SEPULUH LANGKAH

MENILAI KELAYAKAN INVESTASI

ALAT-ALAT KESEHATAN/ SARANA KESEHAT

1.Hitung potensi pasar yang ada saat

2.Prediksikan potensi pasar ke depan
3.Hitung nilai investasi yang diperluka
4.Hitung dan prediksikan cash inflow d
–Cash inflow = tarif x jumlah pengguna
•Untuk tahun terakhir ditambah dengan Nilai
–Cash outflow = biaya per pelayanan x ju
* Untuk tahun ke nol sesuai besaran investas
5.Hitung besaran depresiasi dan nilai resid
6.Hitung dan prediksikan Net Cash Inflow
7.Tentukan Sumber Pendanaan
8.Hitung Cost of Capital (CoC) atau Biaya
9.Hitung Net Present Value (NPV), Interna
•Investasi layak apabila NPV = + (positif)
•Investasi layak apabila IRR > CoC
•Investasi layak apabila PP sesuai harapan inv
10. Lakukan Sensitivity Analysis
Format Laporan
Rencana Investasi Alat-alat Keseha

1.Halaman Judul
2.Kata Pengantar
3.Daftar isi, tabel, gambar, lampiran
4.Executive Summary
5.Pendahuluan
6.Kajian Potensi Pasar
7.Kajian Finansial
8.Kajian Operasional
9.Kajian SDM
10.Kajian Legalitas
11.Kajian Manfaat Sosial
12.Kesimpulan dan Saran
13.Daftar Pustaka
14.Lampiran
 A KESEHATAN

ada saat ini

ke depan (sesuai umur ekonomis)
diperlukan
sh inflow dan cash outflow
pengguna
h dengan Nilai Residu
layanan x jumlah pengguna
saran investasi
an nilai residu
Cash Inflow (=(Cash inflow – cash outflow) + depresiasi).

atau Biaya Modal yang ditanggung.

PV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Pay back Period (PP).
(positif)

ai harapan investor
t Kesehatan

lampiran
epresiasi).

Period (PP).
 modal kerja
1 Gaji jml satuan
Perawat 10
CS 2
dr Sp A 3 Orang
1 Orang
2 Listrik 1 paket
Telp 1 paket
air 1 paket

3 BHP (sabun,farfum dll) 1 pket

pemeliharaan cathlab 1 paket
total

Investasi Gedung
Nama luas
NICU 200

grand total

Perlengkapan
1 Kelas 1 Jml Harga satuan
Paket Alkes 1 5,000,000,000
Paket mebeler 1 100,000,000

Total modal sendiri

GEDUNG
Alkes
Grand Total

TARIF RS
Kls 1
Prosedure Katup COR dng Kateterisasi Berat 58,753,000
Prosedur ventilator mekanikal longterm tanpa trakeostomi sdg 57,327,600
Prosedur ventilator mekanikal longterm tanpa trakeostomi berat 94,667,400
Prosedur ventilator mekanical lngterm dng trakeostomi sdng 87,802,500
Prosedur…………………………………………………………………………….. Berat 99,332,300
Sepsis sdng 6,180,100
sSepsis berat 8,332,800
Meningitis viral berat 11,704,700
Infeksi bakteri berat SSP 9,445,000
Ggn Napas Berat 7,323,000
Komplikasi dab Penatalaksanaan Berat 18,895,110
Prosedur katup COR non Kateterisasi Berat 83,601,000
visite dokter 150,000
jasa prwt 50,000
js penunjang 25,000
225,000
inflasi 22,500
bunga bank 31,500
Mamin 50,000
329,000
akomodasi 171,000 34%
tarif 500,000

seandainya BOR 100%, maka jumlah hari rawat pasien adalah 730 hr/th
sedangkan biaya perhari untuk 1 pasien adalah
bila kita jual dengan harga Rp 500.000/ps/hr, maka marginnya adalah:
171,000 34%
RP/bln jml/tahun
1,000,000 120,000,000 PNS/PHL?
850,000 20,400,000
7,500,000 270,000,000 410,400,000
12,500,000 150,000,000
3,000,000 36,000,000
3,000,000 36,000,000
3,000,000 36,000,000
-
15,000,000 180,000,000
100,000,000 1,200,000,000
2,048,400,000

