Agus Tjahajana
Tim Batere EV - BUMN
Jakarta, 22 Mei 2021
Dialog dan Diskusi
Kendaraan Bermotor Listrik (EV)
1. Latar Belakang pengembangan Industri Mobil Listrik
dan Industry Baterai mobil listrik di Indonesia dan
dunia dan bagaimana pasarnya 5 sd 10 tahun yad?
2. Siapa saja pemain-pemainnya?
3. Roadmap dan Kebijakannya
a. Industri Mobil Listrik
b. Industri Baterai
4. Peluang bagi para entrepreuner kelas menengah
5. Manfaat Industri Baterai secara Nasional
6. Tantangan-Tantangan yang dihadapi
Transisi energi dunia
#1
20 cm
Power Transport Industry Buildings
Emisi CO2 per 19.000 km
Dampak Gas Rumah Kaca
Agriculture Waste F-Gases https://www.pca.state.mn.us/featured/electric-cars-charge-ahead
Kenaikan level air
4
2 . Perpres 55/2019 – Percepatan KBL-BB untuk Transportasi Jalan
ISU STRATEGIS
Pokok-pokon Ketentuan Perpres
Era Kendaraan
Bermotor Listrik:
DISRUPTIF
OTOMOTIF
Kesempatan untuk
• Berkembangnya
Era Kendaraan Bermotor
Listrik
Industri Otomotif
Dalam Negeri
• Harapan akan
MEREK NASIONAL
Perpres no.55 th 2019 tentang Percepatan Program Kendaraan Bermotor Listrik Berbasis Baterai
Sumber : Prof. Dr-Eng. Eniya Listiani Dewi, B.Eng, M.Eng, BPPT, 20 Mei 2020
untuk Transportasi Jalan
• Persyaratan TKDN perlu diverifikasi dan diyakini dapat tercapai
• Industri KBL dan industri pendukung KBL harus dipastikan tersedia dan siap mendukung terbangunnya Industri
Dalam Negeri 4
3 . Tantangan yang Dihadapi
INDONESIAN EV ECOSYSTEM CHALLENGES
TransJakarta
Sharing
Vehicle
EV ECOSYSTEM
Motorbike
Taxi (Ojek) Taxi
• Electricity and Charging Station availability Public
Pollution Free
• Readiness of EV market Transportation
Zone
• Readiness of EV system component industries
• Availability of affordable higher quality Battery, high power
density, and fast charging EV IMPLEMENTATION
• Fiscal and financial supports
• Regulation of penalties for polluted vehicles. c 7
Sumber : Prof. Dr-Eng. Eniya Listiani Dewi, B.Eng, M.Eng, BPPT, 20 Mei 2020
KBL - BB
#2
PHEV
ENGINE ENGINE
ON BOARD
CHARGER
PARALLEL
MOTOR
HEV : HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE
BATTERY PHEV : PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE
BEV : BATTERY ELECTRIC VEHICLE
BEV
Urban Traffic
• Pesaing BEV adalah FCEV (Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle) statusnya masih
pengenalan pasar, pemain utama perusahaan Jepang dan Korea
9
5. EV Terminology (2)
Zero-Emission Vehicles
Electric Vehicles (EV)
(ZEV)
60,00
20,00
-
2016 2017 2018 2019 *Total incentive in China 15 K USD (Before subsidy)
06. INDONESIA CHALLENGES EV DEVELOPMENT
Source : OICA and others
Sumber : Kukuh Kumara, Sekjend Gaikindo, BASF Electrical Vehicle Webinar, 17 Desember 2020
06. INDONESIA CHALLENGES EV DEVELOPMENT
7. Harga EV Vs ICE
EV Market Potential in Indonesia
Most x.EV are priced more than IDR 600 million, while Indonesia automotive
