3 Perapihan Umur SUPAS
3 Perapihan Umur SUPAS
75+ 75+
70-74 Male Female 70-74 Male Female
65-69 65-69
60-64 60-64
55-59 55-59
50-54 50-54
45-49 45-49
40-44 40-44
age groups
Age groups
35-39 35-39
30-34 30-34
25-29 25-29
20-24 20-24
15-19 15-19
10-14 10-14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
3, 0
6, ..
3, ..
..
6, ..
9, ..
12 ...
12 ...
9, ..
15 ...
...
, , , , , , , ,
0.
0.
.
0.
0.
0.
0
00
00
00
00
00 000 000 000 0 0 0 00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00 00 00 population in millions
,0
,0
,0
,0
,0 9, 6, 3, 3, 6, 9, ,0
15
12 12
population in millions
Piramida Provinsi Kalteng
75+ 75+
70-74 70-74
65-69 65-69
Laki-laki 60-64 Perempuan Laki-laki 60-64 Perempuan
55-59 55-59
50-54 50-54
45-49 45-49
40-44 40-44
35-39 35-39
30-34 30-34
25-29 25-29
20-24 20-24
15-19 15-19
10-14 10-14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 7 2 75 +
Female, 2005
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 7 5 +
Population by Age (2)
Male, 2015
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 +
Female, 2015
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 +
Index kualitas umur
INDONESIA, SUPAS 2005 INDONESIA, SUPAS2015
9 9
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
last digit
Last digit
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12
percent percent
• UN Formula
P1n = 1/16 (-Pn-2 + 4 Pn-1 + 10 Pn + 4 Pn+1 - Pn+2)
• Carrier-Farrag
penggabungan kelompok umur 10 tahunan dengan rumus
Vi” = 1/(1+Ki) x Vi untuk kelompok umur yg lebih tinggi
Vi’ = Vi + V” untuk kelompok umur yg lebih rendah
Smoothing 70 +
• model stasionery population (Tabel Stable Population).
proporsi dari penduduk kelompok umur 70+
terhadap total penduduk interpolasi hitung
penduduk umur (70-74, 75-79, 80-84 dan 85+) sesuai
dengan proporsi dari model stationary population.
Smoothing 70 +
Percentage
Estimated percentage of total in specified age group
of Pop’n
Aged 70
70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ 75+
and over
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
1.0 0.62 0.28 0.09 0.01 0.38
1.5 0.90 0.34 0.14 0.03 0.60
2.0 1.16 0.58 0.21 0.05 0.84
2.5 1.41 0.73 0.29 0.07 1.09
3.0 1.64 0.89 0.37 0.10 1.36
3.5 1.86 1.05 0.45 0.14 1.64
4.0 2.08 1.20 0.45 0.18 1.92
4.5 2.08 1.36 0.63 0.23 2.22
5.0 2.48 1.51 0.73 0.23 2.52
Smoothing 70 +
Contoh:
Jumlah penduduk perempuan (0-70+)=16.845.909 orang
Persentase penduduk perempuan usia 70+ tahun= 3,22 %
2,500,000
2,000,000
Male
1,500,000 Female
1,000,000
500,000
0
0 3 6 9 1 2 15 18 21 24 27 3 0 33 36 39 42 45 4 8 51 54 57 6 0 63 66 69 72
Smoothing (2)
2,500,000
2,000,000
Male-Smoothed BPE
1,500,000 Female-Smoothed BPE
Male-Smoothed Strong
Female-Smoothed Strong
1,000,000
500,000
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72
Reliability and Comparability:
Population Census Data Among Countries
Spain 2001 Philippines 2007 Thailand 2000
tlast digit
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
5 10 15 5 10 15 5 10 15
percent percent percent
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 3 2 1 0 1 2 3
population in ten million population in million
18
Country Census Profile
a comparison
PHILIPPINES PYRAMID, 2007 SPAIN PYRAMID, 2001
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
6 4 2 0 2 4 6 2 1 0 1 2
population in million population in million
19
Smoothing (3) and Ajustment
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
10,000
1 4 7 10 1 3 16 1 9 22 25 2 8 3 1 3 4 37 4 0 43 4 6 4 9 5 2 55 58 6 1
.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
500.0
Umur 0
Umur 2
Umur 4
Umur 6
Umur 8
Umur 10
Umur 12
Umur 14
Umur 16
Umur 18
Umur 20
Umur 22
Umur 24
Base Population:
Umur 26
Umur 28
Umur 30
Female by Age, 2010
Umur 32
Umur 34
Umur 36
Umur 38
Umur 40
Umur 42
Umur 44
Umur 46
Umur 48
Umur 50
Umur 52
Umur 54
Umur 56
Mungkin perlu
Umur 58
smoothing disini di
kelompok umur ini?
