Demografi

(MMS-2415)
Danardono
Program Studi Statistika
Jurusan Matematika
FMIPA UGM
 Demografi
• Dari Bahasa Yunani, ”deskripsi dari orang
atau populasi”
• United Nations Multilingual Demographic
Dictionary:
Demography is the scientific study of human
populations, primarily with respect to their size,
their structure and their development
 Fokus dalam Demografi
Populasi (Manusia)
1. Ukuran (banyaknya)
2. Distribusi
3. Komposisi
4. Dinamika
5. Determinan sosial-ekonomi dan
konsekuensi dinamika populasi
 Timeline
3800 SM Sensus Babilonia (untuk kepentingan pajak)
2323 SM Sensus tahunan sapi di Mesir
2275 SM Catatan pembayaran pajak di Cina
1055 SM Sensus Raja Daud di tanah Palestina/Yahudi
578 – 534 Servius Tullius, sensus pertama Romawi
83,000 penduduk
untuk Militer, pajak dan voting
Asal kata census censere= to assess
6 – 7M Quiriminus, Siria sensus di sekitar tahun kelahiran Nabi Isa
645 M Koseki, daftar keluarga Jepang
1320 Black Death (wabah besar pes) di mulai dari Gurun Gobi.
Penduduk Cina turun dari 125 juta ke 90 juta pada abad ke-
14
1332 Ibnu Khaldun, sensus di Tunisia
 Timeline
1347-1352 Populasi Eropa turun dari 75 juta ke 50 juta
1357 Ibnu Khaldun, dlm karyanynya Muqaddimah ttg peran populasi
dalam kebudayaan sejarah; dampak dari Black Death
1589 Giovanni Battista Riccioli, membahas faktor-faktor yang
menghambat pertumbuhan populasi
1620 Sensus pertama koloni Inggris di Virginia
1625 Francis Bacon, peneliti pertama yg menggunakan istilah
populasi seperti sekarang ini
1662 John Graunt: Natural and Political Observations
1682 William Petty: Politicall Arithmetick
1693 Edmund Halley, An Estimate of the Degree of Mortality of
Mankind (Tabel mortalitas empiris yang pertama)
 Timeline
1732 Jethro Tull: New Horse Hoeing Husbandry. (Pengembangan
pertanian untuk menambah produksi makanan, meningkatkan
protein makanan, menurunkan kematian bayi)
1748 – 1751 Swedia, hukum/aturan tentang kompilasi statistik kependudukan
dari jemaah gereja
1755 Benjamin Franklin: Observations Concerning the Increase of
Mankind, Peopling of Countries, etc.
1760 Leonhard EULER: A General Investigation Into The Mortality
And Multiplication Of The Human Species the mathematical
conditions which hold under stable population theory
Adam SMITH: An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the
Wealth of Nations
1798 MALTHUS: An Essay on the Principle of Population, As It
Affects the Future Improvement of Society
1801 Populasi dunia 1 Milyar
 Timeline
1803 MALTHUS's Essay, 2nd ed.: An Essay on the Principle of
Population; or a View of its Past and Present Effects on Human
Happiness; with an Inquiry into our Prospects Respecting the
Future Removal or Mitigation of the Evils which it Occasions.
1812 Pierrse Simon de LAPLACE: Théories analytique des
probabilités (used sampled ratios of populations to births, from
1802 onward, to estimate total births)
1822 Francis PLACE: Illustrations and Proofs of the Principle of
Population
1825 Benjamin GOMPERTZ: On the Nature of the Function
Expressive of the Law of Human Mortality (pengembangan
rumus mortalitas)
1833 Perancis mendirikan kantor statistik Statistique Générale
1860 W.M. MAKEHAM: "On the Law of Mortality and Construction of
Annuity Tables," J. Inst. Actuaries (development of general
mortality formulas)
 Timeline
1868 Georg KNAPP: uber der Ermittlung der Sterblichkeit aus den
Auszeichnungen der Bevölkerungs-Statistik (aspek teoritis
pembentukan tabel mortalitas)
1871 Sensus di India, sensus skala besar yang pertama di luar Eropa
1875 Wilhelm LEXIS: Einleitung in die Theorie der Revölkerungs-
Statistik (risalah teoritis statistika demografi; mortalitas pada
usia tua)

