Power Point Portfolio
Power Point Portfolio
FAKULTAS EKONOMI
UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA
Bahan Pengajaran
1. Mahasiswa membawa laptop
2. Mahasiswa membawa data harga saham,
masing-masing 5 perusahaan.
Proses Pengajaran
1. Mahasiswa dibimbing membuat portfolio.
2. Menjelaskan teori portofolio sambil
membuat program simulasi portofolio.
3. Melakukan perubahan investasi setiap
minggu.
4. Memberikan laporan perkembangan
portofolio mingguan dan akhir periode.
5. Presentasi
BAB 1
Return Saham dan Portofolio
Portfolio
Portfolio adalah kumpulan investasi yang
dipegang oleh seseorang/lembaga
Portfolio adalah investasi pada lebih dari
satu instrumen
Rerata Hitung
n
Ri = Rit /n
t=1
n
Ri = 1/n Rit
t=1
Rerata Hitung
Jika probabilitas return tidak sama setiap
periode, maka rerata return saham tersebut
dinyatakan sbb.
n
Ri = pitRit
t=1
Rerata Ukur
g = [(1+r1)(1+r2)(1+r3)..(1+rn)]1/n 1
g = rerata ukur
rn = total return pada periode ke n
(1+rn) merupakan return relatif karena return
yang negatif tidak bisa digunakan.
Pt Pt-1
Dt
+
Rt
Pt-1
Pt-1t
= return saham
hari ke
Pt-1
Rt
Dt
= Deviden hari t
R1 + R2 + R3 +..R31
= rata-rata return30
atau expected
return saham i
= return saham hari 1 sampai hari
ke 30
Return Portfolio
V1 V0 + D1
Rp =
V0
Keterangan:
Rp = rate of return portfolio
V0 = nilai pasar portfolio pada awal periode
V1 = nilai pasar porfolio pada akhir periode
D1 = deviden yang diterima atas saham-saham
Uraian
Portfolio A
Investasi Awal
Tambahan Investasi
Penarikan Dana
Jumlah yang diinvestasikan
Nilai Akhir
Kenaikan
Portfolio B
Investasi Awal
Tambahan Investasi
Penarikan Dana
Jumlah yang diinvestasikan
Nilai Akhir
Kenaikan
2,000
0
0
2,000
2,200
10.0%
2,200
1,000
0
3,200
2,880
-10.0%
2,880
0
1,000
1,880
2,068
10.0%
2,068
2,000
1,000
0
3,000
3,300
10.0%
3,300
0
1,000
2,300
2,070
-10.0%
2,070
0
0
2,070
2,277
10.0%
2,277
Nilai Portfolio
V0 = P1Q1 + P2Q2 + P3Q3
CF2
+
CFn + TV
+
(1 + r)
(1 + r)2
(1 + r)3
Keterangan:
V0 = nilai saham pada awal periode
CF1..n = cash flow periode 1 sampai n
TV = terminal value
r
= internal rate of return
NPV1
IRR = r1 + (r2 - r1)(
)
NPV1-NPV2
379.612
IRR = 29,72%
Annualizing Return
Annualizing return dapat digunakan jika periode
observasi kurang atau lebih dari satu tahun.
Annual return = (1 + average period return)n 1
n = number of period in year
Return saham UNTR setahun adalah
(1+0,00333)242-1 = 123,69%. (Jumlah hari
transaksi dalam setahun pada 2006 adalah 242
hari) atau (1+0,00333)31-1 = 10,86% sebulan
Rp = wiRi
i=1
BAB 2
Resiko Saham dan Portofolio
Deviasi Standar =
i2
i2 = pit(Rit -Ri)2
t=1
dengan
Resiko Portfolio
p2 = E(Rit -Ri)2
Subsitusikan Rit dengan w1R1t + w2R2t
= E[(w1R1t + w2R2t) (w1R1 + w2R2)]2
= E[(w1(R1t-R1) + w2(R2t-R2)]2
p2 = E[w12(R1t -R1)2 + 2w1w2(R1t -R1)(R2t -R2) + w22(R2t -R2)2]
= w12E(R1t -R1)2 + 2w1w2 E(R1t -R1)(R2t -R2) + w22 E(R2t -R2)2
Koefisien Korelasi
12
12 =
1 2
12 = 1212
Koefisien Korelasi +1
(Perfect Positive Correlation)
Jika koefisien korelasi return dua saham adalah +1 atau
berkorelasi positif sempurna, maka
p2 = w1212 + 2w1w212 + w2222
= w1212 + 2w1 (1-w1) 12 12 + (1- w1)222
= [w11 + (1- w1)2]2
p = w11 + (1- w1)2
= w1(1 - 2 ) + 2
Sehingga:
(p - 2) = w1(1 - 2)
(p - 2)
w1 =
( - )
Rp = (
Rp =
p - 2
1 - 2
p - 2
)R1 + (1 -
1 - 2
pR1 - 2R1
p(R1 - R2)
1 - 2
Rp = [R2 -
pR2 - 2R2
) + (R2 -
1 - 2
)R2
+ R2 -
)
1 - 2
2(R1 -R2)
(R1 -R2) 2
1 - 2
R1 - R2
] +[
1 - 2
1 - 2
] p
Deviasi
Return
Standar
KLBF
TLKM
KLBF
0.01072
0.02941
0.00086
0.00008
TLKM
0.00134
0.02310
Saham
Kovarians
0.00053
Hubungan Rp dan
0.10
0.90
0.02373
0.00228
0.20
0.80
0.02436
0.00322
0.30
0.70
0.02499
0.00415
0.40
0.60
0.02562
0.00509
0.50
0.50
0.02625
0.00603
0.60
0.40
0.02689
0.00697
0.70
0.30
0.02752
0.00791
0.80
0.20
0.02815
0.00884
0.90
0.10
0.02878
0.00978
1.00
0.00
0.02941
0.01072
Expected Retun
0.0100
0.0080
0.0060
0.0040
0.0020
0.0000
0.00000
0.01000
0.02000
Deviasi Standar
0.03000
0.04000
Koefisien Korelasi -1
(Perfect Negative Correlation
p 2
dan:
= [{- w11 + (1- w1)2}2]1/2
Rp2 = [R2 +
(R1 -R2) 2
R1 - R2
]+[
1 + 2
1 + 2
(R1 -R2) 2
R1 - R2
] -[
1 + 2
1 + 2
] p1
] p2
]
(1 + 2)
(1 + 2)
( + )
Porsi (W1)
Porsi (W2)
p1 ( =-1)
p2 ( =-1)
Rp
0.00
1.00
-0.02310
0.02310
0.00134
0.10
0.90
-0.01785
0.01785
0.00228
0.20
0.80
-0.01260
0.01260
0.00322
0.30
0.70
-0.00735
0.00735
0.00415
0.40
0.60
-0.00209
0.00209
0.00509
0.50
0.50
0.00316
-0.00316
0.00603
0.60
0.40
0.00841
-0.00841
0.00697
0.70
0.30
0.01366
-0.01366
0.00791
0.80
0.20
0.01891
-0.01891
0.00884
0.90
0.10
0.02416
-0.02416
0.00978
1.00
0.00
0.02941
-0.02941
0.01072
R
0.0100
Expected Return
0.0080
Q
0.0060
0.0040
0.0020
0.0000
-0.04000
-0.03000
-0.02000
-0.01000
0.00000
Deviasi Standar
0.01000
0.02000
0.03000
0.04000
Expected Return
0.0100
0.0080
Q
0.0060
0.0040
0.0020
P
0.0000
-0.04000
-0.03000
-0.02000
-0.01000
0.00000
0.01000
Deviasi Standar
0.02000
0.03000
0.04000
0.00
1.00
0.02310
0.02310
0.02310
0.00134
0.10
0.90
0.01948
0.02100
0.02240
0.00228
0.20
0.80
0.01635
0.01939
0.02202
0.00322
0.30
0.70
0.01402
0.01842
0.02195
0.00415
0.40
0.60
0.01294
0.01818
0.02221
0.00509
0.50
0.50
0.01341
0.01870
0.02279
0.00603
0.60
0.40
0.01529
0.01992
0.02366
0.00697
0.70
0.30
0.01814
0.02172
0.02479
0.00791
0.80
0.20
0.02159
0.02398
0.02615
0.00884
0.90
0.10
0.02539
0.02657
0.02770
0.00978
1.00
0.00
0.02941
0.02941
0.02941
0.01072
R
0.0100
=1
Expected Retun
0.0080
Q
0.0060
=0,5
=0
=+1
=0,5
0.0040
=1
0.0020
P
0.0000
-0.04000
-0.03000
-0.02000
-0.01000
0.00000
Deviasi Standar
0.01000
0.02000
0.03000
0.04000
Harga Saham
No.
