Manajemen Resiko

dalam Konstruksi

Krishna S. Pribadi
 Rencana Presentasi
•  Pengertian Dasar
–  Definisi-definisi
–  Pengertian risk-uncertainty
–  Risiko dalam Konstruksi
•  Konsep Dasar Risk Management
Pengertian Dasar
 Konsep dan Definisi
•  Risiko merupakan suatu konsep abstrak yang pada
dasarnya sulit untuk diukur dengan tepat. Sering juga
pengertian mengenai risiko dikaitkan dengan hal-hal
yang tidak pasti atau ketakpastian.

•  Risiko dan ketidak pastian menggambarkan suatu

situasi kejadian atau kegiatan tertentu yang
menghasilkan suatu keluaran yang mungkin berbeda
dari nilai-nilai yang diperkirakan atau diramalkan
sebelumnya.
 
 WHAT IS RISK?
“Risk is defined by those who seek to measure it,
as the product of the probability and utility of
some future event.”
John Adams 1995
R = P x I, where P = Probability or Likelihood
and I = Impact or Consequence
 Measuring Risk

Risk = Probability x Impact

Risk = Threat x Vulnerability DoT)
Risk = Threat + Vulnerability + Impact
Risk = Frequency of Impact x Cost of Impact
Risk = f(p,I,v,t,Fme)
Risk is all about consequence!
Sy = f(c-m,A,T)


 Mengukur Nilai Resiko

Nilai Resiko ( EMV) = P(l) x L + P(g) x G

EMV = expected monetary value
P (l) = kemungkinan terjadinya event yang
menyebabkan kerugian
P(g) = kemungkinan terjadinya event yang
menyebabkan keuntungan
L = kerugian
G = keuntungan
 RISK IN PERSPECTIVE

– BUT:

• PROBABILITY requires DATA

– AND:

• IMPACT is SUBJECTIVE
 The Elicitation of Subjective
Probabilities
•  attempting to solve the problem of inadequate
data
•  mobilising expert judgement
•  the importance of methodology
•  the value is in the process, not the outputs
Risk –Uncertainty Continuum

Raferty, 1994
The Definition of Uncertainty

uncertainty

amount of
information
required for
the decision
amount of
information
available
 The Definition of Uncertainty
•  two sources
–  complexity
–  predictability
•  two modes
–  mission
–  dynamic
•  the dynamic reduction of uncertainty through time
 The Dynamic Reduction of
Uncertainty Through Time
inception completion
NONE ALL

mission
dynamic
uncertainty : amount of
uncertainty
amount of information
information possessed
required certainty

ALL NONE
0 TIME
 Introduction

Cost Success

Project
Constraints
Quality Time
Introduction

Cost
overrun

Risks
Poor
Quality
Project
Constraints
Delays
What is a Risk?

Unknown

Unexpected
endeavor
Risk
action
Undesirable

Unpredictable
Definisi Resiko Pada Proyek Konstruksi

“Paparan terhadap kemungkinan kerugian atau

keuntungan ekonomis/finansial, kerusakan
fisik atau cedera, atau keterlambatan sebagai
konsekuensi dari ketakpastian yang dikaitkan
dengan melakukan suatu rangkaian tindakan
tertentu (Chapman, 1991)”.
Heterogenitas Proyek Konstruksi
 Risks in Construction
Economic Factors
Client

Environmental Factors
Contractor Supplier
Social Factors

Architect Quantity
Survey

Engineer Project
Manager

Inspector`

Political Factors
 Types of Risks in Construction

Physical
Acts Financial
of &
God Economic

Risks

Political
Const.
&
Related
Environ.
Design
 Types of Risks in Construction

Physical
Acts Financial
of & Acts of God
God Economic
ü  Flood
ü  Earthquake

Risks ü  Landslide
ü  Fire
ü  Wind damage
Political
Const.
&
Related
Environ.
Design
 Types of Risks in Construction

Physical
Acts Financial
of & Physical
God Economic
ü  Damage to structure
ü  Damage to
equipment
Risks
ü  Labor injuries
ü  Fire
Political
&
Const. ü  Theft
Related
Environ.
Design
 Types of Risks in Construction

Physical
Acts Financial
of & Financial &
Economic
God Economic
ü  Inflation
ü  Availability of funds
Risks
ü  Exchange rate
fluctuations
Political
Const.
ü  Financial default
&
Related
Environ.
Design
 Types of Risks in Construction

Physical
Acts Financial
of & Political &
Economic
God Environmental
ü  Changes in laws
and regulations
Risks ü  Requirement for
permits
ü  Law & order
Political
Const.
&
Related ü  Pollution and safety
Environ.
rules
Design
 Types of Risks in Construction

Physical
Acts Financial
of & Design
God Economic
ü  Incomplete design
scope
ü  Defective design
Risks
ü  Errors & omissions
ü  Inadequate
Political
Const.
specifications
&
Related
Environ.
Design
 Types of Risks in Construction