Harga/M2 Rp
3,000,000 600,000,000

600,000,000

Jml
5,000,000,000
100,000,000
5,100,000,000

600,000,000
tdk dihitung bi;a yg beli pemerintah
600,000,000
 429

329,000
 UNTUK UMUR EKONOMIS 6 TAHUN
Layanan PICU
1 Analisa Potensi Pasar
a. Potensi pasar yang ada saat ini dan 6 tahun ke depan:
Prediksi paien-pasien yang akan menggunakan layanan PICU
2016 Rp 1,005
2017 2,000
2018 2,467
2019 3,778
2020 6,750
2021 7,088
2022 7,442
2023 7,814
2024 8,205
2025 8,615

Dari data 2018 diperkirakan 5%nya memerlukan tindakan, 3.416x5%=

Prosedure Katup COR dng Kateterisasi Berat

Prosedur ventilator mekanikal longterm tanpa trakeostomi sdg
Prosedur ventilator mekanikal longterm tanpa trakeostomi berat
Prosedur ventilator mekanical lngterm dng trakeostomi sdng
Prosedur…………………………………………………………………………….. Berat
Sepsis sdng
sSepsis berat
Meningitis viral berat
Infeksi bakteri berat SSP
Ggn Napas Berat
Komplikasi dab Penatalaksanaan Berat
Prosedur katup COR non Kateterisasi Berat

c. Perkiraan Pendapatan Layanan Cath Lab adalah :

Tarif Kelas 1 PICU, (termasuk layanan askep dan adm 44%)= 300000
jadi akomoddasi RS=
No Th Pendapatan kelas 3

Jumlah
kasus
1 Prosedure Katup COR dng Kateterisasi Berat 4
2 Prosedur ventilator mekanikal longterm tanpa trakeostomi sdg 6
3 Prosedur ventilator mekanikal longterm tanpa trakeostomi berat 8
4 Prosedur ventilator mekanical lngterm dng trakeostomi sdng 4
5 Neonatal, BBL Group 2 Dng Proses Mayor S 4
6 Sepsis sdng 8
7 sSepsis berat 6
8 Meningitis viral berat 4
9 Infeksi bakteri berat SSP 8
10 Ggn Napas Berat 4
11 Komplikasi dab Penatalaksanaan Berat 6
12 Prosedur katup COR non Kateterisasi Berat 11
70
Total perkiraan pendapatan

2. Nilai investasi yang diperlukan: harga alat,biaya latihan operator,gedung/tanah,

Nilai investasi
Gedung+alkes
Tanah
Modal kerja (dana operasional)
Total Inves

3. Sumber pendanaan:

hutang jangka pendek (dana operasional)

hutang jangka panjang (bank)
modal sendiri

WACC = Weight Average Cost of Capita

4. Prediksikan cash inflow dan cash outflow

 Th NILAI RESIDU
0
1
2
3
4
5
6 60,000,000

Presen Value (PV)

0 (2,648,400,000)
1 363,615,752
2 665,388,217
3 428,402,270
4 603,790,845
5 593,180,032
6 547,260,247

KESIMPULAN
1 dengan berpatokan perkiraan pengguna sesuai target, investasi
menjadi layak karena NVPnya positif, IRR > WACC
Payback Periodnya mulai tahun ke 5
2 Agar Investasi menjadi sangat layak, maka harus difikirkan sumber2 pendapatan lain yg hrs dikembangkan
3 Semua angka ini berdasarkan asumsi, agar lebih detail lagi harus denan penelitian, perlu waktu yang lebih
banyak.
Kenaikan kunju 5% /th

2018
189
Kls 3 Kls 2

2% 4 - -
3% 6 - -
4% 8 - -
2% 4 - -
2% 4 - -
4% 8 - -
3% 6 - -
2% 4 - -
4% 8 - -
2% 4 - -
3% 6 - -
6% 11 - -
70 - -

168,000
2019
 Pendapatan kelas 3 Pendapatan kelas 2

Jumla
Tarif layanan Total Tarif layanan Total
h
kasus
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - -
3,353,806,293

harga (Rp)
600,000,000.00

2,048,400,000.00
2,648,400,000.00

Rp Proporsi (%) Biaya modal (%)

2,048,400,000 77.34% 11.10%
0.0
600,000,000 22.7% 10%
2,648,400,000 100%

WACC = Weight Average Cost of Capital = 10,18%

 CASH INFLOW CASH OUT FLOW
2,648,400,000
3,353,806,293 2,850,735,348.68
6,117,481,822 5,199,859,548.65
4,556,911,337 3,873,374,636.80
6,744,523,709 5,732,845,152.38
7,285,619,464 6,192,776,544.74
7,435,837,389 6,320,461,780.50

NPV NPV(exel) (Rp)

