PPIC

Aggregate Planning
Chapter 003
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 Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter, you should be
able to :
♦ Identify or Define:
♦ Aggregate planning
♦ Tactical scheduling
♦ Graphic technique for aggregate planning
♦ Mathematical techniques for aggregate planning
♦ Describe or Explain:
♦ How to do aggregate planning
♦ How service firms develop aggregate plans

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♦AGREGAT ?

KAPASITAS PRODUKSI.
♦PERENCANAAN AGREGAT?

Proses penetapan tingkat output/kapasitas produksi secara

keseluruhan guna memenuhi tingkat permintaan yang diperoleh
dari peramalan dan pesanan dengan tujuan meminimalkan total
biaya produksi.
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 FUNGSI PERENCANAAN AGREGAT

♦ Menjamin rencana penjualan dan rencana produksi

konsisten terhadap rencana strategi perusahaan
♦ Alat ukur performansi proses perencanaan
produksi
♦ Menjamin kemampuan produksi konsisten
terhadap rencana produksi

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 FUNGSI PERENCANAAN
AGREGAT
♦ Memonitor hasil produksi actual terhadap rencana
produksi dan membuat penyesuaian
♦ Mengatur persediaan produk jadi untuk mencapai
target dan membuat penyesuaian
♦ Mengarahkan penyusunan dan pelaksanaan jadwal
induk produksi

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 TUJUAN PERENCANAAN AGREGAT

♦ Mengembangkan perencanaan produksi yang feasible

pada tingkat menyeluruh yang akan mencapai
keseimbanagan antara permintaan dan suplai dengan
memperhatikan biaya minimal dari rencana produksi
yang dibuat, walaupun biaya bukan satu-satunya bahan
pertimbangan.
♦ Sebagai masukan perencana sumber daya sehingga
perencanaan sumber daya dikembangkan untuk
mendukung perencanaan produksi.
♦ Meredam (stabilisasi) produksi dan tenaga kerja
terhadap fluktuasi permintaan
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 INPUT AGREGAT PLANNING

♦ Sumber daya yang tersedia sepanjang periode

rencana produksi harus diketahui
♦ Data permintaan yang berasal dari peramalan dan
pesanan harus tersedia
♦ Memasukkan kebijakan perusahaan yang
berkenaan dengan perencanaan agregat,
misalnya perubahan tingkat tenega kerja, dan
penentuan kebutuhan sumber daya
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 Aggregate Planning Requires

♦ Logical overall unit for measuring sales and

outputs
♦ Forecast of demand for intermediate planning
period in these aggregate units
♦ Method for determining costs
♦ Model that combines forecasts and costs so that
planning decisions can be made

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 Planning
♦ Setting goals & objectives
♦ Example: Meet demand within the limits
of available resources at the least cost
♦ Determining steps to achieve goals
♦ Example: Hire more workers
♦ Setting start & completion dates
♦ Example: Begin hiring in Jan.; finish, Mar.
♦ Assigning responsibility

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Planning Tasks and Responsibilities

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 Planning Horizons
Responsible:
Short-range plans Operations
Job assignments managers
Ordering
Job scheduling Intermediate-range plans
Sales planning Responsible:
Dispatching
Production planning and Top executives
Responsible: budgeting
Long-range plans
Operations Setting employment, inventory,
R&D
managers, subcontracting levels
New product plans
supervisors, Analyzing operating plans
Capital expenses
foremen
Facility location, expansion

Today 3 Months 1 year 5 years

Planning Horizon

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 Relationships of the Aggregate Plan

Marketplace Product Research and

and Demand Decisions Technology

Demand Process
Forecasts, Planning & Capacity
orders Decisions Work Force
Raw Materials
Available
Aggregate Inventory On
Plan for Hand
Production External
Capacity
Master Subcontractors
Production
Schedule, and MRP systems

Detailed Work
Schedules

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 Exhibit
Exhibit14.1
14.1 Process planning
Long
range Strategic capacity planning

Intermediate Forecasting
& demand Sales and operations (aggregate) planning
range management
Sales plan Aggregate operations plan
Manufacturing
Services
Master scheduling

