No. Sumber Nilai Nilai (N) Bobot (B) (%) Nilai Akhir
1 Tugas + Quiz N1 20 N1 x 20%
2 UTS N2 40 N2 x 40%
3 UAS N3 40 N3 x 40%
Total 100% 100
Nilai Huruf :
No. Nilai Bobot Nilai Rentang Nilai
1 A 4,00 X ≥ 85
2 A- 3,75 80 ≤ X < 85
3 B+ 3,50 75 ≤ X < 80
4 B 3,00 70 ≤ X < 75
5 B- 2,75 65 ≤ X < 70
6 C+ 2,50 60 ≤ X < 65
7 C 2,00 55 ≤ X < 60
8 D 1,00 45 ≤ X < 55
9 E 0,00 X < 45
BUKU-BUKU TENTANG PERENCANAAN & PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI
Anil Kumar and N. Suresh, 2008. Production and operation management (With
skill development, caseletes and cases). New Age Int. Limited Publishers, New
Delhi, 271 pgs.
Location of
facilities Plant layouts
Maintenance
management and material
handling
PRODUCTION &
Materials OPERATIONS Product
management MANAGEMENT design
Quality
control Production Process
and planning design
control
Konstelasi Keilmuan P3
POKOK BAHASAN
❑ PERANAN PERENCANAAN DAN
PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI
❑ PRODUKSI & SISTEM PRODUKSI
❑ LAYOUT FASILITAS PRODUKSI &
PENANGANAN MATERIAL
❑ RUANG LINGKUP
RUANG LINGKUP
1. Pendahuluan dan Arti
2. Kebutuhan Perencanaan Produksi dan Kontrol
(Production Planning & Control)
3. Tujuan PP & C
4. Fase PP & C
5. Fungsi PP & C
6. Perencanaan dan Penjadwalan Operasi Sistem
7. Perencanaan Agregat
8. Jadwal Produksi Induk
9. Perencanaan Kebutuhan Material
10. Perencanaan Kapasitas
11. Perutean (Routing)
12. Penjadwalan
13. Metodologi Penjadwalan
Peranan Perencanaan dan Pengendalian
Produksi
Tujuan perusahaan : Tuntutan konsumen :
memperoleh kualitas baik, harga
murah, penyerahaan
keuntungan, tepat volume dan waktu,
keberlanjutan dan produk fleksibel dan
pengembangan usaha variatif
Perencanaan dan
Pengendalian
Produksi
Tujuan P3 : merencanakan dasar-dasar proses
produksi dan aliran bahan, sehingga
menghasilkan produk yang dibutuhkan pada
waktu yang ditetapkan dengan biaya yang
seminimum mungkin, dan mengatur serta
menganalisa pengorganisasian dan
pengkoordinasian bahan-bahan, mesin–mesin
peralatan, tenaga manusia dan tindakan-
tindakan lain yang dibutuhkan.
Untuk mencapai tujuan perusahaan, diperlukan adanya
pengkoordinasiaan managemen dari berbagai bagian atau
antar kegiatan, sehingga dapat dicapai suatu kerjasama
yang baik antara bagian pembelian, bagian teknik
(engineering), akuntan dan bagian penjualan sebagai satu
team yang terkoordinasi untuk memproduksi dan menjual
hasil produksi dengan efektif dan efisien
TRANSFORMATION
INPUT OUTPUT
PROCESS
❖Man ❑Products
➢Product Design
❖Materials ❑Services
❖Machine ➢Process Planning
❖Information ➢Production Control
❖Capital ➢Maintenance
Continous :
•Inventory
•Quality
Environment •Cost
Feedback Information
Schematic Production System
Model of Production System
Classification of Production System
Production /
Operations Continous
Volume Production
Mass
Production
Batch
Production
Job-Shop
Production
Characteristics
The Job-shop production system is followed when there is:
✓ 1. High variety of products and low volume.
