Training Material

J.612000.005.01 Peramalan Kebutuhan Layanan

J.612000.005.01 Peramalan Kebutuhan Layanan
ELEMEN KRITERIA UNJUK KERJA
KOMPETENSI
1. Mengumpulkan 1. Informasi tentang kebutuhan pelanggan dan kemungkinan
informasi pertumbuhan penggunaan jaringannya, diakses.
kebutuhan 2. Data kebutuhan untuk menilai jumlah dan aliran trafik
dijaringan diperoleh.
3. Informasi teknologi baru, fasilitas, fitur dan aplikasi,
khususnya tren pasar penerapan teknologi baru, diakses.
4. Perioda waktu peramalan ditentukan.
2. Menghasilkan 1. Semua data yang dikumpulkan diproses. Format yang
informasi dibutuhkan untuk kegiatan peramalan disiapkan.
perkiraan 2. Perangkat lunak peramalan yang sesuai untuk memproses
kebutuhan data dipilih.
layanan 3. Hasil perkiraan kebutuhan layanan untuk perkembangan
baru, dievaluasi.
4. Angka perkiraan dilaporkan sesuai dengan kebijakan
industri telekomunikasi bergerak seluler.
3. Mengkonversi data 1. Data marketing, fitur, dan model produk diproses menjadi
komersial menjadi parameter teknis.
model 2. Model perencanaan ditentukan sesuai data
perencanaan dan komersial.
parameter teknis
4. Memperbarui 1. Perkiraan yang sesuai kebijakan diperiksa.
catatan sistem 2. Perkiraan dengan pertimbangan perkembangan baru dan
perubahan teknologi, dipastikan.
3. Pemutakhiran catatan dari setiap perubahan dilakukan.
J.612000.005.01
PERAMALAN
KEBUTUHAN LAYANAN

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Perencanaan Kapasitas:
Calculation steps
1. Dasar/Pengertian
2. Number of user
3. User density
4. Services and Type
5. Penetration : building, vehicular,
pedestrian
6. BHCA and call duration
7. OBQ
8. Site calculation
Kapasitas Sel (Capacity Plan)
 Kapasitas sistem adalah kemampuan sistem
dalam menyampaikan banyaknya informasi per
satuan waktu (bit per detik).
 Menghitung kapasitas sistem

Permutasi
Subcarriers
Pengertian Kapasitas
Selama fase perencanaan penggelaran, setelah
operator menetapkan ukuran kanal spektrum radio,
pertanyaan berikutnya adalah :

Berapa banyak koneksi data yang dapat disuport

oleh kanal tersebut ?

Berapa banyak Base Station yang diperlukan untuk

suatu area layanan ?

Pemahaman terhadap kapasitas sistem adalah kunci

untuk menggelar Access Network yang sukses.
Perencanaan Kapasitas: Kategori Pelanggan
Untuk perencanaan kapasitas, pelanggan dibagi menjadi 3 kategori

Professional User : Pelanggan yang membutuhkan Mobile Broadband

Access untuk tujuan bisnis dan juga personal.
• E-mail, video conferencing, file downloads, etc.
• Akses mobile dan nomadic broadband dibutuhkan untuk
mempertahankan komunikasi ketika commuting, meeting
with clients, inspecting remote job sites, dll.

High-End Consumer : Pelanggan dengan high usage, dengan

penggunaan aplikasi untuk keperluan personal lebih tinggi dibanding
bisnis.
• Web browsing, gaming, music downloads, dll.

Casual User: Pelanggan yang menginginkan akses secara periodik,

hanya beberapa jam per hari.
• Web browsing
Perencanaan Kapasitas: Pengertian Kapasitas
Kapasitas suatu jaringan wireless (fixed/mobile)
didefinisikan sebagai jumlah dari user-user yang
dapat disuport oleh suatu cell site dengan
mempertahankan kriteria QoS/GOS tertentu.
Dapat juga direpresentasikan oleh jumlah user
yang diasosiasikan dengan throughput data dan
kriteria QoS tertentu.
Spektrum RF yang tersedia, mempunyai kaitan
langsung dengan kapasitas yang bisa diberikan.
Air Interface yang mampu menggunakan alokasi
spektrum secara efisien, akan menawarkan
kapasitas yang lebih besar.
Perencanaan Kapasitas: Perhitungan
Throughput
Faktor yang menentukan throughput yang tersedia pada suatu
sektor:
1. Jumlah data subcarrier yang digunakan per frame
OFDM/OFDMA

