Analisa Laporan

Keuangan
Pertemuan 13

Sofyan Ali, SE, MM

 Analisa
Prospektif
Sofyan Ali, SE, MM
 Analisis Prospektif
1.
1.
Proses Analisis
2. Prospektif

2.
AGENDA Free Cash Flow
3.
3.
 Analisis

01 Prospektif
Laporan Keuangan

Posisi & kinerja dari aktivitas bisnis akan tercermin dari Laporan keuangan perusahaan

Planning Financing
Investing
Current: Operating Current:
• Cash • Notes Payable
• Sales • Accounts Payable
• Accounts Receivable • Cost of Goods Sold
• Inventories • Salaries Payable
• Selling Expense
• Marketable Securities • Income Tax Payable
• Administrative Expense
Noncurrent: Noncurrent:
• Interest Expense

• Land, Buildings, & • Income Tax Expense

• Bonds Payable
Equipment • Common Stock
• Patents • Retained Earnings
• Investments Net Income

Liabilities & Equity

Income statement
Assets Cash Flow Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet Statement of Statement of

Cash Flows
Shareholders’ Equity
Laporan Keuangan

Laporan keuangan terdiri atas :

Balance Sheet

Income Statement

Statement of Shareholders’
Equity

Statement of Cash Flows

Komponen Proses Analisa Bisnis

Component Processes of
Business Analysis
Business
Environment &
Strategy Analysis

Industry Strategy
Analysis Analysis

Analisa Lap Keuangan

Analisis Laporan
Keuangan
merupakan kumpulan
Financial
proses analis yang Analysis
merupakan bagian yang
tidak terpisahkan dalam
Analysis
analisis bisnis
Accounting of cash
Prospective
Analysis flows Risk
Analysis
Profitability
Analysis Analysis

Cost of Capital Estimate Intrinsic Value

Analisis Prospektif ?

Analisis prospektif merupakan langkah

akhir dari proses analisis laporan
keuangan

Analisis ini dapat dilakukan hanya

setelah laporan keuangan historis
disesuaikan untuk mencerminkan
kinerja ekonomis perusahaan secara
akurat.
 “Analisis prospektif berguna untuk menguji ketepatan
rencana strategis perusahaan. “

“ Sehingga perlu dianalisis :

1. Apakah perusahaan mampu menghasilkan arus kas
operasi yang cukup untuk mendanai pertumbuhan yang
diharapkan, atau
2. Apakah perusahaan memerlukan pendanaan utang atau
ekuitas di masa depan.
3. Perlu dianalisis juga apakah rencana strategis kini akan
menghasilkan manfaat seperti yang diramalkan oleh
manajemen perusahaan
 Proses Analisa Prospektif

Proses Analisis prospektif dimulai dari pembuatan proyeksi laporan laba

rugi, diikuti dengan laporan posisi keuangan (neraca), dan laporan arus
kas.

Lap
Neraca Arus
Lap laba Kas
rugi
Manfaat Analisa Prospektif

Security Valuation - free cash flow and residual income

models require estimates of future financial statements.

Management Assessment - forecasts of financial

performance examine the viability of companies’ strategic
plans.

Assessment of Solvency - useful to creditors to assess a

company’s ability to meet debt service requirements, both
short-term and long-term.
 Proyeksi Lap

02 Laba Rugi
Projected Income Statement

Sales forecasts are a function of:

1) Historical trends

2) Expected level of macroeconomic activity

3) The competitive landscape

4) New versus old store mix (strategic

initiatives)
Projected Income Statement
Target Corporation Income Statements
(in millions) 2005 2004 2003
Sales.......................................................................................... $46,839 $42,025 $37,410
Cost of goods sold ..................................................................... 31,445 28,389 25,498
Gross profit................................................................................ 15,394 13,636 11,912
Selling, general and administrative expense ............................. 10,534 9,379 8,134
Depreciation and amortization expense ..................................... 1,259 1,098 967
Interest expense......................................................................... 570 556 584
Income before tax ...................................................................... 3,031 2,603 2,227
Income tax expense.................................................................... 1,146 984 851
Income (loss) from extraordinary items
and discontinued operations................................................. 1,313 190 247
Net income................................................................................. $ 3,198 $ 1,809 $ 1,623
Outstanding shares ................................................................... 891 912 910

Selected Ratios (in percent)

Sales growth............................................................................ 11.455% 12.336%
Gross profit margin.................................................................. 32.866 32.447
Selling, general and administrative expense/Sales ................. 22.49 22.318
Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E ........................... 6.333 5.245
Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt .............................. 5.173 4.982
Income tax expense/Pretax income........................................... 37.809 37.803
Projected Income Statement
Steps:
1. Project sales
2. Project cost of goods sold and gross profit margins
using historical averages as a percent of sales
3. Project SG&A expenses using historical averages as a
percent of sales
4. Project depreciation expense as an historical average
percentage of beginning-of-year depreciable assets
5. Project interest expense as a percent of beginning-of-
year interest-bearing debt using existing rates if fixed
and projected rates if variable
6. Project tax expense as an average of historical tax
expense to pre-tax income
Projected Income Statement