553,237,362 Rp499,082,909.12

an lain yg hrs dikembangkan

litian, perlu waktu yang lebih
 2019
338
Kls 1 Kontrol Kls 3 Kls 2 Kls 1
100% 100%
4 7 - 7
6 10 - 10
8 14 - 14
4 7 - - 7
4 7 - - 7
8 14 - - 14
6 10 - - 10
4 7 - - 7
8 14 - - 14
4 7 - - 7
6 10 - - 10
11 20 - - 20
70 70 125 - - 125

2020
 Pendapatan kelas 1 Pendapatan kelas 3

Jumlah kasus Tarif layanan Total Jumlah kasus Tarif layanan

4 58,753,000 221,968,834 -
6 57,327,600 324,875,509 -
8 94,667,400 715,306,874 -
4 87,802,500 331,717,845 -
4 99,332,300 375,277,429 -
14 6,180,100 83,431,350 -
6 8,332,800 47,221,978 -
4 11,704,700 44,220,357 -
14 9,445,000 127,507,500 -
4 7,323,000 27,666,294
6 18,895,110 107,078,588
11 83,601,000 947,533,734
82 3,353,806,293 -
6,117,4

Biaya modal tertimbang(%)

WACC
8.59%
0
2.27%
10.85%
 DEPRESIASI NCI
(2,648,400,000)
100,000,000 403,070,944
100,000,000 817,622,273
100,000,000 583,536,701
100,000,000 911,678,556
100,000,000 992,842,920
100,000,000 1,015,375,608

IRR PP
16.9%
(2,284,784,248)
(1,619,396,032)
(1,190,993,762)
(587,202,917)
5,977,115
553,237,362
 2020
354
kontrol Kls 3 Kls 2 Kls 1 Kontrol
100%
7 - - 7
11 - - 11
14 - - 14
7 - - 7
7 - - 7
14 - - 14
11 - - 11
7 - - 7
14 - - 14
7 - - 7
11 - - 11
21 - - 21
125 131 - - 131 131
atan kelas 3 Pendapatan kelas 2 Pendapatan kelas 1

Jumla Jumlah
Total Tarif layanan Total Tarif layanan Total
h kasus
kasus
- - - - 7 58,753,000 416,411,888
- - - - 11 57,327,600 609,464,048
- - - - 14 94,667,400 1,341,910,395
- - - - 7 87,802,500 622,300,219
- - - - 7 99,332,300 704,017,676
- - - - 14 6,180,100 87,602,918
- - - - 11 8,332,800 88,588,080
- - - - 7 11,704,700 82,957,061
- - - - 14 9,445,000 133,882,875
7 7,323,000 51,901,763
11 18,895,110 200,878,638
21 83,601,000 1,777,566,263
- - - 131 6,117,481,822
6,117,481,822
2021 2022
372 391
Kls 3 Kls 2 Kls 1 Kontrol Kls 3 Kls 2
100%
7 - - 7 8 - -
11 - - 11 12 - -
15 - - 15 16 - -
7 - - 7 8 - -
7 - - 7 8 - -
15 - - 15 16 - -
11 - - 11 12 - -
7 - - 7 8 - -
15 - - 15 16 - -
7 - - 7 8 - -
11 - - 11 12 - -
22 - - 22 23 - -
138 - - 138 138 145 - -

2021
 Pendapatan kelas 3 Pendapatan kelas 2 Pendapatan kel
Jumla
Jumlah Jumlah
h Tarif layanan Total Tarif layanan Total
kasus kasus
kasus
- 58,753,000 - - - - 7
- 57,327,600 - - - - 11
- 94,667,400 - - - - 15
- 87,802,500 - - - - 7
- 99,332,300 - - - - 7
- 6,180,100 - - - - 15
- 8,332,800 - - - - 11
- 11,704,700 - - - - 7
- 9,445,000 - - - - 15
7
11
22
- - - - 138
4,556,911,337
 2023
410
Kls 1 Kontrol Kls 3 Kls 2 Kls 1 Kontrol
100% 100%
8 8 - - 8
12 12 - - 12
16 16 - - 16
8 8 - - 8
8 8 - - 8
16 16 - - 16
12 12 - - 12
8 8 - - 8
16 16 - - 16
8 8 - - 8
12 12 - - 12
23 25 - - 25
145 145 152 - - 152 152