✓ 2. Use of general purpose machines and facilities.
✓ 3. Highly skilled operators who can take up each job as a challenge because
of uniqueness.
✓ 4. Large inventory of materials, tools, parts.
✓ 5. Detailed planning is essential for sequencing the requirements of each
product, capacities for each work centre and order priorities.
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Advantages
Following are the advantages of job shop production:
✓ 1. Because of general purpose machines and facilities, variety of
products can be produced.
✓ 2. Operators will become more skilled and competent, as each job
gives them learning opportunities.
✓ 3. Full potential of operators can be utilised.
✓ 4. Opportunity exists for creative methods and innovative ideas.
Limitations
Following are the limitations of job shop production:
1. Higher cost due to frequent set up changes.
2. Higher level of inventory at all levels and hence higher inventory cost.
3. Production planning is complicated.
4. Larger space requirements.
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BATCH PRODUCTION
✓ Batch production is defined by American Production and Inventory
Control Society (APICS) “as a form of manufacturing in which the job
passes through the functional departments in lots or batches and
each lot may have a different routing.”
✓ It is characterised by the manufacture of limited number of products
produced at regular intervals and stocked awaiting sales.
Characteristics
Batch production system is used under the following circumstances:
✓ 1. When there is shorter production runs.
✓ 2. When plant and machinery are flexible.
✓ 3. When plant and machinery set up is used for the production of item in
a batch and change of set up is required for processing the next batch.
✓ 4. When manufacturing lead time and cost are lower as compared to
job order production.
ok
Advantages
Following are the advantages of batch production:
✓ 1. Better utilisation of plant and machinery.
✓ 2. Promotes functional specialisation.
✓ 3. Cost per unit is lower as compared to job order production.
✓ 4. Lower investment in plant and machinery.
✓ 5. Flexibility to accommodate and process number of products.
✓ 6. Job satisfaction exists for operators.
Limitations
Following are the limitations of batch production:
✓ 1. Material handling is complex because of irregular and longer flows.
✓ 2. Production planning and control is complex.
✓ 3. Work in process inventory is higher compared to continuous
production.
✓ 4. Higher set up costs due to frequent changes in set up.
MASS PRODUCTION ok
✓ Manufacture of discrete parts or assemblies using a continuous process are called
mass production.
✓ This production system is justified by very large volume of production.
✓ The machines are arranged in a line or product layout.
✓ Product and process standardisation exists and all outputs follow the same path.
Characteristics
Mass production is used under the following circumstances:
✓ 1. Standardisation of product and process sequence.
✓ 2. Dedicated special purpose machines having higher production capacities and
output rates.
✓ 3. Large volume of products.
✓ 4. Shorter cycle time of production.
✓ 5. Lower in process inventory.
✓ 6. Perfectly balanced production lines.
✓ 7. Flow of materials, components and parts is continuous and without any back
tracking.
✓ 8. Production planning and control is easy.
✓ 9. Material handling can be completely automatic.
ok
Advantages
Following are the advantages of mass production:
✓ 1. Higher rate of production with reduced cycle time.
✓ 2. Higher capacity utilisation due to line balancing.
✓ 3. Less skilled operators are required.
✓ 4. Low process inventory.
✓ 5. Manufacturing cost per unit is low.
Limitations
Following are the limitations of mass production:
✓ 1. Breakdown of one machine will stop an entire production line.
✓ 2. Line layout needs major change with the changes in the product design.
✓ 3. High investment in production facilities.
✓ 4. The cycle time is determined by the slowest operation.
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CONTINUOUS PRODUCTION
✓ Production facilities are arranged as per the sequence of production
operations from the first operations to the finished product.
✓ The items are made to flow through the sequence of operations through
material handling devices such as conveyors, transfer devices, etc.
Characteristics
Continuous production is used under the following circumstances:
✓ 1. Dedicated plant and equipment with zero flexibility.
✓ 2. Material handling is fully automated.
