika hutan

Jumlah pohon Biji benih yang dihasilkan

36
 Penjualan

Hasil penjualan Jumlah wira usaha

Populasi dan kelahiran

Populasi Kelahiran

37
Lapangan pekerjaan vs urbanisasi

Lapangan pekerjaan Urbanisasi

di kota

Populasi dan kematian

Populasi Kematian

38
Fenomena penyejukan ruangan

Suhu ruangan Operasi penyejukan

Fenomena polusi (pencemaran)

Tingkat polusi

Pengendalian Perhatian terhadap

polusi polusi
39
 Fenomena harga daging sapi

Stok daging sapi

Sapi yang Konsumsi daging

disembelih sapi

Harga daging sapi

40
 D.
Simulasi, Validasi,
dan
Uji Sensitivitas Model

41
Model Polusi

42
Model Polusi
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) Linear

+ +
Pollution grwoth
Pollution - Pollution
rate
absorption rate
- -

pollution
absorption time

43
 Model Polusi Linear
Flow Diagram & Perilaku
Pollution
Pollution 20
Pollution Pollution
gneration rate absorption rate

ton
10
Pollution
Pollution generation
constant absoption time
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Time (tahun)
Pollution : Polgr 2
Pollution : Polgr 4
Pollution : Polgr 8
Pollution : Polgr 20

44
Model Polusi
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) Nonlinear

+ -
Pollution grwoth
Pollution - Pollution
rate
absorption rate
-
+

Nonlinear +

+ Pollution
absorption time

45
 Model Polusi Nonlinear
Flow Diagram & Perilaku
PR[ ] PAT(Year)
0 0.6

Pollution 10 2.5
Pollution Polution
generation rate absorption rate 20 5

Polution 30 8
Pollution generation
absorption time 40 11.5
constant
50 15.5
Pollution ratio
Pollution 60 21
absorption lookup
70 31
Pollution standard
80 50

46
 D.
Tahapan Perancangan Kebijakan

47
Pertanyaan terhadap Fenomena
(Perilaku)
a) Berapakah nilai (angka) besaran itu pada suatu titik
waktu yang akan datang? [point prediction]
(prakiraaan, prediksi masa depan)

b) Mengapa perubahan besaran tersebut seperti itu?

(why ?) Dan dengan cara bagaimanakah
mengubahnya? (how ?) [behavior prediction]
(menyusun strategi dan memformulasikan
kebijakan, analisis kebijakan atau policy analysis)

48
Fenomena Population Collapse

49
The fundamental challenges facing management …
Source: Warren, Kim (2001). Strategy Dynamics: .... back to fact-based
strategic management in World Congress on Systemic Management: Vienna,
4th May, 2001. [www.strategydynamics.com, kwarren@london.edu]

▪ Why is our performance

following its current path?
▪ Where is it going if we carry on
as we are?
▪ How can we design a robust
strategy to radically improve this
performance into the future?

50
 Strategi dan Kebijakan
Tujuan

Menciptakan kondisi & iklim yang mendukung

diwujudkan dengan

Strategi Kebijakan

perwujudan dan pelaksanaan

diungkapkan
diimplementasikan
dalam bentuk
melalui berbagai

Program
▪ Policy statements
▪ Policy instruments
direalisasikan dengan ▪ Policy measures
melaksanakan

Aktivitas

51
Strategi (strategy)
Sebuah rencana (metode) aksi untuk mencapai
suatu tujuan tertentu [a plan (method) of action
to achieve a particular goal (aim)]

52
Kebijakan
Petunjuk-petunjuk (directives) yang dikeluarkan dan
disebarluaskan (oleh pemerintah) dengan tujuan:
▪ Menciptakan serta membangun iklim dan kondisi
yang perlu untuk mendukung (to facilitate)
pelaksanaan strategi;
▪ Memberikan kepastian kepada unsur-unsur dunia
usaha, masyarakat luas, dan peyelenggara
pemerintahan; tentang arah, ruang lingkup, dan
tingkat keleluasaan masing-masing di dalam memilih
upaya yang berkaitan dengan strategi tersebut.