Physical
Acts Financial
of & Construction
Economic
God Related
ü  Labor disputes
ü  Labor productivity
Risks ü  Different site
conditions

Political
ü  Design changes
Const.
&
Environ.
Related ü  Equipment failure
Design
 Jenis-Jenis Risiko Konstruksi (1)
Ø  Pada proyek-proyek konstruksi, sumber-sumber risiko bisa berasal dari
dalam proyek sendiri atau dari luar proyek (eksternal)

Ø  Secara umum jenis-jenis risiko tersebut dapat dikategorikan sebagai :

q  Risiko berkaitan dengan konstruksi
q  Risiko dari kondisi fisik (misal kondisi bawah tanah)
q  Risiko kontraktual dan legal
q  Risiko berkaitan dengan kinerja proyek
q  Risiko ekonomi
q  Risiko politik dan publik
 Jenis-Jenis Risiko Konstruksi (2)
Ø  Beberapa contoh tipikal dari risiko pada proyek-proyek konstruksi antara
lain :
q  Kegagalan untuk memenuhi rancangan dan jadwal konstruksi
q  Kondisi tanah yang tidak terduga menyebabkan keterlambatan
q  Kondisi cuaca yang tidak mendukung
q  Kecelakaan kerja di lapangan
q  Force majeure (banjir, gempa bumi dll)
Ø  Pada akhirnya risiko pada proyek konstruksi bisa muncul dalam bentuk :
q  Kegagalan untuk berada dalam batasan anggaran biaya/forecast/
estimate/tender
q  Kegagalan untuk berada dalam batasan waktu yang sudah
ditentukan
q  Kegagalan untuk memenuhi standar teknis kualitas, fungsi, ketepat-
gunaan, keselamatan dan pelestarian lingkungan
 Project Risk Management
•  the features of projects and their clients
–  project large proportion of client’s total assets
–  projects tend to be one-off
–  clients tend to be bureaucracies
–  lack of managerial capabilities
•  the uneven distribution of risk and reward
–  client’s risk profile
–  project manager’s risk profile
Strategic Management of Project Risks
•  the broad categories of risk
–  market risks
–  completion risks
–  institutional risks
•  project shaping
•  project governability
 Project Shaping
•  information search
•  network building
•  incentives
•  design
•  influence
 Project Governability
•  aligning incentive through equity participation
•  incentive contracts
•  flexibility and modularity
•  deep pockets and project portfolios
•  partnering arrangements
Risk Management
 Definisi Manajemen Resiko

•  Suatu Proses Formal tempat faktor resiko

diidentifikasi (Identification), dianalisis
(Analysis), dan Ditangani (Response) secara
sistematis agar kerugian (loss and damage)
dapat diperkecil
•  Salah satu teknik untuk meminimalkan
kemungkinan dari suatu keadaan atau untuk
mengurangi akibat dari resiko, misalnya
praktek operasi yang benar, pemeliharaan
pencegahan dan rencana evaluasi [IEEE
Spectrum].
 Risk management
•  Involves identifying and measuring the risks
associated with a project
•  The major components of risk management
–  Risk management planning
–  Risk identification
–  Qualitative risk analysis - Probability and Impact
–  Quantitative risk analysis – Assessing risks on
objectives
–  Risk response planning
–  Risk monitoring and control
 Risk Management
•  Questions that might be asked when addressing the Risk
Management Plan.

1.  Why is it important to take or not to take this risk wrt

project objectives?
2.  What is the specific risk?
3.  How will the risk be mitigated?
4.  Who is responsible for the Risk Management Plan
5.  When will the milestones associated with the mitigation
approach occur?
6.  What are resources that are required to mitigate the risk?
 Risk Management
A systematic approach to control the level of risk to
mitigate its effects.

Risk
RiskIdentification
Identification
Risk
RiskMonitoring
Monitoring

Controlled
Risk Risk
RiskEstimation
Estimation Risk
Analysis Environment

Risk
Risk Response
Response
Risk
RiskEvaluation
Evaluation

Risk Management Life Cycle

Risk Management

Risk Identification

Risk Clasification

Risk Analysis

Risk Attitude

Risk Response

Gambar 5.1 Kerangka Kerja Manajemen Resiko

Risk Management Approach

Establish the Context

Identify Risks

Analyze Risks

Evaluate Risks

Treat Risks
 The Risk Management Process
identify & classify
the risk

monitor the risk analyse the

risk

respond to
the risk
 Tahapan Risk Management
1.  Identifikasi resiko : mengidentifikasi sumber dan jenis resiko
2.  Klasifikasi resiko : mempertimbangkan jenis risiko dan
dampaknya terhadap seseorang atau suatu organisasi
3.  Analisis resiko : mengevaluasi konsekwensi berkaitan dengan
jenis resikonya, atau kombinasi dari beberapa resiko,
menggunakan teknik-teknik analitik. Mengkaji dampak resiko
menggunakan cara-cara pengukuran resiko
4.  Sikap terhadap resiko : setiap keputusan berkaitan resiko akan
bergantung kepada orang atau organisasi yang mengambil
keputusan
5.  Penanganan resiko : mempertimbangkan bagaimana resiko
akan dikelola, melalui pemindahan ke pihak lain atau
menghadapinya sendiri.
 Risk Analysis
Estimating the potential impacts of risk to decide what risks to
retain and what risks to transfer to other parties