✓ 3. Process follows a predetermined sequence of operations.
✓ 4. Component materials cannot be readily identified with final product.
✓ 5. Planning and scheduling is a routine action.
ok
Advantages
Following are the advantages of continuous production:
✓ 1. Standardisation of product and process sequence.
✓ 2. Higher rate of production with reduced cycle time.
✓ 3. Higher capacity utilisation due to line balancing.
✓ 4. Manpower is not required for material handling as it is completely
automatic.
✓ 5. Person with limited skills can be used on the production line.
✓ 6. Unit cost is lower due to high volume of production.
Limitations
Following are the limitations of continuous production:
✓ 1. Flexibility to accommodate and process number of products does not exist.
✓ 2. Very high investment for setting flow lines.
✓ 3. Product differentiation is limited.
PLANT LAYOUT
✓ Plant layout refers to the physical arrangement of production facilities.
✓ It is the configuration of departments, work centres and equipment in the
conversion process.
✓ It is a floor plan of the physical facilities, which are used in production.
✓ According to Moore “Plant layout is a plan of an optimum arrangement of
facilities including personnel, operating equipment, storage space,
material handling equipment and all other supporting services along with
the design of best structure to contain all these facilities”.
Objectives of Plant Layout
✓ The primary goal of the plant layout is to maximise the profit by
arrangement of all the plant facilities to the best advantage of total
manufacturing of the product.
✓The objectives of plant layout are:
❑ 1. Streamline the flow of materials through the plant.
❑ 2. Facilitate the manufacturing process.
❑ 3. Maintain high turnover of in-process inventory.
❑ 4. Minimise materials handling and cost.
❑ 5. Effective utilisation of men, equipment and space.
❑ 6. Make effective utilisation of cubic space.
❑ 7. Flexibility of manufacturing operations and arrangements.
❑ 8. Provide for employee convenience, safety and comfort.
❑ 9. Minimize investment in equipment.
❑ 10. Minimize overall production time.
❑ 11. Maintain flexibility of arrangement and operation.
❑ 12. Facilitate the organizational structure.
Principles of Plant Layout
❑ 1. Principle of integration: A good layout is one that integrates
men, materials, machines and supporting services and others in
order to get the optimum utilisation of resources and maximum
effectiveness.
❑ 2. Principle of minimum distance: This principle is concerned
with the minimum travel (or movement) of man and materials.
The facilities should be arranged such that, the total distance
travelled by the men and materials should be minimum and as far
as possible straight line movement should be preferred.
❑ 3. Principle of cubic space utilisation: The good layout is one
that utilise both horizontal and vertical space. It is not only
enough if only the floor space is utilised optimally but the third
dimension, i.e., the height is also to be utilised effectively.
❑ 4. Principle of flow: A good layout is one that makes the
materials to move in forward direction towards the completion
stage, i.e., there should not be any backtracking.
❑ 5. Principle of maximum flexibility: The good layout is one that
can be altered without much cost and time, i.e., future
requirements should be taken into account while designing
the present layout.
❑ 6. Principle of safety, security and satisfaction: A good layout
is one that gives due consideration to workers safety and
satisfaction and safeguards the plant and machinery against
fire, theft, etc.
❑ 7. Principle of minimum handling: A good layout is one that
reduces the material handling to the minimum.
CLASSIFICATION OF LAYOUT
Layouts can be classified into the following five
categories:
❑1. Process layout
❑2. Product layout
❑3. Combination layout
❑4. Fixed position layout
❑5. Group layout
Process Layout
✓ Process layout is recommended for batch production.
✓ All machines performing similar type of operations are grouped at
one location in the process layout e.g., all lathes, milling machines, etc.
are grouped in the shop will be clustered in like groups.
✓ Thus, in process layout the arrangement of facilities are grouped
together according to their functions.
✓ The flow paths of material through the facilities from one functional area
to another vary from product to product.
