Chapter Twelve 1

A PowerPoint

Tutorial
to Accompany macroeconomics, 5th ed.
N. Gregory Mankiw








BAB 12
Permintaan Agregat dalam
Perekonomian Terbuka
Chapter Twelve 2
Analisis AD dengan memasukkan
perdagangan dan keuangan internasional.
Model Mundell-Fleming (MF) : versi
perekonomian terbuka dari model IS-LM
Asumsi model MF/IS-LM: tingkat harga
tetap, apa yang menyebabkan fluktuasi jk
pendek dlm AD
Chapter Twelve 3
Asumsi penting model MF: Perekonomian
terbuka kecil dengan modal mobilitas
sempurna.
tingkat bunga ekonomi domestik ditentukan
tingkat bunga dunia *
bisa memusatkan perhatian pada peran kurs.
Chapter Twelve 4
MODEL MUNDELL-FLEMING
Asumsi r = r*
Tingkat bunga dunia tetap secara eksogen
Mis. Jk pendek r naik sedikit, maka pihak
asing akan mulai memberi pinjaman.
Akhirnya bunga domestik kembali menuju
r*.
Chapter Twelve 5
Pasar Barang dan Kurva IS*
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e)
Ekspor neto berhub negative dengan kurs e.
e = jumlah mata uang asing per unit mata
uang domestik. Mis e adalah 9200 rupiah
per dolar US
Chapter Twelve 6
Kurs riil : harga relatif dari barang2 di
dalam dan LN
Kurs nominal : harga relatif dari mata uang
domestik dan asing
Jika e = kurs nominal, maka
Kurs riil = eP/P* (P= harga domestik, P*
harga LN)
Chapter Twelve 7
Asumsi Model MF : tingkat harga dalam
dan LN tetap.
Maka kurs riil proporsional terhadap kurs
nominal.
Misal kurs nominal berapresiasi, barang LN
menjadi lebih murah, maka ekspor turun,
impor naik. (grafik 12.1)
Chapter Twelve 8
Gbr 12.1
NX
Y
Y
E
e
NX
IS
Y=AE
r
Planned Expenditure,
E = C + I + G + NX
Chapter Twelve 9
Ket Gambar 12.1
Kurva IS* miring ke bawah karena kurs
yang lebih tinggi, mengurangi ekspor neto,
menurunkan Y.
kenaikan kurs mengurangi ekspor neto
penurunan NX, menggeser pengeluaran yg
direncanakan ke bawah menurunkan Y
Kurva IS* meringkas hub r dan Y
Chapter Twelve 10
Pasar Uang dan Kurva LM*
M/P = L (r*, Y)
Keseimbangan uang riil M/P sama dengan
permintaan, L(r*, Y)
M var eksogen, dikendalikan bank sentral
Jangka pendek, maka P tetap secara
eksogen
Chapter Twelve 11
Persamaan LM* : menentukan pendapatan
agregat tanpa pertimbangan kurs
Gbr 12.2
e
Income, Output, Y
LM*
Chapter Twelve 12
Merakit Bagian Model
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e) IS*
M/P = L (r*, Y) LM*
Var eksogen : G, T, M, P, r*
Var endogen : Y dan kurs e

Chapter Twelve 13


Gbr 12.3Ekuilibrium menunjukkan kurs dan tingkat
pendapatan di mana pasar barang & pasar uang dalam
ekuilibrium