Material requirements planning

Weekly workforce and

Order scheduling customer scheduling
Short
range
Daily workforce and customer scheduling
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 What’s Needed for Aggregate
Planning
A mathematically based aggregate planning model requires
considerable:
♦ time
♦ problem definition
♦ model development
♦ model verification
♦ model application
♦ expertise
♦ people who understand the problem
♦ people who understand both the modeling process, and the
specific model
♦ money
♦ money to pay for all of the above
♦ often requires funding for several people for several months!
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 Aggregate Planning

♦ Provides the quantity and timing of production for

intermediate future
♦ Usually 3 to 18 months into future
♦ Combines (‘aggregates’) production
♦ Often expressed in common units
♦ Example: Hours, dollars, equivalents
(e.g., FTE students)
♦ Involves capacity and demand variables

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 Aggregate Planning Goals
♦ Meet demand
♦ Use capacity efficiently
♦ Meet inventory policy
♦ Minimize cost
♦ Labor
♦ Inventory
♦ Plant & equipment
♦ Subcontract

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 Aggregate Planning Strategies
Pure Strategies
♦ Capacity Options — change capacity:
♦ changing inventory levels
♦ varying work force size by hiring or layoffs
♦ varying production capacity through overtime or idle
time
♦ subcontracting
♦ using part-time workers

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 Aggregate Planning Strategies
Pure Strategies
♦ Demand Options — change demand:
♦ influencing demand
♦ backordering during high demand periods
♦ counterseasonal product mixing

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 The Aggregate Operations Plan
♦ Main purpose: Specify the optimal
combination of
♦ production rate (units completed per unit of
time)
♦ workforce level (number of workers)
♦ inventory on hand (inventory carried from
previous period)
♦ Product group or broad category
(Aggregation)
♦ This planning is done over an intermediate-
range planning period of 3 to 18 months
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 Balancing Aggregate Demand
and Aggregate Production Capacity
10000
Suppose 10000
Supposethe thefigure
figureto
to 8000
the right represents
the right represents 8000 7000
forecast
forecastdemand
demandin in 6000 5500
6000

units 4500
units 4000

Now
Nowsuppose
supposethis
this 2000
lower figure represents
lower figure represents 0
the
theaggregate
aggregatecapacity
capacity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
of
of the companyto
the company tomeet
meet
demand
demand 10000 9000
8000
8000
What 6000
Whatwewewant
wanttotodo
doisis 6000
4000
balance 4500
balanceout
outthe
the 4000
4000
production rate,
production rate,
workforce
workforcelevels,
levels,and
and 2000
inventory to make
inventory to make 0
these
thesefigures
figuresmatch
matchupup Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
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 Required Inputs to the Production Planning System
Competitors’ Raw Market
behavior material demand
External
availability
to firm
Externa Economic
l Planning
for conditions
capacity
production

Current Current Inventory Activities Internal

physical workforce levels required to firm
capacit for
y JURUSAN TEKNIK INDUSTRI productio
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n
 Aggregate Scheduling Options -
Advantages and Disadvantages
Option Advantage Disadvantage Some
Comments
Changing Changes in Inventory Applies mainly
inventory levels human resources holding costs; to production,
are gradual, not Shortages may not service,
abrupt result in lost operations
production sales
changes

Varying Avoids use of Hiring, layoff, Used where size

workforce size other alternatives and training of labor pool is
by hiring or costs large
layoffs

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 Advantages/Disadvantages -
Continued
Option Advantage Disadvantage Some
Comments
Varying Matches seasonal Overtime Allows
production rates fluctuations premiums, tired flexibility within
through overtime without workers, may not the aggregate
or idle time hiring/training meet demand plan
costs
Subcontracting Permits Loss of quality Applies mainly
flexibility and control; reduced in production
smoothing of the profits; loss of settings
firm's output future business

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 Advantages/Disadvantages -
Continued
Option Advantage Disadvantage Some
Comments
Using part-time Less costly and High Good for
workers more flexible turnover/training unskilled jobs in
than full-time costs; quality areas with large
workers suffers; temporary labor
scheduling pools
difficult
Influencing Tries to use Uncertainty in Creates
demand excess capacity. demand. Hard to marketing ideas.
Discounts draw match demand to Overbooking
new customers. supply exactly. used in some
businesses.