✓ Usually the paths are long and there will be possibility of backtracking.
✓ Process layout is normally used when the production volume is not
sufficient to justify a product layout.
✓ Typically, job shops employ process layouts due to the variety of
products manufactured and their low production volumes.
Process Layout
Process Layout
(functional)
Milling
Assembly
Grinding
& Test
Drilling Plating
Process Layout - work travels
to dedicated process centers
Figure : Process layout
Advantages
❑ 1. In process layout machines are better utilized and fewer machines are
required.
❑ 2. Flexibility of equipment and personnel is possible in process layout.
❑ 3. Lower investment on account of comparatively less number of machines and
lower cost of general purpose machines.
❑ 4. Higher utilisation of production facilities.
❑ 5. A high degree of flexibility with regards to work distribution to machineries and
workers.
❑ 6. The diversity of tasks and variety of job makes the job challenging and
interesting.
❑ 7. Supervisors will become highly knowledgeable about the functions under their
department.
Limitations
❑ 1. Backtracking and long movements may occur in the
handling of materials thus, reducing material handling
efficiency.
❑ 2. Material handling cannot be mechanised which adds
to cost.
❑ 3. Process time is prolonged which reduce the
inventory turnover and increases the inprocess
inventory.
❑ 4. Lowered productivity due to number of set-ups.
❑ 5. Throughput (time gap between in and out in the
process) time is longer.
❑ 6. Space and capital are tied up by work-in-process.
Product Layout
✓ In this type of layout, machines and auxiliary services are
located according to the processing sequence of the product.
✓ If the volume of production of one or more products is large, the
facilities can be arranged to achieve efficient flow of materials
and lower cost per unit.
✓ Special purpose machines are used which perform the required
function quickly and reliably.
✓ The product layout is selected when the volume of production
of a product is high such that a separate production line to
manufacture it can be justified.
✓ In a strict product layout, machines are not shared by
different products.
✓ Therefore, the production volume must be sufficient to achieve
satisfactory utilisation of the equipment
Product Layout
Raw
Station Station Station Station Finished
materials 1 2 3 4 item
or customer
Material Material Material Material
and/or and/or and/or and/or
labor labor labor labor
Advantages
❑ 1. The flow of product will be smooth and logical in flow lines.
❑ 2. In-process inventory is less.
❑ 3. Throughput time is less.
❑ 4. Minimum material handling cost.
❑ 5. Simplified production, planning and control systems are possible.
❑ 6. Less space is occupied by work transit and for temporary storage.
❑ 7. Reduced material handling cost due to mechanised handling systems and straight flow.
❑ 8. Perfect line balancing which eliminates bottlenecks and idle capacity.
❑ 9. Manufacturing cycle is short due to uninterrupted flow of materials.
❑ 10. Small amount of work-in-process inventory.
❑ 11. Unskilled workers can learn and manage the production.
Limitations
❑ 1. A breakdown of one machine in a product line may
cause stoppages of machines in the downstream of the
line.
❑ 2. A change in product design may require major
alterations in the layout.
❑ 3. The line output is decided by the bottleneck machine.
❑ 4. Comparatively high investment in equipments is
required.
❑ 5. Lack of flexibility. A change in product may require the
facility modification.
Combination Layout
✓ A combination of process and product layouts
combines the advantages of both types of layouts.
✓ A combination layout is possible where an item is
being made in different types and sizes.
✓ Here machinery is arranged in a process layout
but the process grouping is then arranged in a
sequence to manufacture various types and sizes
of products.
✓ It is to be noted that the sequence of operations
remains same with the variety of products and
sizes.
Figure : Combination layout for making different types and sizes of gears
Fixed Position Layout
✓ This is also called the project type of layout.
✓ In this type of layout, the material, or major components remain in a fixed
location and tools, machinery, men and other materials are brought to this
location.
