Time Series Book Cover
Time Series Book Cover
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Analisis
Deret Waktu
Teori dan Aplikasi
Penyunting:
H. Muhammad Arif Tiro
B.A., Drs., M.Pd., M.Sc., Ph.D., Prof.
i
ii
Aswi
Sukarna
Analisis
Deret Waktu
Teori dan Aplikasi
Penyunting:
H. Muhammad Arif Tiro
B.A., Drs., M.Pd., M.Sc., Ph.D., Prof.
_________________________________________________
Diterbitkan oleh : Andira Publisher, Makassar.
Jalan Sultan Alauddin III/3/8 Makassar 90221
Telepon/fax (0411) 864883
303 hlm; 21 cm
Bibliografi: hlm. 267
Indeks.
ISBN 979-3980-05-2
iii
iv
Dari Penerbit
Andira Publisher
v
vi
Kata Pengantar
ix
DAFTAR ISI
Halaman Judul ................................................................... i
Dari Penerbit ..................................................................... iii
Kata Pengantar ................................................................. v
Daftar Isi ............................................................................ viii
x
BAB 2 Model Deret Waktu
Stasioner ................................ 29
A. Model Proses Linier Umum ...................................... 29
B. Proses Autoregressive (AR) ....................................... 35
1. Autoregressive Orde 1, AR(1) atau ARIMA(1,0,0) 38
2. Autoregresive Orde 2, AR(2) atau Model
ARIMA(2,0,0) ........................................................ 46
C. Proses Moving Average (MA) ................................... 56
1. Moving Average Orde 1, MA(1) atau Model
ARIMA(0,0,1) ........................................................ 57
2. Moving Average Orde 2, MA(2) atau
ARIMA(0,0,2) ........................................................ 63
D. Proses Autoregressive Moving Average ARMA(p,q) 71
1. Proses Campuran ARMA(p,q) ............................ 71
2. Proses Autoregressive Moving Average,
ARMA(1,1) ............................................................. 73
Soal Latihan ........................................................................ 80
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xii
Lampiran
Lampiran 1.1 : Tabel Distribusi Normal Baku ............. 269
Lampiran 1.2 : Tabel Distribusi Student t ..................... 279
Lampiran 1.3 : Tabel Distribusi Chi-Kuadrat ................ 283
Lampiran 2.1 : Data pengangguran wanita usia 16 s.d. 19
tahun di Amerika Serikat ....................... 289
Lampiran 2.2 : Data rata-rata temperatur di Iowa ......... 291
Lampiran 2.3 : Data penjualan industri ........................... 293
Lampiran 2.4 : Data airline ............................................... 295
Lampiran 3 : Daftar Singkatan dan Simbol .................. 297
Indeks ................................................................................. 299
xiii
Daftar Pustaka
Bowerman, B.L. & O’Connell, R.T., 1993. Forecasting and Time
Series : An Applied Approach, 3rd Edition, Miami University,
Ohio : Duxbury Press.
Box, G.E.P & Cox, D.R., 1964. An Analysis of
Transformations. Journal Royal Stat. Soc., ser. B., 26, hal. 211
– 252.
Box, G.E.P & Jenkins, G.M., 1976. Time Series Analysis
Forecasting and Control, 2nd Edition, San Francisco: Holden-
Day.
Cryer, J.D., 1986. Time Series Analysis, Massachusetts : PWS
Publishers.
Durbin, J., 1960. The Fitting of Time Series Models, Review of
The Institute of International Statistics, 28, hal. 233 – 244.
Fan, J. & Yao, Q., 2003. Non Linear Time Series: nonparametric and
parametric methods, New York, USA : Springer-Verlag.
Hamilton, J.D., 1994. Time Series Analysis, New Jersey :
Princeton University Press.
Hanke, J.E., Reitsch, A.G., & Wichern, D.W., 2001. Business
Forecasting, 7th Edition, Singapore: Prentice-Hall.
Herlinawati, 2005, Analisis Runtun Waktu dengan
Menggunakan Metode Box-Jenkins (Studi Kajian
Estimasi Penjualan Voucher di Koperasi Telkomsel
Komwil IV Sulmalirja), Skripsi, Makassar: Jurusan
Matematika FMIPA Universitas Negeri Makassar.
Iriawan, N. & Astuti, S.P., 2006. Mengolah Data Statistika dengan
Mudah Menggunakan Minitab 14, Yogyakarta: Andi.
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