Tugas 4 Romario
Tugas 4 Romario
NIM : 25019074
David Mashley teaches two undergraduate statistics courses at Kansas College. The class
for Statistics 201 consists of 7 sophomores and 3 juniors. The more advanced course,
Statistics 301, has 2 sophomores and 8 juniors enrolled. As an example of a business
sampling technique, Professor Mashley randomly selects, from the stack of Statistics 201
registration cards, the class card of one student and then places that card back in the
stack. If that student was a sophomore, Mashley draws another card from the Statistics
201 stack; if not, he randomly draws a card from the Statistics 301 group. Are these two
draws independent events? What is the probability of
(b) a junior’s name on the second draw, given that a sophomore’s name was drawn
first?
(c) a junior’s name on the second draw, given that a junior’s name was drawn first?
(f) one sophomore’s name and one junior’s name on the two draws, regardless of order
drawn?
Sollution :
3 Junior
8 Junior
1
Jawab :
3
0 .3
10
0.3 𝑥 0.7
=
0.7 = 0.3
Untuk pengambilan kartu yang pertama dari kedua kelas tersebut tidak termasuk
dalam independent variable dikarenakan kemungkinan dari massing-masing hasil
tergantung pada masing-masing tingkatan (senior dan junior) dari setiap
pengambilan kartu yang pertama.
8 3
𝑃(𝐴2 𝑥 𝐴1) 𝑃(10) 𝑥 (10)
(c) P (A2│A1) : = 3
𝑃 (𝐴1) 𝑃 (10)
0.8 𝑥 0.3
=
0.3 = 0.3
𝑃(𝐵2) 7 7
(d) P (B1 x B2) : 𝑥 P (B1) = 𝑥 =
𝑃 (𝐵1) 10 10
Probabilitas yang didapatkan dari pengambilan kartu pada kedua kelas dengan
jenis yang sama, hamir mendekati 50%. Artinya peluang untuk mendapatkan kartu
dengan jenis yang sama dalam sekali draw tergolong besar.
𝑃(𝐴2) 8 3
(e) P (A1 x A2) : 𝑥 P (A1) = 𝑥 =
𝑃 (𝐴1) 10 10
= (0.8) x (0.3) = 0.24
2
Terdapat beberapa aspek yang menentukan peluang besar kecilnya mendapatkan
kartu yang sama pada dua ruangan dalam 1 kali tarikan/draw, salah satunya
kuantitas dari masing-masing kartu tersebut.
Dikarenakan kartu diambil secara acak dengan dua tipe kartu yang berbeda, yang 1
adalah shopomores dan satunya lagi adalah junior. Nilai probabilitas menjadi kecil
dikarenakan jumlah dari kedua kartu tersebut hampir sama banyaknya.
Kemungkinan mendapatkan kartu dengan jenis yang sama memiliki probabilitas
yang tinggi.
Problem 2-23
Ace Machine Works estimates that the probability its lathe tool is properly adjusted
is 0.8. When the lathe is properly adjusted, there is a 0.9 probability that the parts
produced pass inspection. If the lathe is out of adjustment, however, the probability of a
good part being produced is only 0.2. A part randomly chosen is inspected and found to
be acceptable. At this point, what is the posterior probability that the lathe tool is
properly adjusted?
Sollution :
- P (mesin bubut telah disetel) = 0.9 sedangkan P(mesin bubut tidak disetel) = 0.2
- P(lulus/tidak disesuaikan) = 0.9, sedangkan P(disesuaikan dan lulus) = P
(lulus/disesuaikan) x P(disesuaikan) = (0.9) (0.8) = 0.72
- P (tidak disesuaikan and lulus) = P (lulus/tidak disesuaikan) x P (tidak disesuaikan) =
(0.2) x (0.2) = 0.04
Total probabilitas dari bagian yang lolos pemeriksaan = 0.72 + 0.04 = 0.76
Sehingga untuk mendapatkan nilai kemungkinan posterior dari alat bubut disesuaika
dengan benar adalah:
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𝑃(𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑎𝑖𝑘𝑎𝑛 𝑑𝑎𝑛 𝑙𝑢𝑙𝑢𝑠) 0.72
P (disesuaikan/lulus) = = = 0.947
𝑃 (𝑙𝑢𝑙𝑢𝑠) 0.76
Peluang dari posterior alat bubut yang telah disesuaikan dengan benar adalah sebesar
0.95.