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 Advantage/Disadvantage -
Continued
Option Advantage Disadvantage Some
Comments
Back ordering May avoid Customer must Many companies
during high- overtime. Keeps be willing to backorder.
demand periods capacity constant wait, but
goodwill is lost.
Counterseasonal Fully utilizes May require Risky finding
products and resources; allows skills or products or
service mixing stable workforce. equipment services with
outside a firm's opposite demand
areas of patterns.
expertise.

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 STRATEGI DAN TEKNIK
PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI

♦ STRATEGI MURNI
♦ STRATEGI CAMPURAN

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♦STRATEGI MURNI
Strategi murni adalah strategi dengan melakukan
perubahan pada salah satu factor yang tersebut diatas,
yang meliputi :
1.Mengendalikan jumlah inventori
2.Mengendalikan jumlah tenaga kerja
3.Subkontrak
4.Mempengaruhi permintaan
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♦STRATEGI CAMPURAN
Strategi ini merupakan penggunaan dua atau lebih
strategi murni untuk menghasilkan perencanaan
produksi yang feasible.

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METODE PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI

♦ LEVEL METHOD
♦ LEVEL METHOD WITH OVERTIME
♦ CHASE STRATEGY
♦ LINIER PROGRAMMING
♦ COMPROMISE STRATEGY

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 The Extremes

Level Chase
Strategy Strategy

Production
Production rate
equals
is constant
demand

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 Aggregate Planning Strategies

♦ Mixed strategy
♦ Combines 2 or more aggregate scheduling options
♦ Level scheduling strategy
♦ Produce same amount every day
♦ Keep work force level constant
♦ Vary non-work force capacity or demand options
♦ Often results in lowest production costs

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 Key Strategies for Meeting Demand

♦Chase

♦Level

♦Some combination of the two

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♦LEVEL METHOD
Metode ini menghitung jumlah tenaga kerja yang
dibutuhkan berdasarkan permintaan dan inventori yang
ada. Dengan inventori tetap setiap periodenya. Tenaga
kerja yang ada harus dapat memenuhi kebutuhan
permintaan total selama satu tahun. Dan diasumsikan
tidak ada overtime.

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♦LEVEL METHOD WITH OVERTIME
Perhitungan yang dilakukan sama seperti level work
force, hanya diasumsikan adanya overtime.
♦ CHASE STRATEGY
Pada strategi ini adanya kebutuhan tenaga kerja yang
bervariansi setiap periode berdasarkan permintaan
yang harus dipenuhi. Dan adanya inventori yang
besarnya sama tiap periodenya.
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♦LINIER PROGRAMMING
Linier programming digunakan bila produksi yang
berjalan terdiri dari dua macam produk atau lebih.
Karena tidak mungkin diselesaikan dengan metode
sebelumnya. Prosedur perhitungan yang dilakukan
melalui metode simplek yang biasanya terdapat dalam
perhitungan mengenai penelitian operasional.

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 TAHAPAN AGREGAT PLANNING

♦ COLLECTING DATA : SALES

FORECAST,ORDERS, ADANYA
BACKORDERS,INVENTORY AWAL
♦ MEMBUAT TABEL INFORMASI
♦ MENENTUKAN KAPABILITAS PRODUKSI
♦ MELAKUKAN PARTNERSHIP MEETING YANG
DIHADIRI OLEH SELURUH MANAJER.

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 FORMULA

♦ RENCANA PRODUKSI = (PERMINTAAN TOTAL-

INVENTORI AWAL)+INVENTORI AKHIR
♦ RENCANA PRODUKSI HARIAN =
RENCANA PRODUKSI BULANAN / JML HARI
KERJA
♦ SIKLUS WAKTU =
JAM KERJA YG TERSEDIA PERHARI / PRODUKSI
HARIAN
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 LEVEL METHOD