✓ This type of layout is suitable when one or a few pieces of identical heavy
products are to be manufactured and when the assembly consists of large
number of heavy parts, the cost of transportation of these parts is very high.
❑ Berjangka waktu
❑ Berjenjang
❑ Terpadu
❑ Berkelanjutan
❑ Terukur
❑ Realistis
❑ Akurat
❑ Menantang
1. Berjangka waktu
Perencanaan produksi (PP) jangka panjang (> 3 tahun)
PP ini menangani keputusan-keputusan bersifat strategis :
pengembangan produk baru, lokasi pabrik, tata letak
fasilitas dll.
3. Terpadu
Perencanaan produksi melibatkan banyak faktor, seperti
bahan baku, mesin/peralatan, tenaga kerja, dan waktu, oleh karena
itu harus dilakukan secara terpadu.
4. Berkelanjutan
Perencanaan produksi disusun berdasarkan hasil evaluasi
terhadap rencana sebelumnya, oleh karena itu perencanaan produksi
haruslah merupakan kegiatan yang berkelanjutan.
5. Terukur
Untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya penyimpangan, maka rencana produksi
harus menetapkan ukuran sehingga mudah untk mengevaluasinya.
6. Realistik
Rencana produksi yang dibuat harus disesuaikan dengan kondisi yang
ada di perusahaan, sehingga target yang ditetapkan realistik bisa
dipenuhi.
7. Akurat
Perencanaan produksi harus dibuat berdasarkan informasi-
informasi yang akurat tentang kondisi internal dan eksternal sehingga
angka-angka yang dimunculkan dalam target produksi dapat
dipertanggungjawabkan.
8. Menantang
Meskipun rencana produksi harus dibuat serealistis mungkin, bukan
berarti rencana produksi harus menetapkan target yang mudah dapat
dicapai.
Rencana produksi yang baik harus menetapkan target produksi yang
hanya dapat dicapai dengan usaha yang sungguh-sungguh.
PERAMALAN
✓ Perencanaan produksi merupakan kegiatan untuk
menentukan arah awal tindakan-tindakan yang harus dilakukan
di masa mendatang, apa yang harus dibuat, berapa banyak, dan
kapan harus dibuat.
Siklus bisnis
Siklus bisnis dengan fase-fase : inflasi, resesi, depresi dan masa
pemulihan → kondisi ekonomi → permintaan produk → penjualan
produk
Variasi
Acak
Siklus bisnis Sikap & Kepercayaan
Pelanggan
Mutu
Iklan Kebijaksanaan
Kredit
Hasil Penjualan
Citra Desain
Pelayanan Barang dan
Pelayanan
At − Ft
MAD =
n
At = permintaan aktual pada periode – t
Ft = hasil peramalan (forecast) pada peridoe – t
n = jumlah periode peramalan yang terlibat
2. Rata-rata Kuadrat Kesalahan ( Mean Square Error = MSE)
MSE dihitung dengan menjumlahkan kuadrat semua kesalahan
peramalan pada setiap periode dan membaginya dengan jumlah
periode peramalan
( At − Ft )2
MSE =
n
3. Rata-rata Kesalahan Peramalan (Mean Forecast Error = MFE)
MFE sangat efektif untuk mengetahui apakah suatu hasil
peramalan selama periode tertentu terlalu tinggi atau terlalu rendah
( At − Ft )
MFE =
n
4. Rata-rata Persentase Kesalahan Absolut (Mean Absolute
Percentage Error = MAPE)
MAPE menyatakan persentase kesalahan hasil peramalan terhadap
permintaan aktual selama perioe tertentu yang akan memberikan
informasi persentase kesalahan terlalu tinggi atau terlalu rendah
100 Ft
MAPE = t
A −
n At
JENIS DAN METODE PERAMALAN
Metode Pemodelan
MODEL KUALITATIF PERAMALAN
a. Individual Opinion
Opini peramalan berasal dari pribadi (individu) : biasaya pakar (expert)
dalam bidangnya yaitu : konsultan-konsultan bersifat ilmiah dan non ilmiah,
manager pemasaran / produksi, individu yang banyak bergerak pada
masalah-masalah tersebut.
