Forecasting of breakthrough results in

production based on digital simulation

Cite as: AIP Conference Proceedings 2656, 020001 (2022); https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0106364
Published Online: 29 August 2022

V. S. Borovik, V. V. Borovik and A. V. Borovik

AIP Conference Proceedings 2656, 020001 (2022); https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0106364 2656, 020001

© 2022 Author(s).
Forecasting of Breakthrough Results in Production Based on
Digital Simulation
V S Borovik1, a), V V Borovik2 and A V Borovik3
1
Volgograd Science and Technology Center, Volgograd, Russia
2
Department of Capital Construction of the State Public Institution of Volgograd Region "Directorate of Highways"
Volgograd, Russia
3
Institute of Architecture and Engineering, Volgograd State Technical University, Volgograd, Russia
a)
Corresponding author: borovikv@mail.ru

Abstract. The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of a groundbreaking technology on the development of
production using a digital model of the enterprise, reflecting the current trend in the use of resources, and a significant
increase in the intensity of use of production resources due to innovation introduction. The following research tasks are to
be solved: influence assessment of a new technology in comparison with the previous one, taking into account the
prevailing conditions of production process under consideration and determination of the role of previous statistics in the
current intensification of the use of production resources. It was found that the predicted values of production volume are
determined not by the sum of previous values of output and the new values of volume, but by the multiplication product
of the previous volume by a special factor. It is shown that when using a groundbreaking technology, it is of particular
interest to assess the multiple effects of production resources on production volume. The importance of this process was
established at an integrated analysis of situations developing in production. An example of increase calculation in the
production volume when introducing a groundbreaking technology is given.

INTRODUCTION
A positive quality of digital models is the stability of parameters over time which can be a disadvantage when
introducing effective innovations. As noted by a number of researchers, a significant obstacle to reliably of impact
forecasting of effective innovations on production development is the complexity of intensification record of
resource use by digital models (DM) [1,2,3]. A contradiction arises, the essence of which consists in the fact that, on
the one hand, the digital model reflects the current trend in the resources' use, and on the other hand, the more
effective an innovation is, the more as a rule it contributes to an increase in the intensity of resource consumption.

FIGURE 1. Transition process in innovation.

II International Scientific Forum on Computer and Energy Sciences (WFCES-II 2021)

AIP Conf. Proc. 2656, 020001-1–020001-8; https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0106364
Published by AIP Publishing. 978-0-7354-4394-5/$30.00

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 Let us explain this assumption by an example. In Figure 1 there are three curves. Let’s suppose the production
(enterprise) is characterized by a certain amount of resources X c.u. (conventional units) and performance over time
by the amount of work Y expressed in conventional units. If the problem of functioning of the system in a similar
manner is solved, then this can be expressed, for example, by means of a digital model which is graphically
presented by curve 1 [4,5,6,7]. In the case when, from the moment Р0, the introduction of a groundbreaking
technology begins, what causes a significant intensification of the use of resources, the system is transferred to a
new state and the breakthrough technology curve can assume the shape 2.
From this moment difficulties begin, since if we use the statistics generated by the digital model for curve 1 (for
example, from the moment to to tn), the curve will assume the shape 3, which will very approximately characterize
the amount of work performed. This is clearly seen in Figure 1 by the parameters 'У and 'Уc. The task of the
transition period associated with innovations in production management did not get a reliable positive solution
[8,9,10].
Specialists in the field of multivariate regression analysis recognize that the problem of technological progress
reflected in the digital model as one of the decisive factors of economic growth is often criticized [11, 12]. The
inclusion of a special time-dependent multiplier in the digital model cannot be considered a successful problem
solution, since innovations that cause a significant intensification of production are artificially separated from
resources [13, 14]. It should be noted also that the inability to forecast with reasonable accuracy the introduction
results of a groundbreaking technology significantly affects the future development of production management
automation.
The problem consists in the inconsistency of the existing system for result assessment of breakthrough
technology results in production with modern requirements [7,8].