Problem 2-24
The Boston South Fifth Street Softball League consists of three teams: Mama’s Boys,
team 1; the Killers, team 2; and the Machos, team 3. Each team plays the other teams just
once during the season. The win–loss record for the past 5 years is as follows:
Each row represents the number of wins over the past 5 years. Mama’s Boys beat the
Killers 3 times, beat the Machos 4 times, and so on.
(a) What is the probability that the Killers will win every game next year?
(b) What is the probability that the Machos will win at least one game next year?
(c) What is the probability that Mama’s Boys will win exactly one game next year?
(d) What is the probability that the Killers will win fewer than two games next year?
Sollution :
M = the Machos
K = the Killers
4
3 4
𝑃 (𝑀𝐵 𝑙𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑛 𝐾) = = 0.6 𝑃 (𝑀𝐵 𝑙𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑛 𝑀) = = 0.8
5 5
2 1
𝑃 (𝐾 𝑙𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑛 𝑀𝐵) = 5 = 0.4 𝑃 (𝐾 𝑙𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑛 𝑀) = 5 = 0.2
1 4
𝑃 (𝑀 𝑙𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑛 𝑀𝐵) = 5 = 0.2 𝑃 (𝑀 𝑙𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑛 𝐾) = 5 = 0.8
b. Kemungkinan the Machos akan memenangkan pertandingan paling tidak 1 kali tahun
depan adalah
P(M lawan K) + P(M lawan MB) – P(M lawan K) P(M lawan MB)
= 1 – 0.16
= 0.84
P(MB lawan M) x P(K lawan MB) atau P(MB lawan K) and P(M lawan MB)
= 0.8 x 0.4 = 0.32; dan 0.6 x 0.2 = 0.12. Selanjutnya nilai yang didapat atas
pertandingan pertama maupun kedua , dijumlahkan menjadi 0.32 + 0.12 = 0.44
= 1 – 0.08 = 0.92
5
Problem 2-33
Gary Schwartz is the top salesman for his company. Records indicate that he makes a
sale on 70% of his sales calls. If he calls on four potential clients, what is the probability
that he makes exactly 3 sales? What is the probability that he makes exactly 4 sales?\
Sollution :
Pada kasus ini akan digunakan rumus faktorial, dimana rumus ini dipakai untuk
menghitung banyaknya susunan yang dapat dibentuk dari sekumpulan benda atau dalam
hal ini kegiatan penjualan dari seorang salesman tanpa memperhatikan urutannya.
Penyelesaian dengan menggunakan pendekatan distribusi binominal adalah sebagai
berikut.
Diketahui : Probabilitas adalah 70% = 0.7
Capaian Penjualan yang dihasilkan n = 4
Nilai data x=3 dan x = 4
Jawab :
n!
P( X x) p x (1 p) n x
x! (n x)!
4!
1. P( x 3) 0.73 x (1 0.7) 43
3! (4 3)!
4!
0.73 x (0.3) 43 0.4116
3! (4 3)!
4!
2. P( x 4) 0.7 4 x (1 0.7) 44
3! (4 4)!
4!
0.7 4 x (0.3) 44 0.4116
4! (4 4)!
Problem 2-37
An industrial oven used to cure sand cores for a factory manufacturing engine blocks for
small cars is able to maintain fairly constant temperatures. The temperature range of the
oven follows a normal distribution with a mean of 450°F and a standard deviation of
25°F. Leslie Larsen, president of the factory, is concerned about the large number of
defective cores that have been produced in the past several months. If the oven gets
hotter than 475°F, the core is defective. What is the probability that the oven will cause a
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core to be defective? What is the probability that the temperature of the oven will range
from 460° to 470°F?
Sollution :
Untuk perhitungan pada kasus ini mengacu pada Figure 2.13 (hal. 68).