53
Pelaksanaan Kebijakan
Untuk melaksanakan kebijakan, setelah mengeluarkan
kebijakan (pernyataan), policy measures harus dibentuk:
▪ Bentuk, rumuskan, dan keluarkan instrumen-instrumen
kebijakan (hukum, peraturan, petunjuk-petunjuk);
▪ Bentuk dan dirikan badan-badan administratif dan prosedur-
prosedur untuk mencatat (to administer) kegiatan-kegiatan
yang berkaitan dengan pelaksanaan kebijakan; dan
▪ Alokasikan sumberdaya (dana, manusia, fasilitas) untuk
mendukung badan administratif di atas.

54
 Keinginan (desired)
yang ingin dicapai

Informasi ‘TUJUAN’
[T]
Deskriptif
Orientatif
Arahan dasar
bagi tindakan
untuk
Informasi yang
Proses Pendekatan relevan Informasi
mencapai
tujuan
(Basis informasi ‘STRATEGI’
Perumusan Kebijakan untuk [S]
mengidentifikasi Preskriptif
dan
memformulasikan T, ‘KEBIJAKAN’ Arahan-arahan yang Kegiatan dan
S, P, dan K) [K] perlu untuk rencana untuk
Orientatif, Preskriptif mendukung S&P merealisasikan
strategi

‘PROGRAM’
Informasi [P]
Preskriptif

Pengamatan analitik tentang

dunia nyata (deskriptif)

55
Perancangan suatu model System Dynamics

Policy
Concept from Principle of
evaluation
written feedback loops
literature Policy
changes
Alternative
Purpose behavior

Model
Mental and
Structure
written
information
Parameter
Behavior
Miscellaneous
numerical data
Discrepancies
in behavior

Comparison of
Time-series model behavior
data and real-world
behavior

56
 empirical evidence

reference mode

dynamic hypothesis

structure validation behavior validation

comparison and comparison and

reconciliation reconciliation
computer
model simulation
(methodological: the procedures employed
to arrive to such knowledge claims)
policy design
57
 Tests for Building Confidence
Test of Model Structure in System Dynamics Model
(Forrester and Senge 1980, Richardson and Pugh 1981):
1. Structure Verification
(Is the model structure consistent with relevant descriptive knowledge of the system?)
2. Parameter Verification
(Are the parameters consistent with relevant descriptive [and numerical, when available]
knowledge of system?)
3. Extreme Conditions
(Does each equation make sense even when its inputs take on extreme values?)
4. Structure Boundary Adequacy
(Are the important concepts for addressing the problem endogenous of the model?)
5. Dimensional Consistency
(Is each equation dimensionally consistent without the use of parameters having no real-
world counterpart?)

58
 Test of Model Behavior
1. Behavior Reproduction
(Does the model endogenously generate the symptoms of the problem,
behavior modes, phasing, frequencies, and other characteristics of the
behavior of the real system?)
2. Behavior Anomaly
(Does anomalous behavior arise if an assumption of the model is deleted?)
3. Family Member
(Can the model reproduce the behavior of other examples of the systems
in the same class as the model?)
4. Surprise Behavior
(Does the model point to the existence of a previously unrecognized mode
of behavior in the real system?)

59
5. Extreme Policy
(Does the model behave properly when subjected to extreme policies
or test inputs?)
6. Behaviour Boundary Adequacy
(Is the behavior of the model sensitive to the addition or alteration of
structure to represent plausible alternative theories?)
7. Behaviour Sensitivity
(Is the behavior of the model sensitive to plausible variations in
parameters?)
8. Statistic Character
(Does the output of the model have the same statistical character as
the “output” of the real system?)

60
Test of Policy Implications
1. System Improvement
(Is the performance of the real system improved through use of the model?)

2. Behavior Prediction
(Does the model correctly describe the results of a new policy?)

3. Policy Boundary Adequacy

(Are the policy recommendations sensitive to the addition or alteration of
structure to represent plausible alternative theories?)