Kebaikannya: cepat
Kelemahannya : subjektif (tergantung kondisi dan situasi peramal).
b. Group Opinion
Opini peramalan diperoleh dari beberapa orang dengan mencoba merata-
ratakan hasil peramalan sehingga diperoleh pendapat/hasil peramalan yang
lebih objektif (rasional).
Kebaikannya : lebih objektif
c. Delphy Method
Peramalan dibentuk melalui beberapa tahapan untuk mencari hasil yang
lebih objektif dari kedua sistem di atas.
Metode ini menggunakan pakar (expert).
Hasil ramalan dari setiap tahapan diinformasikan kepada pakar, sehingga
keputusan hasil ramalan dapat berubah karena informasi tersebut.
Dan seterusnya, sampai diperoleh variasi hasil ramalan dari para
pakar tersebut sudah sangat kecil.
Signifikan perbedaan nilai dapat diukur dengan uji Anova atau
metode lain
Secara umum metode kwalitatif ini lebih mudah dibuat tetapi
unsur subjektivitas tinggi.
MODEL KUANTITATIF
Pada model kuantitatif lebih obyektif karena menggunakan
pendekatan matematik, numerik dan terukur.
PRODUCTION &
Materials OPERATIONS Product
management MANAGEMENT design
Quality
control Production Process
and planning design
control
4
Penelitian dan Pengembangan Produk
Mencakup:
Penciptaan produk baru yang sesuai dengan
kebutuhan/keinginan konsumen
Pengembangan produk yang sudah ada untuk
mempertinggi kualitas dan efisiensi produksi
Penelitian Produk:
Penelitian ttg produk apa dan produk yang
bagaimana yang diinginkan konsumen
Pengembangan Produk:
Penelitian thd produk yg sudah ada untuk
dikembangkan agar mempunyai nilai guna
yang lebih tinggi
5
Dasar Pelaksanaan
Penelitian dan Pengembangan Produk
6
The Product
Development Process Competitors
Sale Research
Force Engineers
Government Idea Generation Consumer-
Regulation need Info.
Initial Screening
Economic Analysis
Initial Product Design
and Development
Prototype Testing
Final Product and
Prod. Process Design
Market Introduction
7
FAKTOR YANG PERLU DIPERHATIKAN
PADA SETIAP TAHAPAN PROSES
Idea Generation:
Kebutuhan konsumen, Aturan/Kebijakan Pemerintah
Perkembangan teknologi
Initial Screening:
Produk, Pasar, dan Pembiayaan
Economic Analysis:
Perkiraan Tingkat keuntungan dan RoI
Initial Product Design and Development:
Fungsi produk (karakteristik, kualitas dan reliabilitas)
Persyaratan teknis dan spesifikasi
Faktor ekonomi dalam produksi dan distribusi
Prototype Testing:
Kesesuaian dengan selera konsumen
Final Product and Production Process Design:
Penyempurnaan berdasarkan hasil prototype testing
8
Kualitas dan Reliabilitas
dalam Pengembangan Disain Produk
PRINSIP:
Kualitas yg baik dlm disain, bahan baku dan proses akan
dpt meminimalisir permasalahan dlm produksi, memper-
kecil biaya produksi dan meningkatkan produktivitas.