2022
Pendapatan kelas 1 Pendapatan kelas 3 Pendapatan ke

Jumlah Jumlah
Tarif layanan Total Tarif layanan Total
kasus kasus
58,753,000 437,232,482 - 58,753,000 - -
57,327,600 639,937,250 - 57,327,600 - -
94,667,400 1,409,005,915 - 94,667,400 - -
87,802,500 653,415,230 - 87,802,500 - -
99,332,300 739,218,560 - 99,332,300 - -
6,180,100 91,983,063 - 6,180,100 - -
8,332,800 93,017,484 - 8,332,800 - -
11,704,700 87,104,914 - 11,704,700 - -
9,445,000 140,577,019 - 9,445,000 - -
7,323,000 54,496,851
18,895,110 210,922,570
83,601,000 1,866,444,576
4,556,911,337 - - -
6,744,523,709
2024
431
Kls 3 Kls 2 Kls 1 Kontrol
100%
9 - - 9
13 - - 13
17 - - 17
9 - - 9
9 - - 9
17 - - 17
13 - - 13
9 - - 9
17 - - 17
9 - - 9
13 - - 13
26 - - 26
159 - - 159 159

2023
Pendapatan kelas 2 Pendapatan kelas 1 Pendapat

Jumlah Jumlah
Tarif layanan Total Tarif layanan Total
kasus kasus
- - 8 58,753,000 459,094,106 0
- - 12 57,327,600 671,934,112 0
- - 16 94,667,400 1,479,456,210 0
- - 8 87,802,500 686,085,991 0
- - 8 99,332,300 776,179,488 0
- - 16 6,180,100 96,582,217 0
- - 12 8,332,800 97,668,358 0
- - 8 11,704,700 91,460,160 0
- - 16 9,445,000 147,605,870 0
8 7,323,000 57,221,693
12 18,895,110 221,468,699
23 83,601,000 1,959,766,804
- 145 6,744,523,709 -
 Pendapatan kelas 3 Pendapatan kelas 2 Pendapatan kelas 1

Jumlah Jumlah
Tarif layanan Total Tarif layanan Total
kasus kasus
58,753,000 - - - - 8
57,327,600 - - - - 12
94,667,400 - - - - 16
87,802,500 - - - - 8
99,332,300 - - - - 8
6,180,100 - - - - 16
8,332,800 - - - - 12
11,704,700 - - - - 8
9,445,000 - - - - 16
8
12
25
- - - 152
7,285,619,464
2024
Pendapatan kelas 1 Pendapatan kelas 3 Pendapa

Jumlah Jumlah
Tarif layanan Total Tarif layanan Total
kasus kasus
58,753,000 685,918,382 - 58,753,000 - -
57,327,600 705,530,818 - 57,327,600 - -
94,667,400 1,553,429,021 - 94,667,400 - -
87,802,500 720,390,291 - 87,802,500 - -
99,332,300 814,988,462 - 99,332,300 - -
6,180,100 101,411,327 - 6,180,100 - -
8,332,800 102,551,776 - 8,332,800 - -
11,704,700 96,033,168 - 11,704,700 - -
9,445,000 154,986,163 - 9,445,000 - -
7,323,000 60,082,778
18,895,110 232,542,134
83,601,000 2,057,755,145
7,285,619,464 - - -
7,435,837,389
Pendapatan kelas 2 Pendapatan kelas 1

Jumlah
Tarif layanan Total Tarif layanan Total
kasus
- - 9 58,753,000 506,151,252
- - 13 57,327,600 740,807,359
- - 17 94,667,400 1,631,100,472
- - 9 87,802,500 756,409,805
- - 9 99,332,300 855,737,886
- - 17 6,180,100 106,481,894
- - 13 8,332,800 107,679,365
- - 9 11,704,700 100,834,826
- - 17 9,445,000 162,735,471
9 7,323,000 63,086,917
13 18,895,110 244,169,240
26 83,601,000 2,160,642,902
- 159 7,435,837,389
 Initial investment
1 Gedung dan Alkes - 600,000,000.00
2 Shipping (biaya pengiriman)
3 Installation -
4 Working capital (modal kerja/curren asset/ - 2,048,400,000.00
persediaan untuk beroperasinya alat)
- 2,648,400,000.00
5 Economic life (umur ekonomis) 20.00
6 Gedung dan alkes 10,553,550,000.00
7 Annual depreciation 527,677,500.00
8 Tax (pph) 30%
9 Salvage value (residual value=harga gedung dan 1,055,355,000.00 (asumsi)
10 alkes bila dijual setelah habis umur ekonomisnya)
11 WACC 10.85%
ESTIMASI PENDAPATAN DAN BIAYA OPRASIONAL:
No Uraian Tahun 0 1
11 Sales (asumsi pertumbuhan penjualan)/proyeksi 58,753,000.00
12 Expenses (asumsi biaya(gaji,listrik dll) 2,074,251,320.00