2. Tipe Modulasi
Terdapat 2 coding rate per modulation rate yang
menghasilkan 8 level modulasi yang berbeda :
(1) BPSK ½ (2) BPSK ¾ (3) QPSK ½ (4) QPSK ¾
(5) 16QAM ½ (6) 16QAM ¾ (7) 64QAM 2/3 (8)
64QAM ¾

3. DL/UL duration ratio

 Estimasi Jumlah Pelanggan
◦ Pada implementasi real, jumlah pelanggan harus berdasarkan
survey demand baik mikro (lingkup kota, data primer, survey demand)
maupun makro (national, data sekunder mis. Dari BPS)
◦ Jumlah pelanggan ditentukan oleh ukuran pasar (market size),
target market share dan penetrasi service yang diinginkan,
◦ Market Size menunjukkan seberapa besar pasar broadband yang
ada di kota tersebut :
 Jumlah dan trend pengguna komputer
 Jumlah dan trend pengguna broadband wireline maupun broadband
wireless existing
◦ Penetrasi layanan yang diinginkan
 Jenis layanannya (product)
 Segmentasi pelanggan yang disasar (umur, belanja telekomunikasi, dlsb)
◦ Target market share ditentukan oleh
 Kompetitor dan level kompetisi
 Rata-rata pelanggan yang pindah (churn rate)
 Operator lama atau operator baru
Kebutuhan Jumlah Base Station
Kebutuhan jumlah BS untuk suatu area tertentu ditentukan oleh
◦ Capacity Demand, berapa total “bps” yang
dibutuhkan oleh area tersebut yang dihitung
mencakup kebutuhan 3 – 5 tahun ke depan.
Kebutuhan kapasitas ditentukan oleh
 Jumlah pelanggan mencakup pertumbuhannya 3-5 thn
ke depan
 Rata-rata trafik per pelanggan (desain layanan)
 Over booking yang menyatakan resource tersebut
disediakan secara sharing (untuk berapa pelanggan ?)
atau ekslusif (tanpa sharing)
◦ Luas wilayah, luas kota dimana BS akan dipasang
dan kategorinya apakah urban, sub-urban atau rural
◦ Radius per sector BS
◦ Kapasitas per sector BS
Estimasi Jumlah Pelanggan
◦ Pada implementasi real, jumlah pelanggan harus berdasarkan
survey demand baik mikro (lingkup kota, data primer, survey
demand) maupun makro (national, data sekunder mis. Dari BPS)
◦ Jumlah pelanggan ditentukan oleh ukuran pasar (market size),
target market share dan penetrasi service yang diinginkan,
◦ Market Size menunjukkan seberapa besar pasar broadband yang
ada di kota tersebut :
 Jumlah dan trend pengguna komputer
 Jumlah dan trend pengguna broadband wireline maupun broadband
wireless existing
◦ Penetrasi layanan yang diinginkan
 Jenis layanannya (product)
 Segmentasi pelanggan yang disasar (umur, belanja telekomunikasi, dlsb)
◦ Target market share ditentukan oleh
 Kompetitor dan level kompetisi
 Rata-rata pelanggan yang pindah (churn rate)
 Operator lama atau operator baru
Nominal Planning By Capacity
Nominal Planning By Capacity:
Subscribers
Un = Uo (1 + gf)n
Uou = u x UoN
Uosub = sub x UoN
Uo is Uou or Uosub

Where:

UoN = a x b x d x N
• Un : num of user on year ‘n’
• Uo : initial num of user (based on urban/sub-urban)
• a : percent of cellular user (%)
• b : penetration of operator A (%)
• d : Percent of LTE user
• N : num of civilian in the object area
• gf : num of user growth factor
• n : planned year
• u/sub : urban or sub-urban penetration (%)
Nominal Planning By Capacity:
Subscribers
Ex :
• Population = 1445892 people
• Cellular penetration = assumption 80%
• LTE penetration = assumption 10 %
• LTE provider A penetration = assumption 50 %

Population 1445892 people

Customer cellular (80%) 1156713 user
Customer LTE (10%) 115671 user
Customer LTE provider A (50%) 57835 user