market is dominated by vehicles priced below IDR 300 million
Sumber : Kukuh Kumara, Sekjend Gaikindo, BASF Electrical Vehicle Webinar, 17 Desember 2020
06. INDONESIA CHALLENGES EV DEVELOPMENT (BACKGROUND)
13. Produsen EV di Dunia
Global BEV Production
BMW
Mercedes
VW Nissan
Renault Toyota
Citroen Mitsubishi Tesla
Byd Chevrolet
Saic Hyundai Nissan
FAW Kia
Dongfeng
Chana
BaiC
GAC
Cherry
Geely
Toyota - BYD
Tesla
Audi - FAW
But the economic scale, currently the majority of BEV production is still concentrated in
Sumber : Kukuh Kumara, Sekjend Gaikindo, BASF Electrical Vehicle Webinar, 17 Desember 2020
14. Produsen Baterai EV dan Perkiraan Kebutuhan Dunia
Hasil dari due diligence mengerucut pada 6 Mitra Potential
1 40 267 307
2 50 187 237
3 46 89 135
4 40 72 112
5 30 64 94
6 12 67 79
7 35 42 77
8 2 71 72
9 0 64 64
39 62
10 23
11 8 47 54
1. Top 10 from Statista report (Lithium-ion batteries worldwide, 2018); Northvolt from press search, company information; BCG Team analysis
15. Peluang Indonesia
45%
71% vs
45%
29%
Internal 10% Battery
ICE BEV
Combustion Engine Electric Vehicle
~ 4,000 moving components ‘Classic’ supplier components; ~ 2,000 moving components
‘Classic’ OEM components
High complexity of powertrain (engine, Low complexity of powertrain
BEV components; (mainly ICE powertrain)
gearbox, clutch, etc.) (e-motor, battery pack,charger, etc.)
Indonesia memiliki peluang terbesar di ASEAN yang mampu mengembangkan Ekosistem Baterai EV & EV
1. Projection by 2030 (Merrill Lynch, BCG analysis)
Note: Example used for components: ICE—Skoda Fabia; BEV—VW E-Golf
Source: Merrill Lynch; Press releases; OEMs aftersales catalogs; BCG analysis
17. Komponen Penting Hilang dan Baru pada EV
Status in EV
Description Components Vehicle cost breakdown
(% of cost)
4W Molded Rubber Parts
100% 100%
Automotive Air Conditioner
Compressor 16% 15%
Paket baterai
4W Crankshaft keunggulan utama
35% manufaktur KBL di
Indonesia
4W Connecting Rod
84%
Electric motor
Car Battery & power electronics
50% Battery pack
Status in EV ICE powertrain
Description Components Costs unrelated
to powertrain
2W Tray Fuel Cushion Seat ICE EV
2W Screen Oil Filter Source: BCG - The Future of Battery Production for Electric Vehicles
% OF UNITS PRODUCED
80 BU STIO POWER TRAIN TECHNOLOGY
70 N ENG
INE RECHARGE ELECTRIC VEHICLE
60
50
Y
40
HYBRID LE BATTER VEHICLE
30 IC VEHIC ELECTR
IC
FUEL CELL
20 ELECTR VEHICLE
10 ELECTRIC
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Indonesia expected to be
Low Case2 Base Case1 SEA EV top 2 supplier for imported
29.3 demand EV in South East Asia
Annual demand for battery in Indonesia (Market share of 35%)
in GWh 3.3
ESS application in
19.9 1.8 ESS renewable co-location,
(Energy Storage
2.2 System) peak power provisions &
5.3 others
1.2
20 %
2019
EV
2017 2021 ?
2025
Dikeluarkan SK
Dikeluarkan SK
Pemerintah Menperind No.
Menperind No.
