PROYEKSI PENDUDUK
Jumlah Kepadatan
Pendudu
Wilayah
Penduduk
k
(km2)
(jiwa) (jiwa/km2)
60.14 114704 1907.283
62.59 115643 1847.627
62.59 116210 1856.686
62.59 116292 1857.996
67.53 134312 1988.923
67.53 142083 2103.998
67.53 147127 2178.691
Tahun
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Pn = P0 + r( Tn T0 )
r = P2 P1
dengan Pn = jumlah penduduk tahun ke-n
P0 = jumlah penduduk awal
r
A-1
Proyeksi Penduduk
Penduduk
(P)
114704
115643
116210
116292
134312
142083
147127
126624.43
Kenaikan
939
567
82
18020
7771
5044
Proyeksi
114704
120107.83
125511.67
130915.5
136319.33
141723.17
147127
5403.83
r = 5403.83
Pr = 126624.43
Tabel A.3 Perhitungan Korelasi dan Standar Deviasi Metode Aritmatika
Tahun
Pn
1996
114704
120107.8
3
125511.6
7
1997
1998
1999
2001
130915.5
136319.3
3
141723.1
7
2002
147127
2000
r2 =
(P-Pr) 2
142096617.3
3
120591773.4
7
108460322.4
7
106759080.1
8
59098754.47
238967430.6
1
420355435.1
8
1196329413.
71
(P-Pn) 2
(Pn-P)2
0.00
19934736.6
9
86521002.7
8
213846752.
25
0.00
19934736.6
9
86521002.7
8
213846752.
25
4029387.11
4029387.11
129480.03
129480.03
0.00
324461358.
86
0.00
324461358.
86
.71 324461358
.86
(Pn Pr ) (Pn P) = 1196329413
= 0.729
2
1196329413
.71
(Pn Pr )
2
r = 0.854
(P P) 2 (P P) 2 / n
n
n
STD =
1
2
.86 (324461358
.86/ 7)
324461358
=
1
2
A-2
= 6303.17
Proyeksi Penduduk
150000
140000
130000
120000
110000
100000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Tahun
Pn = P0 (1 + r )
r=
P2 P1
P1
n = jangka waktu
Tabel A.4 Proyeksi Penduduk Metode Geometrik
Tahun
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Ratarata
Penduduk
(P)
114704
115643
116210
116292
134312
142083
147127
126624.43
Kenaikan
0.008186
0.004903
0.000706
0.154955
0.057858
0.035500
0.04368464
9
Proyeksi
114704.00
119714.80
124944.50
130402.66
136099.25
142044.70
148249.88
r = 0.044
Pr = 126624.43
A-3
Proyeksi Penduduk
Pn
114704.0
0
119714.8
0
124944.5
0
130402.6
6
136099.2
5
142044.7
0
148249.8
8
(P-Pr)2
142096617.3
3
120591773.4
7
108460322.4
7
106759080.1
8
(P-Pn)2
0.00
16579588.1
1
76291547.7
1
199110729.
08
59098754.47
3194279.09
16579588.1
1
76291547.7
1
199110729.
1
3194279.08
6
1466.67113
8
1260850.31
9
296438460.
97
238967430.6
1
420355435.1
8
1196329413.
71
(Pn-P)2
1466.67
1260850.32
296438460.
97
.71 296438460
.97
(Pn Pr ) (Pn P) = 1196329413
r =
= 0.752
2
1196329413
.71
(Pn Pr )
2
r = 0.867
(P P ) 2 (P P ) 2 / n
n
n
STD =
1
2
.97 (296438460
.97 / 7)
296438460
=
150000
140000
130000
120000
110000
100000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Tahun
A-4
1
2
= 6024.83
Proyeksi Penduduk
y = a + bx
a=
b=
y x2 x( xy)
2
N x2 ( x)
N ( xy) x y
N x2 ( x)
Penduduk
1996
114704
1997
115643
1998
116210
1999
116292
2000
134312
2001
142083
2002
147127
126624.42
86
a=
b=
28
y
11470
4
11564
3
11621
0
11629
2
13431
2
14208
3
14712
7
88637
1
x2
xy
1
114704
231286
348630
16
465168
25
671560
36
852498
49
1029889
140
3713735
Proyeksi
108597.5
4
114606.5
120615.4
6
126624.4
3
132633.3
9
138642.3
6
144651.3
2
)
y x2 x ( xy) = (886371 140) (28 3713735
= 102588
.57
2
2
2
140 (28)
N x ( x)
N ( xy) x y
N x ( x)
2
(7 3713735
) (28 886371
)
(7 140) (28) 2
= 6008.96
Pn
108597.5
4
114606.5
120615.4
6
126624.4
3
132633.3
9
138642.3
6
144651.3
2
(P-Pr)2
142096617.