e
Income, Output, Y
LM*
IS
Chapter Twelve 14
KURS MENGAMBANG (floating
exchange rates)
Kurs dibiarkan berfluktuasi dengan bebas
untuk menanggapi kondisi ekonomi yang
sedang berubah
Chapter Twelve 15
Kebijakan Fiskal Gbr 12.4
Y
e
IS2
IS1
LM
Chapter Twelve 16
Keterangan Gbr 12.4
Peningkatan G atau penurunan T : begitu r
> r*, maka modal LN masuk permintaan
uang meningkat nilai mata uang
domestik naik kurs mata uang domestic
relative mahal terhadap produk asing
mengurangi ekspor neto mengoffset
dampak ekspansioner pendapatan
Chapter Twelve 17
Kebijakan Moneter
Meningkatkan jumlah uang beredar
kenaikan keseimbangan uang riil
menggeser LM*
M naik modal mengalir keluar kurs
mengalami depresiasi ekspor neto
meningkat pendapatan
Jadi meningkatkan pendapatan dan
menurunkan kurs
Chapter Twelve 18
Gbr 12.5.
Y
e
LM2
LM1
IS
Chapter Twelve 19
Kebijakan Perdagangan
Gbr 12.6.
Chapter Twelve 20
Pemberlakuan kuota impor/tariff brg impor
Berarti kenaikan ekspor neto (a)
meningkatkan pengeluaran yang
direncanakan menggeser IS ke kanan
tidak mempengaruhi pendapatan.
Karena tidak mempengaruhi Y, C, I, G,
hambatan perdagangan tidak mempengaruhi
neraca perdagangan.
Jadi pergeseran ekspor neto NX, kenaikan
kurs mengurangi NX dalam jumlah yang
sama
Chapter Twelve 21
KURS TETAP (fixed exchange
rates)
Bank sentral siap membeli atau menjual
mata uang domestic untuk mata uang asing
pada harga yang telah ditetapkan
sebelumnya.
Tujuan : mempertahankan kurs pada tingkat
yang telah diumumkan, jumlah uang yang
beredar menyesuaikan berapapun kurs yang
menjamin kurs ekuilibrium.
Chapter Twelve 22
Gbr 12.7.

Chapter Twelve 23
Kurs ekuilibrium > tingkat tetapnya
pialang akan membeli mata uang asing,
menjualnya pada BI untuk mendapatkan
laba meningkatkan jumlah uang beredar
menggeser LM* ke kanan
menurunkan kurs. Demikian sebaliknya.
Chapter Twelve 24
Kebijakan fiskal Pada Fixed ER
G atau T IS* naik ke kanan. Jumlah
uang beredar ditingkatkan, untuk
mempertahankan kurs, melalui pialang yang
menjual mata uang asing ke bank sentra
LM* ke kanan Y meningkat

Chapter Twelve 25
Gbr 12.8 Kebijakan Fiskal

Chapter Twelve 26
Kebijakan Moneter Pada Fixed ER
Misal meningkatkan jumlah uang beredar,
LM* bgeser tapi bank sentral akan
membuat LM* kembali.
Dengan menyepakati kurs tetap, bank
sentral meningkatkan kontrolnya atas
jumlah uang beredar.
Chapter Twelve 27
Gbr 12.9. Kebijakan moneter

Chapter Twelve 28
Negara bisa mengubah tingkat kurs tetap
Penurunan nilai mata uang : devaluasi
(LM* kekanan)
Kenaikan nilai mata uang : revaluasi (LM*
kekiri)
Chapter Twelve 29
Kebijakan Perdagangan
Gbr 12.10