Tanggal
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
30-Dec-05
2-Jan-06
3-Jan-06
4-Jan-06
5-Jan-06
6-Jan-06
9-Jan-06
11-Jan-06
12-Jan-06
13-Jan-06
16-Jan-06
17-Jan-06
18-Jan-06
19-Jan-06
20-Jan-06
23-Jan-06
24-Jan-06
25-Jan-06
26-Jan-06
27-Jan-06
30-Jan-06
1-Feb-06
2-Feb-06
3-Feb-06
6-Feb-06
7-Feb-06
8-Feb-06
9-Feb-06
10-Feb-06
13-Feb-06
14-Feb-06
15-Feb-06
Rerata
Harga
Saham
ASGR
295
300
300
300
305
305
315
315
305
305
305
295
295
305
295
285
290
290
295
310
320
315
305
310
305
305
295
305
300
295
300
300
295
Harga
Saham
GJTL
560
570
590
590
580
590
640
650
630
630
610
570
560
600
590
570
570
570
620
620
630
630
680
670
660
670
690
710
710
690
660
670
670
Harga
Saham
KLBF
990
980
990
990
1,000
1,000
1,030
1,070
1,070
1,160
1,160
1,150
1,120
1,140
1,160
1,120
1,140
1,190
1,260
1,220
1,300
1,280
1,310
1,350
1,380
1,380
1,360
1,380
1,370
1,430
1,360
1,360
1,370
Harga
Saham
TLKM
5,900
6,100
6,150
6,200
6,050
6,050
6,150
6,550
6,400
6,200
6,150
6,150
6,050
6,300
6,200
6,100
6,050
6,300
6,150
6,250
6,300
6,400
6,350
6,350
6,350
6,350
6,100
6,200
6,150
6,100
5,950
6,100
6,100
Harga
Saham
UNTR
3,675
3,675
3,700
3,875
3,900
4,000
4,050
3,975
3,950
3,875
3,775
3,775
3,700
3,850
3,800
3,700
3,725
3,750
3,775
3,775
3,825
3,850
3,850
3,850
3,825
3,875
3,775
3,875
3,925
3,900
3,850
4,050
4,000
IHSG
1,163
1,172
1,185
1,212
1,211
1,222
1,245
1,261
1,256
1,250
1,235
1,213
1,193
1,230
1,223
1,200
1,207
1,230
1,227
1,230
1,232
1,241
1,243
1,244
1,246
1,259
1,238
1,247
1,253
1,252
1,230
1,237
1,238
Return Saham
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Tanggal
30-Dec-05
2-Jan-06
3-Jan-06
4-Jan-06
5-Jan-06
6-Jan-06
9-Jan-06
11-Jan-06
12-Jan-06
13-Jan-06
16-Jan-06
17-Jan-06
18-Jan-06
19-Jan-06
20-Jan-06
23-Jan-06
24-Jan-06
25-Jan-06
26-Jan-06
27-Jan-06
30-Jan-06
1-Feb-06
2-Feb-06
3-Feb-06
6-Feb-06
7-Feb-06
8-Feb-06
9-Feb-06
10-Feb-06
13-Feb-06
14-Feb-06
15-Feb-06
Rata-rata
Std. Deviasi
Varian
Return
Saham
ASGR
Return
Saham
GJTL
Return
Saham
KLBF
Return
Saham
TLKM
Return
Saham
UNTR
IHSG
0.01695
0.00000
0.00000
0.01667
0.00000
0.03279
0.00000
-0.03175
0.00000
0.00000
-0.03279
0.00000
0.03390
-0.03279
-0.03390
0.01754
0.00000
0.01724
0.05085
0.03226
-0.01563
-0.03175
0.01639
-0.01613
0.00000
-0.03279
0.03390
-0.01639
-0.01667
0.01695
0.00000
0.00080
0.02282
0.00052
0.01786
0.03509
0.00000
-0.01695
0.01724
0.08475
0.01563
-0.03077
0.00000
-0.03175
-0.06557
-0.01754
0.07143
-0.01667
-0.03390
0.00000
0.00000
0.08772
0.00000
0.01613
0.00000
0.07937
-0.01471
-0.01493
0.01515
0.02985
0.02899
0.00000
-0.02817
-0.04348
0.01515
0.00645
0.03634
0.00132
-0.01010
0.01020
0.00000
0.01010
0.00000
0.03000
0.03883
0.00000
0.08411
0.00000
-0.00862
-0.02609
0.01786
0.01754
-0.03448
0.01786
0.04386
0.05882
-0.03175
0.06557
-0.01538
0.02344
0.03053
0.02222
0.00000
-0.01449
0.01471
-0.00725
0.04380
-0.04895
0.00000
0.01072
0.02941
0.00086
0.03390
0.00820
0.00813
-0.02419
0.00000
0.01653
0.06504
-0.02290
-0.03125
-0.00806
0.00000
-0.01626
0.04132
-0.01587
-0.01613
-0.00820
0.04132
-0.02381
0.01626
0.00800
0.01587
-0.00781
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
-0.03937
0.01639
-0.00806
-0.00813
-0.02459
0.02521
0.00134
0.02310
0.00053
0.00000
0.00680
0.04730
0.00645
0.02564
0.01250
-0.01852
-0.00629
-0.01899
-0.02581
0.00000
-0.01987
0.04054
-0.01299
-0.02632
0.00676
0.00671
0.00667
0.00000
0.01325
0.00654
0.00000
0.00000
-0.00649
0.01307
-0.02581
0.02649
0.01290
-0.00637
-0.01282
0.05195
0.00333
0.01976
0.00039
0.00780
0.01108
0.02280
-0.00058
0.00929
0.01866
0.01303
-0.00399
-0.00464
-0.01213
-0.01812
-0.01622
0.03089
-0.00583
-0.01861
0.00591
0.01897
-0.00282
0.00249
0.00212
0.00680
0.00217
0.00059
0.00122
0.01101
-0.01683
0.00684
0.00519
-0.00056
-0.01759
0.00534
0.00207
0.01214
0.00015
Saham
ASGR
GJTL
KLBF
Expected
Return
0.00080
0.00645
0.01072
Standar
Deviasi
0.02282
0.03634
0.02941
ASGR
0.00052
Kovarians
GJTL
0.00029
0.00132
KLBF
0.00010
0.00040
0.00086
Matriks Kovarians
Saham
ASGR
GJTL
ASGR
0.00052
0.00029
GJTL
0.00029
0.00132
B
ASGR
0.30
C
GJTL
0.70
D
Total
1.00
E( r)
Porsi
E( Rp)
ASGR
0.00080
0.30
0.00024
GJTL
0.00645
0.70
0.00451
Total
0.00475
ASGR
GJTL
Wi
0.30
0.70
ASGR
0.30
0.00052
0.00029
GJTL
0.70
0.00029
0.00132
ASGR
0.00005
0.00006
0.00082
0.02859
GJTL
0.00006
0.00065
Data-Table Excel
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
B
Porsi ASGR
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
C
E (Rp)
0.00475
D
Varian
0.00082
E
Std. Deviasi
0.02859
B
Porsi ASGR
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
C
E (Rp)
0.00475
0.00080
0.00137
0.00193
0.00250
0.00306
0.00363
0.00419
0.00475
0.00532
0.00588
0.00645
D
Varian
0.00082
0.00052
0.00049
0.00048
0.00050
0.00054
0.00061
0.00070
0.00082
0.00096
0.00113
0.00132
E
Std. Deviasi
0.02859
0.02282
0.02209
0.02192
0.02231
0.02324
0.02465
0.02646
0.02859
0.03099
0.03358
0.03634
Expected Return
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.005
0.004
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
Deviasi Standar
0.030
0.035
0.040
p2 = wi2i2 + wiwjij
i=1
i=1 j=i+1
p2 = wi2i2 + wiwjiji
i=1
i=1 j=i+1
Saham 2
w 22
Saham 3
Saham n
w33
w nn
..
Saham 1
w 11
w 1212
w1w212
w1w313 ..
Saham 2
w 22
w2w121
w 2222
w2w323 .. w2wn2n
Saham 3
w 33
w3w131
w3w232
w 3232
.
.
.
Saham n
w nn
wnw1n1
wnw2n2
wnw3n3 ..
..
w1wn1n
w3wn3n
w n2n2
Saham 1 Saham 2
Saham 3
..
Saham n
w1wn1n
Saham 1
w1212
w1w212
w1w313
..
Saham 2
Saham 3
w2w121
w3w131
w 2 2 2 2
w3w232
w2w323
w3232 ..
.. w2wn2n
w3wn3n
.
.
.
Saham n wnw1n1
wnw2n2
wnw3n3
..
wn2n2
E ( r)
0.00080
0.00645
0.01072
Dev Std
0.02282
0.03634
0.02941
ASGR
0.00052
GJTL
0.00029
0.00132
KLBF
0.00010
0.00040
0.00086
ASGR
0.30
GJTL
0.50
KLBF
0.20
Total
1.00
ASGR
0.00080
0.30
0.00024
GJTL
0.00645
0.50
0.00322
KLBF
0.01072
0.20
0.00214
Total
1.00
0.005609
Wi
0.30
0.50
0.20
ASGR
0.30
0.00052
0.00029
0.00010
GJTL
0.50
0.00029
0.00132
0.00040
KLBF
0.20
0.00010
0.00040
0.00086
ASGR
0.00005
0.00004
0.00001
0.00059
0.02433
GJTL
0.00004
0.00033
0.00004
KLBF
0.00001
0.00004
0.00003
E (Rp)
0.00561
-0.00133
-0.00034
0.00065
0.00164
0.00263
0.00363
0.00462
0.00561
0.00660
0.00759
0.00858
0.00958
0.01057
0.01156
0.01255
0.01354
Varians
0.00059
0.00106
0.00092
0.00081
0.00072
0.00065
0.00061
0.00059
0.00059
0.00062
0.00067
0.00075
0.00084
0.00097
0.00111
0.00128
0.00147
0.00059
Dev Std
0.02433
0.03254
0.03036
0.02842
0.02678
0.02551
0.02465
0.02425
0.02433
0.02490
0.02590
0.02731
0.02906
0.03109
0.03335
0.03579
0.03839
0.02425
Expected Return
0.011
0.008
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.000
0.000
-0.002
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
Deviasi Standar
0.030
0.035
0.040
0.045
1.
wiRi -Rp= 0
i=1
Kendala (constraint) ini menyatakan bahwa total perkalian porsi dan expected
return masing-masing saham dalam portfolio sama dengan return portfolio.
n
2. wi - 1 = 0
i =1
Kendala ini menyatakan bahwa total porsi semua saham dalam portfolio sama
dengan satu.
i=1
i=1
212
222
232
.
.
.
2n2
R2
1
(M)
R1
R2
R3
.
.
.
Rn
0
0
1
1
1
.
.
.
1
0
0
w1
w2
w3
.
.
.
wn
1
2
(w)
0
0
0
=
.
.
.
0
Rp
1
(k)
+ bnRp
1 = an+1 + bn+1Rp
2 = an+2 + bn+2Rp
Expected
Return
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%
1.10%
1.20%
1.30%
1.40%
1.50%
1.60%
1.70%
1.80%
1.90%
Standar
Deviasi
0.021100
0.019090
0.018985
0.020815
0.024143
0.028448
0.033354
0.038633
0.044151
0.049829
0.055617
0.061485
0.067412
0.073384
0.079390
0.085423
0.091479
0.097552
0.103639
0.109739
Expected Return
0.50%
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
0.010
0.012
0.014
0.016
0.018
0.020
0.022
Deviasi Standar
0.024
0.026
0.028
0.030
E(Rp)
1
0.0000
0.0010
0.0020
0.0030
0.0040
0.0050
0.0060
0.0070
0.0080
0.0090
Varian
2
0.000445
0.000364
0.000360
0.000433
0.000583
0.000809
0.001112
0.001492
0.001949
0.002483
-0.0000808
-0.0000040
0.0000728
0.0001496
0.0002264
0.0003032
0.0003800
0.0004568
0.0005336
-0.08078
-0.00398
0.07282
0.14961
0.22641
0.30321
0.38000
0.45680
0.53359
0.076796
0.076796
0.076796
0.076796
0.076796
0.076796
0.076796
0.076796
1
7
0.119175
0.042378
-0.034418
-0.111214
-0.188011
-0.264807
-0.341603
-0.418400
-0.495196
-0.571993
Perubahan
1
8
-0.076796
-0.076796
-0.076796
-0.076796
-0.076796
-0.076796
-0.076796
-0.076796
-0.076796
2
9
-0.000890
-0.000771
-0.000652
-0.000533
-0.000414
-0.000295
-0.000175
-0.000056
0.000063
0.000182
Perubahan
2
10
0.000119
0.000119
0.000119
0.000119
0.000119
0.000119
0.000119
0.000119
0.000119
[1]
p2 = wi2i2 + wiwjijij
i=1
i=1 j=1, ji
p2 = wi2i2
i=1
p2 = (1/n)2i2
i=1
n
p2 = 1/n[ i2/n]
i=1
p2 = 1/ni2
p2 = (1/n)2i2 + (1/n)(1/n)ijij
i=1
i=1 j=1, ji
p2 = (1/n)2i2 + (1/n)2ijij
i=1 i=1 j=1, ji
[1] Elton, Edwin J. dan Gruber, Martin J. Modern Portfolio Theory And Investment
Analysis. 2nd Ed. Jhon Willey & Sons. New York: 1981, hlm. 30.
p2 = (1/n)2i2 + (1/n)2ijij
i=1
i=1 j=1, ji
i=1 j=i+1, ji
p2 = 1/ni2 + (n-1)/nij
p2 = 1/ni2 + (n-1)/nij
Dari di atas tampak bahwa bagian pertama dari varians portfolio
adalah rerata dari varians saham-saham, sedangkan bagian
kedua adalah rerata kovarians saham-saham dalam portfolio
tersebut. Semakin banyak jumlah saham yang kita masukkan ke
dalam portfolio, semakin kecil kontribusi varians saham terhadap
varians portfolio. Untuk n yang sangat besar, kontribusi varians
saham mendekati nol, sedangkan kontribusi kovarians akan
mendekati reratanya. Jadi, resiko individu saham dapat
dihilangkan dengan memperbanyak saham dalam portfolio, tetapi
kontribusi kovarians tidak dapat dihilangkan melalui diversifikasi.