PERHITUNGAN KELAYAKAN:
Uraian Tahun 0 1
Gedung+Alkes - 600,000,000.00
Shipping -
Installation -
Working capital - 2,048,400,000.00
Sales 58,753,000.00
Expenses - 2,074,251,320.00
Depreciation expense - 527,677,500.00
EBIT(earnings before interest & taxes)/laba operasi - 2,543,175,820.00
Tax (30% dari EBIT) - 762,952,746.00
NOPAT (net operating profit after taxes)/(EBIT-pajak) - 3,306,128,566.00
Depreciation expense 527,677,500.00
Salvage value
Working capital
FCF( free cash flow/NCI ) - 2,648,400,000.00 - 2,778,451,066.00
PP - 5,426,851,066.00
NPV #NAME? #NAME?
IRR #NAME?
MIRR 3.45%
WACC 10.18%

Kesimpulan : NPV positif, IRR>WACC------> LAYAK

Salvage value 25000

Sales 200000
Expenses 120000

Year 0 1
X-ray - 200,000.00
Shipping - 10,000.00
Installation - 30,000.00
Working capital - 20,000.00
Sales 200000
Expenses -120000
Depreciation expense -60000
EBIT 20000
Tax -6000
NOPAT 14000
Depreciation expense 60000
Salvage value
Working capital
FCF - 260,000.00 74000

NPV £255,273.96 -£4,726.04

IRR 14.18%
MIRR 14.47%
langkah
pertama
3530%
2 3
57,327,600.00 94,667,400.00
2,073,624,144.00 2,090,053,656.00
2 3
57,327,600.00 94,667,400.00
- 2,073,624,144.00 - 2,090,053,656.00
- 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00
- 2,543,974,044.00 - 2,523,063,756.00
- 763,192,213.20 - 756,919,126.80
- 3,307,166,257.20 - 3,279,982,882.80
527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00
- 2,779,488,757.20 - 2,752,305,382.80 -
(8,206,339,823.20) (10,958,645,206.00) (12,199,803,376.00) (13,436,441,864.40)
4 5
87,802,500.00 99,332,300.00
2,087,033,100.00 2,092,106,212.00
4 5
87,802,500.00 99,332,300.00
- 2,087,033,100.00 - 2,092,106,212.00
- 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00
- 2,526,908,100.00 - 2,520,451,412.00
758,072,430.00 756,135,423.60
- 1,768,835,670.00 - 1,764,315,988.40
527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00
1,241,158,170.00 - 1,236,638,488.40
 220000 242000 266200
132000 145200 159720

2 3 4

220000 242000 266200

-132000 -145200 -159720
-60000 -60000 -60000
28000 36800 46480
-8400.00000000001 -11040 -13944
19600 25760 32536
60000 60000 60000
17,500.00
20,000.00
79600 85760 130,036.00
 6 7 8 9
6,180,100.00 8,332,800.00 11,704,700.00 9,445,000.00
2,051,119,244.00 2,052,066,432.00 2,053,550,068.00 2,052,555,800.00

6 7 8 9

6,180,100.00 8,332,800.00 11,704,700.00 9,445,000.00

- 2,051,119,244.00 - 2,052,066,432.00
- 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00
- 2,572,616,644.00 - 2,571,411,132.00
771,784,993.20 771,423,339.60
- 1,800,831,650.80 - 1,799,987,792.40
527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00
- 2,053,550,068.00 - 2,052,555,800.00
- 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00
- 2,569,522,868.00 - 2,570,788,300.00
770,856,860.40 771,236,490.00
- 1,798,666,007.60 - 1,799,551,810.00
527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00

- 1,273,154,150.80 - 1,272,310,292.40 - 1,270,988,507.60 - 1,271,874,310.00

(14,709,596,015.20) (15,981,906,307.60) (17,252,894,815.20) (18,524,769,125.20)
 10 11 12 13 14
- 7,435,837,388.83 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2,048,400,000.00 5,320,168,451.08 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

10 11 12 13 14

- 7,435,837,388.83 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

- 2,048,400,000.00 - 5,320,168,451.08 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
- 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00
- 2,576,077,500.00 1,587,991,437.74 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
772,823,250.00 - 476,397,431.32 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
- 1,803,254,250.00 1,111,594,006.42 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00

- 1,275,576,750.00 1,639,271,506.42 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

(19,800,345,875.20) (18,161,074,368.78) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
 15 16 17 18
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