mentargetkan tahun 27/2021 ttg
28/2021 ttg
2025 20% dari populasi Road Map dan
CBU dan CKD
adalah LCEV – termasuk TKDN
EV
06.Catatan
21. INDONESIA CHALLENGES
EV Indonesia EV DEVELOPMENT
Indonesia LCEV Program
▪ Indonesia submitted the commitment at COP21 to reduce 29% CO2 emission w/o international support, and reduce 41% CO2 emission
with international support until 2030
▪ Indonesia will increase
Sumber : Kukuh the renewable
Kumara, Sekjend Gaikindo, BASFenergy
Electricalusage to 23%17until
Vehicle Webinar, 2025 2020, Kementerian Perindustyrian
Desember
▪ Transport Sector is one of key sector need to reduce it’s CO2 emission through measures which are suitable with Indonesian condition
22. Beberapa Peraturan Pendukung yang Sudah Diterbitkan
Permenhub 45 Tahun 2020
Tentang Kendaraan Tertentu
Perpres 55 Tahun 2019 PP 73 Tahun 2019 dengan Menggunakan
Tentang Percepatan KBLBB Tentang PPnBM Penggerak Motor Listrik
Double
11,6 - 15,5 13,1 - 17,5 150 - 200 12% 25% 10%
Cabin
< 11,6 < 13,1 > 200 15% 30%
KBH2 > 20 > 21,8 120 3%
Hybrid > 23 > 26 < 100 2%
> 23 > 26 < 100 2% 20%
Full Hybrid 18,4 -23 20 - 26 100 - 125 5% 25%
15,5 - 18,4 17,5 - 20 125 - 150 8% 30% Sumber : Kukuh Kumara, Sekjend Gaikindo, BASF Electrical Vehicle Webinar,
Program
17 Desember 2020
> 23 > 26 < 100 8% 20%
Mild Hybrid 18,4 -23 20 - 26 100 - 125 10% 25%
15,5 - 18,4 17,5 - 20 125 - 150 12% 30%
Flexy Engine (E100 / B100) 8%
PHEV, BEV,
> 28 > 28 < 100 0%
FCEV
Battery pack
The aluminium sheet-based 90-kWh battery
enclosure for EVs.
(Images: Novelis)
# 3.b
Body Repair Tech Note: Disconnecting 12V and High Voltage Power
Tesla Model 3
1st Generation Dual Motor High Voltage Components
Nissan Leaf BMW i3 Toyota Prius
15
Aluminium
content ~ 70kg
Cylinder Cells Pouch Cells Prismatic Cells Prismatic Cylinder
16
25. Indonesia Pemasok Material Utama Katoda Baterai EV Dunia
Baterai keunggulan
utama manufaktur
Pemain Global Material Antara (Katoda) Baterai
EV di Indonesia
Memanfaatkan hulu untuk membangun rantai nilai tengah dan hilir yang
kuat, menjadi produsen prekursor & katoda global dengan output tahunan
120 - 240 kTon untuk diekspor dan digunakan secara lokal
Ni–MH batteries outperform other rechargeable batteries and have higher capacity and less voltage
Source: Korea Battery Industry Association 2017 “Energy storage system technology and business model”.
depression.
Nickel–Cadmium (Ni–Cd) Battery
Lead Acid (PbA) Battery1) Vehivles
Nickel–Metal Hybrid (Ni–MH) Battery
Ni–MH batteries are currently finding widespread application in high-end portable electronic
Figure 1.4: Differentiating Characteristics of Different Battery Technologies Aproducts, where battery
nickel–cadmium performance
(Ni–Cd) battery is aparameters, notably
rechargeable batteryrun time,
used forare a major
portable consideration
computers, in the
drills,
camcorders, and other small battery-operated devices requiring an even power discharge.
The nickel–metal
purchase hydride battery chemistry is a hybrid of the proven positive electrode chemistry of
decision.
LifeSpan
Span the sealed nickel–cadmium battery with the energy storage features of metal alloys developed for
Energy density
Energy density Round
RoundTrip
Trip Life Figure E.2: Chemical and Physical Structures of Nickel-Cadmium Battery
Eco-friendliness
Eco-friendliness advanced
Source: hydrogen
Figure
Korea Battery E.3:energy
Industry storage
Chemical
Association andconcepts
2017 Physical
“Energy (Moltech
Structures
storage Power Systems
of Nickel-Metal
system technology 2018
and business
1
)
Hydride
model”. Battery
(kW/kg)
(kW/kg) Efficiency
Efficiency(%)
(%) (years)
(years)
Li-ion Ni–MH batteries outperform other rechargeable batteries and have higher capacity and less voltage
1st
1st 1st
1st 1st 1st
Eco-friendliness Nickel–Cadmium
depression. (Ni–Cd) Battery
(150–250)
150–250 95
95 (10–15)
10–15 Yes
Nickel Cadmium (Ni Cd)
ANi–MH
nickel–cadmium (Ni–Cd)
batteries are battery
currently is a rechargeable
finding battery used
widespread application for portable
in high-end computers,
portable drills,
electronic Electronic equipments
NaS
camcorders, and other small battery-operated devices requiring an even power discharge.
products, where battery performance parameters, notably run time, are a major consideration in the Battery 1)
2nd
2nd 2nd
2nd 3rd
2nd 2nd
X
purchase decision.
