Apakah Sistem Dinamik itu?

 Sistem dinamik: Pemodelan dan simulasi komputer untuk

mempelajari dan mengelola sistem umpan balik yang
rumit (complex feedback systems), seperti bisnis, sistem
lingkungan, sistem sosial, dsb.
 Sistem:
– Kumpulan elemen yang saling berinteraksi, berfungsi bersama
untuk tujuan tertentu.
– Umpan balik menjadi sangat penting
 Masalah dinamik
– Mengandung jumlah (kuantitas) yang selalu bervariasi
– Variasi dapat dijelaskan dalam hubungan sebab akibat
– Hubungan sebab akibat dapat terjadi dalam sistem tertutup yang
mengandung lingkaran umpan balik (feedback loops)
Sejarah

 Cybernetics (Wiener, 1948): studi yang mempelajari

bagaimana sistem biologi, rekayasa, sosial, dan
ekonomi dikendalikan dan diatur
 Industrial Dynamics (Forrester, 1961): mengaplikasikan
prinsip “cybernetics” ke dalam sistem industri
 System Dynamics: karya Forrester semakin meluas
meliputi sistem sosial dan ekonomi
 Dengan perkembangan komputer yang sangat cepat,
Sistem Dinamik menyediakan kerangka kerja dalam
menyelesaikan permasalahan sistem sosial dan
ekonomi
Tahap Pemodelan Sistem Dinamik

1. Identifikasi masalah
2. Membangun hipotesis dinamik yang menjelaskan
hubungan sebab akibat dari masalah termaksud
3. Membuat struktur dasar grafik sebab akibat
4. Melengkapi grafik sebab akibat dengan informasi
5. Mengubah grafik sebab akibat yang telah dilengkapi
menjadi grafik alir Sistem Dinamik
6. Menyalin grafik alir Sistem Dinamik kedalam program
DYNAMO, Stella, Vensim, Powersim, atau persamaan
matematika
Aspek Penting

 Berfikir dalam terminologi hubungan sebab

akibat
 Fokus pada keterkaitan umpan balik (feedback
linkages) diantara komponen-komponen sistem
 Membuat batasan sistem untuk menentukan
komponen yang masuk dan tidak di dalam sistem
Hubungan Sebab Akibat

 Berfikir sebab akibat adalah kunci dalam mengorganisir

ide-ide dalam studi Sistem Dinamik
 Gunakan kata `menyebabkan` atau `mempengaruhi`
untuk menjelaskan hubungan antar komponen di
dalam sistem
 Contoh yang logis (misalnya hukum fisika)
– makan berat bertambah
– api  asap
 Contoh yang tidak logis (sosiologi, ekonomi)
– Pakai sabuk pengaman  mengurangi korban fatal
dalam kecelakaan lalu lintas
Umpan balik (Feedback)

 Berfikir sebab akibat saja tidak cukup

 Umpan balik: untuk mengatur/ mengendalikan
sistem, yaitu berupa suatu sebab yang terlibat
dalam sistem namun dapat mempengaruhi
dirinya sendiri
 Umpan balik sangat penting dalam studi Sistem
Dinamik
Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)

CLD menunjukkan struktur umpan balik dari sistem

 Gaji VS Kinerja  Lelah VS Tidur
– Gaji  Kinerja  Lelah  tidur
– Kinerja  Gaji  Tidur  lelah ?

Gaji Kinerja Lelah Tidur

Penanda CLD

+ : jika penyebab naik, akibat akan naik (pertumbuhan, penguatan),

jika penyebab turun, akibat akan turun

- : jika penyebab naik, akibat akan turun, jika penyebab turun, akibat
akan naik
+ +

Gaji Kinerja Lelah Tidur

+ -
Pemahaman “Sebab” – “Akibat”

Sales are poor

Sales force is weak

Overworked

Number is limited
Augmenting CLD 2 - (Determining Loop
Polarity)

 Positive feedback (reinforcing) loops

– Have an even number of ‘–’ signs
– Some quantity increase, a “snowball” effect takes over and that
quantity continues to increase
– The “snowball” effect can also work in reverse
– Generate behaviors of growth, amplify, deviation, and reinforce
– Notation: place + symbol in the center of the loop
 Negative feedback (balancing) loops
– Have an odd number of “–” signs
– Tend to produce “stable”, “balance”, “equilibrium” and “goal-
seeking” behavior over time
– Notation: place - symbol in the center of the loop
Positive/Reinforcing Loops

 Accelerating growth or accelerating

decline
Positive/Reinforcing Loops

 Salary  Performance, Performance  Salary

The more salary I get

The better I perform +
The better I perform Salary + Performance
The more salary I get
+
The more salary I get
The better I perform
Negative /Balancing Loop