4. Policy Sensitivity
(Are the policy recommendations sensitive to plausible variations in
parameters?)
61
 E.
Tahapan Perancangan Kebijakan

62
 Perancangan Kebijakan
▪ Suatu prinsip dasar dalam proses analisis (perancangan)
kebijakan menggunakan metodologi system dynamics adalah
bahwa perilaku suatu fenomena (dunia nyata – real world)
dimunculkan (diakibatkan) oleh struktur (kebijakan-kebijakan)
fenomena tersebut.
▪ Perbaikan perilaku tersebut oleh karena itu memerlukan suatu
pemahaman tentang hubungan keterkaitan antara struktur,
kebijakan, dan perilaku.
▪ Pemahaman ini dapat diperoleh melalui eksperimen simulasi
kebijakan menggunakan suatu model untuk analisis kebijakan.
▪ Model simulasi ini diharapkan menjadi suatu wahana yang dapat
menemukan jalan dan cara yang efektif untuk mempengaruhi
fenomena tersebut sehingga kinerja (performance) fenomena
yang diinginkan dapat dicapai.
63
 Perancangan Kebijakan
Perancangan kebijakan menggunakan pendekatan model
system dynamics terdiri atas empat tahap utama sebagai
berikut ini.
1. Mengidentifikasi perilaku persoalan.
2. Membuat suatu model komputer berdasarkan hubungan-
hubungan sebab-akibat yang diyakini sebagai penyebab
perilaku tersebut (membuat CLD dan mengkonversikannya
menjadi flow diagram).
3. Mengembangkan suatu pemahaman tentang hubungan
antara struktur dan perilaku (eksperimen simulasi).
4. Merancang kebijakan untuk memperbaiki persoalan
(perilaku fenomena yang tidak diinginkan).

64
Population Collapse Model

65
Persoalan Population Collapse

66
 Causal loop diagram (CLD)

+
Birth rate [person/year] Population [person] Death rate [person/year]
- +

Resource demand
[resource unit/person/year]

Resource
Stress []
Degradation
[resource unit/year/year]

Resource capacity [resource unit/year]

-
67
 Flow diagram
Fractional birth
Fractional
rate
mortality rate

Population
Birth rate Mortality rate

Demand per
person
Demand
Birth multiplier Mortality multiplier

Stress
Fractional
Degradation degradation rate
multiplier

Tree
capacity
Degradation rate

68
 Population Collapse Equations

(01) Birth multiplier = WITH LOOKUP (Stress,

([(0,0)-(2,1)],(0,1),(1,1),(1.15,0.88),(1.25,0.7),(1.35,0.4),(1.5,0.2),(1.8,0.05),(2,0)))
Units: Dmnl

(02) Birth rate=Fractional birth rate*Population*Birth multiplier

Units: person/Year

(03) Degradation multiplier = WITH LOOKUP (Stress,

([(0,0)-(2,1)],(0,0),(1,0),(1.16208,0.0482456),(1.37003,0.140351),(1.52905
,0.29386),(1.70031,0.578947),(1.79205,0.798246),(1.87768,0.912281),(2,1) ))
Units: Dmnl

(04) Degradation rate=Fractional degradation rate*Tree capacity*Degradation multiplier

Units: trees/(Year*Year)

(05) Demand=Population*Demand per person

Units: trees/Year

(06) Demand per person=10

Units: trees/person/Year
69
(07) FINAL TIME = 500
Units: Year
The final time for the simulation.

(08) Fractional birth rate=0.02

Units: 1/Year

(09) Fractional degradation rate=0.1

Units: 1/Year

(10) Fractional mortality rate=0.01

Units: 1/Year

(11) INITIAL TIME = 0

Units: Year
The initial time for the simulation.

(12) Mortality multiplier = WITH LOOKUP (Stress,

([(0,1)-(2,5)],(0,1),(1,1),(1.19266,1.31579),(1.43731,2),(1.65138,2.82456)
,(1.82263,3.7193),(2,5) ))
Units: Dmnl

70
(13) Mortality rate=Fractional mortality rate*Population*Mortality multiplier
Units: person/Year

(14) Population= INTEG (Birth rate-Mortality rate,2000)

Units: person

(15) SAVEPER = TIME STEP

Units: Year [0,?]
The frequency with which output is stored.

(16) Stress=Demand/Tree capacity

Units: Dmnl

(17) TIME STEP = 0.125

Units: Year [0,?]
The time step for the simulation.

(18) Tree capacity= INTEG (-Degradation rate,100000)

Units: trees/Year

71
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Proceedings of the 1991 International System Dynamics Conference, Bangkok-Thailand, August 27-
30, 1991.
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Models”, TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences.
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The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
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