15 16 17 18

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
- 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
 19 20
#NAME? #NAME? lankah
#NAME? #NAME? kedua

19 20

#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
- 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 <---- karena biaya fiktif, jadi perlu ditambahkan kembali
738,748,500 <------(1.055.355.000-pajak 30%)
2,048,400,000.00
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? <----------PP > 5th ,tdk sesuai harapan
ahkan kembali
 Definisi Payback Period

Periode pengembalian – payback period

Periode “Payback” menunjukkan berapa lama (dlm beberapa tahun) investasi akan bisa
kembali. Periode “Payback” menunjukkan perbandingan antara “initial investment” dengan
aliran kas tahunan, dengan rumus umu sebagai berikut :

Nilai Investasi
Payback Period = _______________
Proceed

Apabila periode payback kurang dari suatu periode yang telah ditentukan proyek tersebut
diterima, apabila tidak proyek tersebut ditolak.

Jangka waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk mengembalikan nilai investasi

melalui penerimaan – penerimaan yang dihasilkan oleh proyek
investasi tersebut juga untuk mengukur kecepatan kembalinya dana
investasi.
Kebaikan dan Kelemahan Payback Method
Kebaikan Payback Method
1) Digunakan untuk mengetahui jangka waktu yang diperlukan untuk
pengembalian investasi dengan resiko yang besar dan sulit.
2) Dapat digunakan untuk menilai dua proyek investasi yg mempunyai
rate of return dan resiko yang sama, sehingga dapat dipilih
investasi yang jangka waktu pengembaliannya cepat.
3) Cukup sederhana untuk memilih usul-usul investasi.
Kelemahan Payback Method
1) Tidak memperhatikan nilai waktu dari uang.
2) Tidak memperhitungkan nilai sisa dari investasi.
3) Tidak memperhatikan arus kas setelah periode pengembalian tercapai.

Rumus periode pengembalian jika arus kas per tahun jumlahnya berbeda

a-b
Payback Period = n +_____ x 1 tahun
c-b

n = Tahun terakhir dimana jumlah arus kas masih belum bisa menutup investasi mula-mula
a = Jumlah investasi mula-mula
b = Jumlah kumulatif arus kas pada tahun ke – n
c = Jumlah kumulatif arus kas pada tahun ke n + 1
Rumus periode pengembalian jika arus kas per tahun jumlahnya sama
 Investasi awal
Payback Period = --------------------x 1 tahun
Arus kas

· Periode pengembalian lebih cepat : layak

· Periode pengembalian lebih lama : tidak layak
· Jika usulan proyek investasi lebih dari satu maka periode pengembalian yang lebih cepat yang dipilih

Contoh kasus arus kas setiap tahun jumlahnya berbeda

Suatu usulan proyek investasi senilai Rp. 600 juta dengan umur ekonomis 5 tahun, Syarat periode pengembalian 2
· Tahun 1 RP. 300 juta
· Tahun 2 Rp. 250 juta
· Tahun 3 Rp. 200 juta
· Tahun 4 Rp. 150 juta
· Tahun 5 Rp. 100 juta

Arus kas dan arus kas kumulatif

Tahun Arus kas Arus kas kumulatif

1 300,000,000 300,000,000
2 250,000,000 550,000,000
3 200,000,000 750,000,000
4 150,000,000 900,000,000
5 100,000,000 1,000,000,000

Periode Pengembalian
a-b
= n +_____ x 1 tahun
c-b

Rp 600jt - Rp 550jt

=2 + _______________ x 1 tahun
Rp 750jt - Rp 550jt

= 2,25 tahun atau 2 tahun 3 bulan

v Periode pengembalian lebih dari yang disyaratkan oleh perusahaan maka usulan proyek investasi in
 lebih cepat yang dipilih

arat periode pengembalian 2 tahun, dengan tingkat bunga 12% per tahun, dan arus kas pertahun adalah :

ka usulan proyek investasi ini di tolak

 Initial investment
1 Gedung dan Alkes - 600,000,000.00
2 Shipping (biaya pengiriman)
3 Installation -
4 Working capital (modal kerja/curren asset/ - 2,048,400,000.00
persediaan untuk beroperasinya alat)
- 2,648,400,000.00

5 Economic life (umur ekonomis) 20.00

6 Gedung dan alkes 10,553,550,000.00
7 Annual depreciation 527,677,500.00

8 Tax (pph) 30%

9 Salvage value (residual value=harga gedung 1,055,355,000.00 (asumsi)
10 alkes bila dijual setelah habis umur ekonomisnya)
11 WACC 10.85%