Chapter Twelve 30
Mengurangi impor/kuota NX bertambah IS*
ke kanan, cenderung menaikkan kurs. Agar kurs
tetap, jumlah uang beredar harus naik LM* ke
kanan.
Jasi ekspor neto meningkat, karena mendorong
ekspansi moneter (bukan apresiasi kurs). Akhirnya
meningkatkan pendapatan agregat.
NX = S I
Pendapatan , tabungan , menunjukkan NX
Chapter Twelve 31
Model MF
Dampak kebijakan (mempengaruhi
pendapatan) tergantung apakah dalam
kondisi kurs mengambang atau kurs tetap.
Kurs mengambang : kebijakan moneter
Kurs tetap : kebijakan fiskal
Chapter Twelve 32
Tabel 12.1. Ringkasan Dampak
Kebijakan
Rezim Kurs
Mengambang Tetap
berdampak pada
Y e NX Y e NX
Kebijakan Fiskal 0 0 0
Ekspansi moneter 0 0 0
Hambatan impor 0 0 0
Chapter Twelve 33
PERBEDAAN TINGKAT BUNGA
Asumsi : tingkat bunga r = r*
Diperluas : sebab dan dampak perbedaan tingkat
bunga internasional
Dengan r = r*, maka mobilitas dana ke luar
masuk.
Kenapa tidak selalu berjalan?
Alasan 1: Resiko Negara / resiko politik
Alasan 2: Ekspektasi kurs
Chapter Twelve 34
Memasukkan perbedaan tingkat bunga dlm model
Mundel Fleming
R = r* + ( = premi tingkat resiko)
Misal kemelut politik, premi resiko naik r bunga
domestik naik ; memiliki 2 dampak :
- Kurva IS* bergeser ke kiri (investasi turun)
-Kurva LM* bergeser ke atas karena permintaan
uang turun pendapatan naik (krn ekspor neto)
Akibatnya: pendapatan naik, mata uang terdepresiasi
Chapter Twelve 35
In the other words
Jadi ekspektasi bahwa mata uang akan
kehilangan nilainya di masa depan
menyebabkan mata uang itu
kehilangan nilainya pada saat ini.
(terdepresiasi)

Chapter Twelve 36
Gbr 12.11.


Chapter Twelve 37
Apa benar pendapatan naik? Kenyataan:
Tidak!
Bank sentral menurunkan jumlah uang
beredar utk mengurangi depresiasi mata
uang
Barang impor yang mahal akan
meningkatkan P
Premi resiko yang naik, permintaan uang
meningkat, LM* bergeser ke kiri
Ketiga perubahan: menggeser LM ke kiri.
Chapter Twelve 38
Jadi kenaikan resiko pada Negara tidak
dikehendaki.
Jangka pendek : - mata uang terdepresiasi
- pendapatan menurun
Jangka panjang: tingkat bunga tinggi
mengurangi investasi, pertumbuhan
ekonomi lebih renda
Chapter Twelve 39
Apakah pilihan kurs mengambang atau tetap?
Jarang kurs yang seutuhnya tetap atau mengambang
Indonesia : nilai tukar mengambang terkendali

Kurs mengambang :
+Kebijakan moneter dapat digunakan utk tujuan lain
misal menstabilkan kesempatan kerja atau harga

Kurs tetap:
+Kepastian perdagangan internasional
+Mendisiplinkan pemegang otoritas moneter negara
Chapter Twelve 40
Model MF dengan Perubahan Tingkat Harga
Gbr 12.12 menunjukkan ketika harga turun
Income, Output,Y
Income, Output,Y
IS*
AD
LM* LM*
P
e
Chapter Twelve 41
Gbr 12.12
Harga turun LM* bergeser ke kanan
menurunkan kurs riil pendapatan naik
(gbr a)
AD : hub negatif antara P dan Y (gbr b)
Chapter Twelve 42
Gbr 12.13. Ekuilibrium Jk pendek
dan Jk panjang

Chapter Twelve 43
K : ekuilibrium jk pendek.
Permintaan rendah, tingkat harga turun.
Keseimbangan uang riil LM* bergeser ke
kanan.
Kurs terdepresiasi, ekspor neto naik,
sehingga jangka panjang titik C,
perekonomian alamiah.