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The value of the economic model based on the digital model, in our opinion, consists in the linkage to real
production conditions, expressed in real technology, in real volumes of work and volumes of resources. The search
for ways to predict economic growth leads researchers to an interesting concept of the existence of cycles and waves
in development [14,15].
For our study, cyclical functions describing fluctuations in combination with steady changes are of interest. Such
functions can be applied to the description of the process of economic growth in market conditions. The use of
nonlinear and analytically nonlinearizable functions presents great opportunities for a deeper analysis of temporal
trends in economic development [16].
Cycles appear as a result of fluctuation in a certain frequency range. They represent relatively synchronous rises
and falls in the bulk of economic indicators, i.e. are a multi-factorial phenomenon that characterizes fluctuations in
the economy as a whole. Cycles, in contrast to waves, are characterized not so much by a certain periodicity as by
repetition, uniformity of mechanisms, connections, forms of manifestation [17]. For example, the dynamics of
housing construction showed fluctuations for the period of 20 years [17, 18] ("Kuznets cycle").
Supporters of the complexity of a cycle believe that although there are fluctuations of different duration in the
economy, they take place in the shape of a single cycle [16,17]. Advocates of the idea of multiplicity of cycle argue
that fluctuations of different length assume the shape of several cycles [17-20, 22-25].
The emergence and influence of cycles and waves on economic development, their interdependence and the
causes of their emergence are far from being a solved problem [16]. However, practice shows constant abrupt
changes in economic indicators, very roughly approximated by the corresponding mathematical dependencies. This
is especially evident in a market economy, where sudden changes in exchange transactions, price changes, volume
of work, etc. are a consequence of deep processes occurring in society and nature [9]. The practice of socialist
management proved the same, although the official indicators, as a rule, showed "constant growth" and "stability of
economic development" [16].
We need such a detailed presentation of the concept of cycles and waves in order to substantiate our own concept
of impact prediction of a groundbreaking technology on the results of production development. A quote from A.
Harrison, who studied the aspects of management improvement, is quite appropriate here: "... abrupt changes are
more risky, however, only they, if they are successful, provide an opportunity to catch up with the leader when there
is a significant lag" [21].
In this respect, a more detailed analysis of the possibilities of digital modeling can serve as a sufficiently reliable
foundation for further research of the problem of the transition period in the use of a groundbreaking technology.

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 The aim of the study is to determine the impact of a breakthrough technology on the development of production
using a digital model that reflects the current trend in the use of production resources, and a significant increase in
the intensity of the use of production resources due to innovation introduction.
Research objectives. 1. To determine the influence of new components against the background of the previous
sample, taking into account the prevailing conditions of the production process under analysis. 2. To find the
importance of previous information in the current intensification of the use of production resources.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Results
Let us outline the course of the problem solution. Let S be some sample, the variants of which do not go beyond
a certain interval. Let's consider a digital model based on the specified function, for example, of the following form
(1):
n
D
Y C0 – X i i , (1)
i 1

where Y – calculation index (for example, the volume of production, etc. expressed as in-kind product or given in
value terms); Хi , i 1, n – factors (for example, fixed assets, materials, labor, energy and personnel qualifications)

that determine the parameters Y (as in-kind product or in given value terms); αi, i 1, n – characterizing the input of
Хi into Y; C0 – ratio reflecting the influence of factors which are not taken into account by the model.
Let’s suppose, that starting from a certain moment, in a sample of a sufficiently large volume, a value
Хi (i 1, n) appears that falls out of the limits of this interval. If there are few such values and there is reason to
consider them random, then they are usually ignored as atypical, leaving the function type unchanged. The
components that are systematic and regular present certain interest.
For following modeling, it is necessary to find out the changes in function (1) as a result of a sudden change
Хi (i 1, n) . As an assumption, we will assume that the subsequent components will not receive drastic changes.
It is also necessary to solve the equation of the magnitude of the change in the impact of each factor Xi and their
combination on the value of function (1).
n
¦Di
Let’ us note that at i 1 1 the intensity of resource use is high, however, due to the geometric features of the
function (1) only at Xi > 1 a serious influence of management quality on the growth of volume У begins.

n
FIGURE 2. Curve of function ¦ D i 1.
i 1

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 n
¦D i % 1
At 1 less intensive use of resources at 0<Хi< 1 leads to a sharp increase in the volume Y at the same costs
Xi as in the previous case.