p2 = 1/ni2 + (n-1)/nij
p2 = i2/n + nij/n ij/n
p2 = 1/n (i2 ij) + ij
Semakin banyak jumlah saham yang dimasukkan ke dalam
portfolio, semakin kecil nilai 1/n, sehingga pengaruh perbedaan
rerata varians dan kovarians semakin kecil. Jadi, varians portfolio
akan semakin kecil bila jumlah saham dalam portfolio sangat
semakin banyak
0.0025
Varian Portfolio
0.0020
0.0015
Unsystematic
Total Risk
0.0010
0.0005
Systematic Risk
0.0000
0
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Jumlah Saham
0.00025
Varians Portfolio
0.00020
0.00015
0.00010
0.00005
0.00000
2
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Jumlah Saham
0.013
0.012
0.011
0.010
0.009
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.005
0.004
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.000
2
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Jumlah Saham
0.002000
0.001500
0.001000
0.000500
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
0.000000
2
Varians Porfolio
0.002500
Jumlah Saham
Saham dipilih secara acak
BAB 3
Varian Tiga Dimensi
Total
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
O'
Porsi inve stasi
pada saham B
Wb
L
0,5
Q
0,4
M
1.0
0,6
0,2
0,4
K'
0,2
L'
N
0,1
M'
0,4
0,6
1.0
R
Wa
Porsi investa si
pa da sa ham A
N
L
M
Wa
P
Expected
Return Saham GJTL
U
0,64%
Wb
Expected
Return Sa ham TLKM
S
0,13%
Expected
Return Saham
T
0,08%
Q
Wa
A
Ta bel A
B
C
D
Expected Return da n De via si Sta ndar
Saham
E ( r)
Std Dev
ASGR
0.00080
0.02282
GJTL
0.00645
0.03634
TLKM
0.00134
0.02310
Ta bel B
Ta bel C
Ta bel D
Porsi Saha m
ASGR
0.00
TLKM
0.00020
0.00022
0.00053
GJTL
-5.00
TLKM
6.00
E (Rp)
-0.02421
ASGR
0.00080
0.00000
0.00000
GJTL
0.00645
-5.00000
-0.03224
TLKM
0.00134
6.00000
0.00804
Total
-0.02421
Ta be l Kova ria ns
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
Ta bel F
GJTL
0.00029
0.00132
0.00022
Expected Return
E( r)
Porsi
E( Rp)
Ta bel E
0.00
(5.00)
6.00
ASGR
0.00
0.00052
0.00029
0.00020
GJTL
(5.00)
0.00029
0.00132
0.00022
GJTL
0.00000
0.03301
(0.00664)
TLKM
0.00000
(0.00664)
0.01921
Ta be l Va rians
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
Total Var
Std Dev
ASGR
0.00000
0.00000
0.00000
0.03893
0.19732
TLKM
6.00
0.00020
0.00022
0.00053
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
M
ASGR
5.00
4.90
4.80
4.70
4.60
4.50
4.40
4.30
4.20
4.10
4.00
3.90
3.80
3.70
3.60
3.50
3.40
3.30
3.20
3.10
3.00
2.90
2.80
2.70
2.60
2.50
2.40
2.30
2.20
2.10
2.00
1.90
1.80
1.70
1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
(0.10)
(0.20)
(0.30)
(0.40)
(0.50)
(0.60)
(0.70)
(0.80)
(0.90)
(1.00)
(1.10)
(1.20)
(1.30)
(1.40)
(1.50)
(1.60)
(1.70)
(1.80)
(1.90)
(2.00)
(2.10)
(2.20)
(2.30)
(2.40)
(2.50)
(2.60)
(2.70)
(2.80)
(2.90)
(3.00)
(3.10)
(3.20)
(3.30)
(3.40)
(3.50)
(3.60)
(3.70)
(3.80)
(3.90)
(4.00)
(4.10)
(4.20)
(4.30)
(4.40)
(4.50)
(4.60)
(4.70)
(4.80)
(4.90)
(5.00)
N
E (Rp)
(0.02421)
(0.02689)
(0.02684)
(0.02679)
(0.02673)
(0.02668)
(0.02662)
(0.02657)
(0.02652)
(0.02646)
(0.02641)
(0.02636)
(0.02630)
(0.02625)
(0.02619)
(0.02614)
(0.02609)
(0.02603)
(0.02598)
(0.02593)
(0.02587)
(0.02582)
(0.02576)
(0.02571)
(0.02566)
(0.02560)
(0.02555)
(0.02550)
(0.02544)
(0.02539)
(0.02533)
(0.02528)
(0.02523)
(0.02517)
(0.02512)
(0.02507)
(0.02501)
(0.02496)
(0.02490)
(0.02485)
(0.02480)
(0.02474)
(0.02469)
(0.02464)
(0.02458)
(0.02453)
(0.02447)
(0.02442)
(0.02437)
(0.02431)
(0.02426)
(0.02421)
(0.02415)
(0.02410)
(0.02404)
(0.02399)
(0.02394)
(0.02388)
(0.02383)
(0.02378)
(0.02372)
(0.02367)
(0.02361)
(0.02356)
(0.02351)
(0.02345)
(0.02340)
(0.02335)
(0.02329)
(0.02324)
(0.02318)
(0.02313)
(0.02308)
(0.02302)
(0.02297)
(0.02292)
(0.02286)
(0.02281)
(0.02275)
(0.02270)
(0.02265)
(0.02259)
(0.02254)
(0.02249)
(0.02243)
(0.02238)
(0.02232)
(0.02227)
(0.02222)
(0.02216)
(0.02211)
(0.02206)
(0.02200)
(0.02195)
(0.02189)
(0.02184)
(0.02179)
(0.02173)
(0.02168)
(0.02163)
(0.02157)
(0.02152)
O
Varians
0.03893
0.03159
0.03141
0.03125
0.03110
0.03096
0.03084
0.03073
0.03063
0.03054
0.03047
0.03042
0.03037
0.03034
0.03032
0.03032
0.03032
0.03035
0.03038
0.03043
0.03049
0.03056
0.03065
0.03075
0.03087
0.03099
0.03113
0.03129
0.03145
0.03163
0.03183
0.03203
0.03225
0.03248
0.03273
0.03299
0.03326
0.03355
0.03385
0.03416
0.03448
0.03482
0.03517
0.03554
0.03592
0.03631
0.03671
0.03713
0.03756
0.03801
0.03846
0.03893
0.03942
0.03991
0.04042
0.04095
0.04148
0.04203
0.04260
0.04317
0.04376
0.04437
0.04498
0.04561
0.04625
0.04691
0.04758
0.04826
0.04895
0.04966
0.05038
0.05112
0.05187
0.05263
0.05340
0.05419
0.05499
0.05581
0.05663
0.05747
0.05833
0.05919
0.06007
0.06097
0.06187
0.06279
0.06373
0.06467
0.06563
0.06661
0.06759
0.06859
0.06960
0.07063
0.07167
0.07272
0.07378
0.07486
0.07595
0.07706
0.07818
0.07931
P
Dev Std
0.19732
0.17773
0.17724
0.17677
0.17635
0.17596
0.17561
0.17529
0.17501
0.17477
0.17457
0.17440
0.17427
0.17418
0.17413
0.17412
0.17414
0.17420
0.17430
0.17444
0.17461
0.17482
0.17507
0.17536
0.17569
0.17605
0.17644
0.17688
0.17735
0.17786
0.17840
0.17898
0.17959
0.18023
0.18092
0.18163
0.18238
0.18316
0.18397
0.18482
0.18570
0.18661
0.18755
0.18852
0.18952
0.19055
0.19161
0.19269
0.19381
0.19495
0.19612
0.19732
0.19854
0.19979
0.20106
0.20236
0.20368
0.20502
0.20639
0.20778
0.20920
0.21063
0.21209
0.21357
0.21507
0.21658
0.21812
0.21968
0.22126
0.22285
0.22447
0.22610
0.22774
0.22941
0.23109
0.23279
0.23450
0.23623
0.23798
0.23974
0.24151
0.24330
0.24510
0.24692
0.24875
0.25059
0.25244
0.25431
0.25619
0.25808
0.25998
0.26190
0.26382
0.26576
0.26771
0.26966
0.27163
0.27361
0.27560
0.27759
0.27960
0.28162
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
..
..
..
..
99
100
101
B
1
0.03159
0.03141
0.03125
0.03110
0.03096
0.03084
0.03073
0.03063
0.07706
0.07818
0.07931
C
2
0.03054
0.03035
0.03018
0.03002
0.02988
0.02975
0.02963
0.02952
0.07521
0.07632
0.07744
D
3
0.02952
0.02933
0.02915
0.02898
0.02882
0.02868
0.02856
0.02844
0.07338
0.07448
0.07560
CX
101
0.06633
0.06534
0.06435
0.06338
0.06242
0.06148
0.06055
0.05963
0.03147
0.03177
0.03208
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
0.080
71
0.070
76
0.060
81
0.050
86
0.040
0.030
0.020
0.010
0.000
91
96
101
0.070
0.060
0.050
0.040
0.030
0.020
0.010
0.000
Iso-Variance Ellipses
p2 = w1212 + w2222 + w3232 + 2w1w212 + 2w1w313 + 2w2w323
Karena porsi saham adalah w1+w2+w3 = 1, maka w3 dinyatakan
sebagai (1-w1-w2). Bila kita substitusikan (1-w1-w2) ke dalam
persamaan varians di atas akan diperoleh:
p2 = (22 + 32 223)w22 + [(232 + 212 213 223)w1 + 223
232)]w2 + [(12 + 32 213 )w12 + (213 232)w1 + 32)]
Persamaan di atas dapat dinyatakan sebagai:
p2 = aw22 + bw2 + k.
Varians
0.000360
0.000433
0.000583
0.000809
0.001112
A
Saham
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
Covarian Matrix
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
W1
B
E ( r)
0.000802
0.006449
0.001340
C
Std Dev
0.022822
0.036336
0.023098
ASGR
0.000521
0.000295
0.000197
GJTL
0.000295
0.001320
0.000221
(2 )
20
21
22
23
(3 )
-2Cov(2,3)
Total
24
0.00053
25
2W 1(3 )
2W 1Cov(1,2)
26
-2W 1Cov(1,3)
(0.00020)
27
28
29
-2(W 1)Cov(2,3)
2cov(2,3)
-2(3)2
(0.00022)
0.00044
(0.00107)
30
31
Total
(0.00021) W 2
32
(W 1)2(1 )
0.000360
0.00132
2
2
34
(W 1) (3 )
-2(W 1)2Cov(1,3)2
35
2W 1Cov(1,3)
37
38
39
TLKM
0.000197
0.000221
0.000534
2
p
2
19
36
0.50
18
33
-2W 1(3)
(3)2
Total
0.00053
(0.00044)
0.00141 (W 2)2
0.00029
(W 2)2
(W 2)
0.00141
(0.00021)
0.00000
0.00013
W 2.1
W 2.2
0.00013
0.14
0.01
0.00020
W1
W2
W3
Total
(0.00053)
0.50
0.14
0.36
1.00
0.50
0.01
0.49
1.00
(0.00010)
0.00053
0.00036 k
Saham
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
E ( r)
0.000802
0.006449
0.001340
Matriks Covarian
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
Std Dev
0.022822
0.036336
0.023098
ASGR
0.000521
0.000295
0.000197
GJTL
0.000295
0.001320
0.000221
TLKM
0.000197
0.000221
0.000534
(W2)2
2
0.00132
(3)
-2Cov(2,3)
Total
0.00053
(0.00044)
0.00141
2W 1(3)2
2W 1Cov(1,2)
-2W 1Cov(1,3)
(W2)
0.00107 W 1
0.00059 W 1
-2(W 1)Cov(2,3)
2cov(2,3)
(0.00039) W 1
(0.00044) W 1
(2)
-2(3)
0.00044
Total
(0.00107)
(W 1) (1)
-2(W 1) Cov(1,3)
0.00052 (W 1)
2
0.00053 (W 1)
2W 1Cov(1,3)
(0.00039) (W 1)
-2W 1(3)2
0.00039 W 1
(0.00107) W 1
0.00053
(3)
Total
(W2)
0.00141
0.00082
(0.00062)
(W 1) (3)2
(W2)2
k
W1
0.00066 (W 1)
(0.00067) W 1
0.00053
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
K
W1
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.48
0.49
0.50
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.56
0.57
0.58
0.59
0.60
0.61
L
W 2. 1
0.14
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
0.144
0.156
0.162
0.166
0.169
0.170
0.171
0.171
0.170
0.169
0.167
0.164
0.161
0.158
0.154
0.149
0.144
0.138
0.132
0.124
0.116
0.106
0.093
0.073
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
M
W 2. 2
0.01
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
0.10
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.04
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
#NUM!
