Pertemuan 4-1
Statistical Inference
Inferensia statistik adalah proses di mana kita
mendapatkan informasi dan menarik kesimpulan
tentang populasi dari sampel
Statistics
Data Information
Population
Supaya dapat
melakukan inferensia, Sample
Pertemuan 4-3
Estimation
1. Estimator Titik
2. Estimator Interval
Pertemuan 4-4
Estimasi Titik dan Interval
Lower Upper
Confidence Confidence
Point Estimate Limit
Limit
Width of
confidence interval
Pertemuan 4-5
Estimasi Titik
Mean μ x
Proportion p p
Pertemuan 4-6
Estimasi Titik
Suatu estimator titik menarik kesimpulan tentang populasi
dengan mengestimasi nilai parameter yang tidak diketahui
dengan menggunakan suatu nilai tunggal atau titik.
Pertemuan 4-7
Formula Umum
Pertemuan 4-8
Confidence Intervals
Confidence
Intervals
Population Population
Mean Proportion
σ Known σ Unknown
Pertemuan 4-9
Confidence Interval for μ
(σ Known)
Assumptions
Population standard deviation σ is known
σ
x z α/2
n
Chap 7-10
Finding the Critical Value
Consider a 95% confidence interval: z α/2 1.96
1 .95
α α
.025 .025
2 2
/2 1 /2
x
Intervals μx μ
extend from x1
σ x2 100(1-)%
x z /2 of intervals
n
to constructed
σ contain μ;
x z /2
n 100% do not.
Confidence Intervals Chap 7-13
Contoh
Chap 7-14
Contoh
(continued)
Sampel 11 sirkuit dari populasi normal yang
besar memiliki rata-rata ketahanan 2,20 ohm.
Dari pengujian terakhir diketahui bahwa
standar deviasi populasi adalah 0,35 ohm.
σ
Solution: x z /2
n
Chap 7-16
Confidence Intervals
Confidence
Intervals
Population Population
Mean Proportion
σ Known σ Unknown
Chap 7-17
Confidence Interval for μ
(σ Unknown)
Chap 7-18
Confidence Interval for μ
(σ Unknown)
(continued)
Assumptions
Population standard deviation is unknown
Population is normally distributed
If population is not normal, use large sample
Use Student’s t Distribution
Confidence Interval Estimate
s
x t /2
n
Chap 7-19
Student’s t Distribution
d.f. = n - 1
Chap 7-20
Degrees of Freedom (df)
Idea: Number of observations that are free to vary
after sample mean has been calculated
Example: Suppose the mean of 3 numbers is 8.0
Let x1 = 7
If the mean of these three
Let x2 = 8
values is 8.0,
What is x3? then x3 must be 9
(i.e., x3 is not free to vary)
Here, n = 3, so degrees of freedom = n -1 = 3 – 1 = 2
(2 values can be any numbers, but the third is not free to vary
for a given mean)
Chap 7-21
Student’s t Distribution
Note: t z as n increases
Standard
Normal
(t with df = )
t (df = 13)
t-distributions are bell-
shaped and symmetric, but
have ‘fatter’ tails than the t (df = 5)
normal
0 t
Chap 7-22
Student’s t Table
Confidence t t t z
Level (10 d.f.) (20 d.f.) (30 d.f.) ____
Note: t z as n increases
Chap 7-24
Example
A random sample of n = 25 has x = 50 and
s = 8. Form a 95% confidence interval for μ
Chap 7-25
Approximation for Large Samples
Technically Approximation
correct for large n
s s
x t /2 x z /2
n n
Chap 7-26
Determining Sample Size
The required sample size can be found to
reach a desired margin of error (e) and
level of confidence (1 - )
2
σ z /2 σ
2 2
z
n /2
e
2
e
Chap 7-27
Required Sample Size Example
If = 45, what sample size is needed to be
90% confident of being correct within ± 5?
2 2
z /2 σ 1.645(45)
n 219.19
e 5
Confidence
Intervals
Population Population
Mean Proportion
σ Known σ Unknown
Chap 7-29
Confidence Intervals for the
Population Proportion, p
Chap 7-30
Confidence Intervals for the
Population Proportion, p
(continued)
Recall that the distribution of the sample
proportion is approximately normal if the
sample size is large, with standard deviation
p(1 p)
σp
n
We will estimate this with sample data:
ˆ p)
p(1 ˆ
s pˆ
n
Chap 7-31
Confidence interval endpoints
Upper and lower confidence limits for the
population proportion are calculated with the
formula
pˆ (1 pˆ )
pˆ z /2
n
where
z is the standard normal value for the level of confidence desired
p is the sample proportion
n is the sample size
Chap 7-32
Contoh
Chap 7-33
Contoh
(continued)
A random sample of 100 people shows
that 25 are left-handed. Form a 95%
confidence interval for the true proportion
of left-handers.
1. pˆ 25/100 0.25
2. S pˆ pˆ (1 pˆ )/n 0.25(0.75)/n 0.0433
Chap 7-35
Changing the sample size
Example:
If the sample size in the above example is
doubled to 200, and if 50 are left-handed in the
sample, then the interval is still centered at .25,
but the width shrinks to
.19 …… .31
Chap 7-36
Finding the Required Sample Size
for proportion problems
Define the p(1 p)
margin of error: e z/2
n
z 2
p (1 p)
Solve for n: n /2
2
e
p can be estimated with a pilot sample, if
necessary (or conservatively use p = .50)
Chap 7-37
What sample size...?
Chap 7-38
What sample size...?
(continued)
Solution:
For 95% confidence, use Z = 1.96
e = .03
p = .12, so use this to estimate p
Chap 7-39
SOAL LATIHAN
Chap 7-40
Soal 1
Chap 7-41
Soal 2
Chap 7-42
Soal 3
Chap 7-44
Soal 5
Chap 7-45
Soal 6
Chap 7-46
Soal 7
Suatu sistem peluncur roket tertentu sedang
dipertimbangkan untuk dipakai meluncurkan
sejumlah roket jarak pendek. Sistem yang
sekarang mempunyai peluang berhasil
meluncurkan sebuat roket p=0,8. Sampel 40
peluncuran percobaan dengan system yang baru
menunjukkan 34 yang berhasil.
a. Buatlah selang kepercayaan 95% untuk p.
b. Apakah kenyataannya cukup besar untuk
mendukung bahwa sistem yang baru ini lebih
baik? Jelaskan.
Chap 7-47