Figure E.2: Chemical and Physical Structures of Nickel-Cadmium Battery
(125–150)
125–150 (75–85)
75–85 (10–15)
10–15 No Figure E.3: Chemical and Physical Structures of Nickel-Metal Hydride Battery
Source: Korea Battery Industry Association 2017 “Energy storage system technology and business model”.
Flow
2nd
3rd 3rd
2nd 3rd
4th 4th 70
X Source: Korea Battery Industry Association 2017 “Energy storage system technology and business model”.
60–80
(60–80) 70–75
(70–75) 5–10
(20–25) No
Ni-Cd Lithium-Ion Battery Nickel-Metal Hydrid (Ni- High End Portable
4th
4th 4th
4th 3rd
4th 3rd
X
40–60
(40–60) 60–80
(60–80) 10–15
(5–10) No
Lithium-ion batteries have the highest energy density and are safe. No memory or scheduled cycling is MH) Battery 1) Electronics
required to prolong battery life. Lithium-ion batteries are used in electronic devices such as cameras,
calculators, laptop computers, and mobile phones, and are increasingly being used for electric mobility.
Lead
Lead Acid
Acid
5th
5th 5th
5th 5th
5th 5th
X
ENERGY
72
STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES
APPENDIX E
5 IndustryE.4:
Source: Korea BatteryFigure Physical
Association and Chemical
2017 “Energy Structures
storage system of business
technology and Lithium-Ion
model”. Battery
30–50
(30–50) 60–70
(60–70) 3–6
(3–6) No Source: Korea Battery Industry Association 2017 “Energy storage system technology and business model”.
70
to improve on the energy density of lithium secondary (rechargeable) batteries, and be priced below
$50 per kilowatt
Energy (kW).
density (Wh/kg) Figure E.5: Chemical and Physical Structures of Sodium-Sulfur Battery (Walawalkar 2014)
Source: Korea Battery Industry Association 2017 “Energy storage system technology and business model”.
1
Source: M. P. systems, “NiMH Technology,” 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.tayloredge.com/.../Batteries/Ni-MH_Generic.pdf.
Pb-acid Ni-Cd Ni-MH Li-ion Future Zn-air Li-S Li-air
Li-ion
Price €/kWh
200 600 600 300 <150 <150 <150 <150
1) Stacked electrodes 2) First prototypes 3) Foil or deposited 4) Typically blends of different cathode chemistries a nd specifically adapted anode chemistries. With major change of cathode material usually graphite is used first only
(Cathode and anode are typically not changed at the same time). Additional increase of energy density requires Si-additives on anode side (up to 20%)
31
Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger "Total Battery Cost and Price Model" 21-01-25_LiB_cluster_references_RolandBerger_vff.pptx 13
30. Posisi Strategis Indonesia/BUMN dalam Industri Baterai Global
13,500
Indonesia
Indonesia according to MEMR;
likely includes a
Canada
significant portion of low
6,500 grade deposits vs. Wood
Mackenzie assessment
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
Russian Federation
3,000
0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 2,0 2,1 2,2 2,3
penting lainnya seperti:
% Ni in Ore
Aluminium, Tembaga, Mangan
scale
5Mt nickel
#6 #5 #1 #6 #?
1.2 billion ton 51 million ton 21 million ton 43 million ton .... million ton
32
31. Rencana Pengembangan Industri EV Battery BUMN 2025 (berdasar Bench Mark)
6 Jt ton limonit HPAL 50k ton Ni 360K ton p.a. 30 GWh di 2024
9 Jt ton saprolit2 (ek. 65 GWh) katoda mulai 2024 140 GWh di 2030 R4 EV 0.3-0.7 3.7-7.6
(ek. 195 GWh) RKEF+POX 100k ton Ni (195 GWh e.g.,) ekspor GWh p.a. GWh p.a.
(ek.130 GWh) Domestic
katoda
305K ton di 2024-2029
100K ton di 2030
precursor/katoda Ekspor 9.2-8.0 23-137
(eq. 55-165 GWh) cell GWh p.a. GWh p.a.