(0.40)
(0.20)
0.00
0.00
(0.10)
(0.20)
(0.30)
(0.40)
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
H
G
w2
R
w1
M
I
C
A
P
N
Iso-expected
return line
Critical line
2.
3.
Expected Return
0.50%
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
0.010
0.012
0.014
0.016
0.018
0.020
0.022
Deviasi Standar
0.024
0.026
0.028
0.030
(R1 - R3)
+
(R3 -R2)
a
w1
(R3 -R2)
b
ASGR
0.00080
0.02282
GJTL
0.00645
0.03634
TLKM
0.00134
0.02310
2
i
0.00052
0.00132
0.00053
Kovarians
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
ASGR
0.00052
0.00029
0.00020
GJTL
0.00029
0.00132
0.00022
TLKM
0.00020
0.00022
0.00053
E(R)
a
b
E(Rp)
0.30%
0.32497
0.10521
E(Rp)
w1
0.50
0.30%
w2
0.38
w3
0.12
Expected Return
Portfolio
0,20%
0,30%
0,40%
0,50%
0,60%
Persamaan
Iso-Expected Return Line
w2 = 0,12924 + 0,10521 w1
w2 = 0,32497 + 0,10521 w1
w2 = 0,52070 + 0,10521 w1
w2 = 0,71643 + 0,10521 w1
w2 = 0,91216 + 0,10521 w1
w2
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
E(Rp) = 0,60%
Var =0,001112
1.00
0.90
E(Rp) = 0,50%
Var =0,000809
0.80
0.70
E(Rp) = 0,40%
Var =0,000583
0.60
0.50
E(Rp) = 0,30%
Var =0,000433
0.40
0.30
E(Rp) = 0,20%
Var =0,000360
0.20
0.10
(1.00)
(0.80)
(0.60)
(0.40)
0.00
(0.20)
(0.10)0.00
w1
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
(0.20)
(0.30)
(0.40)
(0.50)
(0.60)
Iso-variance ellipse
(0.70)
(0.80)
(0.90)
(1.00)
(1.10)
(1.20)
(1.30)
(1.40)
Critical line
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
E(Rp)
w1
w2
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
-1.23
-3.09
-4.95
-6.81
-8.67
0.13
0.32
0.52
0.72
0.91
Expected
Return Saham GJTL
U
0,64%
Wb
Expected
Return Saham TLKM
S
0,13%
Expected
Return Saham
T
0,08%
Q
Wa
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.66
0.60
0.40
0.20
(1.00)
(0.80)
(0.60)
(0.40)
0.00
(0.20) P 0.00
(0.20)
(0.40)
(0.60)
(0.80)
(1.00)
(1.20)
(1.40)
(1.60)
Q
A
0.20
0,53 0.60
0.40
w1
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
Expected Return
0.60%
0.40%
0.20%
A
0.00%
0.010
0.012
0.014
0.016
0.018
0.020
0.022
Deviasi Standar
0.024
0.026
0.028
0.030
w1
0.39
0.25
0.10
-0.04
-0.18
w2
0.17
0.35
0.53
0.71
0.89
Jika kita ambil titik nomor 1 dan nomor 5, dapat dibuat persamaan
garis lurus (critical line) dengan cara berikut
y y2
x x2
=
y1 y2
x1 x2
y 0,89
x (-0,18)
=
0,17 0,89
0,39 (-0,18)
y 0,52
x 0,18
=
0,72
0,57
ASGR
0.000802
0.53
0.000421
GJTL
0.006449
0
0.000000
TLKM
0.001340
0.47
0.000636
Total
0.001057
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
Varian
Std. Deviasi
GJTL
Porsi
0.53
0.00
0.47
0.53
0.00052
0.00029
0.00020
0.00
0.00029
0.00132
0.00022
ASGR
0.000144
0.000000
0.000049
0.000362
0.019029
GJTL
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
TLKM
0.000049
0.000000
0.000120
GJTL
0.006449
0.66
0.004268
TLKM
0.001340
0.34
0.000453
TLKM
0.47
0.00020
0.00022
0.00053
Total
0.004721
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
Varian
Std. Deviasi
GJTL
Porsi
0.00
0.66
0.34
0.00
0.00052
0.00029
0.00020
0.66
0.00029
0.00132
0.00022
ASGR
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000738
0.027172
GJTL
0.000000
0.000578
0.000050
TLKM
0.000000
0.000050
0.000061
TLKM
0.34
0.00020
0.00022
0.00053
(W2)2
0.00141
0.00141
w2^2
(W2)
0.00082
-0.00062
W1
w1
0.00082
k
-0.00062
k
0.00066
-0.00067
0.00053
(W1)2
W1
w1^2
0.00066
w1
-0.00067
w2
dp2/dw1
w2
0.00082
w1
0.00132
-0.00067
dp2/dw2
0.00282
0.00082
-0.00062
0.00082
0.00082
0.00000
0.00132
0.00024
0.00108
-0.00067
-0.00018 Kurangi
-0.00049
w1
w2
w3
Jumlah
0.45
0.09
0.46
1.00
Pengali
0.29044
k
0.00053
TLKM
0.00134
0.46
0.00061
Total
GJTL
0.09
0.00029
0.00132
0.00022
TLKM
0.46
0.00020
0.00022
0.00053
0.00155
Varian Minimum
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
Varian
Std. Deviasi
Porsi
0.45
0.09
0.46
ASGR
0.45
0.00052
0.00029
0.00020
ASGR
GJTL
TLKM
0.0001074 0.0000119 0.0000408
0.0000119 0.0000105 0.0000090
0.0000408 0.0000090 0.0001112
0.00035
0.01878
BAB 4
Single Indeks Model
Ri = ai + i Rm
Formula di atas membagi return saham atas dua
komponen, yaitu bagian yang berkaitan dengan pasar
dan bagian yang independent terhadap pasar. Beta
(i) mengukur sensitivitas return saham terhadap
return pasar. i = 2 berarti return saham suatu
perusahaan akan meningkat 2% bila return pasar
naik 1% dan akan turun dengan persentase yang
sama bila return pasar menurun 1%. i = 0,5
mengindikasikan bahwa return suatu saham akan
meningkat atau turun 0,5% bila return pasar naik 1%.
Return indeks pasar secara konsep identik dengan return saham, yaitu return
yang akan diterima oleh investor, bila komposisi saham dalam portfolionya
sama dengan komposisi saham di pasar keseluruhan. Dalam perhitungan
return index pasar, deviden digabungkan dengan perubahan harga index
tersebut[1].
Komponen ai merupakan bagian dari return saham perusahaan yang
disumbangkan ke dalam return pasar. Dalam suatu data time series, nilai ai
dapat dibagi atas dua bagian, yaitu rerata atau expected value ai dan ei yaitu
penyimpangan (random error) dari ai, di mana ei mempunyai nilai rerata atau
expected value yang sama dengan nol, sehingga ai dan Ri dapat dinyatakan
sebagai berikut:
ai = i + ei
Ri = i + i Rm + ei
[1] Edwin J. Elton dan Martin J. Gruber, Modern Portfolio Theory And Investment Analysis, 2nd Edition, Jhon
Willey & Sons, New York, 1981, hal. 98.
Ri = i + i Rm + ei
2.
E(ei) = 0
3.
4.
E(eieRm) = 0
=1....n,
tetapi i j
untuk semua saham i = 1........n
Varians Saham
Untuk menentukan varians return saham, substitusikan
Ri danRi kedalam formula varians sebagai berikut:
i2 = E(Ri Ri)2
= E[(i + i Rm + ei) (i + iRm)]2
= E(i + i Rm + ei i - iRm)2
= E(i(Rm -Rm) + ei)2
= E[(i2(Rm -Rm)2 + 2(i(Rm -Rm) ei + ei2)]
= i2E(Rm -Rm)2 + 2iE(Rm -Rm)E(ei) + E(ei2)
= i2E(Rm -Rm)2 + E(ei2) ; karena E(ei) = 0
maka
i2 = i2m2 + ei2
i2 = i2m2 + ei2
Varians saham sebagai ukuran terhadap resiko
terdiri dari systematic dan unsystematic risk.
Jadi, i2m2 adalah systematic risk dan ei2 adalah
unsystematic risk yang melekat pada return
saham.
Ri
e1
e2
B
Rm
i =Ri - Rm
Return
S aham
TLKM
(Ri)
0.033898
0.008197
0.008130
-0.024194
0.000000
0.016529
0.065041
-0.022901
-0.031250
-0.008065
0.000000
-0.016260
0.041322
-0.015873
-0.016129
-0.008197
0.041322
-0.023810
0.016260
0.008000
0.003601
Return
IHS G
(Rm)
0.007805
0.011079
0.022798
-0.000577
0.009289
0.018658
0.013035
-0.003988
-0.004637
-0.012133
-0.018123
-0.016221
0.030894
-0.005830
-0.018612
0.005910
0.018967
-0.002816
0.002491
0.002124
0.003006
n
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
(y)
0.003601
(0.000679)
0.005298
0.005121
(0.002898)
0.002488
0.000764
0.003083
0.003307
(0.000327)
0.007672
0.001256
0.028688
0.002391
Rm
(x)
0.003006
(0.000034)
0.003505
0.005704
(0.004269)
(0.000486)
0.001536
0.002911
0.003358
0.001826
0.003808
0.002653
0.023518
0.001960
RiRm
xy
0.000011
0.000000
0.000019
0.000029
0.000012
(0.000001)
0.000001
0.000009
0.000011
(0.000001)
0.000029
0.000003
0.000123
Rm2
x2
0.000009
0.000000
0.000012
0.000033
0.000018
0.000000
0.000002
0.000008
0.000011
0.000003
0.000015
0.000007
0.000119
RiRm nRiRm
Rm2 nRm2
=
=
0,000123 12(0,002391)(0,001960)
(0,000119)2 12(0,001960)2
0,91
i =Ri - Rm
= 0,002391 (0,91)(0,001960)
= 0,00060
Rm
0.003006
(0.000034)
0.003505
0.005704
(0.004269)
(0.000486)
0.001536
0.002911
0.003358
0.001826
0.003808
0.002653
Ri
0.003344
0.000572
0.003800
0.005805
(0.003290)
0.000160
0.002005
0.003258
0.003666
0.002268
0.004076
0.003023
0.008
0.006
0.004
Ri
0.002
(0.006)
(0.004)
(0.002)
0.000
0.000
0.002
(0.002)
(0.004)
0.004
Rm
0.006
Menghitung ei
Bulan
Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nop
Des
Total
Rerata
Return
Saham
TLKM
Ri
0.00360
(0.00068)
0.00530
0.00512
(0.00290)
0.00249
0.00076
0.00308
0.00331
(0.00033)
0.00767
0.00126
0.02869
0.00239
Return
Pasar
IHSG
(Rm)
0.00301
(0.00003)
0.00350
0.00570
(0.00427)
(0.00049)
0.00154
0.00291
0.00336
0.00183
0.00381
0.00265
0.02352
0.00196
Ri
0.00360
(0.00068)
0.00530
0.00512
(0.00290)
0.00249
0.00076
0.00308
0.00331
(0.00033)
0.00767
0.00126
0.02869
0.00239
i
0.00060
0.00060
0.00060
0.00060
0.00060
0.00060
0.00060
0.00060
0.00060
0.00060
0.00060
0.00060
0.00060
0.00724
0.00060
Rm
0.91
0.00274
(0.00003)
0.00320
0.00520
(0.00389)
(0.00044)
0.00140
0.00266
0.00306
0.00167
0.00347
0.00242
ei
0.00026
(0.00125)
0.00150
(0.00068)
0.00039
0.00233
(0.00124)
(0.00018)
(0.00036)
(0.00260)
0.00360
(0.00177)
0.00000
0.00000
Varians ei
Varian
Pasar
TLKM
(i2)
0.0000015
0.0000094
0.0000085
0.0000075
0.0000280
0.0000000
0.0000026
0.0000005
0.0000008
0.0000074
0.0000279
0.0000013
0.0000079
Varian
Pasar
IHSG
(m2)
0.0000011
0.0000040
0.0000024
0.0000140
0.0000388
0.0000060
0.0000002
0.0000009
0.0000020
0.0000000
0.0000034
0.0000005
0.0000061
Varian
(e i 2 )
0.0000001
0.0000016
0.0000022
0.0000005
0.0000002
0.0000054
0.0000015
0.0000000
0.0000001
0.0000067
0.0000129
0.0000031
0.0000029
Elton, Edwin J. dan Gruber, Martin J. Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis, 2nd
a
-0.00020
0.00064
-0.00139
-0.00096
-0.00080
-0.00252
-0.00026
-0.00347
-0.00107
-0.00086
0.00117
-0.00231
-0.00100
i
1.27
0.78
1.12
1.04
1.20
1.41
0.83
1.78
1.30
0.29
1.71
1.34
1.17
( i - )2
0.00878
0.15746
0.00233
0.01821
0.00090
0.05491
0.12008
0.37226
0.01754
0.77752
0.28699
0.02958
0.15388
[1] Elton, Edwin J. dan Gruber, Martin J. Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment
Analysis. 2nd Edition. John Willey & Sons. New York: 1987, hlm 109.