User prediction in 5th years

• U5 = 57835 ( 1 + 0.05 )5 assumption fp=5%
= 73814 user
Nominal Planning By Capacity:
Traffic Model
Nominal Planning By Capacity :
Subscribers Data Volume in BH
- Avg. Traffic user / BH
= 10 MB
- Avg. Traffic user /
Sub
= 10 MB / 3600 s *8 bit
= 22.75 Kbps
- Total Offered Traffic
= 73814 * 22.75
= 1679268.5 Kbps
= (1680 Mbps)
Nominal Planning By Capacity
Nominal Planning By Capacity
 Calculate Cell by Capacity
Element Value Unit
Cell Capacity 18 Mbps
Sector 3 sector
enodeB Capacity 54 Mbps
Congestion Control 80 %
Total Offered Traffic 1680 Mbps
No. Of Site 38.88889 Site
 No. Of Site = 39 Site
Nominal Planning By Capacity
User Density

Lu = L x u Lsub = L x sub

 Lu : urban area wide

 Lsub : sub-urban area wide
 L : object area wide

Cu = Un/ Lu Csub = Un/Lsub

 Cu : Urban area density

 Csub : sub-urban area density
Example User Density Calculation
Ex :
 urban area penetration = assumption 40 %
 suburban area penetration = assumption 40 %
 Openarea = assumption 20 %
 Urban user = 73814 x 60 % = 44288 user
 Suburban user = 73814 x 40 % = 29525 user
=>
Urban area wide (Lu) : 242,928 km2
Sub-urban area wide (Lsub) : 242,928 km2
=>
Cu = 44288 / 242,928 = 182,31232 user/km2
Csub = 29525 / 242,928 = 121,54155 user/km2
Services and Type
 Services (Rb)
◦ VoIP : 64 kbps
◦ FTP : 1000 kbps
◦ Video : 384 kbps

 Type (c)
◦ Building : 50 %
◦ Vehicular : 30 %
◦ Pedestrian : 20 %
 Penetration (p) per type per service
e.g: BUILDING VoIP usage penetration = 0.5
BUILDING FTP usage penetration = 0.4
PEDESTRIAN Video usage penetration = 0.3

 BHCA (B) per type per service

e.g: BUILDING VoIP usage penetration = 0.008
BUILDING FTP usage penetration = 0.009
PEDESTRIAN Video usage penetration = 0.008

 Call duration (h) per type per service (ms)

e.g: BUILDING VoIP usage penetration = 60
BUILDING FTP usage penetration = 50
PEDESTRIAN Video usage penetration = 50
 Penetrasi User (p)
Vehicula
Building Pedestrian r
Voip 0,5 0,5 0,2
Video 0,3 0,3 0,2
FTP 0,4 0,4 0,3

net user bit rate

call duration (h) service (Rb)
type
voip video ftp VoIP 64000
building 60 40 50
FTP 1000000
pedestrian 60 50 70
Video 384000
vehicular 60 40 80

BHCA (B)
Service Building Pedestrian Vehicular
Voip 0,008 0,008 0,009
Video 0,007 0,008 0,009
FTP 0,009 0,008 0,008
OBQ (Offered Bit Quantity)
 VoIP
OBQT = cT x Cu; T x pT x RbVoIP x BT x hT

 FTP
OBQT = cT x Cu; T x pT x RbFTP x BT x hT

 Video
OBQT = cT x Cu; T x pT x RbVid x BT x hT

Note: if T= pedestrian, then ―OBQT ― is

pedestrian OBQ, ―BT ― is pedestrian BHCA, etc.
T : Type (Building;Vehicular; Pedestrian)
 OBQ cont’d
OBQ total = OBQVoIP + OBQFTP + OBQVideo
Where:
OBQVoIP = OBQvehicular + OBQbuilding + OBQ pedestrian
OBQFTP = OBQvehicular + OBQbuilding + OBQ pedestrian
OBQVideo = OBQvehicular + OBQbuilding + OBQ pedestrian
 OBQ cont’d
OBQ

Service Building Pedestrian Vehicular

Voip 1,400158616 0,5600634 0,252029

Video 2,940333094 5,2505948 1,008114
FTP 16,40810878 8,1675919 7,000793

∑ 20,74860049 13,97825 8,260936

OBQtotal= 20,74860049 + 13,97825 + 8,260936 = 42,98779

Nominal Planning By Capacity
Site Calculation
 Site (L)
L = (50.4 x 3) / OBQtotal
= (50.4 x 3) / 42,98779 = 3,5172778 km2
50.4 Mbps ---> (asumption: using 64 QAM 1/1, BW = 10 MHz)