Chapter Twelve 44
Chapter Twelve 45

Chapter Twelve 46

Chapter Twelve 47
Introducing
e
Income, Output, Y
LM*
IS*
Equilibrium
exchange rate
Equilibrium Income
Chapter Twelve 48
Assumption 1:
The domestic interest rate is equal to the world interest rate (r = r*).
Assumption 2:
The price level is exogenously fixed since the model is used to analyze
the short run (P). This implies that the nominal exchange rate is
proportional to the real exchange rate.
Assumption 3:
The money supply is also set exogenously by the central bank (M).
Assumption 4:
Our LM* curve will be vertical because the exchange rate does not enter
into our LM* equation.
IS*: Y = C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e)
LM*: M/P = L (r*,Y)
Start with these two equations:
Chapter Twelve 49
E
Income, Output, Y
Y=E
Planned Expenditure,
E = C + I + G + NX
r
Income, Output, Y
e
Net Exports, NX
NX(e)
IS*
An increase in the exchange
rate, lowers net exports,
which shifts planned
expenditure downward and
lowers income. The IS*
curve summarizes these
changes in the goods market
equilibrium.
(a)
(b)
(c)
Chapter Twelve 50
r
Income, Output, Y
LM
e
Income, Output, Y
LM*
r = r*
The LM curve and
the world interest
rate together determine
the level of income.
Chapter Twelve 51
e
Income, Output, Y
LM*
IS*
e
Income, Output, Y
LM*
IS*
IS*'
LM*'
When income rises in a small open economy, due to
the fiscal expansion, the interest rate tries to rise but
capital inflows from abroad put downward pressure
on the interest rate.This inflow causes an increase in
the demand for the currency pushing up its value
and thus making domestic goods more expensive
to foreigners (causing a DNX). The DNX offsets
the expansionary fiscal policy and the effect on Y.
When the increase in the money supply puts downward
pressure on the domestic interest rate, capital flows out
as investors seek a higher return elsewhere. The capital
outflow prevents the interest rate from falling. The
outflow also causes the exchange rate to depreciate
making domestic goods less expensive relative to
foreign goods, and stimulates NX. Hence, monetary
policy influences the e rather than r.
+DG, or DT
+De, no DY
+DM
-De, +DY
The Mundell-Fleming Model
Under Floating Exchange Rates
Chapter Twelve 52
e
Income, Output, Y
LM*
IS*
e
Income, Output, Y
LM*
IS*
IS*'
A fiscal expansion shifts IS* to the right. To maintain
the fixed exchange rate, the Fed must increase the
money supply, thus increasing LM* to the right.
Unlike the case with flexible exchange rates, there is no
crowding out effect on NX due to a higher exchange
rate.
If the Fed tried to increase the money supply by
buying bonds from the public, that would put down-
ward pressure on the interest rate. Arbitragers respond
by selling the domestic currency to the central bank,
causing the money supply and the LM curve
to contract to their initial positions.
+DG, or DT + DY
LM*'
+DM no DY
The Mundell-Fleming Model
Under Fixed Exchange Rates
Chapter Twelve 53
Fixed vs. Floating
Exchange Rate Conclusions
Fixed Exchange Rates Floating Exchange Rates
Fiscal Policy is Powerful.
Monetary Policy is Powerless.

Fiscal Policy is Powerless.
Monetary Policy is Powerful.
The Mundell-Fleming model shows that fiscal policy does not influence
aggregate income under floating exchange rates. A fiscal expansion
causes the currency to appreciate, reducing net exports and offsetting
the usual expansionary impact on aggregate demand.

The Mundell Fleming model shows that monetary policy does not
influence aggregate income under fixed exchange rates. Any attempt
to expand the money supply is futile, because the money supply
must adjust to ensure that the exchange rate stays at its announced level.
Hint: (Think of floating money.)
Hint: (Fixed and Fiscal sound alike).
Chapter Twelve 54
Policy in the Mundell-Fleming Model:
A Summary
The Mundell-Fleming model shows that the effect of almost any
economic policy on a small open economy depends on whether the
exchange rate is floating or fixed.

The Mundell-Fleming model shows that the power of monetary and
fiscal policy to influence aggregate demand depends on the exchange
rate regime.
Chapter Twelve 55
The higher return will attract funds from the rest of
the world, driving the US interest rate back down.
And, if the interest rate were below the world
interest rate, domestic residents would lend
abroad to earn a higher return, driving the domestic
interest rate back up. In the end, the domestic
interest rate would equal the world interest rate.

What if the domestic
interest rate were above
the world interest rate?