 Tired  Sleep, Sleep  Tired

The more I sleep The less tired I am

The more tired I am The less tired I am

The more I sleep The less I sleep

The less I sleep The more tired I am

+

Tired - Sleep

-
Balancing Loops

Body Temperature

Desired Body
Adjust Clothing Temperature

Temperature Gap
Balancing Loops

 System reverts to status quo

 The goals are implicit
Loop Dominance

 There are systems which have more than one

feedback loop within them
 The dominating loop might shift over time
 When a feedback loop is within another, one loop
must dominate
 Stable conditions will exist when negative loops
dominate positive loops
Combined Feedback Loops
(Case of Population Growth)

+ +

Birth rate + Polulation - Death rate

+ -
Exogenous Items
 Items that affect other items in the system but are not
themselves affected by anything in the system
 Arrows are drawn from these items but there are no
arrows drawn to these items

+
Sunlight reaching - Density of plants
each plant

Sunlight
-
+
Delays: The Sluggish Shower

Current Water
Temperature Desired Water
Temperature

Shower Tap
Setting Temperature
Gap
Delays

 When you tell the story add the word

“eventually”
 Cause the system to overshoot the target
Delays

 Systems often respond sluggishly

 From the example below, once the trees are planted,
the harvest rate can be ‘0’ until the trees grow enough
to harvest

delay
+

# of growing trees - Harvest rate

Planting rate -
+
System Thinking

System Structure

Pattern of Behaviour

Events
Basic System Behaviors

Exponential Growth S-shaped Growth

Goal Seeking S-shaped Growth with Overshoot

Oscillation Overshoot and Collapse

 Exponential Growth

Positive feedback loops generate growth, amplify deviations,

and reinforce change. An initial quantity of something
starts to grow, and the rate of growth increases.

Syste m Le ve l

In flow

Net increase rate

Goal Seeking

Negative feedback loops seek balance, equilibrium, and

static. The quantity of interest starts either above or
below a goal level and over time moves toward the goal.

Syste m Le ve l
Corrective Action

Discrepa ncy

Rate of cha nge Goal

 Oscillation

Time delays cause the state of system to constantly

overshoots its goal or equilibrium state, reverses, then
undershoots, and so on. the quantity of interest fluctuates
around some level.
Syste m Le ve l
Corrective Action

Perception

Discrepa ncy Perception De lay

Rate of cha nge Goal

S-shaped Growth

No real quantity can grow or decline forever, eventually one or

more constraints halt the growth. Initial exponential growth is
followed by goal-seeking behavior which results in the
variable leveling o°.

Syste m Le ve l
Net Increase Rate

Reso urce Ade quacy

Norma l Growth Ra te Carrying Capacity

S-Shaped Growth with Overshoot

Time delays in lead to the possibility that the state

of the system will overshoot and oscillate around
the carrying capacity.

Syste m Le ve l
Net Increase Rate

Reso urce Ade quacy

Dela ye d Reso urce Effe ct

Norma l Growth Ra te Carrying Capacity

 Overshoot and Collapse

The ability of the environment to support a growing

population is eroded or consumed by the population
itself.
Cons umption rate

Carrying Capacity

Eros ion of Carryin g Capa city

Syste m Le ve l
Net Increase Rate

Norma l Growth Ra te Reso urce Ade quacy

Stock & Flow Diagram
Stock & Flow Diagram

 Three different types of elements are (i)

stock/level/accumulation, (ii) flow/rate, and (iii)
information
 The stock and flow diagram shows relationships
among variables which have the potential to
change over time (time based variables)
 Unlike a causal loop diagram, a stock and flow
diagram distinguishes between different types
of variables
Stock & Flow Diagram

 A stock is an accumulation of something (as

representing physical entities/elements/units),
“state variable”  rectangular box
 A flow is the movement of the “something" from one
stock to another  double line arrow
 Rate of flow is controlled by “valve”
 Information is symbolized by an “arrow”
 Example : the money is a stock, and the transfer
operation for the money is a flow
Types of Stock & Flow

 Materials : this includes all stocks and flows of

physical goods which are part of a production and
distribution process, whether raw materials, in-
process inventories, or finished products.
 Personnel : this generally refers to actual people,
for example; hours of labour.
 Capital equipment : this includes such things as
factory space, tools, and other equipment
necessary for the production of goods and
provision of services.
Types of Stock & Flow

 Orders : this includes such things as orders for

goods, requisitions for new employees, and
contracts for new space or capital equipment.
Orders are typically the result of some
management decision which has been made,
but not yet converted into the desired result.
 Money: this is used in the cash sense. That is, a
flow of money is the actual transmittal of
payments between different stocks of money.