Soal :

1. Dengan menggunakan data berikut :

A. Hitung Perbandingan hasil Pengukuran dispersi
B. Hitung Kala Ulang 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, dan 100 tahun dengan menggunakan Distribusi Normal, Log Normal, Log Pearson III, Gumbell

Tahun Curah Hujan Xi

(mm)
2004 134
2005 173
2006 241
2007 131
2008 121
2009 126
2010 106
2011 138
2012 234
2013 245

Jawaban :

Curah Hujan Xi
Tahun (mm) 〖 (𝑥𝑖− 〖 (𝑥𝑖−𝑥 ̅ 〖 (𝑥𝑖−𝑥 ̅ 〖 (𝑥𝑖−𝑥 ̅ ) Log Xi
〖 (⁡𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑥𝑖−log⁡𝑥 ̅ ) 〗 〖 (⁡𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑥𝑖−log⁡𝑥 ̅ ) 〗 〖 (⁡𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑥𝑖−log⁡𝑥 ̅ ) 〗
𝑥 ̅ ) 〗 ^ ) 〗 ^2 ) 〗 ^3 〗 ^4 ^2 ^3 ^4
2004 134 -30.9 954.81 -29503.629 911662.136100001 2.127105 0.00490159703942 -0.000343167702802 2.40256535368521E-05
2005 173 8.1 65.61 531.440999999999 4304.67209999999 2.238046 0.001675256572303 6.8568081078658E-05 2.80648458304332E-06
2006 241 76.1 5791.21 440711.081 33538113.2641 2.382017 0.034188319787699 0.006321448968813 0.001168841209906
2007 131 -33.9 1149.21 -38958.219 1320683.6241 2.117271 0.006375209525816 -0.000509028025746 4.06432964980507E-05
2008 121 -43.9 1927.21 -84604.519 3714138.3841 2.082785 0.0130715397274 -0.001494480045801 0.000170865150845
2009 126 -38.9 1513.21 -58863.869 2289804.5041 2.100371 0.009359722678979 -0.000905512545583 8.76044086273911E-05
2010 106 -58.9 3469.21 -204336.469 12035418.0241 2.025306 0.029518792791792 -0.005071633813996 0.000871359127885
2011 138 -26.9 723.61 -19465.109 523611.4321 2.139879 0.00327608772945 -0.000187513821452 1.07327508110549E-05
2012 234 69.1 4774.81 329939.371 22798810.5361 2.369216 0.029618290407917 0.005097297488335 0.000877243126688
2013 245 80.1 6416.01 513922.401 41165184.3201 2.389166 0.036883156217747 0.007083405707369 0.001360367212583
Jumlah 1649 0 26784.9 849372.479999999 118301730.897 21.971162 0.168868 0.010059 0.004614
Rata-rata (x) 164.9 2.197116

A. Parameter Statistik

Standar Deviasi (S) = 54.554

Koefisien Skewness (Cs) = 0.727

Koefisien Curtosis (Ck) = 1.855

Koefisien Variasi (Cv) = 0.331

Parameter Statistik Logaritma

Standar Deviasi (S) = 0.137

Koefisien Skewness (Cs) = 0.544

Koefisien Curtosis (Ck) = 1.820

𝐶𝑘= (𝑛.∑▒ 〖 ( 〖𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑥〗 _𝑖−𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑥) 〗 ^4 )/((𝑛−1)(𝑛−2).𝑆^4 )

Koefisien Variasi (Cv) = 0.062

𝐶𝑣= 𝑆𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑥/(log⁡𝑥𝑖 ) ̅

Hasil Dispersi Jenis Distribusi Syarat Perhitungan Kesimpulan

No. Dispersi Parameter
Parameter Statistik
Statistik Logaritma Normal Cs ≈ 0 Cs = 0,727 Tidak Memenuhi

1 Sx 54.554 0.137 Ck ≈ 3 Ck = 1,855 Tidak Memenuhi

2 Cs 0.727 0.544 Gumbell Cs ≤ 1.1396 Cs = 0,728 Memenuhi

3 Ck 1.855 1.820 Ck ≤ 5.4002 Ck = 1,856 Memenuhi

4 Cv 0.331 0.062 Log Pearson Cs ≠ 0 Cs = 0,544 Memenuhi

Log Normal Cs ≈ 3Cv + (Cv²) = 3 3Cv + (Cv²) = 0,1909 Tidak Memenuhi
Ck = 5.383 Ck = 1,820 Tidak Memenuhi

B. DISTRIBUSI
a) Distribusi Gumbell

Rumus :

Berdasarkan tabel Reduce Mean (Yn) dan Reduce Standar Deviation (Sn)
Sn = 0.9496
Yn = 0.4952

Hujan Rencana (Xt)

Periode Ulang (tahun) Yt Yn Sn Kt X ̅ S
(mm)
2 0.3665 0.4952 0.9496 -0.1355 164.9 54.554 157.5063
5 1.4999 0.4952 0.9496 1.0580 164.9 54.554 222.6191
10 2.2502 0.4952 0.9496 1.8481 164.9 54.554 265.7231
20 2.9606 0.4952 0.9496 2.5963 164.9 54.554 306.5350
50 3.9019 0.4952 0.9496 3.5875 164.9 54.554 360.6118
100 4.6001 0.4952 0.9496 4.3228 164.9 54.554 400.7227

b) Distribusi Normal

Rumus :

Nilai Kt berdasarkan tabel Gauss

Hujan Rencana (Xt)
Periode Ulang (tahun) Kt X ̅ S (mm)
2 0 164.9 54.554 164.900
5 0.84 164.9 54.554 210.725
10 1.28 164.9 54.554 234.729
20 1.64 164.9 54.554 254.368
50 2.05 164.9 54.554 276.735
100 2.33 164.9 54.554 292.010

c) Distribusi Log Normal

Rumus :

Nilai Kt berdasarkan tabel Gauss

Hujan Rencana (Xt)
Periode Ulang (tahun) Kt (logxi) ̅ S Log X (mm)

2 0 2.197 0.137 2.19712 157.4404

5 0.84 2.197 0.137 2.31218 205.2004
10 1.28 2.197 0.137 2.37245 235.7484
20 1.64 2.197 0.137 2.42176 264.0955
50 2.05 2.197 0.137 2.47792 300.5537
100 2.33 2.197 0.137 2.51628 328.3039

d) Distribusi Log Pearson tipe III

Rumus :

Nilai Kt berdasarkan tabel Log Pearson III dgn Koef. G = 0,5

Hujan Rencana (Xt)
Periode Ulang (tahun) Kt (logxi) ̅ S Log X (mm)
2 -0.083 2.197 0.137 2.18575 153.3723
5 0.806 2.197 0.137 2.30752 203.0116
10 1.323 2.197 0.137 2.37834 238.9675
20 0 0.000 0.137 0.00000 0.0000
50 2.311 2.197 0.137 2.51367 326.3424
100 2.686 2.197 0.137 2.56504 367.3165