KEPUTUSAN DALAM
KONDISI BERISIKO
A 0 45.000 30.000
B 20.000 40.000 60.000
C 10.000 0 0
EOL a= 30.000
EOL b = 48.000
EOL c= 1500
Table 12.2
Payoff Table for the Real Estate Investments
Decision-Making Criteria:
Table 12.3
Payoff Table Illustrating a Maximax Decision
Decision Making without Probabilities
The Maximin Criterion
- In the maximin criterion the decision maker selects the decision that will reflect the
maximum of the minimum payoffs; a pessimistic criterion.
Table 12.4
Payoff Table Illustrating a Maximin Decision
Decision Making without Probabilities
The Minimax Regret Criterion
- Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision
payoffs.
- The decision maker attempts to avoid regret by selecting the decision alternative that minimizes
the maximum regret.
Table 12.6
Regret Table Illustrating the Minimax Regret Decision
Decision Making without Probabilities
- The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criterion.
- A coefficient of optimism, , is a measure of the decision maker’s optimism.
- The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the best payoff by and the worst payoff by 1- .,
for each decision, and the best result is selected.
Decision Values
Apartment building $50,000(.4) + 30,000(.6) = 38,000
Office building $100,000(.4) - 40,000(.6) = 16,000
Warehouse $30,000(.4) + 10,000(.6) = 18,000
Decision Making without Probabilities
- The equal likelihood ( or Laplace) criterion multiplies the decision payoff for each
state of nature by an equal weight, thus assuming that the states of nature are equally
likely to occur.
Decision Values
Apartment building $50,000(.5) + 30,000(.5) = 40,000
Office building $100,000(.5) - 40,000(.5) = 30,000
Warehouse $30,000(.5) + 10,000(.5) = 20,000
Decision Making without Probabilities
The Maximin Criterion
- In the maximin criterion the decision maker selects the decision that will reflect the maximum of
the minimum payoffs; a pessimistic criterion.
Table 12.4
Payoff Table Illustrating a Maximin Decision
Decision Making without Probabilities
The Minimax Regret Criterion
- Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision
payoffs.
- The decision maker attempts to avoid regret by selecting the decision alternative that minimizes
the maximum regret.
Table 12.6
Regret Table Illustrating the Minimax Regret Decision
Decision Making without Probabilities
- The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criterion.
- A coefficient of optimism, , is a measure of the decision maker’s optimism.
- The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the best payoff by and the worst payoff by 1- .,
for each decision, and the best result is selected.
Decision Values
Apartment building $50,000(.4) + 30,000(.6) = 38,000
Office building $100,000(.4) - 40,000(.6) = 16,000
Warehouse $30,000(.4) + 10,000(.6) = 18,000