Telecommunication

07 March 2024 Company Report

BUY/BUY 3M/12M Rating Telkom Indonesia

12M Target Price:
Previous Target Price
Upside/Downside
BNIS / Consensus
Share Price (06-Mar-24)
Share info and key metrics
Bloomberg Ticker
52-week range
Market cap. Rp386tr/US$24,592mn membalikkan tren penurunan dari 4Q21. Pada saat yang sama, Indihome
Shares outstanding (mn)
Free float (%)
Avg.daily trading volume, mn (3M)
Avg.daily trading value,US$mn(3M)
Key Shareholders
Government of Indonesia
- - memposisikan diri untuk memanfaatkan bisnis data
- -
Share Price Performance
1M
Absolute (2.0)
Relative to JCI (3.1)
Source: Bloomberg
Valuation and financial highlights
Revenue (% yoy)
EBITDA (% yoy)
Core EPS (% yoy)
P/CF (x)
P/BV (x)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
ROE (%)
Net Gearing (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
BNIS/Cons. EPS (%)
Chg. in Core EPS Est. (%)
Source: BNIS Research
Aurellia Setiabudi
aurellia.setiabudi@bnisekuritas.co.id
+62-21-2554 3946 Ext. 2123
Kevin Halim
kevin.halim@bnisekuritas.co.id
+62-21-2554 3946 Ext. 3986
Rp4,600 Mempercepat pertumbuhan melalui
Rp4,200
FMC
+ 17.9%
-0.1% Memanfaatkan pertumbuhan melalui basis pelanggan TSEL-Indihome yang
sudah ada. TLKM akan mengalami rebound keuangan setelah pertumbuhan
Rp3,900 pendapatan yang lemah di bawah 3% pada FY22-23F. Pertumbuhan pendapatan
diperkirakan sebesar CAGR 4,8% dari FY23 hingga FY26F, dengan EBITDA
diperkirakan akan meningkat sebesar CAGR 6,0%, didorong oleh Fixed-Mobile
TLKM IJ Convergence (FMC). Inisiatif FMC telah menghasilkan pertumbuhan pelanggan
yang cukup besar untuk TSEL dan Indihome di 3Q23. TSEL mengalami
Rp3,390 -Rp4,500
peningkatan yang signifikan dengan penambahan 5 juta pelanggan baru di 3Q23,
99,062 mencatat penambahan 273 ribu pelanggan baru di 3Q23, meningkat secara
signifikan dari rata-rata 151 ribu pelanggan baru selama sepuluh kuartal
47.9 sebelumnya. TLKM bertujuan untuk melanjutkan pertumbuhan ini dengan
313.3 mengintensifkan upaya penjualan silang di 11 juta pelanggan rumah tangga yang
19.9 potensial. Kami memperkirakan basis pelanggan TSEL akan tetap stabil di 156
juta hingga FY26F, sementara Indihome diproyeksikan akan mencapai 12 juta
pelanggan, tumbuh sebesar 2 juta.
52.1% Kemajuan bisnis data center dan Fiber Co. TLKM secara strategis
center dengan
mendivestasikan sebagian dari bisnis ini kepada mitra strategis yang memiliki
keahlian di bidang ini, seperti Keppel DC atau Equinix. Sejalan dengan
komitmennya terhadap bisnis konektivitas inti, TLKM berencana untuk
mendivestasikan hingga 50% dari operasi data center-nya, yang kami perkirakan
3M 6M 12M akan memiliki kapasitas 62 MW pada FY24F (FY23: 45MW). Mengacu pada M&A
(0.5) 2.9 0.5 baru-baru ini di sektor pusat data, yang telah melihat valuasi rata-rata US$25,9
juta per MW, divisi pusat data TLKM diperkirakan bernilai sekitar US$1,6 miliar,
(3.9) (1.9) (7.2) atau sekitar Rp25 triliun. Valuasi ini merupakan 5% dari valuasi SOTP TLKM saat
ini. Pada saat yang sama, TLKM secara aktif menyusun strategi untuk
meningkatkan nilai dari jaringan serat optik backbone sepanjang 175 km.
Rencana ini bertujuan untuk mengoptimalkan pemanfaatan dan profitabilitas dari
aset infrastruktur yang substansial ini.
FY23F FY24F FY25F
2.4 4.7 4.8 Perubahan dalam asumsi kami. Perkiraan kami yang telah diperbarui untuk
1.4 6.0 6.1
TLKM mencerminkan peningkatan jumlah pelanggan Indihome dan peningkatan
ARPU seluler TSEL, yang mengarah pada peningkatan estimasi pendapatan
4.5 8.4 9.2 sebesar 0,3%, 0,9%, dan 1,0% untuk FY23F-25F. Kami juga telah memasukkan
13.8 12.5 10.6 sinergi biaya yang diharapkan, dengan memproyeksikan kenaikan 140 basis poin
2.7 2.6 2.4 pada marjin EBITDA gabungan TLKM menjadi 54,5% pada FY25F dari 53,1%
14.9 13.8 12.6
pada FY23F. Oleh karena itu, estimasi EBITDA yang direvisi tumbuh sebesar
0,4%, 2,7%, dan 3,6% pada FY23F-25F, dengan penyesuaian laba bersih
5.4 5.2 4.8 sebesar -0,01%, 2,4%, dan 4,0%. Perkiraan laba bersih ini sebagian besar
19.1 19.3 19.8 sejalan dengan Konsensus Bloomberg, yaitu 100,6%, 101,3%, dan 103,3% untuk
17.2 16.4 12.0 masing-masing tahun.
4.3 5.0 5.4 Pertahankan 3M BUY/12M BUY dengan TP yang lebih tinggi di Rp4.600.
101 101 103 Inisiatif ekstensif dan strategis TLKM yang bertujuan untuk meningkatkan
0 2 4 profitabilitas dari portofolio bisnis yang ada saat ini tampaknya masih dinilai terlalu
rendah oleh pasar. Dengan adanya ekspektasi akselerasi kinerja keuangan, kami
menegaskan kembali peringkat 3M BUY/12M BUY untuk TLKM dengan valuasi
DCF yang meningkat. Target harga baru kami yang berbasis SOTP sekarang
ditetapkan pada Rp4.600 (naik dari Rp4.200), yang mengindikasikan 6,0x
EV/EBITDA FY24F, 0,7SD dari rata-rata lima tahun. Melihat akselerasi kinerja
keuangan TLKM, kami percaya bahwa perusahaan ini layak mendapatkan valuasi
di atas rata-rata lima tahun. Beberapa risiko downside utama untuk panggilan
kami termasuk perang harga yang berulang dan eksekusi yang buruk dari inisiatif
FMC, pusat data, dan Infra Co. Per 24 Februari, kepemilikan investor asing di
TLKM meningkat 2,9% poin yoy menjadi 67%, sedangkan kepemilikan investor
lokal menurun 3,0% poin yoy menjadi 29%.

This report has been prepared by PT BNI Sekuritas. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON THE LAST PAGE.
BNI Sekuritas | Telecommunication

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12M Rating Definition

BUY Total return is expected to be above 10%.
HOLD Total return is expected to be between -10% to 10%
SELL Total return is expected to be below -10%.

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BNI Sekuritas | Telecommunication

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