3
120591773.
5
108460322.
5
106759080.
2
59098754.4
7
238967430.
6
420355435.
2
(P-Pn)2
37288906.0
7
1074332.25
19408115.5
7
106759080.
2
2817721.94
11838023.2
7
6128984.38
9
(Pn-P)2
37288906.
07
1074332.2
5
19408115.
57
106759080
.2
2817721.9
4
11838023.
27
6128984.3
89
A-5
Proyeksi Penduduk
119632941
4
r2 =
185315163.
7
185315163
.7
.71 185315163
.7
(Pn Pr ) (Pn P) = 1196329413
= 0.845
2
1196329413
.71
(Pn Pr )
2
r = 0.919
(P P) 2 (P P) 2 / n
n
n
STD =
1
2
.7 (185315163
.7 / 7)
185315163
=
1
2
= 4763.58
150000
140000
130000
120000
110000
100000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Tahun
1
ln a = ( ln y bx)
N
b=
N ( x ln y) ( x lny)
N x2 ( x)
Penduduk
1996
1997
114704
115643
x2
x
1
2
1
4
y
11470
4
11564
ln y
11.6501
10
11.6582
x ln y
11.6501
10
23.3165
Proyeksi
109550.
37
114770.
A-6
Proyeksi Penduduk
1998
116210
1999
116292
16
2000
134312
25
2001
142083
36
2002
147127
126624.4
3
49
28
140
b=
N ( x ln y) ( x lny)
N x2 ( x)
3
11621
0
11629
2
13431
2
14208
3
14712
7
63
11.6631
54
11.6638
59
11.8079
21
11.8641
67
11.8990
51
82.2065
26
26
34.9894
63
46.6554
38
59.0396
04
71.185
83.2933
6
330.129
5
48
120239.
34
125968.
78
131971.
24
138259.
72
144847.
85
= 0.046
1
1
ln a = ( ln y b x) = (82.206526 (0.046 28)) = 11.56
N
7
a = 104567.68
Persamaan : y = 104567.68e0.046x
Tabel A.9 Perhitungan Korelasi dan Standar Deviasi Metode Eksponensial
Tahun
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
r2 =
Pn
109550.3
7
114770.4
8
120239.3
4
125968.7
8
131971.2
4
138259.7
2
144847.8
5
(P-Pr)2
142096617.
3
120591773.
5
108460322.
5
106759080.
2
59098754.4
7
238967430.
6
420355435.
2
119632941
4
(P-Pn)2
26559939.3
4
761289.136
16235550.8
5
93640155.0
9
5479144.85
2
14617467.3
9
5194541.85
9
162488088.
5
(Pn-P)2
26559939.
34
761289.13
6
16235550.
85
93640155.
09
5479144.8
52
14617467.