 Radius (d)
d = (L / 2.6 / 1.95) ^ 0.5
= (3,5172778 / 2.6 / 1.95) ^ 0.5 = 0,832912489 km
Site Calculation Con’t
 Number of eNodeB (M)
M = Lu / L
= 242,928 km2 / 3,5172778 km2
= 69,06704366

We use “Lu” JUST IN

CASE we count urban
capacity only
Perhitungan
Dimensioning Capacity: Traffic volume based approach
 Hitung dimensioning capacity
(subscriber/site) dengan pendekatan traffic
volume pada sistem LTE dengan 3 sector/site
dengan performansi minimum (a) dan sistem
LTE dengan performansi maksimum(b);
dengan kondisi:
◦ Busy hour average loading is 50%.
◦ Busy hour is assumed to carry 15% of the daily
traffic
◦ Offering Monthly Package to subscriber: 5 GBps

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Contoh Perhitungan
Dimensioning Capacity: Traffic volume based approach
 Cell capacity (biasanya dalam Mbps)
 Rubah cell capacity ke GBps (1k = 1024,
1Byte = 8 bits).
 Rubah ke satuan waktu (detik, jam, waktu)
 Perhatikan statistic/prediksi/asumsi traffic
volume yang ada, seperti:
 Busy hour average loading is 50%.
 Busy hour is assumed to carry 15% of the
daily traffic
 Hitung kemampuan dalam setiap sector dan
site.

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Contoh Perhitungan
Dimensioning Capacity: Traffic volume based approach

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Quiz 1 : LTE Capacity Planning
 Hitung dimensioning capacity
(subscriber/site) dengan pendekatan
traffic volume pada sistem LTE pada
kondisi di contoh perhitungan dengan
performansi minimum (a) dan sistem LTE
dengan performansi maksimum(b)

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Contoh Perhitungan
Dimensioning Capacity Data rate based approach

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Quiz 2 : LTE Capacity Planning
 Hitung dimensioning capacity
(subscriber/site) dengan pendekatan data
rate pada sistem LTE pada kondisi di
contoh perhitungan sebelumnya dengan
performansi minimum (a) dan sistem LTE
dengan performansi maksimum(b)

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DEPLOYMENT
PLANNING

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Design Criteria
• Which Spectrum Licenses are Available?
• Is Coverage Area Urban or Rural?
• Are Existing Towers Available or Will Tower
Construction be Required?
• Applications - Fixed Solution vs. Mobility?
• CPE – Outdoor, USB Desktop, Dongle, or Handsets
• What Backhaul Options are Available?
• Product Availability and Number of Vendor Options?
• Ensure Design Reflects Goals for Geographic Coverage
and Broadband Speed?
RF Design - RAN
• Using RF Analysis Tool, Determine Predicted Coverage
Levels and Aggregate Speeds Based Upon Technology
and CPE Selection
• Utilize Various GIS Data To Evaluate Possible Tower
Sites
• Select First Choice Tower Locations in Populated Areas
• Select Additional Tower Locations to Fill in Rural Areas
• Identify Areas Where New Towers May Be Required
• Generate Site Search Rings When Necessary
• Analyze Results and Add or Delete Sites as Required
Backhaul
• LTE demands high-capacity backhaul
• Leased T1’s will prove inadequate
• Viable choices are fiber or microwave
LTE Deployment Options
Core Design
• Design Core Network Based Upon Projected Number
of Subscribers and Bandwidth Requirements
• Is VoIP Required or Data Only?
• Ancillary/OEM Solutions Needed
• Billing
• Network Management,
• Subscriber Provisioning
• Regulatory (E911, CALEA)
• Identify Existing Equipment Required to Interface
• Evaluate Building Feasibility Related to Redundant
Backhaul Facilities, Security, and Back-up Power
LTE Evolved Packet Core
Bandwidth Efficiency

700 MHz LTE

Available Licensed Bandwidth (MHz) 6+6
Usable Bandwidth (MHz) 5+5
Spectral efficiency, downlink (bps/Hz) 1.67
Spectral efficiency, uplink (bps/Hz) 0.89
Average Throughput per 3-sector site, downlink (Mbps) 25.05
Average Throughput per 3-sector site, uplink (Mbps) 13.35
Loading Factor, downlink 70%
Loading Factor, uplink 60%

* Performance data is averaged from various vendors’ claims as of 2011.

