Benjamin Graham
1. Current Ratio
- Current ratio ≥ 2 (hati hati sama AR. Bisa jadi banyak yang nunggak. Gak selalu
current ratio besar itu bagus).
- Current ratio < 2 (u/ perusahaan telekomunikasi & utility)
2. Working capital (net current assets) :current assets – current liabilities.
- Long term debt ≤ Net current assets (working capital)
3. Cari EPS 10 tahun terakhir. Cari rata-rata EPS 3 tahun pertama lalu bandingkan
dengan EPS 3 tahun terakhir.
- EPS growth ≥ 30% && no negative EPS in last 5 years.
4. Rata-rata P/E ratio 3 tahun terakhir≤ 15
5. P/B x P/E ≤22
6. Debt-Equity Ratio
- D/E ≤ 100% (industrial company)
- D/E ≤ 230% (utilities, railroad, bank company)
7. Dividend 20 tahun berurutan
John Neff
David Dreman
Warren Buffet
2. Earning predictability y1≥y2≥y3≥……≥y10 (except for dips from a prior year’s earnings
yang gak lebih dari 45% dan gak ada negative EPS)
3. Long term debt >2 &&≤ 5 times earning
4. ROE (averaged over last 10 years) ≥ 15%
5. Return on total capital (ROTC) : net earning of the business divided by total capital in
business, including both equity and debt ≥ 12%
6. Free cash flow > 0
7. Retained earning≥ 12% (balance sheet ->ekuitas ->saldo laba
8. Initial rate of return (earning yield) > 10 y gov bond
9. ROE Method (ada di excel)
Peter Lynch
Kategori :
- Fast grower : EPS growth >20% / y and low level of debt.
- Stalwarts : annual sales besar dan 10-19% EPS growth / y
- Slow grower : large and aging company yang biasa bayar dividend dan EPS kecil.
- Cylicals :manufaktur, airlines, tire company etc. perusahaan cenderung membaik
saat ekonomi bagus tapi saat ekonomi jelek, dia terimbas.
- Turnarounds :company in trouble ready to turn around. Lynch likes to see more
cash than debt and the type of debe is not bank debt or corporate paper, but
instead funded debt like corporate bonds.
o Bail us out or else : buy on hopes that government will help bail out the
company.
o Who would have thunk it :perusahaan yang mengejutkan market dengan
berhasil melakukan turn around.
o Little problem we didn’t anticipate : company with minor problem that is
perceived by the market to be worse than it really is.
o Perfectly good company inside a bankrupt company: a quite healthy part
of a sick company
o Restructuring to maximize shareholder values : this refers to the way
companies rid themselves of unprofitable subsidiaries, so what’s left is
the good stuff.
- Asset plays :perusahaan berharga yang dinilai tidak wajar oleh market dilihat dari
asset nya. Sebagai contoh
1. P/E/G -> PER/(EPS + dividend yield). dividend yield dipakai buat fast grower dan stalw
- > 0 && ≤ 1
2. change in inventory-to-sales ratio (manufacturing)
- change in inventory/sales is negative (pass)
- change in inventory/sales = 0 (pass)
- change in inventory/sales is positive but ≤ 5% points (pass) *jadi klo misal tahun lalu
10% dan tahun ini gak boleh lebih dari 15%. klo lebih dari 15% gak lolos.
3. D/E ratio (tidak berlaku u/ finansial dan utility) < 80%
4. Equity to assets (E/A) *financial company ≥ 5 %
5. Return on Assets (ROA) *financial company ≥ 1 %
6. Fast Grower
- P/E : sales > 10 T dan P/E ≤ 40
- EPS > 25% && ≤ 50% (tapi tidak disebutkan rentang waktu pengambilan data)
- Liat cabang di kota/daerah lainnya sukses atau tidak
- cari tau apakah masih ada ruang untuk tumbuh atau tidak
- lihat ekspansinya apakah cepat atau lambat.
- jika ada institusi yang memilikinya dan tidak pernah di dengan wall street, maka ini
kelebihannya.