p2 = 0,343 + 0,677p1
p1 = adalah beta saham pada awal periode 1948-1954
p2 = adalah beta saham pada awal periode 1955-1961
Koefisien
Korelasi
0.60
0.73
0.84
0.88
0.92
0.97
0.97
0.98
Koefisien
Determinasi
0.36
0.53
0.71
0.77
0.85
0.94
0.94
0.96
Beta
Periode
Juni 1954
Juli 1961
0.39
0.61
0.81
0.99
1.14
1.34
Beta
Periode
Juni 1961
Juli 1968
0.62
0.71
0.86
0.91
1.00
1.17
Beta
Akhir
Periode
(bi2)
0.41
0.48
0.55
0.61
0.68
0.75
0.82
0.88
0.95
1.02
1.09
1.16
1.22
1.29
1.36
1.43
1.49
1.56
1.63
1.70
1.76
Saham
ASGR
ASII
BLTA
CMNP
DUTI
DYNA
GGRM
GJTL
HERO
INCO
INDF
INKP
INTP
ISAT
JIHD
KLBF
MDRN
MEDC
MLPL
PNBN
RALS
SMCB
SMGR
TCID
TINS
TKIM
TLKM
TSPC
ULTJ
UNTR
Rata-rata
Standar Deviasi
Periode 1 Periode 2 Periode 1 Periode 2 Kovarians
1.48
0.92
1.08
0.55
-0.095
1.72
1.33
0.80
0.47
-0.089
0.63
0.63
0.56
0.91
-0.045
0.87
0.66
0.57
0.72
-0.083
0.74
0.70
0.94
0.74
0.161
1.04
0.38
0.77
0.53
0.029
1.20
0.78
0.55
0.38
0.001
1.39
1.17
0.82
0.70
-0.006
0.75
0.14
0.70
0.61
-0.026
0.51
0.74
0.78
1.16
-0.247
1.17
1.03
0.59
0.59
-0.109
1.21
1.14
1.07
0.75
0.122
0.82
1.26
0.92
0.66
-0.069
1.02
1.13
0.47
0.47
0.036
1.07
1.29
1.00
0.89
-0.107
1.23
1.08
0.79
0.60
0.116
1.16
0.21
0.91
1.37
0.173
1.08
0.90
1.06
0.71
-0.036
1.57
1.03
1.23
0.77
0.025
1.31
1.10
1.08
0.57
0.082
0.91
0.71
0.61
0.98
-0.084
1.01
1.14
0.87
0.76
-0.131
0.94
0.61
0.69
0.50
0.009
0.13
0.29
0.90
0.45
0.026
0.99
0.92
0.67
0.74
0.021
1.12
1.10
1.03
0.69
0.135
1.60
1.45
0.60
0.59
0.003
0.83
0.54
0.58
0.61
0.064
0.50
0.28
0.81
0.77
-0.001
1.32
1.39
0.84
0.58
-0.025
Koefisien
Korelasi Determinasi
-0.1595
0.0254
-0.2374
0.0563
-0.0882
0.0078
-0.2029
0.0412
0.2300
0.0529
0.0719
0.0052
0.0034
0.0000
-0.0113
0.0001
-0.0603
0.0036
-0.2731
0.0746
-0.3132
0.0981
0.1530
0.0234
-0.1146
0.0131
0.1634
0.0267
-0.1200
0.0144
0.2430
0.0591
0.1383
0.0191
-0.0476
0.0023
0.0266
0.0007
0.1342
0.0180
-0.1408
0.0198
-0.1961
0.0385
0.0261
0.0007
0.0660
0.0044
0.0427
0.0018
0.1886
0.0356
0.0084
0.0001
0.1777
0.0316
-0.0023
0.0000
-0.0507
0.0026
Saham
ASGR
ASII
BLTA
CMNP
DUTI
DYNA
GGRM
GJTL
HERO
INCO
INDF
INKP
INTP
ISAT
JIHD
KLBF
MDRN
MEDC
MLPL
PNBN
RALS
SMCB
SMGR
TCID
TINS
TKIM
TLKM
TSPC
ULTJ
UNTR
a
1.771
2.252
0.661
0.974
0.539
0.998
1.197
1.408
0.765
0.641
1.490
0.962
1.026
0.829
1.247
0.884
1.142
1.146
1.531
1.022
0.976
1.262
0.922
0.089
0.954
0.807
1.583
0.737
0.500
1.417
b
-0.314
-0.400
-0.055
-0.161
0.292
0.105
0.005
-0.013
-0.069
-0.183
-0.316
0.220
-0.160
0.165
-0.136
0.323
0.092
-0.071
0.042
0.257
-0.088
-0.223
0.036
0.132
0.039
0.281
0.009
0.170
-0.002
-0.073
a
2.186
1.288
1.125
0.934
1.003
1.113
0.109
0.111
0.114
0.111
0.104
0.091
0.075
0.073
0.072
0.080
0.070
0.072
0.066
0.065
0.069
0.068
0.062
0.063
0.063
0.055
0.054
0.053
0.050
b
-0.519
-0.013
0.055
0.180
0.099
-0.022
1.246
1.312
1.231
1.210
1.191
1.134
1.123
1.091
1.091
1.140
1.150
1.168
1.171
1.173
1.148
1.158
1.152
1.144
1.135
1.139
1.147
1.152
1.143
Koefisien
Koefisien
Korelasi
Determinasi
-27.71%
7.68%
-1.03%
0.01%
4.67%
0.22%
14.27%
2.04%
7.42%
0.55%
-1.79%
0.03%
7.24%
0.52%
-1.55%
0.02%
-1.57%
0.02%
-5.85%
0.34%
-2.23%
0.05%
-4.44%
0.20%
-7.86%
0.62%
-2.12%
0.04%
-0.08%
0.00%
4.92%
0.24%
3.24%
0.11%
7.55%
0.57%
7.41%
0.55%
5.96%
0.36%
3.77%
0.14%
-0.86%
0.01%
0.62%
0.00%
-2.78%
0.08%
0.63%
0.00%
1.72%
0.03%
1.72%
0.03%
3.46%
0.12%
5.15%
0.27%
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2 3
5 6
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
-0.50
-1.00
Koefisien Beta
p1
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
p2
0.31
0.43
0.54
0.66
0.77
0.89
1.01
1.12
1.24
1.36
1.47
1.59
1.70
1.82
1.94
2.05
2.17
2.29
2.40
2.52
Saham
ASGR
ASII
BLTA
CMNP
DUTI
DYNA
GGRM
GJTL
HERO
INCO
INDF
INKP
INTP
ISAT
JIHD
KLBF
MDRN
MEDC
MLPL
PNBN
RALS
SMCB
SMGR
TCID
TINS
TKIM
TLKM
TSPC
ULTJ
UNTR
a
-0.00046
-0.00042
-0.00033
0.00012
0.00019
0.00010
0.00014
0.00018
0.00005
0.00009
0.00017
0.00009
0.00009
0.00014
0.00011
0.00008
0.00011
0.00004
0.00024
0.00008
0.00002
-0.00002
0.00002
-0.00001
0.00016
0.00008
0.00049
0.00005
0.00006
0.00007
b
0.00060
0.00065
0.00147
0.00032
0.00021
0.00008
0.00009
0.00023
0.00020
0.00011
0.00012
0.00019
0.00016
0.00013
0.00023
0.00024
0.00022
0.00019
0.00006
0.00023
0.00026
0.00033
0.00027
0.00010
0.00017
0.00023
-0.00010
0.00024
0.00018
0.00031
Koefisien
Koefisien
Korelasi
Determinasi
34.70%
12.04%
29.79%
8.88%
35.18%
12.38%
31.28%
9.78%
20.72%
4.29%
13.98%
1.95%
11.39%
1.30%
27.31%
7.46%
49.79%
24.79%
29.84%
8.90%
14.93%
2.23%
36.60%
13.39%
31.96%
10.21%
14.62%
2.14%
30.87%
9.53%
33.63%
11.31%
37.39%
13.98%
34.53%
11.92%
12.19%
1.49%
30.01%
9.01%
42.83%
18.35%
42.56%
18.11%
39.19%
15.36%
14.32%
2.05%
29.29%
8.58%
36.06%
13.00%
-10.71%
1.15%
39.60%
15.68%
44.41%
19.72%
33.70%
11.36%
Saham
ASGR
ASII
BLTA
CMNP
DUTI
DYNA
GGRM
GJTL
HERO
INCO
INDF
INKP
INTP
ISAT
JIHD
KLBF
MDRN
MEDC
MLPL
PNBN
RALS
SMCB
SMGR
TCID
TINS
TKIM
TLKM
TSPC
ULTJ
UNTR
a
0.00013
-0.00031
0.00030
0.00003
-0.00011
-0.00002
-0.00005
0.00016
0.00008
-0.00001
0.00002
0.00007
0.00006
0.00001
0.00008
0.00010
-0.00002
0.00000
0.00016
-0.00004
-0.00001
0.00014
0.00000
0.00005
0.00013
0.00002
-0.00001
0.00006
0.00009
0.00022
b
0.51659
3.25463
1.07168
1.24924
1.66337
0.64057
1.03919
1.17621
0.23151
0.63626
1.07019
0.89796
0.72479
0.99992
1.14150
0.96692
1.03387
0.87701
0.59986
1.51114
0.88943
0.75865
0.83156
-0.14468
0.73151
1.17592
1.33507
0.57096
0.16105
0.98167
Koefisien
Koefisien
Korelasi
Determinasi
12.32%
1.52%
82.14%
67.46%
12.75%
1.63%
70.75%
50.05%
72.21%
52.14%
60.52%
36.63%
91.04%
82.88%
69.10%
47.75%
29.19%
8.52%
64.12%
41.11%
80.87%
65.40%
70.86%
50.21%
66.64%
44.41%
90.29%
81.53%
60.47%
36.57%
71.97%
51.80%
52.37%
27.42%
65.48%
42.88%
41.96%
17.60%
84.53%
71.45%
67.11%
45.04%
44.31%
19.63%
73.38%
53.84%
-10.57%
1.12%
67.24%
45.21%
78.53%
61.67%
93.18%
86.82%
58.53%
34.26%
18.17%
3.30%
55.81%
31.15%
Dalam single index model dikatakan bahwa satusatunya faktor yang mempengaruhi return saham adalah
return pasar. Oleh karena itu, penggunaan single index
model dalam manajemen portfolio saham-saham di BEI
perlu dikembangkan menjadi multi index model seperti
pada Arbitrage Pricing Model (APT). Pertanyaan yang
muncul dalam hal ini adalah faktor apa saja yang
mempengaruhi return saham tersebut? Untuk itu, perlu
studi yang lebih dalam terhadap berbagai variabel yang
diduga memengaruhi return saham dan pengumpulan
data yang cukup untuk melakukan pengujian tersebut.