9
PENGEMBANGAN PRODUK JASA
Proses pengembangan produk:
Tahapan proses sama seperti pada produk manufaktur,
dimulai dari pengembangan ide sampai kepada desain
produk dan proses produksi
Perbedaan mendasar:
Pengukuran kualitas produk
Menggunakan Computer-aided system dlm pengujian
prototype produk
Qualitas:
Sangat tergantung kpd pendidikan dan keterampilan
personnel yang menghasilkan jasa
Tidak memiliki standard yang tepat
Produk akhir tdk bisa diperiksa sebelum dipasarkan
10
1. Fase Pengenalan pasar (market introduction)
- Penjualan berada di tingkat rendah karena ide baru dikenalkan
- Pelanggan tidak mencari produk tersebut
- Pelanggan tidak mengetahui produk tersebut
- Promosi yang informatif diperlukan pada tahapan ini
- Diperlukan waktu bagi pelanggan untuk mempelajari produk
- Perusahaan mengalami kerugian selama tahap perkenalan
Berhasil ? Evaluasi
Tahapan dalam Pengembangan Produk
1. Ide : bersumber dari perubahan lingkungan teknologi,
demografi, ekonomi, politik, dsb
2. Persyaratan yang harus dipenuhi di pasar : pendekatan yang
diperlukan untuk memuaskan konsumen
3. Spesifikasi fungsional : bagaimana cara kerja produk tersebut
4. Spesifikasi produk : bagaimana produk akan dibuat
5. Ulasan desain : bagaimana produk akan dibuat secara ekonomis
dan kualitas
6. Pengujian pasar : apakah produk memenuhi keinginan pasar
7. Pengenalan produk : produk diantar ke konsumen
8. Evaluasi : berhasil atau tidak
(catatan : 2 s/d 8 termasuk dalam lingkup Kelompok Pengembangan Produk,
sedangkan 3 s/6 termasuk dalam lingkup Kelompok Rancangan untuk
Manufacturability dan Rekayasa Nilai)
Kompetisi Berbasis Waktu
Siklus hidup produk makin singkat →pengembangan produk
jadi penting
Pengembangan produk yang cepat →lebih menguntungkan
→ lebih unggul
Keunggulan berbasis waktu (Time-based Competitiveness)
Rumus di atas
Metode Winter dengan Pemulusuan Musiman
Proses umum dari permintaan musiman ini dapat dinyatakan dalam
persamaan matematis sebagai berikut :
Sebagai contoh :
Q1 (1992) : 94,43 = 85,05 + 9,38
Q2 (1993) : 103,81 = 85,05 + 2 (9,38)
Dari perkiraan garis trend tersebut, kita dapat mengembangkan indeks
musiman awal.
Q1 (1992) : 146 / 94,43 = 1,55
Q2 (1993) : 96 / 103,81 = 0,92
Salah satu metode kausal yang sering dipakai adalah regresi sederhana.
y = a + bx
y = perkiraan permintaan
x = variabel bebas yang mempengaruhi y
a = nilai tetap y bila bila x = 0 (merupakan perpotongan dengan sumbu y
b = derajat kemiringan persamaan garis regresi
Karena model ini menyatakan hubungan kausal antara variabel yang
mempengaruhi (x) dengan perkiraan peramalan yang dipengaruhi (y),
maka kita bisa menghitung keeretan hubungan y dengan x (r2)
dengan rumus :
CONTOH :
Data masa lalu menunjukkan penjualan rokok ARDATH (slop) terhadap
biaya promosi (dalam jutaan rupiah) selama 9 bulan terlihat pada tabel
di bawah ini. Bila digunakan metode regresi, hitunglah berapa perkiraan
penjualan bila biaya promosi = 12 juta rupiah.
JAWABAN :
Dengan menggunakan persamaan sebelumnya, maka diperoleh :
b = 164.183 dan a = 9.956,03 sehingga persamaan garis regresinya
adalah :
y = 9.956,03 + 164.183 x.
Bila x =12 juta,
maka nilai y = 9.956,03 + 164.183 (12) =
11.926,226 juta (11,9 Milyar).
Bila variabel yang mempengaruhi perkiraan permintaan adalah waktu,
maka nilai x tinggal digantikan dengan periode ke t dari perkiraan yang
ingin diramalkan.
Sementara itu, variabel yang akan di plot ke dalam Peta MRC adalah :