MODEL PERAMALAN HARGA TELUR AYAM RAS

DI PASAR TRADISIONAL DAN MODERN PROVINSI

JAMBI

TESIS

Oleh :
YESSY DWINATA. S
NIM P2E120008

PROGRAM STUDI MAGISTER ILMU PETERNAKAN

PASCASARJANA
UNIVERSITAS JAMBI
2022
MODEL PERAMALAN HARGA TELUR AYAM RAS
DI PASAR TRADISIONAL DAN MODERN PROVINSI
JAMBI

Yessy Dwinata. S dibawah bimbingan :

Bagus Pramusintho1 dan Firmansyah2
Program Studi Magister Ilmu Peternakan Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi

ABSTRAK

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui volatilitas harga telur ayam dan
untuk menyusun model peramalan yang tepat untuk harga telur ayam ras di pasar
tradisional dan pasar modern di Provinsi Jambi. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan di
wilayah Provinsi Jambi, berlangsung mulai tanggal 26 Oktober sampai 30
November 2021. Objek penelitiannya yaitu harga telur ayam ras di pasar
Tradisional dan Modern Provinsi Jambi yang terdiri dari wilayah Kabupaten Bungo
dan Kota Jambi dengan menggunakan metode deskriptif kuantitatif menggunakan
data skunder. Untuk jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data
berurut waktu (time series) berupa data mingguan harga telur ayam ras periode
tahun 2018 s/d bulan September 2021 yang bersumber dari Pusat Informasi Harga
Pangan Strategis Nasional. Analisis data dilakukan melalui pendekatan
ekonometrika dalam menjawab tujuannya, dengan menggunakan analisis model
(ARIMA), model ARCH/GARCH. Berdasarkan hasil pengolahan data, model
ARIMA adalah model terbaik untuk peramalan harga telur ayam ras pasar
Tradisional Kabupaten Bungo dan Kota Jambi serta pada pasar Modern Kabupaten
Bungo. Sedangkan model ARCH adalah model terbaik untuk peramalan harga telur
ayam ras pada pasar Modern Kota Jambi. Hasil peramalan harga yang tinggi
terdapat pada pasar Modern (Kabupaten Bungo) rata-rata sebesar Rp. 24.382.08,-
per kg dari bulan Oktober s/d Desember 2021. Dan dari hasil diketahui terdapat
adanya Volatilitas pada pasar Tradisional dan Modern dilihat berdasarkan CSD
(simpangan baku bersyarat). Volatilitas yang tinggi dan sering terjadi terdapat pada
pasar tradisional dan modern Provinsi Jambi yaitu Kota Jambi dengan nilai
volatilitas sebesar 0.01009950. Kebijakan penetapan harga penjualan telur ayam
ras yang ditetapkan secara nasional setiap tahunnya harus dikaji kembali berkaitan
dengan fluktuasi harga telur ayam ras di tingkat konsumen yang dapat meningkat
melebihi harga yang telah ditetapkan oleh pemerintah.
Kata kunci : Volatilitas, Harga telur ayam ras, Peramalan harga, Model ARIMA,
ARCH/GARCH.
Keterangan : 1) Pembimbing Utama
2)
Pembimbing Pendamping
 FORECASTING MODEL OF RACE CHICKEN EGG
PRICES IN THE TRADITIONAL AND MODERN
MARKETS OF PROVINCE JAMBI

Yessy Dwinata. S dibawah Supervice by:

Bagus Pramusintho1) and Firmansyah2)
Master Program of Animal Science, Postgraduate University of Jambi

ABSTRACT
This study aims to determine the price volatility of chicken eggs prices and to
device a proper forecasting model for the price of chicken eggs in traditional
markets and modern markets in Jambi Province. The study was conducted in jambi
province, taking place from October 26 to November 30, 2021. The object of his
research is the price of chicken eggs in the Traditional and Modern markets of
Jambi Province consisting of Bungo Regency and Jambi City using quantitative
descriptive methods using skunder data. For the type of data used in this study is
time series data in the form of weekly data on the price of chicken eggs in the period
2018 to September 2021 sourced from the National Strategic Food Price
Information Center. Data analysis is done through an econometric approach in
answering its objectives, using model analysis (ARIMA), arch /garch model. Based
on the results of data processing, the ARIMA model is the best model for
forecasting the price of chicken eggs of traditional bungo and jambi market races
as well as in the modern market of Bungo Regency. While the ARCH model is the
best model for forecasting the price of chicken eggs race in the modern market of
Jambi City. High price forecasting results are found in the Modern market (Bungo
Regency) on average rp. 24,382.08,-per kg from October to December 2021. And
from the results it is known that there is Volatility in Traditional and Modern
markets viewed based on CSD (conditional standard deviation). High price
forecasting results are found in the Modern market (Bungo Regency) on average
rp. 24,382.08,-per kg from October to December 2021. And from the results it is
known that there is Volatility in Traditional and Modern markets viewed based on
CSD (conditional standard deviation). High volatility and often occurs in the
traditional and modern markets of Jambi Province, namely Jambi City with a
volatility value of 0.01009950. The policy of pricing the sale of chicken eggs that
are set nationally every year must be reviewed with regard to fluctuations in the
price of chicken eggs at the consumer level that can increase beyond the price set
by the government.

Keywords : Volatility, Price of broiler eggs, Price forecasting, ARIMA,ARCH-

GARCH model.
Keterangan : 1) Main supervisor
2)
Supervising Companion.