Risk Management
Implementation
Apakah risiko itu?
Focus to What Matter
Decision Problem
Uncertainties
Decision Risks
Uncertainties
Prinsip Manajemen Risiko Kerangka Kerja Manajemen Risiko Proses Manajemen Risiko
5
Arti Risiko
Definisi Risiko menurut SNI ISO 31000
Penyimpangan
Satu titik yang
dari yang
ingin dicapai
diharapkan
Risiko
= Efek dari ketidakpastian pada sasaran
Suatu keadaan
yang tidak bisa
ditentukan
Sasaran
Board of Directors
Corporate Risks
General Managers
Divisions Risks
Managers
Departments Risks
General Managers
Divisions Risks
Root Cause and Risk Ownership
Lack of Lack of Sort of Buyer Reduced
Communication Raw Materials Production Complaint Order
Risk Potential Impact – If there’s no Action
Risk
Universe
Performance
Risk
Tolerance
Risk
Appetite
t0 Time t1
10
Likely certain
Almost Setting Your Risk Appetite ?
5
5 10 15 20 25
4
Likelihood
4 8 12 16 20
Unlikely Possible
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
Consequence
Likely certain
Almost Setting Your Risk Appetite ?
5
5 10 15 20 25
4
Likelihood
4 8 12 16 20
Unlikely Possible
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
Consequence
Risk Criteria to Risk Matrix
Risk Matrix :
Likelihood Impact
3 3
Medium High
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
13
Menetapkan Konteks
Matriks Risiko : Kemungkinan
Probability of
Likelihood Rating
Risk Occurrence
Probability
Almost never (1) < 20 %
Time Scope
14
Menetapkan Konteks
Matriks Risiko : Kemungkinan
Numberof Risk
Likelihood Rating Occurrence
Probability In a given time : Month
Almost never (1) < 0,01% = 5 Times
15
Menetapkan Konteks
Matriks Risiko : Dampak
Risk Management Process
Effect of uncertainty on objectives
WSBP’s
Vision Company’s Business
General
WSBP’s Process
Directors and Managers
Managers Staff
Activities
Mission
1. Event 1 :
1.1 Risk X
1.2 Risk Y
2. Event 2 :
2.1 Risk Z
2.2 Risk Q
3. ……..
Risk Management Process
Before event After event
Likelihood Event ! Consequence
Process
Risks
Frequency/Probability/ etc Finance/Operational/ etc
Risk Criteria
Risk Parameters
Inherent Risk
List of Controls: List of Controls:
1. Control A Risk Tolerance 1. Control D
2. Control B & 2. Control E
3. Control C Risk Appetite 3. Control F
4. … 4. …
Residual Risk
Mitigation on Mitigation on
Likelihood Consequence
1. Plan W No Acceptable? No 1. Plan Y
2. Plan X 2. Plan Z
(What-When-Cost-Who) (What-When-Cost-Who)
Expected Risk
Sample of Risk Matrix of Major Risks
Likely certain
Almost - Inherent
- After-Control
After Control Risk
Activities & -Mitigation
Activities - -
1
5
Supplementary
Issue 5
Issue
10
Issue
15
Unacceptable
20
Unacceptable
25
1. Risk A
4 44 2. Risk B
3 2
5 55 3. Risk C
4
4 Issue 8 12 16 20
5. Risk E
Unlikely Possible
3 2 1
3
1 2 3 4 5
Consequence
Alur Pelaporan Risk Management
Risk by
Departemen/SPI/Sekper Business Process
Procurement Procurement 2 PR Verification 13 Verified unqualified PR 1 Lack of skill & experience People Project Deviation- 3 2 6 1 WI PR Verification Good Formal 1 2 2
(Check & Verify PR up to send Schedule
(PR Verification verified doc. to Vendor Sourcing 2 Negligence / human error People 2 Review & doublecheck by superior (Procurement Good Formal
Section) section) Officer )
3 Overload activities within 1(one) staff People
Procurement 3a Vendor Sourcing 15 No Bidder(s) / sufficient bidder number to 1 Vendor not interested on RFQ / Invitation to Bid People Project Deviation- 3 2 6 1 Availibility of Standard TOR Good Formal 2 2 4 1 Inprovement & socialization standard 1 2 2
(Vendor Source in masterfile up to submit their quoation/bid. Document(s) Schedule TOR
