MANAJEMEN SAINS

TEORI KEPUTUSAN

Dr. Siti Aisjah, SE., MS

PPS MAGISTER MANAJEMEN
FAKULTAS EKONOMI UNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA
MALANG

TEORI KEPUTUSAN
Suatu proses untuk memilih tindakan

yang terbaik dari sejumlah alternatif yang

ada.
Pengambilan keputusan
1. sasaran dan tujuan
2. alternatif tindakan
3. resiko atau perolehan

Ada 4 ModelPengambilan Keputusan

1. Model keputusan dalam Kondisi Pasti
model deterministik.
Asumsi: yad pasti dan tidak menyimpang
2. Model keputusan dalam Kondisi Resiko
Setiap alternatif keputusan memiliki
kemungkinan kejadian yang lebih dari satu.
Untuk bisa dikatagorikan sebagai model
keputusan dengan resiko besarnya
probabilitas kemungkinan kejadian dari satu
alternatif keputusan harus diketahui.

ModelPengambilan Keputusan
3. Model keputusan dalam Kondisi Tidak Pasti
setiap alternatif keputusan memiliki
kemungkinan kejadian lebih dari satu.
besarnya probabilitas kejadian tidak
diketahui.
4. Model keputusan dengan Kondisi Konflik
model pengambilan keputusan dimana
pengambil keputusan lebih dari satu.

Model Keputusan Dalam

Kondisi Ketidakpastian
Model Keputusan Tanpa Probabilitas.
Contoh:
Keputusan
(untuk membeli)

Kondisi Dasar
Kondisi Ekonomi Baik
Ekonomi Krisis

Apartemen

$ 50.000

$ 30.000

Bangunan Kantor

$ 100.000

$ - 40.000

Gudang

$ 30.000

$ 10.000

Kriteria pengambilan keputusan

dalam kondsi ketidakpastian
Maximax nilai paling maksimum dari hasilhasil yang maksimum.
Maximin nilai paling maksimum dari hasilhasil yang minimum
Hurwich mencari kompromi antara kriteria
Maximax dan Maximin keputusan dikalikan
dengan Koefisien Optimisme
Minimak regretKriteria Penyesalan,
Equal Likilihood Kriteria Bobot yang Sama

Decision Analysis
Components of Decision Making
A state of nature is an actual event that may occur in the future.
A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation,
presenting the payoffs from different decisions given the various
states of nature.

Table12.1Payoff Table

Decision Analysis
Decision Making without Probabilities
Decision situation:

Table12.2
Payoff Table for the Real Estate Investments

Decision-Making Criteria:
maximax, maximin, minimax, minimax regret, Hurwicz, equal likelihood

Decision Making without Probabilities

The Maximax Criterion
- In the maximax criterion the decision maker selects the decision that will result in the
maximum of maximum payoffs; an optimistic criterion.

Table12.3
Payoff Table Illustrating a Maximax Decision

Decision Making without Probabilities

The Maximin Criterion
- In the maximin criterion the decision maker selects the decision that will reflect the maximum of
the minimum payoffs; a pessimistic criterion.

Table12.4
Payoff Table Illustrating a Maximin Decision

Decision Making without Probabilities

The Minimax Regret Criterion
- Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision
payoffs.
- The decision maker attempts to avoid regret by selecting the decision alternative that minimizes
the maximum regret.

Table12.6
Regret Table Illustrating the Minimax Regret Decision

Decision Making without Probabilities

The Hurwicz Criterion
- The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criterion.
- A coefficient of optimism, , is a measure of the decision makers optimism.
- The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the best payoff by and the worst payoff by 1- .,
for each decision, and the best result is selected.

Decision

Values

Apartment building

$50,000(.4) + 30,000(.6) = 38,000

Office building

$100,000(.4) - 40,000(.6) = 16,000

Warehouse

$30,000(.4) + 10,000(.6) = 18,000

Decision Making without Probabilities

The Equal Likelihood Criterion
- The equal likelihood ( or Laplace) criterion multiplies the decision payoff for each
state of nature by an equal weight, thus assuming that the states of nature are equally
likely to occur.