♦ MEMPUNYAI DISTRIBUSI MERATA

♦ MEMPERTAHANKAN TINGKAT KESTABILAN
PRODUKSI SEMENTARA MENGGUNAKAN
INVENTORI YANG BERVARIASI UNTUK
MENGAKUMULASI OUTPUT
♦ RENCANA PRODUKSI = PERMINTAAN TOTAL
TAHUNAN / BANYAKNYA PERIODE
♦ INVENTORY = (INVENTORI AWAL + PRODUKSI) –
PERMINTAAN TOTAL
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 CHASE STRATEGY

♦ MEMPERTAHANKAN TINGKAT KESTABILAN

INVENTORY
♦ PRODUKSI BERVARIASI MENGIKUTI
PERMINTAAN TOTAL
♦ RENCANA PRODUKSI = PERMINTAAN TOTAL

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 COMPROMISE STRATEGY

♦ KOMPROMI ANTARA KEDUA METODE

PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI
♦ DITETAPKAN TERLEBIH DAHULU HORISON
WAKTU PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI
♦ PRODUKSI DILAKUKAN KETIKA INVENTORY ON
HAND HABIS.
♦ RENCANA PRODUKSI = PERMINTAAN TOTAL
TAHUNAN / BANYAKNYA HORISON WAKTU
PERENCANAAN
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 Aggregate Planning Examples: Unit Demand and Cost Data
Suppose
Supposewewehave
havethethefollowing
followingunit
unit
demand
demandand
andcost
costinformation:
information:
Demand/mo Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
4500 5500 7000 10000 8000 6000

Materials $5/unit
Holding costs $1/unit per mo.
Marginal cost of stockout $1.25/unit per mo.
Hiring and training cost $200/worker
Layoff costs $250/worker
Labor hours required .15 hrs/unit
Straight time labor cost $8/hour
Beginning inventory 250 units
Productive hours/worker/day 7.25
Paid straight
JURUSAN hrs/day
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Workforce 200 people
 Cut-and-Try Example: Determining
Straight Labor Costs and Output
Given
Giventhe
thedemand
demandand
andcost
costinformation
informationbelow,
below,what
what
are
are the aggregate hours/worker/month, units/worker,and
the aggregate hours/worker/month, units/worker, and
dollars/worker?
dollars/worker?
Demand/mo Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
4500 5500 7000 10000 8000 6000
7.25x2
2
Productive hours/worker/day 7.25
Paid straight hrs/day 8
7.25x0.15=1.09 &
22x8hrsx$8=$14 1.09x22=23.98
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
08Days/mo 22 19 21 21 22 20
Hrs/worker/mo 159.5
Units/worker 23.98
$/worker $1,408

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 Chase Strategy
(Hiring & Firing to meet demand)
Lets
Letsassume
assumeour
ourcurrent
currentworkforce
workforceisis77workers.
workers.
Jan
Days/mo 22
Hrs/worker/mo 159.5 First, calculate net requirements for
Units/worker 23.98 production, or 4500-250=4250 units
$/worker $1,408

Then, calculate number of workers

Jan
needed to produce the net
Demand 4,500
requirements, or 4250/23.98=177.23
Beg. inv. 250
or 178 workers
Net req. 4,250
Req. workers 177.23
Finally, determine the number of
Hired
Fired 22
workers to hire/fire. In this case we
Workforce 200
only need 178 workers, we have
EndinJURUSAN
ginvento ry INDUSTRI
TEKNIK 0 200, so 22 can be fired.
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 Below
Beloware
arethe
thecomplete
completecalculations
calculationsfor
forthe
theremaining
remaining
months
monthsin
inthe
thesix
sixmonth
monthplanning
planninghorizon
horizon
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Days/mo 22 19 21 21 22 20
Hrs/worker/mo 159.5
Units/worker 24
$/worker $1,408

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Demand 4,500 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000
Beg. inv. 250
Net req. 4,250
Req. workers 177.23
Hired
Fired 22
Workforce 200 200 200 200 200 200
Endinginventory 0 0 0 0 0 0
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 Below are the complete calculations for the remaining months in
the six month planning horizon with the other costs included
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Demand 4,500 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000
Beg. inv. 250
Net req. 4,250 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000
Req. workers 3.997 5.989 6.897 9.852 7.524 6.207
Hired 2 1 3
Fired 3 2 1
Workforce 4 6 7 10 8 7
Ending inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Costs