n
FIGURE 3. Curve of function ¦ D % 1 .
i 1
P0 ( x1,0 , x2,0 ...xn,0 )
Let us suppose, that is the final point of the sample before the introduction of a
i 'X (i 1, n)
groundbreaking technology. If, starting from this point, the change significantly, then it is clear
that function (1) will not cope with the task of the new set description. For example, an enterprise is planning to
introduce a groundbreaking technology. Additional costs will be required, since the use of an effective set of
machines and equipment leads to an increase in the volume of materials, energy, expansion of the production
facilities, training of personnel, etc.
If the new management, which uses effectively the groundbreaking technology (effective use is understood here
as management achieving the control indicators close to the calculated ones or normative ones), begins at the "point"
P0, then it is logical to take P0 as a new origin of coordinates.
Let us denote: OP0 l is a vector leading from the "old" origin of coordinates to the new one. Then, assuming
that the value of the utilization rate of the factors has not changed, we obtain the following equation in the new
coordinate system:
n
Y C0 – ( X i  l X i )D i  Y ( P0 )
i 1 , (2)

l (i 1, n)
where X i are coordinates of vector l .
Let us change the function (2) in the following way:
n
D lX
Y C0 – X i i (1  i )D i  YP0 .
i 1 X
(3)
It follows that the predicted values of Y are not the sum of previous values of the output factor and the new
D
§ l · i
¨ ¸
¨1  X i ¸ .
¨ Xi ¸
¨ ¸
values of Y, but the product of multiplication of the "old" Y by the factor © ¹ From formula (3) it can be seen
l
that new management is expected to start at the "point" where takes the minimum value. Let us show how this
­ wcY ½
’Y ® ¾, (i 1, n)
point is chosen. Let’s take ¯ wcX ¿ . We define step h in the standard way. We solve the following
sequence of operations, successively finding the points:

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 OPn1 OPn  ’Y ( Pn )h, n 1, N .

Since the coordinates of the vector OP n 1 coincide numerically with the coordinates of the point Рп+1, then
calculating at each step Y (Рп), we will stop at the nth point where we will take this point as the new origin of
lXi OP[
coordinates, and the coordinates in formula (3) will be the coordinates of the vector . From formula (3) it
follows that the maximum increment of the output factor will take place if Хi increases and Di exists where i 1, n

(with an appropriate choice of the vector l ).

Let us present function (3) as follows:
n
n n lX i D i (D i  1) §¨ l X i ·
¸  (1)n 1 Di (Di  1)...Di  (n  1) §¨ X n
l ·
Y C0 – X iD i – (1  D i  ¸  ...)  Y ( P[ ). (4)
i 1 i 1 Xi D! ¨© X i ¸
¹ n ! ¨X
© n
¸
¹

For sufficiently large volumes of resources X i , the terms in formula (4) rapidly decrease, and for the
calculation, we can use the formula (5):
n
D
n lX
Y | C0 – X i i – (1  D i  Y ( P[ ).
i 1 i 1 Xi )
(5)
When using groundbreaking technologies, it is of particular interest to assess the influence of multiple effects of
the factors Xi on the function Y. This is especially important when analyzing complex situations that happen in
production process.
X X ,..., X
A weak influence of the set K1 , K 2 KS
which is taken as an example on the output parameter Y was
found. But the proved influence could significantly reduce the dimension of the problem which is being solved.
X , X ,... X K S
Using this line of reasoning, we obtain complex estimates of the "contribution" of K1 K 2 into
volume Y.
§ lXi · n Dil X lX lX
D § · n n
n n n
Di ¸  ¦ ¦ D iD j i j 
Y C0 – X i – ¨¨1  Di ¸  Y ( P[ ) C0 – X i i ¨¨1  ¦ i
i 1 i 1© X i ¸¹ i 1 © i 1 Xi
¸
¹ i 1j 1 Xi X j

lXi lX j lX k
 ¦ ¦ ¦ D iD jD k  ...)Y ( P[ ).
i 1 j 1k 1 Xi X j Xk
(6)
The coefficients which are of interest to us assume the shape

ai Di l X i ;
(7)
ai j DiD jl X i l X j ;
(8)
aijk DiD jD k l X i l X j l X k
, etc. (9)
Let us note that the estimates obtained in this way are similar to the corresponding assessments made using the
regression methods. The exception is probably the paired influences on Y due to their insignificance. In this case, it
becomes possible to reduce the dimension of the managerial problem and increase the sensitivity of economic
D a ij... s
analysis. Attention should be paid to the completely different character of the assessments i and . If the first
indicators assess the contribution of each type of resource Xi to Y, then they characterize the influence of entire
X i , X j ... X s
groups on Y.