Pada tahun 2030, Indonesia menjadi Pemain Global EV Battery dengan kapasitas produksi EV Battery cell mencapai 140 GWh
Note: GWh equivalent assume NMC 811 (LG Chem assumption) - based on ~750 ton Nickel /GWh (NMC 811)
1. Assuming Nickel produced in country but not consumed for precursor & cathode at the later stage gets exported. 2. Assuming cathode produced in country
but not consumer for battery manufacturing at the later stage gets exported
Source: Laporan Kemajuan Pekerjaan Tim EV Battery BUMN (2 Mar & 6 April 2020), BCG analysis
32. Potensi BUMN Menunjang Pengembangan Industri Kendaraan Listrik Nasional
Rantai Pasokan Industri Kendaraan Listrik
6
National Resources
JVCo National
Private with
Foreign or SOE
Mining – HPAL – Cathode Energy 7
EV Battery Cell
Nickel & Cobalt Battery Storage
& Pack
Sulphate Precursor System
1 2 3 4 Remote Area Electrification
BUMN dapat menunjang pengembangan IKLN melalui pengembangan industri baterai dari hulu s/d hilir
Driver 34
SOE’s Business Opportunities
33. Pemilihan Mitra Strategis untuk E2E Value Chain
MHP Battery Chemical and Cells Battery Cell, Battery xEVs, Electricity Supply, ESS
Nickel Ore Recycling
Ni,Co Sulphate Component Modules, and Packs and Infrastructures
Nickel ore Nickel & Cobalt Battery Precursor Cathode Battery Cell &Pack Electric ESS Charging Battery Recycling
Sulphate Vehicles Station
New Energy
Upstream to Cathode Battery Manufacturing xEV Recycling
Infra
SOE consortium
Potential partner
Consortium partner
Note: xEV includes various type of electric vehicle including HEV(Hybrid Electric Vehicle), BEV(Battery Electric Vehicle), PHEV(Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle)
34. Pemilihan Calon Mitra
Hasil dari due diligence mengerucut pada 6 Mitra Potential
11 pemain dunia1 berdasarkan … dipilih berdasarkan selection kriteria yang … untuk menentukan prioritas
kapasitas produksi … telah ditentukan … partner potensial
1 307
40 267
Wave 1
2 50 187 237
3 46 89 135
1. Top 10 from Statista report (Lithium-ion batteries worldwide, 2018); Northvolt from press search, company information; BCG Team analysis
35. Road Map Pengembangan Ekosistem Baterai EV Terintegrasi BUMN
Arthur D Little
This results in three cost bands – High, Moderate, and Best practice for each material required. Typically, cell
36. Komponen Baterai EV (2) : Contoh CATL’s battery value chains
Mining & Refining Cathode Anode Separator Electrolyte Cell Module Pack Recycling
Pibara Minerals JV: CATL-Brunp Putailai (Zichen) SEMCORP Guotai Huarong Brunp
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: CATL’s subsidiaries and joint ventures are marked with purple colors. Only lists major suppliers for each key component.
#5
Upstream
Produsen global untuk Nickel Pemain global untuk Pemain regional untuk
Sulphate precursor & cathode battery (EV / ESS) dan BEV
Kontribusi
Nilai tambah $3.6 $5.7 >$16.4
thd PDB 2025- Bn Bn Bn
20301 (per-
tahun)
670-1100
5x
$3.6 Bn
2025 2030 73
19
2025 2030 5% 14%
2025 2030
10% 23%
Indonesia
as ASEAN 225
EV Hub
64
2025 2030
Source: IHS markit, Indonesia Battery Masterplan, BCG analysis 8% 16%
#6
There are 4 key drivers for Pertamina to enter the battery business, namely:
42 . Tantangan bagi Para Insinyur ISU STRATEGIS
Pokok-pokon Ketentuan Perpres
Perpres no.55 th 2019 tentang Percepatan Program Kendaraan Bermotor Listrik Berbasis Baterai
Sumber : Prof. Dr-Eng. Eniya Listiani Dewi, B.Eng, M.Eng, BPPT, 20 Mei 2020
untuk Transportasi Jalan
• Persyaratan TKDN perlu diverifikasi dan diyakini dapat tercapai
• Industri KBL dan industri pendukung KBL harus dipastikan tersedia dan siap mendukung terbangunnya Industri
Dalam Negeri 4
TERIMAKASIH