Traffic Forecasting: Subscriber Traffic
Model
700 MHz LTE
Traffic per Subscriber per Month (GB) 30
Downlink Traffic (%) 70%
Uplink Traffic (%) 30%
Hours in the Busy Period per Day 4
Percent of Daily Traffic Carried in Busy Period 25%
Downlink Busy Hour Traffic per Subscriber 97 kbps
Uplink Busy Hour Traffic per Subscriber 42 kbps
Subscribers Supported per Sector 60
Subscribers Supported per Base Station (3 sectors) 180

* Performance data is averaged from various vendors’ claims as of 2011.

Estimate of Investment
700 MHz LTE
Access Network
3-Sector Single-5MHz-Carrier Macro Cell $55,000
Investment per Subscriber $306
Core Network
Broadband Data-Only Core Network $3,000,000
Incremental for VoIP Core Network $1,400,000
CPE Terminals
Desktop/Fixed CPE $395
USB Dongle $200
* Pricing data is averaged from various vendors’ proposals as of 2011.
Pricing - Example Network #1
700 MHz LTE
Base Stations 50
Subscribers Supported 9000
Total Investment $9,827,500
Investment per Subscriber $1,092
* Pricing data is averaged from various vendors’ proposals as of 2011.
Pricing - Example Network #2
700 MHz LTE
Base Stations 100
Subscribers Supported 18,000
Total Investment $15,255,000
Investment per Subscriber $848
* Pricing data is averaged from various vendors’ proposals as of 2011.
Pricing - Example Network #3
700 MHz LTE
Base Stations 200
Subscribers Supported 36,000
Total Investment $26,110,000
Investment per Subscriber $725
* Pricing data is averaged from various vendors’ proposals as of 2011.
Start to Finish Process
• Feasibility Study and Business Case
• Preliminary RF/Backhaul Network Design
• RFP Preparation, Proposal Analysis, and Contract
Negotiation
• Site Acquisition and Lease Negotiations
• Permitting / Legal
• Detailed RF/Backhaul Network Design
• Project Management and Asset Management
• Construction Management
• As Built Drawings
LTE Deployment Business Consideration: When &
How?
Relative Adoption of Technologies

3.9G

3G

2G

Rysavy Research projection based on historical data.

The reuse of existing 2G and 3G sites for NGMN will
keep site cost flat
LTE Deployment Scenario
Evolution of key concepts in SAE:
Closed Subscriber Group, access through Home-eNB

 Support for accessing the network through Home-eNBs

◦ H-eNBs can have closed cells and hybrid cells
 Basic architecture:

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Femtocell Motivation

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 Most Mobile Data Use Occurs Indoors

Source: Informa’s Mobile Access at Home Report

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Femtocell @ LTE

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Global LTE Commitments
25+ Operators in over 16 countries
Western Europe

Hutchison 3 - Ireland
North America Orange - France
Telecom Italia - Italy
Telia Sonera - Sweden
Aircell - USA Telia Sonera - Norway
AT&T Mobility – USA T-Mobile – Germany
Bell Canada - Canada ...
CenturyTel – USA
Cox - USA
MetroPCS - USA
Rogers Wireless - Canada
Telus - Canada
Verizon - USA
....
Asia-Pacific

China Mobile - China

China Telecom - Chna
KDDI - Japan
KTF - South Korea
New Zealand Telecom - NZ
NTT DoCoMo - Japan
Piltel - Philippines
SK Telecom - South Korea
SmarTone-Vodafone - Hong Kong
Telstra – Australia
....
Source. GSA March 2009
Global LTE Commitments
Trials

 Verizon Wireless —2009  TeliaSonera (Sweden, Norway) — 2010

 Telstra - 2009  Hutchison 3 (Ireland) — 2011
 MetroPCS — 2010  T-Mobile — 2011
 CenturyTel — 2010  Orange — 2011
 Aircell — 2011  China Mobile — 2011
 Cox — 2011  China Telecom — 2011–2012
 AT&T Mobility — 2011  Telecom New Zealand — 2011–2012
 NTT DoCoMo — 2010  SK Telecom (operates both CDMA EV-
 KDDI — 2010 DO and WCDMA/HSPA networks) —
TBD
 Rogers Wireless — 2010
 KT Freetel (operates both CDMA
 TELUS — 2010 EV-DO and WCDMA/HSPA networks)
 Bell Canada — 2010 — TBD
 Telecom New Zealand (operates both  Piltel — TBD
CDMA EV-DO and WCDMA/HSPA  SmarTone-Vodafone — TBD
networks) — 2010
End of Training
Session