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Teori Investasi Dan Porto Folio

Teori Investasi Dan Porto Folio

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Dipublikasikan oleh Adi Akhmadi
jadi investasi itu buat wealth
jadi investasi itu buat wealth

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Categories:Types, Business/Law
Published by: Adi Akhmadi on Jun 30, 2010
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11/10/2012

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TEORI INVESTASI DAN PORTOFOLIO

DEPARTEMEN AGRIBISNIS FAKULTAS EKONOMI DAN MANAJEMEN BOGOR AGRICULTURE UNIVERSITY 2010

INVESTASI
‡ NET ADDITION TO EXISTING CAPITAL STOCK ‡ CAPITAL ACCUMULATION ‡ CAPITAL FORMULATION Capital di sini berbeda dengan pengertian capital (modal)

INVESTASI
‡ INVESTMENT: the commitment of funds to one or more assets that will be held over some future time period ‡ INVESTMENT ANALYSIS: The study of the investment process focus: the management of an investor s wealth ‡ WEALTH : the sum of current income and the present value of all future income

INVESTMENTS
‡ INVESTMENTS terdiri dari aset keuangan (financial asset) maupun aset nyata (real asset) dan aset yang daat dipasarkan (marketable asset) maupun tidak dapat dipasarkan (non-marketable assets securities). ‡ FINANCIAL ASSETS : are paers (or electronic) claims on some issuers (government or corporotion). ‡ REAL ASSETS : are tangible assets ‡ MARKETABLE SECURITIES : are financial assets that are easily and cheaphly tradable in organized markets.

INVESTASI
‡ The investments of funds in various assets is only part of the overall financial decision making and planning that most individuals must do. ‡ Kombinasi optimasi dari aset keuangan wealth naik ‡ Wealth harus dievaluasi dan dikelola dalam konteks portofolio yang merupakan pengaturan aset seorang investor ‡ Mengapa kita berinvestasi? unutk meningkatkan kekayaan moneter saat ini maupun masa depan

INVESTASI
‡ Investasi Tetap (fixed Investment) 1. Business fixed investment 2. Residential investment ‡ Investasi Persediaan (Inventory Investment) J.A Schumpeter: Induced investment Investasi yang besar dan kecilnya sangat tergantung / dipengruhi oleh perubahan pendapatan nasional, volume penjualan, keuntungan perusahaan, dll. Outonomous Investment Investasi yang besar dan kecilnya tidak dipengaruhi oleh tingkat pendapatan, tetapi ditentukan oleh perubaha-perubahan yang bersifat jangka panjang; adanya penemuan baru, teknologi baru, dll

The Basic Nature of Investment Decisions
‡ Investors berharap mendapatkan pengembalian dari investasinya: a. Pengemabalian yang diharapkan (expected return = pengembalian yang telah diantisipasi untuk beberapa periode ke depan) b. Realized return (pengembalian aktual dari beberapa periode yang telah lalu) ‡ Investors harus selalu memperhitungkan risiko yang ada dalam suatu investasi ‡ Risiko didefinisikan sebagai peluang pengmbalian investasi yang berbeda dari pengembalian yang diharapkan

INVESTASI
‡ IN ECONOMIC The standard assumption in that investors are rational prefer certainty to uncertainty. ‡ Risk Avers Investors An investor who will not assume a given level of risk unless he or she expects to be adequately compensated. ‡ The Expected Return - Risk Tradeoff Slope upward

Teori Investasi
‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ Internal funds theory of investment Marginal efficiency of capital Akselerator Neoclassical theory of investment Tobin q

Internal Fund Theory of Investment
Stok kapital yang diinginkan dan investasi bergantung pada tingkat keuntungan perusahaan Jan Tinbergen Realized profits secara aktual merefleksikan keuntungan yang diharapakan (expected profits) Sumber Investasi ‡ Pendapatan laba yang tidak dibagikan (retained earnings) ‡ Pengeluaran depresiasi ‡ Pinjaman ‡ Penjualan obligasi ‡ Penjualan saham, dll Sumber Investasi Internal ‡ Pendapatan laba yang tidak dibagikan (retained earnings) ‡ Pengeluaran depresiasi
Dipengaruhi oleh kebijakan pajak

Marginal Efficiency of capital (MEC)
John maynard Keynes, 1936 ‡ Tingkat perolehan bersih yang diharapkan (expected net rate of return) atas pengeluaran kapital tambahan.

Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC)
Tingkat diskonto yang menyamakan aliran perolehan yang diharapkan di masa yang akan datang dengan biaya sekarang dari kapital tambahan Formula umum

Ck R Tahun

= Current cost dari investasi = Expected return = 1,2, ,n

Keputusan Investasi
‡ Keputusan Investasi Ditentukan antara Present Value (PV) dengan Current Cost (Ck) dari kapital tambahan. ‡ Jika PV>Ck = investasi dilakukan PV<Ck = investasi tidak dilakukan

Present Value
‡ Present Value

PV R I Tahun

= Present Value = Expected return = Interset Rate = 1,2, ,n

Keputusan Investasi

Keputusan Investasi ‡ Ditentukan jika MEC > i ‡ Menunjukan tingkat perolehan bersih yang diharapkan lebih besar daripada biaya peminjaman

Permintaan Investasi
Permintaan Investasi ‡ menunjukan permintaan kapital tambahan terhadap tingkat suku bunga (i) pada MEC tertentu
Suku Bunga (i) i1 i1 I = f(i)

I1

I2

Investasi (I)

Structuring The Decisions Process
To maximize the expected returns choose securities 2 steps: 1. Security Analysis Involves the valuation and analysis of individual securities harus tahu karakteristik sekuritas 2. Portofolio management The management of a group of assets portofolio performance

Portofolio Theory
‡ Portofolio Means combination of assets invested in and held by an investor ‡ Classic portofolio theory The Markowitz model diversifikasi portofolio akan menurunkan risiko portofolio ‡ Efficient Portofolio (Markowitz): A portofolio which has the largest expected return for a given level of risk or the smallest risk for a given level of expected return

Assumptions of Markowitz Model
1. Investor like return an dislike risk 2. Act rationally in making decisions 3. Make decisions on the basis of maximizing their expected utility Type of data 1. Ex-post : actual return and risk values for the period 2. Ex-ante : expected future events

Optimal Portofolio
The Single-Index Model A model that related return on each security to return on a market index Rit = ai + biRMi + e it Rit = The random return (TR) on security I in period t Rmi = The random return (TR) on market index in period t ai = The constant return unique to security I bi = Measure of the sensitivity of the stock s return to the return on the market index eit = The random residual error in periode t, or the different between actual return for some period and the return expected given the market return

Optimal Portofolio
NF = Rm = E (Ri) = E (Ri) = ai + bi RM + C1 NF + e Non market factor The random return (TR) on market index in period t ai + bi E (RM)

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