1880 William FARR menerima penghargaan Medali emas dari British

Medical Association untuk kontribusinya dalam bidang
biostatistika
1883 Francis GALTON: Natural Inheritance (Perbedaan Fertilitas)
1884 Matakuliah demografi di Columbia College "Statistics of
Population" mencakup topik-topik: densitas, umur, jenis kelamin,
kelahiran, kematian, perkawinan, tabel mortalitas, emigrasi
1897 Karl PEARSON: The Chances of Death and Other Studies of
Evolution (pola mortalitas pada usia lanjut)
 Timeline
1912 Corrado GINI: Demographic Factors in the Evolution of Nations
1925 Robert WOODBURY: Causal Factors in Infant Mortality: A
Statistical Study Based on Investigations in Eight cities (satu
studi lapangan skala besar pertama di Amerika)
1925 LOTKA: Elements of Physical Biology (first major work on the
mathematics of population dynamics)
1925 Populasi dunia 2 milyar
1948 United Nations: Demographic Yearbook
1959 Populasi dunia 3 milyar
1963 Studies in Family Planning
1964 Demography (Population Association of America; Donald
BOGUE, 1st editor)
Lembaga Demografi Universitas Indonesia
1965 Ralph THOMLINSON: Population Dynamics
 Timeline
1969 Pusat Penelitian Kependudukan LIPI
1972 Ansley COALE: The Growth and Structure of Human
Populations: A Mathematical Investigation
1973 Lembaga Kependudukan
(Pusat Studi Kependudukan dan Kebijakan) UGM
1974 Populasi dunia 4 milyar
1977 Nathan KEYFITZ: Applied Mathematical Demography
1985 Demografi diajarkan di Jur. Matematika FMIPA UGM
Sempat hilang di kurikulum 2001
1986 Populasi dunia 5 milyar
1994 International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo
1997 26 September Undang-Undang No.16 tahun 1997 tentang statistik, Biro
Pusat Statistik diubah menjadi Badan Pusat Statistik: "Hari Statistik".
2000 Populasi dunia 6 milyar
2007 Demografi lahir kembali di Jur. Matematika FMIPA UGM
 Timeline

Gompertz
Halley Makeham
Graunt

UN

0 400 800 1200 1600 2000

578 – 534
Knapp
Census - censere
Lexis
Farr
3800: Euler Galton
Babilonia Adam Smith Pearson
1400 Malthus
Black Death
Populasi Dunia

http://www.ldolphin.org/popul.html
Demografi – Sain Fiksi
 Materi
1. Pendahuluan
2. Dinamika Populasi
3. Metode Analisis untuk Dinamika Populasi
4. Fertilitas, Mortalitas dan Migrasi
5. Model Demografi
6. Proyeksi Populasi
7. Topik Lanjut
 Penekanan Matakuliah
• Konsep-konsep dasar Demografi
• Metode Statistika dalam Demografi
• Aplikasi Demografi dan potensi karir yang
didukung oleh pengetahuan Demografi
 Aplikasi Demografi
• Ilmu sosial dan politik
• Ilmu ekonomi
• Riset pemasaran
• Kesehatan masyarakat
• Aktuaria
• Perencanaan tenaga kerja
Badan Pusat Statistik
Sensus Penduduk
Sensus Penduduk
Survei Demografi
 Survei Demografi
Demographic and Health
Surveys (DHS) are
nationally-representative
household surveys that
provide data for a wide
range of monitoring and
impact evaluation indicators
in the areas of population,
health, and nutrition.
TMI 2011
 Japan 2000
Males Females
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5- 9
0- 4
6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000
Numbers ('000)
The oldest age group is open-ended. Population 127,1m
 Indonesia 2000
100+ Males Females
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5- 9
0- 4
15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000
Numbers ('000)
The oldest age group is open-ended. Population 212,1m
 More developed regions 2000
100+ Males Females
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5- 9
0- 4

60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000

Numbers ('000)
The oldest age group is open-ended. Population 1191,4m
 Less developed regions 2000
100+ Males Females
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5- 9
0- 4
400000 300000 200000 100000 0 100000 200000 300000
Numbers ('000)
The oldest age group is open-ended. Population 4865,3m
 United States of America 2000
100+ Males Females
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5- 9
0- 4

15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Numbers ('000)
The oldest age group is open-ended. Population 283,2m