Umur 60
Umur 62
Umur 64
Umur 66
Tangapan ibu Suharti, PhD; Bappenas
Umur 68
Umur 70
Umur 72
Umur 74
2,100.0
Keterangan:
- Cohort 21 artinya kohort usia 21 pada th 2010
- Cohort 40 artinya kohort usia 40 pada th 2010
2,000.0 - Dst
Cohort 21
Cohort 22
Cohort 23
Cohort 24
1,900.0
Cohort 25
Cohort 26
Cohort 27
Perlu dilihat beberapa
Cohort 28 kohor ini diperjelas di
1,800.0
Cohort 29
gambar berikutnya
Cohort 30
Cohort 31
Cohort 32
1,700.0 Cohort 33
Cohort 34
Cohort 35
Cohort 36
1,600.0 Cohort 37
Cohort 38
Cohort 39
Cohort 40
1,500.0
1,400.0
2010
2011
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2020
2021
2022
2026
2027
2028
2029
2032
2033
2034
2035
2012
2013
2018
2023
2024
2025
2030
2031
2,100.0
2,080.0
Cohort 21
Cohort 22
Impact
Cohort 23
2,060.0
Cohort 24
• Kohor usia 27 & 28 pd
Cohort 25
2,040.0
tahun 2010 berkurangnya
Cohort 26
sangat lebih cepat
Cohort 27
2,020.0
Cohort 28
dibanding yang lain
Cohort 29
perlu dicek
2,000.0
Cohort 30
1,900.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
500.0
.0
Umur 0
Umur 2
Umur 4
Umur 6
Umur 8
Umur 10
Umur 12
Umur 14
Umur 16
Umur 18
Umur 20
Umur 22
Base Population:
Umur 24
Male by Age, 2010
Umur 26
Umur 28
Umur 30
Umur 32
Umur 34
Umur 36
Umur 38
Umur 40
Umur 42
Umur 44
Perlu smoothing sedikit
Umur 46
Umur 48
Umur 50
Umur 52
Umur 54
Umur 56
Umur 58
Umur 60
Umur 62
Umur 64
Umur 66
Umur 68
Umur 70
Umur 72
Umur 74
2,200.0
DAMPAK
2,100.0
Cohort 21
Cohort 22
2,000.0
Cohort 23
Cohort 24
Cohort 25
1,900.0
Cohort 26
Cohort 27
Cohort 28
1,800.0 Cohort 29
Cek cohort 27 & 30
Cohort 30
Cohort 31
1,700.0 Cohort 32
Cohort 33
Cohort 34
Cohort 35
1,600.0
Cohort 36
Cohort 37
Cohort 38
1,500.0
Cohort 39
Cohort 40
1,400.0
1,300.0
2011
2012
2017
2020
2028
2029
2031
2010
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2030
2032
2033
2034
2035
1,800.0
1,600.0 Cohort 41
OKE
Cohort 42
Cohort 43
1,400.0
Cohort 44
Cohort 45
Cohort 46
1,200.0
Cohort 47
Cohort 48
1,000.0 Cohort 49
Cohort 50
Cohort 51
800.0 Cohort 52
Cohort 53
Cohort 54
600.0
Cohort 55
Cohort 56
Cohort 57
400.0
Cohort 58
Cohort 59
200.0 Cohort 60
.0
2013
2018
2019
2022
2023
2027
2032
2033
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
2016
2017
2020
2021
2024
2025
2026
2028
2029
2030
2031
2034
2035