BAB 5
Short Selling
Short Selling
Bursa Efek Indonesia mendefinisikan short selling sebagai
transaksi penjualan efek dimana efek dimaksud tidak dimiliki
oleh penjual pada saat transaksi dilaksanakan.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
mendefinisikan short selling sebagai berikut[1].
..the sale of a security that the seller does not own or that the
seller owns but does not deliver. In order to deliver the security to
the purchaser, the short seller will borrow the security, typically
from a broker-dealer or institutional investor.
[1] Tauli, Tom. What is Short Selling?. McGraw-Hill. New York: 2004. hlm. 3.
Short Selling
1.
2.
3.
4.
Margin Account
Transaksi margin account yang dilakukan antara
short seller dan perusahaan broker didukung
oleh suatu perjanjian (agreement) yang mengatur
hak dan kewajiban para pihak. Bursa Efek
Indonesia mendefinisikan transaksi marjin
sebagai pembelian efek untuk kepentingan
nasabah yang dibiayai oleh perusahaan efek
Background information.
Investment experience.
Insider status.
Credit check.
Insurance.
Closing your account.
Street name.
Rehypothecation
Interest
BAB 6
Efficient Frontier
1,80%
E
x
p
e
c
t
e
d
R
e
t
u
r
n
E
1,55%
0,75%
0,50%
0,005
0,010
Deviasi Standar
0,015
0,020
A
Ra
(Ra-R f)/ a
Rf
B
A
RfB
RfL
B
Rb
Slop
Rf
Portfolio Optimal
(R1 - Rf) = Z112 + Z 212 + Z 313 +................ Z n1n
(R2 - Rf) = Z112 + Z 222 + Z 323 +................ Z n2n
(R3 - Rf) = Z113 + Z 223 + Z 332 +................ Z n3n
.
.
.
(Rn - Rf) = Z11n + Z 22n + Z 33n +................ Z nn2
w i = Z i / Zi
i=1
Matriks Kovarians
C
Zi
(Ri-Rf)
1 2
12
13
14
12
2 2
23
24
13
23
3 2
34
Z3
R3-Rf
14
24
34
4 2
Z4
R4-Rf
Z1
x
Z2
R1-Rf
=
R2-Rf
Tanggal
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
Rerata
Devias i Std
Varians
2-Jan-06
3-Jan-06
4-Jan-06
5-Jan-06
6-Jan-06
9-Jan-06
11-Jan-06
12-Jan-06
13-Jan-06
16-Jan-06
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
15-Dec-06
18-Dec-06
19-Dec-06
20-Dec-06
21-Dec-06
22-Dec-06
26-Dec-06
27-Dec-06
28-Dec-06
Return
Saham
INDF
0.00000
0.03297
0.04255
-0.04082
0.01064
0.01053
0.01042
-0.02062
-0.01053
-0.02128
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
0.00730
-0.01449
-0.05147
0.03876
0.02985
-0.01449
-0.00735
0.01481
-0.01460
0.00197
0.02615
0.00068
Return
Saham
ISAT
0.03604
-0.00870
0.02632
0.02564
0.01667
0.00000
-0.02459
0.00000
-0.02521
-0.01724
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
0.00877
0.02609
-0.04237
0.01770
0.06087
0.00000
0.03279
0.04762
0.02273
0.00108
0.02315
0.00054
Return
Saham
SMGR
0.00562
0.00559
0.00000
-0.00278
-0.00279
0.02793
0.05978
0.02308
-0.00752
-0.01263
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
0.02778
0.01081
-0.03743
0.01944
0.02316
0.01198
0.00000
0.01316
-0.05714
0.00325
0.02447
0.00060
Return
Saham
TINS
0.03297
-0.01064
0.00538
0.04278
-0.01538
0.01042
-0.00515
-0.01036
0.00000
0.01571
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
-0.07051
0.04138
-0.02649
0.03401
0.00000
0.00000
0.00658
0.00000
0.15686
0.00423
0.03397
0.00115
IHSG
0.00780
0.01108
0.02280
-0.00058
0.00929
0.01866
0.01303
-0.00399
-0.00464
-0.01213
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
0.01378
-0.00254
-0.02850
0.01735
0.01261
-0.00186
-0.00100
0.01081
0.00125
0.00191
0.01314
0.00017
Expected Deviasi
Return
Standar
0.001973 0.026150
0.001077 0.023150
0.003251 0.024467
0.004232 0.033973
0.001907 0.013143
INDF
0.000684
Kovarians
ISAT
SMGR
0.000263 0.000147
0.000536 0.000168
0.000599
TINS
0.000197
0.000174
0.000107
0.001154
IHSG
0.000219
0.000192
0.000160
0.000156
0.000173
Beta
1.27
1.11
0.93
0.91
1.00
Matriks Kovarians
Matriks Kovarians (C)
0.000684
0.000263
0.000147
0.000197
0.000263
0.000536
0.000168
0.000174
0.000147
0.000168
0.000599
0.000107
0.000197
0.000174
0.000107
0.001154
Zi
Z1
Z2
Z3
Z4
(Ri-Rf)
0.001725
0.000830
0.003003
0.003985
Inverse Matriks
Invers Matriks Kovarians (C-1)
1862.88
-794.02
-201.44
-178.83
-794.02
2465.15
-464.11
-194.02
-201.44
-464.11
1862.65
-68.46
-178.83
-194.02
-68.46
932.57
(Ri-Rf)
0.001725
0.000830
0.003003
0.003985
Zi
1.237543
-1.491774
4.588807
3.040850
Nilai Zi dan Wi
Saham
INDF
ISAT
SMGR
TINS
Total
Zi
1.237543
-1.491774
4.588807
3.040850
7.375426
Wi
0.1678
-0.2023
0.6222
0.4123
1.0000
Porsi
0.1678
-0.2023
0.6222
0.4123
1.0000
Expected
Return
0.001973
0.001077
0.003251
0.004232
Total
Perkalian
0.000331
-0.000218
0.002023
0.001745
0.003881
Porsi
0.17
-0.20
0.62
0.41
INDF
0.17
0.000684
0.000263
0.000147
0.000197
INDF
0.000019
-0.000009
0.000015
0.000014
ISAT
-0.20
0.000263
0.000536
0.000168
0.000174
ISAT
-0.000009
0.000022
-0.000021
-0.000015
SMGR
0.62
0.000147
0.000168
0.000599
0.000107
SMGR
0.000015
-0.000021
0.000232
0.000027
TINS
0.41
0.000197
0.000174
0.000107
0.001154
TINS
0.000014
-0.000015
0.000027
0.000196
0.000493
0.022194
Matriks Kovarians
211
221
231
241
R1
1
212
222
232
242
R2
1
213
223
233
243
R3
1
M
214
224
234
244
R4
1
Rp
Rp
Rp
Rp
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
w1
w2
w3
w4
1
2
w
0
0
0
0
Rp
1
k
0.000527
0.001072
0.000337
0.000349
0.001077
1
0.000294
0.000337
0.001197
0.000214
0.003251
1
0.000393
0.000349
0.000214
0.002308
0.004232
1
0.001973
0.001077
0.003251
0.004232
0.000000
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
W1
W2
W3
W4
1
2
0
0
0
0
Rp
1
Inverse Matriks
855.9851
-554.3507
-188.5763
-113.0581
-27.9785
0.2764
-554.3507
406.3917
-30.2289
178.1879
-359.0934
1.1914
-188.5763
-30.2289
531.4032
-312.5980
199.9040
-0.1537
-113.0581
178.1879
-312.5980
247.4681
187.1679
-0.3141
-27.9785
-359.0934
199.9040
187.1679
-191.9698
0.4739
0.2764
1.1914
-0.1537
-0.3141
0.4739
-0.0018
0
0
0
0
Rp
1
W1
W2
W3
W4
1
2
Wi
W1
W2
W3
W4
1
2
Konstanta Rp
-27.9785
-359.0934
199.9040
187.1679
-191.9698
0.4739
k
0.2764
1.1914
-0.1537
-0.3141
0.4739
-0.0018
Konstanta Rp
-27.9785
-359.0934
199.9040
187.1679
k
0.2764
1.1914
-0.1537
-0.3141
Porsi
0.1785
-0.0654
0.5460
0.3410
1.0000
0.000403
0.020080
INDF
0.1785
0.000022
-0.000003
0.000014
0.000012
ISAT
-0.0654
-0.000003
0.000002
-0.000006
-0.000004
SMGR
0.5460
0.000014
-0.000006
0.000178
0.000020
TINS
0.3410
0.000012
-0.000004
0.000020
0.000134
Expected
Return
0.0000
0.0005
0.0010
0.0015
0.0020
0.0025
0.0030
0.0035
0.0040
0.0045
0.0050
0.0055
0.0060
0.0065
0.0070
0.0075
0.0080
0.0085
0.0090
0.0095
Varian
0.000886
0.000673
0.000508
0.000391
0.000322
0.000301
0.000328
0.000403
0.000526
0.000697
0.000916
0.001183
0.001498
0.001861
0.002272
0.002731
0.003238
0.003793
0.004396
0.005047
Standar
Deviasi
0.029764
0.025942
0.022540
0.019776
0.017948
0.017354
0.018116
0.020080
0.022939
0.026405
0.030269
0.034398
0.038706
0.043141
0.047667
0.052260
0.056904
0.061587
0.066302
0.071041
Expected Return
0.0080
0.0070
0.0060
0.0050
0.0040
0.0030
0.0020
0.0010
0.0000
0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050 0.055 0.060
Deviasi Standar
x x2
=
y 1 y2
x1 x2
Asset
Risk free asset
Risky assets
Dev Std
(x)
0.000000
0.022194
Exp. Return
(y)
0.000248
0.003881
y = 0,000248 + 0,163693 x
y
0.00025
0.00512
0.00449
0.00394
0.00349
0.00319
0.00309
0.00321
0.00353
0.00400
0.00457
0.00520
0.00588
0.00658
0.00731
0.00805
0.00880
0.00956
0.01033
0.01110
x
0.00000
0.02976
0.02594
0.02254
0.01978
0.01795
0.01735
0.01812
0.02008
0.02294
0.02640
0.03027
0.03440
0.03871
0.04314
0.04767
0.05226
0.05690
0.06159
0.06630
Expected Return
0.0050
T
0.0040
0.022194, 0.003881
0.0030
S
0.013317, 0.002428
0.0020
0.0010
Rf
0.0000
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
Deviasi Standar
0.025
0.030
0.035
0.040
(Ri-Rf)
- m2 Zjj
Zi =
ei2
j=1
C*
(Ri-Rf)
Zi =
- C*
ei2
C* = m2 Zjj
j=1
(Rj-Rf)j
m2
ej2
j=1
C* =
n
j2
(1 + m2
j=1
)
ej2
Saham
INDF
ISAT
SMGR
TINS
IHSG
Expected
Return
Varian
( 2)
Beta
0.001973
0.001077
0.003251
0.004232
0.001907
0.000684
0.000536
0.000599
0.001154
0.000173
1.27
1.11
0.93
0.91
1.00
Saham
INDF
ISAT
SMGR