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 Let’s notice that

n n § lX § lX ·
2·
Di ¨ 1 ¸
Y  Y ( P[ ) C0 – X i – ¨1  Di i  Di (Di 1)¨¨ i ¸
¸ ¸,
i 1 i 1 ¨ Xi 2 © Xi ¹ ¸
© ¹ (10)
it follows from here that

ª D
§ l · i º
Di « »
n ¨ X n ¸
'Y X Y P[  C0 – X i «– ¨1  i ¸  1». (11)
i 1 «i 1¨© X i ¸ »
¬ ¹ ¼

Discussion
For example, the activities of an enterprise are described by a digital model

Y 35,71X10.342 X 20,264 X 30,013,

'Y ^12,21X 0,66 0,264 0,013

1 X2 X3 9,41X10,342 X 20,77 X 30,0130,46 X10,342 X 20,264 X 30,99 `
Having taken h =100 and leaving the point Р1(1; 1; 1.), in five steps we get P6 (6105; 4700; 230). Let us make
sure that Y(P6) = Y29 = 6509. The 29th number indicates that 'Хi are resource increments have significantly grown
starting from this number.
This can be seen from the following calculations:

Y ( P6 ) 35,71˜ 6050,34247000,2642300,013 35,71˜ 9,6 ˜ 9,3 ˜1 6509.

&
So the vector defining the new origin will be as follows
l ^6105 ˜ 4700 ˜ 230`
In accordance with our remarks, the digital model will assume the shape

Y 35,71( X1  6105)0,342( X 2  4700)0,264( X 3  230)0,013  6509.

Let us assess the influence of production factors on the value of Y and it follows from the formula:
a1 D1l X1 0,342 ˜ 6105 2088;
a2 D 2l X 2 0,264 ˜ 4700 1241;
a3 D 3l X 3 0,013 ˜ 230 | 3.

Paired influence:
a1,2 D1D 2l X1l X 2 0,342 ˜ 0,264 ˜ 6105 ˜ 4700 2596679;
a1,3 D1D 3l X1l X 3 0,342 ˜ 0,013 ˜ 6105 ˜ 230 6243;
a2,3 D 2D 3l X 2 l X 3 0,264 ˜ 0,013 ˜ 4700 ˜ 230 484.

a :
Let us calculate 1, 2,3
a1,2,3 D1D 2D3l X1l X 2 l X 3 0,342 ˜ 0,264 ˜ 0,013 ˜ 6105 ˜ 4700 ˜ 230 7746129,4

Now we have

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 'Y 6509  35,71( X1  6105) 0,342 ( X 2  4700) 0,264 ( X 3  230) 0,013 
 35,71X10,342 X 20,264 X 30,013 6509  35,71( X10,342 X 20,264 X 30,013 u
ª§ 0,342 0, 264
§ 230 ·
0,013 º
« 6105 · § 4700 ·
».
¨
u ¨ 
1 ¸ ¨1  ¸ ¨ 1  ¸  1
«© X1 ¸¹ ¨
© X 2 ¸¹ ¨
© X 3 ¸¹ »
¬ ¼
^
For point P0 we have P0 X1 6500; X 2 5000; X 3 300`.

'Y 6509  35,71˜ 65000,34250000,2643000.013(0,4 ˜ 0,475 ˜ 0,98  1)

6509  35,71˜ 20,14 ˜ 9,5 ˜1,1(0,82) 6509  6162,8 346,2.

CONCLUSION
The influence of a groundbreaking technology on the development of production introduced with the help of a
digital model, reflecting the current trend in the use of production resources, and a significant increase in the
intensity of the use of production resources, due to the innovative process, was proved. The influence of new
components in comparison with the previous sample is determined, taking into account the prevailing conditions of
the production process under analysis. The role of the previous statistics in the current intensification of the use of
production resources on the possibility of forecasting of a groundbreaking technology use was established. It was
shown that the predicted values of production volume are not the sum of the previous values of the output factor and
the new values of volume, but are its product of multiplication of the previous volume by a special factor. It is
shown that when using a groundbreaking technology, it is of particular interest to assess the multiple effects of
production resources on production volume, what is especially important when analyzing complex situations in
production. It was found that the assessments obtained in this way are similar to the corresponding estimates made
using regression methods. Exceptions are paired impact on production volume, because of their insignificance, what
allows reducing the size of management problems and increasing the sensitivity of the economic analysis.

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