7. Stalwarts
- sales ≥ 20 T
- EPS > 0 (over 12 TTM)
8. Slow Grower
- Sales ≥ 10T
- Yield ≥ 3%x IHSG yield (gampangnya pake earning yield saja)
* yield : Net realized return / principal amount
*contoh : beli stock $100/share. dalam setahun harga jadi $120/share dan bagi
dividend $2 / share. yield : ($120-$100+$2) / $100 = 0.22 == 22%
9. Free cash flow per share-to-current price ratio ≥ 35 %
* free cash flow : operating earning + amortization + depreciation - the full amount paid for
capital equipment (ada di dalam cash flow statement)
10. Net cash per share-to-current price ratio (cash pershare / price pershare)
- 30% - 39% (good)
- 40% - 49% (better)
- ≥ 50% (best)
11.* tambahan free cash flow yield. free cash flow yield = free cash flow / enterprise value
(komparasi antar sesama dan cari yang paling besar aja)
Kenneth L. Fisher
Martin Zweig
1. Interest rate naik / cash reserve ratio, indikator bakal bear market, vice versa. (pelajarin
lagi lah) banyak beut
2. installment debt naik, interest rate naik, saham negative.
- buy signal saat yoy change of installment debt turun 9%
- sell signal saat yoy change of installment debt naik 9%
3. Prime rate = rate bank u/ customer spesial. (liat di trading econoic)
4. PER
- ≥ 5 && ≤ 43 && ≤ 3xMarket PER (pass)
5. Growth sales
- Q5 to Q1 ≥ Q6 to Q2
6. Earning stability
- Q1 EPS > 0
- Q5 EPS > 0
- Q5 to Q1 EPS > 0
7. Earning persistence
- EPS Y1 > Y2 > Y3 > Y4 > Y5 (year)
- growth EPS Q8 to Q4, Q7 to Q3, Q6 to Q2 and Q5 to Q1 ≥ 50% historical growth
- EPS growth (long term) ≥ 15%
8. Earning acceleration
- percentage growth EPS Q5 to Q1 ≥ average percentage growth from Q8 to Q4, Q7 to
Q3 and Q6 to Q2
- Growth Q5 to Q1 ≥ 30% (pass)
9. D/E < average industry (pass)
10. insider transaction. in three month period : insider sell transaction = 0 && buy
transaction ≥ 3.
James O'shaughnessy
1. shareholder yield. (stock's dividend yield + its share buyback activity). buyback activity =
number of shares awal tahun - akhir tahun.
2. kriteria RS untuk 3 bulan dan 6 bulan.bisa jadi di tengah tengah priod, ada masalah
dengan harganya.
3. The cornerstone growth strategy
- market cap ≥ $150 million
- EPS persistence (Y1 > Y2 > ... > Y5)
- P/S R < 1.5
- Relative Strength ranking = in top 50 of the stocks passing first three criteria
4. Cornerstone value strategy
- market cap > $1 billion
- cash flow/share > market average cash flow/share
- share outstanding > market average shares outstanding
- sales TTM > Market average sales (TTM) x 1.5
- dividends yield ranking = in top 50 passing the previous 4 criteria
Joel Greenblatt
Joseph Piotroski
1. sortir pake b/m (book market) lalu pilih yang 20% terbesar.
2. setelah itu, sortir masing masing emiten u/ membedakan yang bagus atau tidak
- profitability : had ability to generate funds internally from operation. historical
earning dilihat lalu lihat cash flow bagus atau tidak.
- financial leverage/liquidity : increase leverage, deterioration of liquidity &
penggunaan external financing adalah pertanda buruk.
- operating efficiency : profit margin nambah gak.produktivity naik gak walau dengan
asset yang sama?
3. profit lebih besar dari cash flow from operation adalah tanda yang gak baik.
4. produk itu harus bisa dibeli secara terus menerus bukan panas - panas tai ayam.
5. ROA > 0
6. Change in return on Assets : ROA recent year > ROA previous year
7. Cash flow from operation > 0
8. cash flow from operation > net income
9. Long term debt-asset ratio (LTD/A) most recent year < LTD/A previous year
10. Change in current ratio : CR recent year > CR previous year.
11. Change in shares outstanding (SO) : number of SO recent year ≤ nmber of SO in previous
year.
12. Change in gross margin : gross margin recent year > gross margin previous year
13. change in asset turnover : recent year > previous year
lain-lain
- pelajari sharpe ratio
- standart deviation makin kecil makin bagus
- fisher model lebih bagus daripada hot model
- portfolio terbagus dipegang dibawah 50 emitten
- diversify tapi jangan terlalu banyak yang sama bidang usahanya (nilai beta juga jangan
terlalu sama)
- long term investor : strategy over the long hauled, not hold investment too long
- rebalance portfolio at fixed interval