Decision

Values

Apartment building

$50,000(.5) + 30,000(.5) = 40,000

Office building

$100,000(.5) - 40,000(.5) = 30,000

Warehouse

$30,000(.5) + 10,000(.5) = 20,000

Decision Making without Probabilities

The Maximin Criterion
- In the maximin criterion the decision maker selects the decision that will reflect the maximum of
the minimum payoffs; a pessimistic criterion.

Table12.4
Payoff Table Illustrating a Maximin Decision

Decision Making without Probabilities

The Minimax Regret Criterion
- Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision
payoffs.
- The decision maker attempts to avoid regret by selecting the decision alternative that minimizes
the maximum regret.

Table12.6
Regret Table Illustrating the Minimax Regret Decision

Decision Making without Probabilities

The Hurwicz Criterion
- The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criterion.
- A coefficient of optimism, , is a measure of the decision makers optimism.
- The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the best payoff by and the worst payoff by 1- .,
for each decision, and the best result is selected.

Decision

Values

Apartment building

$50,000(.4) + 30,000(.6) = 38,000

Office building

$100,000(.4) - 40,000(.6) = 16,000

Warehouse

$30,000(.4) + 10,000(.6) = 18,000

Decision Making without Probabilities

The Equal Likelihood Criterion
- The equal likelihood ( or Laplace) criterion multiplies the decision payoff for each
state of nature by an equal weight, thus assuming that the states of nature are equally
likely to occur.

Decision

Values

Apartment building

$50,000(.5) + 30,000(.5) = 40,000

Office building

$100,000(.5) - 40,000(.5) = 30,000

Warehouse

$30,000(.5) + 10,000(.5) = 20,000

Decision Making without Probabilities

Summary of Criteria Results
- A dominant decision is one that has a better payoff than another decision under each
state of nature.
- The appropriate criterion is dependent on the risk personality and philosophy of the
decision maker.
Criterion

Decision (Purchase)

Maximax

Office building

Maximin

Apartment building

Minimax regret

Apartment building

Hurwicz

Apartment building

Equal liklihood

Apartment building

Decision Making without Probabilities

Solutions with QM for Windows (1 of 2)

Exhibit 12.1

Decision Making without Probabilities

Solutions with QM for Windows (2 of 2)

Exhibit 12.2

Exhibit 12.3

Decision Making with Probabilities

Expected Value
-Expected value is computed by multiplying each decision outcome under each state of nature by
the probability of its occurance.

Table12.7Payoff table with Probabilities for States of Nature

EV(Apartment) = $50,000(.6) + 30,000(.4) = 42,000

EV(Office) = $100,000(.6) - 40,000(.4) = 44,000
EV(Warehouse) = $30,000(.6) + 10,000(.4) = 22,000

Decision Making with Probabilities

Expected Opportunity Loss
- The expected opportunity loss is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
- The expected value and expected opportunity loss criterion result in the same decision.

Table12.8Regret (Opportunity Loss) Table with Probabilities for States of Nature

EOL(Apartment) = $50,000(.6) + 0(.4) = 30,000

EOL(Office) = $0(.6) + 70,000(.4) = 28,000
EOL(Warehouse) = $70,000(.6) + 20,000(.4) = 50,000

Decision Making with Probabilities

Solution of Expected Value Problems with QM for
Windows

Exhibit 12.4

Decision Making with Probabilities

Solution of Expected Value Problems with Excel and Excel
QM
(1 of 2)

Exhibit 12.5

Decision Making with Probabilities

Solution of Expected Value Problems with Excel and Excel QM
(2 of 2)

Exhibit 12.6

Decision Making with Probabilities

Expected Value of Perfect Information
The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) is the maximum
amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
EVPI equals the expected value given perfect information minus
the expected value without perfect information.
EVPI equals the expected opportunity loss (EOL) for the best
decision.