Target Corporation Projected Income Statement

1. Sales: $52,204 = $46,839 x 1.11455

2. Gross profit: $17,157 = $52,204 x 32.866%
3. Cost of goods sold: $35,047 = $52,204 - $17,157
4. Selling, general, and administrative: $11,741 = $52,204 x 22.49%
5. Depreciation and amortization: $1,410 =
$22,272 (beginning-period PP&E gross) x 6.333%
6. Interest: $493 = $9,538 (beginning-period interest-bearing debt) x 5.173%
7. Income before tax: $3,513 = $17,157 - $11,741 - $1,410 - $493
8. Tax expense: $1,328 = $3,513 x 37.809%
9. Extraordinary and discontinued items: none
10. Net income: $2,185 = $3,513 - $1,328
Projected Income Statement
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement

(in millions) Forecasting Step 2006 Estimate

Income statement
Total revenues......................................................................................... 1 $52,204
Cost of goods sold .................................................................................. 3 35,047
Gross profit............................................................................................. 2 17,157
Selling, general, and administrative expense ............................................ 4 11,741
Depreciation and amortization expense .................................................. 5 1,410
Interest expense...................................................................................... 6 493
Income before tax ................................................................................... 7 3,513
Income tax expense................................................................................. 8 1,328
Income (loss) from extraordinary items and discontinued operations ...... 9 0
Net income.............................................................................................. 10 $ 2,185
Outstanding shares ......................................................................... 891

Forecasting Assumptions (in percent)

Sales growth........................................................................................... 1 11.455%
Gross profit margin................................................................................. 1 32.866
Selling, general, and administrative expense/Sales ............................... 1 22.49
Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E .......................................... 1 6.333
Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt............................................. 1 5.173
Income tax expense/Pretax income ......................................................... 1 37.809
 Proyeksi

03 Neraca
Projected Balance Sheet

1. Buatlah proyeksi aset lancar selain kas dengan menggunakan

proyeksi penjualan atau harga pokok penjualan dan rasio perputaran
yang relevan seperti dijelaskan di bawah ini..

2. Buatlah proyeksi kenaikan aset tetap dengan estimasi pengeluaran

modal yang didasarkan pada tren historis atau informasi dalam
bagian MD&A (Diskusi dan Analisis Manajemen) di laporan tahunan.

3. Buatlah proyeksi kewajiban lancar selain utang dengan

menggunakan proyeksi penjualan atau harga pokok penjualan dan
rasio perputaran yang relevan seperti dijelaskan di bawah ini.

4. Hitunglah bagian lancar utang jangka panjang (bagian yang jatuh

tempo) dari catatan utang jangka panjang.

5. Utang jangka pendek lainnya diasumsikan tidak berubah dari tahun-

tahun sebelumnya kecuali menunjukkan tren yang jelas berbeda.

(continued)
Projected Balance Sheet

6. Saldo awal utang jangka panjang diasumsikan sama dengan utang jangka
panjang tahun lalu dikurangi bagian yang jatuh tempo dari butir (4) di atas.

7. Asumsikan kewajiban jangka panjang lainnya sama dengan saldo tahun lalu,
kecuali menunjukkan tren yang jelas berbeda

8. Saham biasa awal diasumsikan sama dengan saldo tahun lalu.

9. Laba ditahan diasumsikan sama dengan saldo tahun lalu ditambah (dikurangi)
dengan laba (rugi) bersih dan dikurang dividen yang diperkirakan.

10. Pos ekuitas lainnya diasumsikan sama dengan saldo tahun lalu, kecuali
menunjukkan tren yang jelas berbeda.
Projected Balance Sheet
Target Corporation Balance Sheet
(in millions) 2005 2004 2003
Cash ..................................................................................
$ 2,245 $ 708 $ 758
Receivables .......................................................................5,069 4,621 5,565
Inventories .........................................................................
5,384 4,531 4,760
Other current assets .......................................................... 1,224 3,092 852
Total current assets....................................................... 13,922 12,952 11,935
Property, plant, and equipment (PP&E).............................. 22,272 19,880 20,936
Accumulated depreciation ................................................. 5,412 4,727 5,629
Net property, plant, and equipment ................................... 16,860 15,153 15,307
Other assets ......................................................................1,511 3,311 1,361
Total assets .......................................................................
$32,293 $31,416 $28,603
Accounts payable............................................................... $ 5,779 $ 4,956 $ 4,684
Current portion of long-term debt......................................504 863 975
Accrued expenses .............................................................. 1,633 1,288 1,545
Income taxes & other ......................................................... 304 1,207 319
Total current liabilities .................................................. 8,220 8,314 7,523
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities........................ 2,010 1,815 1,451
Long-term debt.................................................................. 9,034 10,155 10,186
Total liabilities ..............................................................19,264 20,284 19,160
Common stock ...................................................................74 76 76
Additional paid-in capital.................................................. 1,810 1,530 1,256
Retained earnings ............................................................. 11,145 9,526 8,111
Shareholders’ equity...................................................... 13,029 11,132 9,443
Total liabilities and net worth ............................................ $32,293 $31,416 $28,603

Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate.................................... 9.240 9.094 6.722
Inventory turnover rate.....................................................5.840 6.266 5.357
Accounts payable turnover rate ....................................... 5.441 5.728 5.444
Accrued expenses turnover rate ....................................... 28.683 32.628 24.214
Taxes payable/Tax expense...............................................
26.527% 122.663% 37.485%
Dividends per share .........................................................
$ 0.310 $ 0.260 $ 0.240
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions ...................... 3,012 2,671 3,189
CAPEX/Sales ....................................................................
6.431% 6.356% 8.524%
Projected Balance Sheet
Steps in Projection (Target)

1 Receivables: $5,650 = $52,204 (Sales)/9.24 (Receivable turnover).

2 Inventories: $6,001 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.84 (Inventory turnover).
3 Other current assets: no change.
4 PP&E: $25,629 = $22,272 (Prior year’s balance) + $3,357 (Capital expenditure
estimate: estimated sales of $52,204 = 6.431% CAPEX/sales percentage).
5 Accumulated depreciation: $6,822 = $5,412 (Prior balance) + $1,410 (Depreciation
estimate).
6 Net PP&E: $18,807 = $25,629 - $6,822.
7 Other long-term assets: no change.
8 Accounts payable: $6,441 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.441 (Payable
turnover).
9 Current portion of long-term debt: amount reported in long-term debt footnote
as the current maturity for 2006.
10 Accrued expenses: $1,820 $52,204 (Sales)/28.683 (Accrued expense turnover).
11 Taxes payable: $352 = $1,328 (Tax expense) x 26.527% (Tax payable/Tax
expense).
12 Deferred income taxes and other liabilities: no change.
13 Long-term debt: $8,283 = $9,034 (Prior year’s long-term debt) - $751 (Scheduled
current maturities from step 9).
14 Common stock: no change.
15 Additional paid-in capital: no change.
16 Retained earnings: $13,054 = $11,145 (Prior year’s retained earnings) + $2,185
(Projected net income) - $276 (Estimated dividends of $0.31 per share x 891
million shares).
17 Cash: amount needed to balance total liabilities and equity less steps (1)–(7).
Projected Balance Sheet
Target Corporation Balance Sheet
Forecasting 2006 2005
(in millions) Step Estimate
Cash .......................................................................... 17 $ 1,402 $ 2,245
Receivables ............................................................... 1 5,650 5,069
Inventories................................................................. 2 6,001 5,384
Other current assets .................................................. 3 1,224 1,224
Total current assets ..................................... 14,277 13,922
Property, plant, and equipment.................................. 4 25,629 22,272
Accumulated depreciation ......................................... 5 6,822 5,412
Net property, plant, and equipment ........................... 6 18,807 16,860
Other assets .............................................................. 7 1,511 1,511
Total assets ................................................ $34,595 $32,293
Accounts payable....................................................... 8 $ 6,441 $ 5,779
Current portion of long-term debt.............................. 9 751 504
Accrued expenses ...................................................... 10 1,820 1,633
Income taxes & other ................................................. 11 352 304
Total current liabilities.................................... 9,364 8,220
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities................ 12 2,010 2,010
Long-term debt.......................................................... 13 8,283 9,034
Total liabilities ............................................. 19,657 19,264
Common stock ........................................................... 14 74 74
Additional paid-in capital.......................................... 15 1,810 1,810
Retained earnings ..................................................... 16 13,054 11,145
Shareholders’ equity ...................................... 14,938 13,029
Total liabilities and net worth......................... $34,595 $32,293
Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate.................... 9.240 9.240
Inventory turnover rate.................................... 5.840 5.840
Accounts payable turnover rate ....................... 5.441 5.441
Accrued expenses turnover rate ...................... 28.683 28.683
Taxes payable/Tax expense............................. 26.527% 26.527%
Dividends per share......................................... $ 0.310 $ 0.310
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions......... 3,357 3,012
CAPEX/Sales ................................................. 6.431% 6.431%
Projected Balance Sheet

Jika taksiran saldo kas jauh lebih tinggi atau lebih rendah,
penyesuaian lebih lanjut dapat dilakukan untuk:

1. menginvestasikan kelebihan uang tunai dalam surat berharga

2. mengurangi utang dan/atau ekuitas jangka panjang secara
proporsional untuk menjaga tingkat leverage keuangan konsisten
dengan tahun-tahun sebelumnya.
 Proyeksi

04 Cash Flow
Projected Cash Flow
Target Corporation Projected Statement of Cash Flows
Terimakasih