TINS
Total
Risk
( 2)
Systematic
Risk
Total
Risk
( 2)
Systematic
Risk
( j m )
Unsystematic
Risk
( ej2)
( j m )
Unsystematic
Risk
( ej2)
0.000684
0.000536
0.000599
0.001154
0.000277
0.000213
0.000149
0.000142
0.000407
0.000323
0.000450
0.001013
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
40.5%
39.8%
24.9%
12.3%
59.5%
60.2%
75.1%
87.7%
2 2
2 2
0.000248
Saham
2
TINS
SMGR
INDF
ISAT
Rj
3
0.00423
0.00325
0.00197
0.00108
( Rj-Rf)
( j )
4
0.00440
0.00323
0.00136
0.00075
( m2) =
0.000173
( Rj-Rf) j
( ej2)
5
3.56186
6.20079
5.36559
2.85426
( j )
( ej^2)
6
893.91
2,064.66
3,110.22
3,440.71
( j^2)
( ej2)
7
809.17
1,917.08
3,937.16
3,821.62
( Rj-Rf) j ( j^2)
( ej2)
( ej2)
8
9
3.562 809.167
9.763 2,726.243
15.128 6,663.406
17.982 10,485.031
Cj
10
0.00054
0.00115
0.00121
0.00110
( Rj-Rf) - Cj
( j)
11
0.00386
0.00209
0.00015
-0.00036
Zj
12
2.85
4.17
0.46
-1.61
Batas
Cut Off
13
0
0
1
0
C*
0.00121
14
0.00000
0.00000
0.00121
0.00000
Zj
7.48
15
2.85
4.17
0.46
0.00
Wj
1.00
16
0.3809
0.5576
0.0615
0.0000
Wj Rj
0.003546
17
0.001612
0.001813
0.000121
0.000000
Saham
2
TINS
SMGR
INDF
ISAT
0.000248
Rj
3
0.00423
0.00325
0.00197
0.00108
( Rj-Rf)
( j)
4
0.00440
0.00323
0.00136
0.00075
( m^2) =
( Rj-Rf) j
( ej^2)
5
3.56186
6.20079
5.36559
2.85426
0.000173
( j)
( ej^2)
6
893.91
2,064.66
3,110.22
3,440.71
( j^2)
( ej^2)
7
809.17
1,917.08
3,937.16
3,821.62
( Rj-Rf) j
( ej^2)
8
3.56186
9.76265
15.12824
17.98250
( j^2)
( ej^2)
9
809.17
2,726.24
6,663.41
10,485.03
Cj
10
0.000540
0.001146
0.001215
0.001105
( Rj-Rf) - Cj
( j)
11
0.00386
0.00209
0.00015
-0.00036
Zj
12
2.95
4.40
0.80
-1.23
Batas
Cut Off
13
1
1
1
1
C*
0.00110
14
0.00054
0.00115
0.00121
0.00110
Zj
6.91
15
2.95
4.40
0.80
-1.23
Wj
1.00
16
0.4263
0.6360
0.1160
-0.1782
Wj Rj
0.003909
17
0.001804
0.002068
0.000229
-0.000192
Saham
Exp. Return
Std.Deviasi
TINS
SMGR
INDF
ISAT
Total
Tanpa
Short
Short Sale
Sale
Cut Off Rate
Cut Off Rate
(Titik R)
(Titik S)
0.0035464
0.0039087
0.0229811
0.0251051
Porsi Saham Dalam Portfolio
38.09%
42.63%
55.76%
63.60%
6.15%
11.60%
0.00%
-17.82%
100.00%
100.00%
Short
Sale
Optimal
(Titik T)
0.0038810
0.0221944
-20.23%
41.23%
62.22%
16.78%
100.00%
Expected Return
0.0050
T
0.0040
S
R
0.0030
0.0020
0.0010
0.0000
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
Deviasi Standar
0.025
0.030
0.035
0.040
E
-27.9785
-359.0934
199.9040
187.1679
k
0.2764
1.1914
-0.1537
-0.3141
Exp. Return
Std. Deviasi
w1
w2
w3
w4
1
0.0010
0.022540
0.2484
0.8323
0.0463
-0.1269
1.0000
2
0.0015
0.019776
0.2344
0.6527
0.1462
-0.0334
1.0000
3 Minimal
0.0020
0.0025
0.017948 0.017354
0.2204
0.2064
0.4732
0.2936
0.2462
0.3461
0.0602
0.1538
1.0000
1.0000
5
0.0030
0.018116
0.1924
0.1141
0.4461
0.2474
1.0000
6 Optimal
0.0035 0.003881
0.020080 0.047667
0.1785
0.1678
-0.0654
-0.2023
0.5460
0.6222
0.3410
0.4123
1.0000
1.0000
V
0.0060
Expected Return
0.0050
U
0.01969, 0.00811
0.0040
0.02219, 0.00388
0.0030
0.0020
RfB
0.0010
RfL
0.0000
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
Deviasi Standar
0.025
0.030
0.035
0.040
BAB 7
Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM)
CAPM
1.
2.
Asumsi-asumsi CAPM
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Short sale dibolehkan dan tidak terbatas. Berarti semua investor dapat
menjual saham yang tidak dimilikinya (short sale) sebanyak yang
diinginkannya. Dalam kenyataannya, short sale mempunyai persyaratan
dan mekanisme yang tidak mudah dipenuhi oleh semua orang, sehingga
tidak memungkinkan investor melakukan short sale tanpa batas.
Lending dan borrowing pada tingkat bunga bebas resiko dapat dilakukan
dalam jumlah yang tidak terbatas. Investor dapat meminjamkan (lending)
dan meminjam (borrowing) sejumlah dana yang diinginkannya pada
tingkat bunga yang sama dengan tingkat bunga bebas resiko. Dalam
kenyataannya, lending dan borrowing rate lebih tinggi daripada tingkat
bunga bebas resiko. Pemilik dana tentu saja dapat meminjamkan
(lending) uangnya dan memperoleh return sebesar tingkat bunga bebas
resiko karena uang tersebut di bawah kendali pemilik dana tersebut,
tetapi mereka tidak dapat meminjam (borrowing) uang pada tingkat bunga
bebas resiko.
Semua saham dapat dipasarkan (marketable), termasuk human capital.
Semua assets tersebut dapat dibeli di pasar. Dalam kenyataannya,
tenaga kerja, pendidikan (human capital), perusahaan perorangan, dan
asset pemerintah seperti perusahaan, gedung pemerintah, lapangan
terbang tidak dapat atau sangat sulit untuk dijual-belikan.
M
Rm
Rf
Ra
Rc
Rm
Rb
Rf
Jadi,
Ri = a + bi
R
SML
CML
Rd2
D
D2
Rd1
D1
C
M
B
B
A
Rf
Rf
=1
= 1 .3
= 1 .5
1 = 1(Rm Rf)
2 = 2(Rm Rf)
.
.
.
j = j(Rm Rf)
Ri = Rf + bi11(Rm Rf)+ bi22(Rm Rf)+......... +
bijj(Rm Rf)+ ei
Ri = Rf +(bi11+ bi22+....... + bijj)(Rm Rf)+ ei
BAB 8
Kinerja Portofolio
1.
2.
3.
4.
Uraian
Investasi Awal
Tambahan Investasi
Penarikan Dana
Jumlah yang diinvestasikan
Nilai Akhir
Gain (Loss)
Kenaikan (Penurunan)
0
2,000
0
0
2,000
2,200
200
10.0%
1
2,200
1,000
0
3,200
3,520
320
10.0%
2
3,520
0
3,000
520
572
52
10.0%
3
572
Tahun
Uraian
Portfolio A
Investasi Awal
Tambahan Investasi
Penarikan Dana
Jumlah yang diinvestasikan
Nilai Akhir
Gain (Loss)
Kenaikan (Penurunan)
Portfolio B
Investasi Awal
Tambahan Investasi
Penarikan Dana
Jumlah yang diinvestasikan
Nilai Akhir
Gain (Loss)
Kenaikan (Penurunan)
2,000
0
0
2,000
2,200
200
10.0%
2,200
1,000
0
3,200
2,880
(320)
-10.0%
2,880
0
1,000
1,880
2,068
188
10.0%
2,068
2,000
1,000
0
3,000
3,300
300
10.0%
3,300
0
1,000
2,300
2,070
(230)
-10.0%
2,070
0
0
2,070
2,277
207
10.0%
2,277
Indeks Sharpe
(Ri-Rf)/i
Ri = expected return saham atau portfolio
Rf = risk free rate of return
i = deviasi standar return saham atau portfolio
Bulan
JAN
PEB
MAR
APR
MEI
JUN
JUL
AGT
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
Exp. Return
Deviasi Std
Rf
(Ri-Rf)
(Ri-Rf)/ i
ASGR
0.00780
-0.00322
-0.00056
0.01052
0.00034
-0.00520
-0.00918
-0.00158
-0.00676
-0.00206
-0.00169
0.00825
-0.00028
0.00589
0.00024
-0.00052
ASII
0.01444
0.00208
-0.00315
0.02051
0.00612
-0.00156
-0.00508
-0.00594
-0.00757
-0.01021
0.01076
0.02015
0.00338
0.01037
0.00024
0.00313
GJTL
0.00869
0.00250
0.00474
0.03150
-0.00495
0.00156
-0.00329
-0.00541
0.00048
-0.00234
0.00242
0.00387
0.00331
0.00939
0.00024
0.00307
KLBF
0.01029
0.00705
0.00261
0.00927
-0.00077
0.00289
-0.00556
0.00104
-0.01782
0.00136
0.00517
0.00468
0.00168
0.00721
0.00024
0.00144
TLKM
0.00716
-0.00074
0.00706
0.00187
-0.00121
-0.00398
-0.00039
-0.00051
0.00203
-0.00687
0.00716
0.00648
0.00150
0.00448
0.00024
0.00126
ULTJ
0.00672
0.00030
-0.00329
0.00553
-0.00380
-0.00150
-0.00014
-0.00144
-0.00330
0.00321
-0.00317
0.00029
-0.00005
0.00338
0.00024
-0.00029
UNTR
0.00895
0.00275
0.00012
0.00960
0.00277
-0.00180
-0.00956
-0.00499
-0.00916
-0.00509
-0.00139
0.01383
0.00050
0.00711
0.00024
0.00026
IHSG
0.00655
0.00029
0.00328
0.00478
-0.00022
-0.00241
-0.00357
-0.00196
-0.00261
-0.00539
0.00278
0.00661
0.00068
0.00388
0.00024
0.00043
-0.089
0.302
0.327
0.200
0.281
-0.087
0.036
0.111
0.400
GJ TL, 0.00939
0.300
ASII, 0.01037
TLKM , 0.00448
0.200
Indeks Sharpe
KLBF, 0.00721
IHSG, 0.00388
0.100
UNTR, 0.00711
0.000
-0.001
-0.100
0.001
0.003
0.005
ULTJ , 0.00338
0.007
0.009
0.011
ASGR, 0.00589
-0.200
Standar Deviasi
ASGR
ASII
GJ TL
TLKM
ULTJ
KLBF
UNTR
IHSG
0.013
Differential Return
(R=
-R )
m Rf +
R
i
f
Differential Return
R
M
A
Market Portfolio
B
Differential Return
Rf
Saham
ASGR
ASII
GJTL
KLBF
TLKM
ULTJ
UNTR
IHSG
Rf
0.000245
0.000245
0.000245
0.000245
0.000245
0.000245
0.000245
0.000245
Rm
0.000677
0.000677
0.000677
0.000677
0.000677
0.000677
0.000677
0.000677
(Rm-Rf)
0.000432
0.000432
0.000432
0.000432
0.000432
0.000432
0.000432
0.000432
i
0.00589
0.01037
0.00939
0.00721
0.00448
0.00338
0.00711
0.00388
m
0.00388
0.00388
0.00388
0.00388
0.00388
0.00388
0.00388
0.00388
Ri
0.000900
0.001399
0.001290
0.001047
0.000743
0.000621
0.001036
0.000677
RiA