Diketahui : Rata-rata suhu oven () = 450°F
Butiran pasir akan rusak apabila temperature > X = 475°F
Standa deviasi () = 25°F
1. Berapa kemungkinan inti pasir akan rusak dengan semakin naiknya suhu pada oven?
Jawab :
X 475 450
Z 1
25
Berdasarkan data yang ada, berikut adalah kurva probabilitas oven menjadi semakin
panas dari 475°F.
Berdasarkan Tabel 2.9, apabila dilihat dari kurva yang dimulai dari bagian 475 ke 450
masuk pada Z=1 yang bernilai 0.84134.
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Sehinga dapat dipastikan untuk daerah yang diarsir memiliki nilai sebesar 1-0.84134 =
0.15867 yang artinya kemungkinan suhu pada oven naik lebih panas dari 475°F adalah
sebesar 0.15867.
2. Berapa kemungkinan/probabilitas suhu oven akan berkisar pada suhu 460° to 470°F?
Jawab :
Dari kurva sebelumnya, dihitung berapa nilai yang yang didapat dari 460° ke 470°F
(arsiran berwana kuning).
460 450 10
Untuk area 470°F didapat nilai Z 0.4 , apabila dilihat pada Tabel 2.9
25 25
(kotak warna orange) Z = 0.4 memiliki nilai 0.65542. Untuk area 470°F didapat nilai
470 450 20
Z 0.8 , apabila dilihat pada Tabel 2.9 (kotak warna hijau) Z = 0.8
25 25
memiliki nilai 0.78814. Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa berapa probabilitas suhu
oven berada pada kisaran 460° sampai 470°F adalah 0.78814 – 0.65542 = 0.13272.
Problem 2-39
Susan Williams has been the production manager of Medical Suppliers, Inc., for the past
17 years. Medical Suppliers, Inc., is a producer of bandages and arm slings. During the
past 5 years, the demand for No-Stick bandages has been fairly constant. On the average,
sales have been about 87,000 packages of No-Stick. Susan has reason to believe that the
distribution of No-Stick follows a normal curve, with a standard deviation of 4,000
packages. What is the probability that sales will be less than 81,000 packages?
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Sollution :
Untuk perhitungan pada kasus ini mengacu pada Figure 2.13 (hal. 68).
- Diketahui : Rata-rata penjualan () = 87.000
Kemungkinan penjualan kurang dari > X = 81.000 pak
Standa deviasi () = 4.000
- Ditanya : Berapa Probabilitas penjualan akan lebih kuran dari 81.000 pak?
- Jawab :
X 81.000 87.000
Z
4.000
6
4
1. 5
Berdasarkan Tabel 2.9, dimana untuk bagian kanan dari 81.000 dengan Z = 1.5 memiliki
nilai sebesar 0.93319. Sehinga dapat dipastikan untuk daerah yang diarsir memiliki nilai
sebesar 1-0.93319 = 0.00681. yang artinya probabilitas penjualan akan lebih kurang dari
81.000 pak adalah 0.00681.
Problem 2-42
A new integrated computer system is to be installed worldwide for a major corporation.
Bids on this project are being solicited, and the contract will be awarded to one of the
bidders. As a part of the proposal for this project, bidders must specify how long the
project will take. There will be a significant penalty for finishing late. One potential
contractor determines that the average time to complete a project of this type is 40 weeks
with a standard deviation of 5 weeks. The time required to complete this project is
assumed to be normally distributed.
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(a) If the due date of this project is set at 40 weeks, what is the probability that the
contractor will have to pay a penalty (i.e., the project will not be finished on
schedule)?
(b) If the due date of this project is set at 43 weeks, what is the probability that the
contractor will have to pay a penalty (i.e., the project will not be finished on
schedule)?
(c) If the bidder wishes to set the due date in the proposal so that there is only a 5%
chance of being late (and consequently only a 5% chance of having to pay a
penalty), what due date should be set?
Sollution :
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waktu jatuh tempo. Berikut perhitungan untuk mengetahui berapa minggu proyek
tersebut jatuh tempo.