ESTIMASI PENDAPATAN DAN BIAYA OPRASIONAL:

Th Expenses (asumsi
ke Sales (asumsi biaya(gaji,listrik dll )
pertumbuhan
penjualan)/proyeksi
1 58,753,000 2,074,251,320.00
2 57,327,600 2,073,624,144.00
3 94,667,400 2,090,053,656.00
4 87,802,500 2,087,033,100.00
5 99,332,300 2,092,106,212.00
6 6,180,100 2,051,119,244.00
7 8,332,800 2,052,066,432.00
8 11,704,700 2,053,550,068.00
9 9,445,000 2,052,555,800.00
10 - 2,048,400,000.00
11 7,435,837,389 5,320,168,451.08
12 #NAME? #NAME?
13 #NAME? #NAME?
14 #NAME? #NAME?
15 #NAME? #NAME?
16 #NAME? #NAME?
17 #NAME? #NAME?
18 #NAME? #NAME?
19 #NAME? #NAME?
20 #NAME? #NAME?
Th
ke
Gedung+Alkes Shipping Installation Working capital
0 (600,000,000) - 2,048,400,000.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
 ESTIMASI PENDAPATAN DAN BIAYA OPRASIONAL:
No Uraian Tah 1 2
11 Sales (asumsi pertumbuhan penjualan)/pro 58,753,000.00 57,327,600.00
12 Expenses (asumsi biaya(gaji,listrik dll) 60% 2,074,251,320.00 2,073,624,144.00

PERHITUNGAN KELAYAKAN:
Uraian Tahun 0 1 2
Gedung+Alkes - 600,000,000.00
Shipping -
Installation -
Working capital - 2,048,400,000.00
Sales 58,753,000.00 57,327,600.00
Expenses - 2,074,251,320.00 - 2,073,624,144.00
Depreciation expense - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00
EBIT(earnings before interest & taxes)/laba- 2,543,175,820.00 - 2,543,974,044.00
Tax (30% dari EBIT) - 762,952,746.00 - 763,192,213.20
NOPAT (net operating profit after taxes)/( - 3,306,128,566.00 - 3,307,166,257.20
Depreciation expense 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00
Salvage value
Working capital
FCF( free cash flow/ - 2,648,400,000.00 - 2,778,451,066.00 - 2,779,488,757.20
PP - 5,426,851,066.00 (8,206,339,823.20)
NPV #NAME? #NAME?
IRR #NAME?
MIRR 3.18%
WACC 10.18%
Salvage value 25000

Sales 200000 220000

Expenses 120000 132000

Year 0 1 2
X-ray - 200,000.00
Shipping - 10,000.00
Installation - 30,000.00
Working capital - 20,000.00
Sales 200000 220000
Expenses -120000 -132000
Depreciation expense -60000 -60000
EBIT 20000 28000
Tax -6000 -8400.00000000001
NOPAT 14000 19600
Depreciation expense 60000 60000
Salvage value
Working capital
FCF - 260,000.00 74000 79600

NPV £255,273.96 -£4,726.04

IRR 14.18%
MIRR 14.47%
langkah
pertama

3530%
Sales Expenses Depreciation expense EBIT(earnings before in

58,753,000 - 2,074,251,320.00 - 527,677,500.00 (2,543,175,820)

57,327,600 - 2,073,624,144.00 - 527,677,500.00 (2,543,974,044)
94,667,400 - 2,090,053,656.00 - 527,677,500.00 (2,523,063,756)
87,802,500 - 2,087,033,100.00 - 527,677,500.00 (2,526,908,100)
99,332,300 - 2,092,106,212.00 - 527,677,500.00 (2,520,451,412)
6,180,100 - 2,051,119,244.00 - 527,677,500.00 (2,572,616,644)
8,332,800 - 2,052,066,432.00 - 527,677,500.00 (2,571,411,132)
11,704,700 - 2,053,550,068.00 - 527,677,500.00 (2,569,522,868)
9,445,000 - 2,052,555,800.00 - 527,677,500.00 (2,570,788,300)
- - 2,048,400,000.00 - 527,677,500.00 (2,576,077,500)
7,435,837,389 - 5,320,168,451.08 - 527,677,500.00 1,587,991,438
#NAME? #NAME? - 527,677,500.00 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? - 527,677,500.00 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? - 527,677,500.00 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? - 527,677,500.00 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? - 527,677,500.00 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? - 527,677,500.00 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? - 527,677,500.00 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? - 527,677,500.00 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? - 527,677,500.00 #NAME?
- - -
 3 4 5 6
94,667,400.00 87,802,500.00 99,332,300.00 6,180,100.00
2,090,053,656.00 2,087,033,100.00 2,092,106,212.00 2,051,119,244.00