-0.00028
0.00338
0.00331
0.00168
0.00150
-0.00005
0.00050
0.00068
(RiA - Ri)
-0.001178
0.001980
0.002024
0.000637
0.000761
-0.000669
-0.000533
0.000000
0.00400
GJTL, 0.00331
0.00350
0.00338
Expected Return
0.00300
0.00250
0.00200
0.00168
0.00150
TLKM, 0.00150
0.00100
IHSG, 0.000677
0.00050
UNTR, 0.00050
ULTJ, -0.00005
0.00000
0.0000
0.0020
0.0040
-0.00050
0.0060
0.0080
ASGR, -0.00028
0.0100
0.0120
Deviasi Standar
ASGR
ASII
GJTL
KLBF
TLKM
ULTJ
UNTR
IHSG
0.0140
Indeks Treynor
(Ri-Rf)/i
Bulan
ASGR
0.00780
-0.00322
-0.00056
0.01052
0.00034
-0.00520
-0.00918
-0.00158
-0.00676
-0.00206
-0.00169
0.00825
-0.00028
0.00589
1.26
ASII
0.01444
0.00208
-0.00315
0.02051
0.00612
-0.00156
-0.00508
-0.00594
-0.00757
-0.01021
0.01076
0.02015
0.00338
0.01037
2.35
GJTL
0.00869
0.00250
0.00474
0.03150
-0.00495
0.00156
-0.00329
-0.00541
0.00048
-0.00234
0.00242
0.00387
0.00331
0.00939
1.44
KLBF
0.01029
0.00705
0.00261
0.00927
-0.00077
0.00289
-0.00556
0.00104
-0.01782
0.00136
0.00517
0.00468
0.00168
0.00721
1.13
TLKM
0.00716
-0.00074
0.00706
0.00187
-0.00121
-0.00398
-0.00039
-0.00051
0.00203
-0.00687
0.00716
0.00648
0.00150
0.00448
0.96
ULTJ
0.00672
0.00030
-0.00329
0.00553
-0.00380
-0.00150
-0.00014
-0.00144
-0.00330
0.00321
-0.00317
0.00029
-0.00005
0.00338
0.29
UNTR
0.00895
0.00275
0.00012
0.00960
0.00277
-0.00180
-0.00956
-0.00499
-0.00916
-0.00509
-0.00139
0.01383
0.00050
0.00711
1.59
IHSG
0.00655
0.00029
0.00328
0.00478
-0.00022
-0.00241
-0.00357
-0.00196
-0.00261
-0.00539
0.00278
0.00661
0.00068
0.00388
1.00
0.00024
0.00024
0.00024
0.00024
0.00024
0.00024
0.00024
0.00024
(Ri-Rf)
-0.00052
0.00314
0.00307
0.00144
0.00126
-0.00029
0.00026
0.00044
(Ri-Rf)/ i
-0.00041
0.00055
0.00133
0.00103
0.00214
0.00063
0.00128
0.00049
0.00132
0.00042
-0.00100
0.00013
0.00017
0.00070
0.00044
0.00044
JAN
PEB
MAR
APR
MEI
JUN
JUL
AGT
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
Exected Return
Deviasi Standar
i
Rf
Indeks Seharusnya
0.00250
GJ TL, 0.00214
0.00200
ASII, 0.00133
0.00150
TLKM , 0.00132
0.00128
Indeks Treynor
0.00100
0.00050
IHSG, 0.00044
0.00000
0.00
0.50
0.00017
1.00
-0.00050
1.50
2.00
2.50
ASGR, -0.00041
-0.00100
ULTJ , -0.00100
-0.00150
Beta
Series1
ASGR
ASII
GJ TL
KLBF
TLKM
ULTJ
UNTR
IHSG
Indeks Jensen
i = RiA [Rf + (Rm-Rf)i]
i
Saham
ASGR
ASII
GJTL
KLBF
TLKM
ULTJ
UNTR
Rf
0.000245
0.000245
0.000245
0.000245
0.000245
0.000245
0.000245
Rm
0.000677
0.000677
0.000677
0.000677
0.000677
0.000677
0.000677
(Rm-Rf)
0.000432
0.000432
0.000432
0.000432
0.000432
0.000432
0.000432
i
1.26
2.35
1.44
1.13
0.96
0.29
1.59
Ri
0.000789
0.001262
0.000867
0.000733
0.000659
0.000370
0.000933
RiA
-0.000278
0.003379
0.003314
0.001684
0.001504
-0.000048
0.000503
(RiA-Ri)
-0.001067
0.002117
0.002447
0.000951
0.000845
-0.000418
-0.000430
0.00400
ASII, 0.003379
0.00350
GJ TL, 0.003314
0.00300
Indeks Jensen
0.00250
0.00200
0.001684
0.00150
TLKM , 0.001504
0.00100
0.00050
IHSG, 0.000677
UNTR, 0.000503
0.00000
0.00 ULTJ , -0.000048 0.50
-0.00050
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
ASGR, -0.000278
Beta
ASGR
ASII
GJ TL
KLBF
TLKM
ULTJ
UNTR
IHSG
Expected Return
Deviasi Standar
Beta
Boleh
Short sale
0.010682
0.049503
1.62
Tanpa
Short Sale
0.010682
0.050320
1.64
Risk Free
0.000247
0.000000
0.00
IHSG
0.002465
0.022569
1.00
Expected Return
0.0100
0.0080
0.0060
Tanpa Short Sale,
1.64, 0.0038838
0.0040
0.0020
IHSG
Risk Free
0.0000
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Beta
IHSG
2.50
BAB 9
Manajemen Portofolio Aktif dan
Pasif
2.
3.
Expected
Return
-0.0020
0.0005
0.0030
0.0055
0.0080
0.0105
0.0130
0.0155
0.0180
0.0205
0.0230
0.0255
0.0280
0.0305
0.0330
Actual
Return
-4.87%
14.63%
32.22%
46.42%
56.95%
62.37%
63.02%
57.59%
47.04%
31.58%
12.26%
-10.04%
-32.95%
-56.54%
-77.86%
Deviasi
Actual Return
Incremental
Standar
dibagi
Actual Return/
Actual Return Deviasi Standar Deviasi Standar
4.61%
-1.06
3.20%
4.58
563.63%
5.37%
6.00
142.11%
7.10%
6.53
53.50%
7.63%
7.47
93.40%
7.84%
7.95
48.31%
7.93%
7.95
-0.66%
8.00%
7.20
-74.86%
8.06%
5.84
-135.72%
8.10%
3.90
-193.86%
8.12%
1.51
-239.08%
8.16%
-1.23
-274.03%
8.18%
-4.03
-279.55%
8.21%
-6.89
-286.06%
8.27%
-9.41
-252.83%
Actual Return
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
-0.005
0.000
-10.00%
0.005
0.010
0.015
Expected Return
0.020
0.025
0.030
Actual Return
100.00%
50.00%
0.00%
-0.004
-0.002
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.011
-50.00%
-100.00%
Expected Return
0.013
0.015
0.017
0.019
0.021
Actual Return
400.00%
300.00%
200.00%
100.00%
0.00%
-0.021 -0.019 -0.017 -0.015 -0.013 -0.011 -0.008 -0.006 -0.004 -0.002 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.011 0.013
-100.00%
Expected Return
0.00%
-0.008
-0.006
-0.004
-0.002
0.000
0.002
Actual Return
-20.00%
-40.00%
-60.00%
-80.00%
-100.00%
Expected Return
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.011
Portfolio
A 80.00%
c
t
u 60.00%
a
l
40.00%
R
e
t 20.00%
u
r
n 0.00%
-20.00%
P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 P17 P18 P19 P20 P21 P22 P23 P24 P25 P26 P27 P28 P29 P30
Portfolio
Actual Return
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
-0.001
-10.00%
0.001
0.003
0.005
0.007
Expected Return
0.009
0.011
0.013
0.015
A
c
t
u
a
l
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
R
e
t
u
r
n
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
-10.00%
P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 P17 P18 P19 P20 P21 P22 P23 P24 P25 P26 P27 P28 P29 P30
Portfolio
BAB 10
Implementasi Strategi Constant
Expected Retun Dalam Portofolio
Saham
35,000
30,000
Data+Proyeksi
Model
25,000
Data+Aktual+
Model+Error+
MC
20,000
Data+Proyeksi
MC
15,000
Data+Aktual+P
royeksi MC
10,000
Data+LogNorm
al
5,000
9/
4/
20
09
9/
18
/2
00
9
10
/2
/2
00
9
10
/16
/2
00
9
10
/3
0/
20
09
11
/13
/2
00
9
11
/27
/2
00
9
12
/11
/2
00
9
12
/25
/2
00
9
1/
8/
20
10
1/2
2/
20
10
2/
5/
20
10
2/
19
/2
01
0
3/
5/
20
10
3/
19
/2
01
0
Data+Aktual
5,000
Data+Proyeksi
Model
4,500
4,000
Data+Aktual+
Model+Error+
MC
Data+Proyeksi
MC
3,500
3,000
2,500
Data+Aktual+P
royeksi MC
2,000
1,500
Data=LogNorm
al
1,000
Data+Aktual
500
10
9/ 2
0
3/1
/20
10
3/5
10
9/ 2
0
2/1
/20
10
2/5
10
2/ 2
0
1/2
/20
10
1/8
09
/20
09
12
/ 25
/20
12
/ 11
/20
09
09
11
/27
/20
09
11
/13
/20
10
/ 30
/20
09
9
10
/16
20
0
09
10
/ 2/
8/ 2
0
9/1
9/4
/20
09
7,000
Data+proyeksi
Model
6,000
Data+Aktual+
Model+Error+
MC
Data+
proyeksi MC
5,000
4,000
Data+Aktual+P
royeksi MC
3,000
Data+LogNorm
la
Data=Aktual
2,000
1,000
10
9/2
0
3/1
/20
10
3/5
10
9/2
0
2/1
/20
10
10
2/5
2/2
0
1/2
/20
10
1/8
09
/20
09
12
/25
/20
09
12
/11
/20
09
11
/27
/20
09
11
/13
/20
09
10
/30
/20
10
/16
20
0
09
10
/2/
8/2
0
9/1
9/4
/20
09
1,000
900
Data+Proyeksi
Model
800
Data+Aktual+
Model+Error+
MC
Data+Proyeksi
MC
700
600
500
Data+Aktual+P
royeksi MC
400
Data+LogNorm
al
300
Data+Aktual
200
100
10
9/2
0
3/1
/20
10
3/5
10
9/2
0
2/1
/20
10
10
2/5
2/2
0
1/2
/20
10
09
1/8
/20
09
12
/25
/20
09
12
/11
/20
09
11
/27
/20
09
11
/13
/20
09
10
/30
/20
9
20
0
10
/16
09
10
/2/
8/2
0
9/1
9/4
/20
09
Harga Saham
10
19 28
37
46 55
64
Hari
73 82
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
3/29/2010
3/22/2010
3/15/2010
3/8/2010
3/1/2010
2/22/2010
2/15/2010
2/8/2010
2/1/2010
1/25/2010
1/18/2010
1,500
1/11/2010
1,600
1/4/2010
2,300
Hari
Persamaan Regresi
Lognormal Distribution
Aktual
Actual Return
200%
100%
0%
-10%
-9%
-8%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-100%
-200%
-300%
-400%
Expected Return
Aktual
Model MA(5)
Lognormal
6%
7%
Actual Return
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
-10% -9%
-8%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
6%
Expected Return
Aktual
Model MA(5)
Lognormal
7%
Actual Return
50%
0%
-10%
-9%
-8%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-50%
-100%
-150%
-200%
-250%
-300%
-350%
Expected Return
Periode 1
Periode 2
Periode 3
Periode 4
6%
7%