39
5194541.8
59
162488088
.5
.71 162488088
.5
(Pn Pr ) (Pn P) = 1196329413
= 0.864
2
1196329413
.71
(Pn Pr )
2
r = 0.930
( P P) 2 ( P P ) 2 / n
n
n
STD =
1
2
.5 (162488088
.5 / 7)
162488088
=
1
2
A-7
= 4460.55
Proyeksi Penduduk
150000
140000
130000
120000
110000
100000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Tahun
1
[y b(lnx)]
N
a=
b=
N ( y ln x) y ln x
N (ln x) ( ln x)
2
Penduduk
1996
114704
1997
115643
1998
116210
1999
116292
2000
134312
2001
142083
2002
147127
y
11470
4
11564
3
11621
0
11629
2
13431
2
14208
3
14712
7
88637
1
ln x
(ln x)2
y ln x
0
0.693147
18
1.098612
29
1.386294
36
1.609437
91
1.791759
47
1.945910
15
8.525161
36
0
0.48045
30
1.20694
89
1.92181
21
2.59029
04
3.21040
2
3.78656
63
13.1964
73
0
80157.6
2
127669.
73
161214.
94
216166.
83
254578.
56
286295.
92
1126083
.6
Proyeksi
106459.
53
117936.
23
124649.
67
129412.
93
133107.
60
136126.
36
138678.
70
A-8
Proyeksi Penduduk
b=
a=
N ( y ln x) y ln x
N ( ln x) ( ln x)
2
(7 1126083
.6) (886371 8.52516136
)
(7 13.196473
) (8.52516136
)2
= 16557.37
1
[ y b (ln x)] = 1 [886371 (16557.37 8.52516136
)] = 106459
.53
N
7
Pn
106459.53
36
117936.22
91
124649.66
55
129412.92
45
133107.59
52
136126.36
1
138678.69
11
(P-Pr)2
142096617.
3
120591773.
5
108460322.
5
106759080.
2
59098754.4
7
238967430.
6
420355435.
2
119632941
4
(P-Pn)2
67971225.7
8
5258899.56
5
71227954.3
5
(Pn-P)2
67971225.
78
5258899.5
65
71227954.
35
172158660
1450590.89
5
35481548.4
4
71373923.8
4
424922802.
9
172158660
1450590.8
95
35481548.
44
71373923.
84
424922802
.9
.71 424922802
.9
(Pn Pr ) (Pn P) = 1196329413
r =
= 0.645
2
1196329413
.71
(Pn Pr )
2
r = 0.803
(P P) 2 (P P) 2 / n
n
n
STD =
1
2
.9 (424922802
.9 / 7)
424922802
=
1
2
A-9
= 7213.28
Proyeksi Penduduk
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Tahun
Aritmati
ka
114704
120108
125512
130916
136319
141723
147127
0.729
0.854
6303.17
Geometri
k
114704
119715
124945
130403
136099
142045
148250
0.752
0.867
6024.83
Linear
108598
114607
120615
126624
132633
138642
144651
0.845
0.919
4763.58
Eksponensi
al
109550
114770
120239
125969
131971
138260
144848
0.864
0.930
4460.55
Logaritmi
k
106460
117936
124650
129413
133108
136126
138679
0.645
0.803
7213.28
A-10
Proyeksi Penduduk
Aritmati
ka
114704
120108
125512
130916
136319
141723
147127
152531
157935
163339
168742
174146
179550
184954
190358
195762
201165
206569
211973
217377
222781
228185
233588
238992
244396
249800
255204
260608
Geometri
k
114704
119715
124945
130403
136099
142045
148250
154726
161485
168540
175902
183587
191606
199977
208713
217830
227346
237278
247643
258461
269752
281536
293835
306671
320068
334050
348642
363873
Eksponensi
al
109550
114770
120239
125969
131971
138260
144848
151750
158981
166556
174493
182807
191518
200644
210205
220221
230715
241709
253226
265292
277934
291177
305052
319588
334816
350770
367485
384996
Linear
108598
114607
120615
126624
132633
138642
144651
150660
156669
162678
168687
174696
180705
186714
192723
198732
204741
210750
216759
222768
228777
234786
240795
246804
252813
258822
264831
270840
Logaritmi
k
106460
117936
124650
129413
133108
136126
138679
140890
142840
144584
146162
147603
148928
150155
151298
152366
153370
154316
155212
156061
156869
157639
158375
159080
159756
160405
161030
161632
Proyeksi Penduduk
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Tahun
Aritmatika
Geometrik
Regresi Linear
Eksponensial
Logaritmik
A-11