3 4 5 6

94,667,400.00 87,802,500.00 99,332,300.00 6,180,100.00

- 2,090,053,656.00 - 2,087,033,100.00 - 2,092,106,212.00 - 2,051,119,244.00
- 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00
- 2,523,063,756.00 - 2,526,908,100.00 - 2,520,451,412.00 - 2,572,616,644.00
- 756,919,126.80 758,072,430.00 756,135,423.60 771,784,993.20
- 3,279,982,882.80 - 1,768,835,670.00 - 1,764,315,988.40 - 1,800,831,650.80
527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00

- 2,752,305,382.80 - 1,241,158,170.00 - 1,236,638,488.40 - 1,273,154,150.80

(10,958,645,206.00) (12,199,803,376.00) (13,436,441,864.40) (14,709,596,015.20)
242000 266200
145200 159720

3 4

242000 266200
-145200 -159720
-60000 -60000
36800 46480
-11040 -13944
25760 32536
60000 60000
17,500.00
20,000.00
85760 130,036.00
 NOPAT (net
operating profit
after taxes)/(EBIT-
pajak)
Tax (30% dari EBIT) Depreciation expenseSalvage value Working capital

(762,952,746) (3,306,128,566) 527,677,500.00

(763,192,213) (3,307,166,257) 527,677,500.00
(756,919,127) (3,279,982,883) 527,677,500.00
758,072,430 (1,768,835,670) 527,677,500.00
756,135,424 (1,764,315,988) 527,677,500.00
771,784,993 (1,800,831,651) 527,677,500.00
771,423,340 (1,799,987,792) 527,677,500.00
770,856,860 (1,798,666,008) 527,677,500.00
771,236,490 (1,799,551,810) 527,677,500.00
772,823,250 (1,803,254,250) 527,677,500.00
(476,397,431) 1,111,594,006 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? 527,677,500.00 738,748,500 2,048,400,000.00
 7 8 9 10 11
8,332,800.00 11,704,700.00 9,445,000.00 - 7,435,837,388.83
2,052,066,432.00 2,053,550,068.00 2,052,555,800.00 ### 5,320,168,451.08

7 8 9 10 11

8,332,800.00 11,704,700.00 9,445,000.00 - 7,435,837,388.83

- 2,052,066,432.00 - 2,053,550,068.00 - 2,052,555,800.00 ### - 5,320,168,451.08
- 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 ### - 527,677,500.00
- 2,571,411,132.00 - 2,569,522,868.00 - 2,570,788,300.00 ### 1,587,991,437.74
771,423,339.60 770,856,860.40 771,236,490.00 ### - 476,397,431.32
- 1,799,987,792.40 - 1,798,666,007.60 - 1,799,551,810.00 ### 1,111,594,006.42
527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 ### 527,677,500.00

- 1,272,310,292.40 - 1,270,988,507.60 - 1,271,874,310.00 ### 1,639,271,506.42

(15,981,906,307.60) (17,252,894,815.20) (18,524,769,125.20) ### (18,161,074,368.78)
FCF( free cash flow/NPP NPV IRR
(2,648,400,000) #NAME? #NAME?
(2,778,451,066.00) (5,426,851,066.00) #NAME?
(2,779,488,757.20) (8,206,339,823.20)
(2,752,305,382.80) (10,958,645,206.00)
(1,241,158,170.00) (12,199,803,376.00)
(1,236,638,488.40) (13,436,441,864.40)
(1,273,154,150.80) (14,709,596,015.20)
(1,272,310,292.40) (15,981,906,307.60)
(1,270,988,507.60) (17,252,894,815.20)
(1,271,874,310.00) (18,524,769,125.20)
(1,275,576,750.00) (19,800,345,875.20)
1,639,271,506.42 (18,161,074,368.78)
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
 12 13 14 15
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

12 13 14 15

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
- 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
MIRR
3.45%
 16 17 18 19
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

16 17 18 19

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
- 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00 - 527,677,500.00
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00 527,677,500.00

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
 20
#NAME? lankah
#NAME? kedua

20

#NAME?
#NAME?
- 527,677,500.00
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
527,677,500.00 <---- karena biaya fiktif, jadi perlu ditambahkan kembali
738,748,500 <------(1.055.355.000-pajak 30%)
2,048,400,000.00
#NAME?
#NAME? <----------PP > 5th ,tdk sesuai harapan