Berdasarkan Tabel 2.9, nilai normal distribusi=0.95 tidak tercantum dalam tabel,
maka nilai tersebut di interpolasi dari antara Z= 1.6 dan 1.7 sebagai berikut :
0.00543
Z 1.6 x(1.6 1.7) 1.6469
0.01023
Sehingga dapat dihitung nilai x = ? Minggu
X 40
1.6469 ,
5
5 (1.6469) X 40
X 48.2349
Maka tanggal jatuh tempo penyelesaian pekerjaan dengan denda 5%, pekerjaan
akan berlangsung selama 48.2394 Minggu.
Problem 2-46
A particular test for the presence of steroids is to be used after a professional track
meet. If steroids are present, the test will accurately indicate this 95% of the time.
However, if steroids are not present, the test will indicate this 90% of the time (so it is
wrong 10% of the time and predicts the presence of steroids). Based on past data, it is
believed that 2% of the athletes do use steroids. This test is administered to one athlete,
and the test is positive for steroids. What is the probability that this person actually used
steroids?
Sollution :
Berdasarkan indikasi, dari 98% atlit ada 90% yang tidak memakai steroid sisahnya
10% menggunakan steroid. Sedangkan data sebelumnya menyatakan ada 2% yang
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dipercayai menggunakan steroid yang didalamnya terdiri dari 95% positif 95%
pemakai dan sisahnya 5% tidak. Berikut tabel untuk mengetahui jumlah atlit serta
prosentase pemakai steroid.
Total
Pakai Steroid Tidak Pakai
Atlit
2% 95% 5%
98% 10% 90%
Problem 2-49
Burger City is a large chain of fast-food restaurants specializing in gourmet hamburgers.
A mathematical model is now used to predict the success of new restaurants based on
location and demographic information for that area. In the past, 70% of all restaurants
that were opened were successful. The mathematical model has been tested in the
existing restaurants to determine how effective it is. For the restaurants that were
successful, 90% of the time the model predicted they would be, while 10% of the time
the model predicted a failure. For the restaurants that were not successful, when the
mathematical model was applied, 20% of the time it incorrectly predicted a successful
restaurant while 80% of the time it was accurate and predicted an unsuccessful
restaurant. If the model is used on a new location and predicts the restaurant will be
successful, what is the probability that it actually is successful?
Sollution :
Berdasarkan data yang ada, dari 70% restoran yang sukses dibuka terdapat 90%
diprediksi berjalan lancer dan 10% gagal. Setelah menggunakan permodelan
matematika data tersebut disebutkanlah bahwa sisa dari 70% restoran yang sukses
dibuka yaitu 30% mengalami kegagalan sebesar 80% dan keberhasilan sebesar 20%
Berikut tabel untuk mengetahui jumlah restoran yang telah diuraikan diatas.
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Total
Sukses dibuka Gagal dibuka
Restoran
70% 90% 10%
30% 20% 80%
Problem 2-50
A mortgage lender attempted to increase its business by marketing its subprime
mortgage. This mortgage is designed for people with a less-than-perfect credit rating,
and the interest rate is higher to offset the extra risk. In the past year, 20% of these
mortgages resulted in foreclosure as customers defaulted on their loans. A new
screening system has been developed to determine whether to approve customers for
the subprime loans. When the system is applied to a credit application, the system
will classify the application as “Approve for loan” or “Reject for loan.” When this
new system was applied to recent customers who had defaulted on their loans, 90%
of these customers were classified as “Reject.” When this same system was applied
to recent loan customers who had not defaulted on their loan payments, 70% of these
customers were classified as “Approve for loan.”
(a) If a customer did not default on a loan, what is the probability that the rating
system would have classified the applicant in the reject category?
(b) If the rating system had classified the applicant in the reject category, what is the
probability that the customer would not default on a loan?
Sollution :
Berdasarkan data yang ada, dari 70% Pinjaman yang gagal terdapat 90% diprediksi
pinjaman ditolak dan 10% pinjaman diterima. Setelah sistem baru dijalankan, sisa dari
70% pinjaman yang gagal yaitu 30% mengalami keberhasilan pinjaman diterima
sebesar 70% dan pinjaman ditokan sebesar 30%. Berikut tabel untuk mengetahui
jumlah restoran yang telah diuraikan diatas.
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Berikut tabel untuk mengetahui jumlah restoran yang telah diuraikan diatas.
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