Material $21,250.00 $27,500.00 $35,000.00 $50,000.00 $40,000.00 $30,000.00 203,750.00
Labor 5,627.59 7,282.76 9,268.97 13,241.38 10,593.10 7,944.83 53,958.62
Hiring cost 400.00 200.00 600.00 1,200.00
Firing cost 750.00 500.00 250.00 1,500.00

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$260,408.62
Level Workforce Strategy (Surplus and Shortage Allowed)
Lets
Letstake
takethe
thesame
sameproblem
problem
as
asbefore
beforebut
butthis
thistime
timeuse
use
the
theLevel
LevelWorkforce
Workforcestrategy
strategy Jan
Demand 4,500
This
Thistime
timewe
wewill
willseek
seekto
touse
use
aaworkforce Beg. inv. 250
workforcelevel
levelof
of66
workers
workers Net req. 4,250
Workers 6
Production 6,380
Ending inventory 2,130
Surplus 2,130
Shortage
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 Below
Beloware
arethe
thecomplete
completecalculations
calculationsfor
forthe
the
remaining
remainingmonths
monthsin
inthe
thesix
sixmonth
monthplanning
planninghorizon
horizon

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Demand 4,500 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000
Beg. inv. 250 2,130 2,140 1,230 -2,680 -1,300
Net req. 4,250 3,370 4,860 8,770 10,680 7,300
Workers 6 6 6 6 6 6
Production 6,380 5,510 6,090 6,090 6,380 5,800
Ending inventory 2,130 2,140 1,230 -2,680 -1,300 -1,500
Surplus 2,130 2,140 1,230
Shortage 2,680 1,300 1,500

Note,
Note, ifif we
we recalculate
recalculate this
this sheet
sheet with
with 77 workers
workers
we
we would
would havehave aa surplus
surplus
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Below
Below are
are the
the complete
complete calculations
calculations for
for the
the
remaining
remaining months
months inin the
the six
six month
month planning
planning
horizon
horizon with
with the
the other
other costs
costs included
included
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
4,500 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Note,
Note,total
total
250 2,130 10 -910 -3,910 -1,620 costs
4,250 3,370 4,860 8,770 10,680 7,300
costsunder
under
6 6 6 6 6 6 this
thisstrategy
strategy
6,380 5,510 6,090 6,090 6,380 5,800 are
areless
lessthan
than
2,130 2,140 1,230 -2,680 -1,300 -1,500 Chase
2,130 2,140 1,230
Chaseat at
2,680 1,300 1,500
$260.408.62
$260.408.62
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
$8,448 $7,296 $8,064 $8,064 $8,448 $7,680 $48,000.00 Labor
31,900 27,550 30,450 30,450 31,900 29,000 181,250.00 Material
2,130 2,140 1,230 5,500.00 Storage
3,350 1,625 1,875 6,850.00 Stockout

JURUSAN TEKNIK INDUSTRI $241,600.00

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 The Graphical Approach to
Aggregate Planning
♦ Forecast the demand for each period
♦ Determine the capacity for regular time, overtime,
and subcontracting, for each period
♦ Determine the labor costs, hiring and firing costs,
and inventory holding costs
♦ Consider company policies which may apply to the
workers or to stock levels
♦ Develop alternative plans, and examine their total
costs

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 Forecast and Average Forecast
Demand
70
Forecast
Level production using
Demand
Production rate per working day

60 average monthly
50 forecast demand

40

30

20

10

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

22 18 21 21 22 20

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 Cumulative Demand Graph for
Plan 1
7,000
6,000
Cumulative Demand (Units)
Reduction of
Cumulative level
5,000 production using
inventory

4,000 average monthly

forecast
3,000 requirements

2,000 Cumulative forecast

requirements
1,000
Excess inventory

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

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 Controlling the Cost of Labor in
Service Firms
Seek:
♦ Close control of labor hours to ensure quick response
to customer demand
♦ On-call labor resource that can be added or deleted to
meet unexpected demand
♦ Flexibility of individual worker skills to permit
reallocation of available labor
♦ Flexibility of individual worker in rate of output or hours
of work to meet demand

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