Decision Making with Probabilities

EVPI Example

Table12.9Payoff Table with Decisions, Given Perfect Information

Decision with perfect information: $100,000(.60) + 30,000(.40) = $72,000

Decision without perfect information: EV(office) = $100,000(.60) - 40,000(.40) = $44,000
EVPI = $72,000 - 44,000 = $28,000
EOL(office) = $0(.60) + 70,000(.4) = $28,000

Decision Making with Probabilities

EVPI with QM for Windows

Exhibit 12.7

Decision Making with Probabilities

Decision Trees (1 of 2)

- A decision tree is a diagram consisting of decision nodes (represented as squares),

probability nodes (circles), and decision alternatives (branches).
Table12.10
Payoff Table for Real
Estate Investment
Example

Figure12.1
Decision tree for
real estate
investment example

Decision Making with Probabilities

Decision Trees (2 of 2)
- The expected value is computed at each probability node:
EV(node 2) = .60($50,000) + .40(30,000) = $42,000
EV(node 3) = .60($100,000) + .40(-40,000) = $44,000
EV(node 4) = .60($30,000) + .40(10,000) = $22,000
- Branches with the greartest expected value are selected :
Figure12.2
Decision tree with
expected value at
probability nodes

Decision Making with Probabilities

Decision Trees with QM for Windows

Exhibit 12.8

Decision Making with Probabilities

Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan
(1 of 4)

Exhibit 12.9

Decision Making with Probabilities

Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan
(2 of 4)

Exhibit 12.10

Decision Making with Probabilities

Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan
(3 of 4)

Exhibit 12.11

Decision Making with Probabilities

Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan
(4 of 4)

Exhibit 12.12

Decision Making with Probabilities

Sequential Decision Trees
(1 of 2)
- A sequential decision tree is used to illustrate a situation requiring a series of decisions.
- Used where a payoff table, limited to a single decision, cannot be used.
- Real estate investment example modified to encompass a ten-year period in which several
decisions must be made:

Figure12.3
Sequential decision tree

Decision Making with Probabilities

Sequential Decision Trees
(2 of 2)
- Decision is to purchase land; highest net expected value ($1,160,000).
- Payoff of the decision is $1,160,000.

Figure12.4
Sequential decision tree
with nodal expected values

Sequential Decision Tree Analysis with QM for Windows

Exhibit 12.13

Sequential Decision Tree Analysis with Excel and

TreePlan

Exhibit 12.14

Decision Analysis with Additional Information

Bayesian Analysis
(1 of 3)
- Bayesian analysis uses additional information to alter the marginal probability of the
occurence of an event.
- In real estate investment example, using expected value criterion, best decision was to
purchase office building with expected value of $444,000, and EVPI of $28,000.

Table12.11Payoff Table for the Real Estate Investment Example

Decision Analysis with Additional Information

Bayesian Analysis
(2 of 3)
- A conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another
event has already occurred.
- Economic analyst provides additional information for real estate investment decision,
forming conditional probabilities:
g = good economic conditions
p = poor economic conditions
P = positive economic report
N = negative economic report
P(P g) = .80
P(N g) = .20
P(P p) = .10
P(N p) = .90

Decision Analysis with Additional Information

Bayesian Analysis
(3 of 3)
- A posteria probability is the altered marginal probability of an event based on additional
information.
-Prior probabilities for good or poor economic conditions in real estate decision:
P(g) = .60; P(p) = .40
- Posteria probabilities by Bayess rule:
P(g P) = P(P G)P(g)/[P(P g)P(g) + P(P p)P(p)] = (.80)(.60)/[(.80)(.60) + (.10)(.40)] = .923
- Posteria (revised) probabilities for decision:
P(g N) = .250
P(p P) = .077
P(p N) = .750

Decision Analysis with Additional Information

Decision Trees with Posterior Probabilities
(1 of 2)
- Decision tree below differs from earlier versions in that :
1. Two new branches at beginning of tree represent report outcomes;
2. Probabilities of each state of nature are posterior probabilities from Bayess rule.

Figure12.5
Decision tree with posterior
probabilities

Decision Analysis with Additional Information

Decision Trees with Posterior Probabilities
(2 of 2)
- EV (apartment building) = $50,000(.923) + 30,000(.077) = $48,460
- EV (strategy) = $89,220(.52) + 35,000(.48) = $63,194

Figure12.6
Decision tree analysis

Decision Analysis with Additional Information

Computing Posterior Probabilities with Tables

Table12.12
Computation of Posterior Probabilities

Decision Analysis with Additional Information

The Expected Value of Sample Information
The expected value of sample information (EVSI) is the difference between
the expected value with and without information.:
For example problem, EVSI = $63,194 - 44,000 = $19,194
The efficiency of sample information is the ratio of the expected value of
sample information to the expected value of perfect information:
efficiency = EVSI /EVPI = $19,194/ 28,000 = .68