(Vendor send prepare list of proposed 2 Sourcing of unqualified bidder(s) People 2 Confirmation on RFQ reception and Excellent Formal 2 Develop procedure on limitation
Sourcing vendor to Evaluation Tea completeness number of unparticipation (e.g ignored
Section) a. Normal Direct 3 Inviting wrong vendor (bidang) People 3 Reminder vendor to submit bid document(s)/ Good Informal 2 invitation in a row)
b. Urgent quotation before due date
c. Quotation 4 Invitation(s) is not received by bidder(s) Technology
d.Close Tender
18 Unfair competition 1 Prospective bidder(s) is come from one External Financial Consequence 5 1 5 1 Existence of GCG awareness / manual Good Formal 3 1 3 1 Religious / Moral Recitation, Lecture Cause 3 1 3
ownership
2 Morale Hazard (-->fraud, code of conduct) People 2 PQ Evaluation Good Formal
3 Internal Audit Good Formal
19 Delay in vendor sourcing 1 Incomplete PQ Data (Vendor Master List) People Project Deviation- 3 2 6 1 Procurement Procedure Good Formal 2 2 4 1 Optimalize PQ Process Cause 1 1 1
2 Lack of competency from Procurement personel People Schedule 2 Training / Workshop/ seminar Good Formal
Tender 3b Vendor Sourcing 20 Not obtain minimum number of potential 1 Information is not effective due to duration of Procedure Project Deviation- 3 2 6 1 Inform potential bidder by phone Good Informal 2 2 4 1 Improvement materi iklan Cause 1 1 1
Committee e. Open Tender bidder (min. 3 bidders) announcement is too short Schedule
Delay in vendor sourcing 2 Advertisment material is not clear for potential People 2 Cross check to media Good Informal 2 Propose additional budget for Cause
bidders advertisement to user
3 Budget constraint
4 Not obtain minimum number of potential bidder Procedure
(min. 3 bidders)
Procurement 4a Evaluation 21 Fraud 1 Moral Hazard (-->fraud, code of conduct) People Project Deviation-Cost 5 3 15 1 Review by superior Good Formal 2 3 6 1 Religious / Moral Recitation, Lecture Cause 2 3 6
(Evaluation a. Normal Direct Unfair competition 2 Unclear procurement Procedure Procedure 2 GCG awarenss / manual Good Formal
Section) 3 Conflict of interest People 3 Internal audit Good Formal
22 Specification of Quotation offerred is not 1 Unclear/missleading TOR People Project Deviation- 3 2 6 1 Review by superior Good Formal 2 2 4 1 Improvement & socialization of TOR Process 1 1 1
match with Purchase Requested. Quality
2 Coordination Good Formal 2 Advance training Cause
3 TOR standarization Good Formal
4 Training, workshop Good Formal
23 Unqualified winner 1 Unclear/misleading TOR People Project Deviation- 3 3 9 1 Review by superior Good Formal 2 3 6 1 Improvement & socialization of TOR Process 1 2 2
2 Lack of skill & experience People Quality 2 Training, workshop Good Formal 2 Advance training Process
3 Morale hazard People 3 TOR standarization Good Formal
4 False information / data from vendor External 4 Cross check / confirmation data / information Good Formal
5 GCG manual Good Formal
24 Unsuccessfull procurement process with 1 The non-existence of qualified bidder External Project Deviation- 3 2 6 1 PQ Good Formal 2 2 4 1 Optimising PQ Process 1 1 1
no winner Schedule
2 Unclear/misleading TOR People 2 TOR standarization Good Formal 2 Improvement & socialization of TOR Cause
3 Missmatch of estimation price People 3 Training, benchmark by user Good Formal
4 Improper bidder invitation People 4 vendor master list Good Formal
5 Internal Decision People 5 Review by superior Good Formal
25 Delay or fail of procurement process (takes 1 Interference of other parties (internal/external) People Performance Deviation 3 2 6 1 TOR standarization Good Formal 1 2 2 1 Improvement & socialization of TOR Cause 1 1 1
longer than agreed service standard)
1 2
5 3 4
Thank You