Chapter Twelve 56
Why doesnt this logic always apply? There are two reasons why interest
rates differ across countries:

1) Country Risk: when investors buy US government bonds, or make
loans to US corporations, they are fairly confident that they will be
repaid with interest. By contrast, in some less developed countries, it
is plausible to fear that political upheaval may lead to a default on loan
repayments. Borrowers in such countries often have to pay higher
interest rates to compensate lenders for this risk.

2) Exchange Rate Expectations: suppose that people expect the French
franc to fall in value relative to the US dollar. Then loans made in francs
will be repaid in a less valuable currency than loans made in dollars. To
compensate for the expected fall in the French currency, the interest rate
in France will be higher than the interest rate in the US.
Chapter Twelve 57
Differentials in the Mundell-Fleming Model
To incorporate interest-rate differentials into the Mundell-Fleming
model, we assume that the interest rate in our small open economy
is determined by the world interest rate plus a risk premium q.
r = r* + q
The risk premium is determined by the perceived political risk of
making loans in a country and the expected change in the real interest
rate. Well take the risk premium q as exogenously determined.



For any given fiscal policy, monetary policy, price level, and risk
premium, these two equations determine the level of income and
exchange rate that equilibrate the goods market and the money market.
IS*: Y = C(Y-T) + I(r* + q) + G + NX(e)
LM*: M/P = L (r* + q,Y)
Chapter Twelve 58
Now suppose that political turmoil causes the countrys risk premium q
to rise. The most direct effect is that the domestic interest rate r rises.
The higher interest rate has two effects:
1) IS* curve shifts to the left, because the higher interest rate reduces
investment.
2) LM* shifts to the right, because the higher interest rate reduces the
demand for money, and this allows a higher level of income for any
given money supply.
These two shifts cause income to rise and thus push down the equilibrium
exchange rate on world markets.
The important implication: expectations of the exchange rate are partially
self-fulfilling. For example, suppose that people come to believe that the
French franc will not be valuable in the future. Investors will place a
larger risk premium on French assets: q will rise in France. This
expectation will drive up French interest rates and will drive down the
value of the French franc. Thus, the expectation that a currency will lose
value in the future causes it to lose value today. The next slide will
demonstrate the mechanics.
Chapter Twelve 59
e
Income, Output, Y
LM*
IS*
LM*'
IS*'
An Increase in the Risk Premium
An increase in the risk premium associated with a country drives up
its interest rate. Because the higher interest rate reduces investment,
the IS* curve shifts to the left. Because it also reduces money
demand, the LM* curve shifts to the right. Income rises, and the
exchange rate depreciates.
Is this really is where
the economy ends
up? In the next slide,
well see that
increases in country
risk are not desirable.
Chapter Twelve 60
There are three reasons why, in practice, such a boom in income
does not occur. First, the central bank might want to avoid the large
depreciation of the domestic currency and, therefore, may respond
by decreasing the money supply M. Second, the depreciation of the
domestic currency may suddenly increase the price of domestic goods,
causing an increase in the overall price level P. Third, when some event
increase the country risk premium q, residents of the country might
respond to the same event by increasing their demand for money (for
any given income and interest rate), because money is often the
safest asset available. All three of these changes would tend to shift
the LM* curve toward the left, which mitigates the fall in the exchange
rate but also tends to depress income.
Chapter Twelve 61
IS*: Y=C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e)
LM*: M/P=L (r*,Y)
Recall the two equations of the Mundell-Fleming model:
e
Income, Output,Y
LM*
IS*
LM*'
P
Income, Output,Y
AD
When the price level falls the LM*
curve shifts to the right. The
equilibrium level of income rises.

The second graph displays the
negative relationship between P and
Y, which is summarized by the
aggregate demand curve.
Chapter Twelve 62
Mundell-Fleming Model
Floating exchange rates
Fixed exchange rates
Devaluation
Revaluation
Chapter Twelve 63

Chapter Twelve 64