Decision Analysis with Additional Information Utility

Table12.13Payoff Table for Auto Insurance Example

Expected Cost (insurance) = .992($500) + .008(500) = $500

Expected Cost (no insurance) = .992($0) + .008(10,000) = $80
- Decision should be do not purchase insurance, but people almost always do purchase insurance.
- Utility is a measure of personal satisfaction derived from money.
- Utiles are units of subjective measures of utility.
- Risk averters forgo a high expected value to avoid a low-probability disaster.
- Risk takers take a chance for a bonanza on a very low-probability event in lieu of a sure thing.

Example Problem Solution

(1 of 7)
States of Nature
Decision
Expand
Maintain Status Quo
Sell now

Good Foreign
Competitive
Conditions
$800,000
1,300,000
320,000

Poor Foreign
Competitive
Conditions
$500,000
-150,000
320,000

a. Determine the best decision without probabilities using the 5 criteria of the chapter.
b. Determine best decision with probabilites assuming .70 probability of good conditions, .30 of poor
conditions. Use expected value and expected opportunity loss criteria.
c. Compute expected value of perfect information.
d. Develp a decision tree with expected value at the nodes.
e. Given following, P(P g) = .70, P(N g) = .30, P(P p) = 20, P(N p) = .80, determine posteria
probabilities using Bayess rule.
f. Perform a decision tree analysis using the posterior probability obtained in part e.

Example Problem Solution

(2 of 7)
Step 1 (part a): Determine Decisions Without Probabilities
Maximax Decision: Maintain status quo
Decisions

Maximum Payoffs

Expand

$800,000

Status quo

1,300,000 (maximum)

Sell

320,000

Maximin Decision: Expand

Decisions

Minimum Payoffs

Expand

$500,000 (maximum)

Status quo

-150,000

Sell

320,000

Example Problem Solution

(3 of 7)
Minimax Regret Decision: Expand
Decisions

Maximum Regrets

Expand

$500,000 (minimum)

Status quo

650,000

Sell

980,000

Hurwicz ( = .3) Decision: Expand

Expand
Status quo
Sell

$800,000(.3) + 500,000(.7) = $590,000

$1,300,000(.3) - 150,000(.7) = $285,000
$320,000(.3) + 320,000(.7) = $320,000

Example Problem Solution

(4 of 7)

Equal Liklihood Decision: Expand

Expand
Status quo
Sell

$800,000(.5) + 500,000(.5) = $650,000

$1,300,000(.5) - 150,000(.5) = $575,000
$320,000(.5) + 320,000(.5) = $320,000

Step 2 (part b): Determine Decisions with EV and EOL

Expected value decision: Maintain status quo
Expand
Status quo
Sell

$800,000(.7) + 500,000(.3) = $710,000

$1,300,000(.7) - 150,000(.3) = $865,000
$320,000(.7) + 320,000(.3) = $320,000

Example Problem Solution

(5 of 7)

Expected opportunity loss decision: Maintain status quo

Expand
Status quo
Sell

$500,000(.7) + 0(.3) = $350,000

0(.7) + 650,000(.3) = $195,000
$980,000(.7) + 180,000(.3) = $740,000

Step 3 (part c): Compute EVPI

EV given perfect information = 1,300,000(.7) + 500,000(.3) = $1,060,000
EV without perfect information = $1,300,000(.7) - 150,000(.3) = $865,000
EVPI = $1.060,000 - 865,000 = $195,000

Example Problem Solution

(6 of 7)

Step 4 (part d): Develop a Decision Tree

Example Problem Solution

(7 of 7)
Step 5 (part e): Determine Posterior Probabilities
P(g
P(p
P(g
P(p

P) = P(P g)P(g)/[P(P g)P(g) + P(P p)P(p)] = (.70)(.70)/[(.70)(.70) + (.20)(.30)] = .891

P) = .109
N) = P(N g)P(g)/[P(N g)P(g) + P(N p)P(p)] = (.30)(.70)/[(.30)(.70) + (.80)(.30)] = .467
N) = .533
Step 6 (part f): Perform Decision tree Analysis with Posterior Probabilities