Risk Analysis
Techniques

Quantitative Qualitative

Probability analysis Ranking options

Sensitivity analysis Comparing options

Simulation techniques Descriptive analysis

 Risk Response

Risk Response Methods

Elimination Transfer Retention Reduction

 Risk Response

Risk Response Methods

Elimination Transfer Retention Reduction

Risk Elimination Practices

ü  Tendering a very high bid
ü  Placing conditions on the bid
ü  Pre-contract negotiations as to which party takes certain risks
ü  Not biding on the high risk portion of the contract
 Risk Response

Risk Response Methods

Elimination Transfer Retention Reduction

Risk Transfer
ü  Two basic forms.
ü  (a) The activity responsible for the risk may be transferred, i.e.
hire a subcontractor to work on a hazardous process
ü  (b) The activity may be retained, but the financial risk
transferred, i.e. methods such as insurance.
 Risk Response

Risk Response Methods

Elimination Transfer Retention Reduction

Risk Retention
ü  Handling risks by the company who is undertaking the project.
ü  Two retention methods, active and passive.
ü  Active retention is a deliberate management strategy after a
conscious evaluation of the possible losses and costs of
alternative ways of handling risks.
ü  Passive retention occurs through negligence, ignorance or
absence of decision.
 Risk Response

Risk Response Methods

Elimination Transfer Retention Reduction

Risk Reduction
ü  Continuous effort.
ü  Related with improvements of a company’s physical, procedural,
educational, and training devices.
ü  Improving housekeeping, maintenance, first aid procedures and
security.
ü  Education and training within every department .
Risiko dalam budgeting
Ketidak-pastian dalam suatu Proyek
Investasi Infrastruktur

Siklus Proyek Konstruksi

PROJECT PROJECT OPERATION
APPRAISAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE
ASSET

Definition Design

Concept Construction

Initiation Sanction Completion

Peranan Manajemen Risiko Dalam Siklus
Proyek Konstruksi (2)

Lingkup Manajemen Proyek

PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Project Project
Project Integration Project Time Project Quality
Communications Procurement
Management Management Management
Management Management

Project Human
Project Scope Project Sost Project Risk
Resource
Management Management Management
Management

PMBOK, PMI
Peranan Manajemen Risiko Dalam Siklus
Proyek Konstruksi (3)

Siklus Pengembangan
Rencana Proyek
Proses Manajemen Risiko PadaSuatu Proyek
 RISK IN PERSPECTIVE
The Risk Management Cycle

REVIEW IDENTIFY

MANAGE ASSESS
 The Risk Management Cycle
1.  IDENTIFY
A.  ASSETS
B.  THREATS
C.  VULNERABILITIES (The Security Survey)
2.  ASSESS
A. Gross Risk: The Risk Matrix and the Risk Register
B. Net Risk: The Risk Register (with financial penalties)
3.  MANAGE (COUNTERMEASURES)
A. TRANSFER
B. TERMINATE
C. TOLERATE OR IGNOR!
D. TREAT – egg through a Business Continuity Plan
4.  CONTROL/REVIEW
A. TEST AND EVALUATE PLANS
B. SIMULATION AND EXERCISES
 Internal control systems (Turnbull)
Business objectives

Identify and evaluate risks

Transfer
Treat or Manage the risks
the risks
Terminate
or avoid EMBEDDED
the risks Tolerate INTERNAL
Contract-out Insure
risks CONTROL
SYSTEMS
Periodic review Periodic review

Identify ways to improve

Provide information and assurance

 Risk Procedures – The Tools
•  Threat Library: Asset v Vulnerability v Threat
(political & security risk analysis etc)
•  Security surveys/Audits – structures and countries
•  Risk analysis of each threat:
–  Probability v Impact
–  Risk matrix/score card
•  Risk register: list of risks in order of score
•  Addressing the risk – Transfer, Tolerate, Treat or
Terminate
•  Modelling and response
•  Doctrine and continuity/contingency planning
•  Gaming and exercises. HR impact:trauma, anger, shock
etc
 Benefits from Software Risk Management
Practices*
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60% 47% 47% 43%
40% 35%

20% 6%
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*Kulik, Peter and Catherine Weber, “Software Risk Management

Practices – 2001,” KLCI Research Group (August 2001).