Pengambilan Keputusan
• Teknis : kapasitas,
energi dll
• Ekonomi : harga,
umur mesin dll
• Teknis : kapasitas,
energi dll
• Ekonomi : harga,
umur mesin dll
7 Langkah Sistematis
A = 2k
dimana Xj = 0 atau 1 menunjukkan proposal ditolak atau
diterima
Step 1 : Mendefinisikan sejumlah alternatif yang
akan dianalisa
Proposal
Alternatif Keputusan
P1 P2
A0 0 0 Do Nothing
A1 1 0 Terima P1
A2 0 1 Terima P2
A3 1 1 Terima P1 dan P2
Step 1 : Mendefinisikan sejumlah alternatif yang
akan dianalisa
INVESTMENT PROPOSAL
ALTERNATIF P1 P2 P3 . . . P(k-1) P(k)
A0 0-20 0 0 0 0
22-1
A1 1 0 0 0 0
2k-1=22=4
A2 0 1 0 0 0
A3 1 1 0 0 0
A4 0 0 1 0 0
A5 1 0 1 0 0
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
A(2k-2) 0 1 1 0 0
A(2k-1) 1 1 1 0 0
Contoh Pengembangan Proposal Alternatif:
Investasi Awal 30 22 82 70
Benefit- Annual 8 6 18 14
Nilai Sisa 3 2 7 4
Co-termination
We would like the project cash flows to end at the same time.
6-Year Planning Horizon
Alternative A :
1255 1255 1255
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2245 2245
3500
Alternative B:
2500 2500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2500
5000
Present Worth
PWA(10%) = P0 + Pannual + P2 + P4
PWA(10%) = (-3500) + 1255(P/A, 10%, 6) – 3500(P/F, 10%, 2) – 3500
P/F, 10%, 4)
PWA(10%) = (-3500) + (1255 x 4,3553) –(3500 * 0,8264) – (3500 x
0,16830)
PWA(10%) = -$3317,00
PWB(10%) = P0 + Pannual + P3
PWB(10%) = (-5000) + 2500(P/A, 10%, 6) – 5000(P/F, 10%,3)
PWB(10%) = $2311,75
AWA(10%) = P (A/P, i, n)
AWA(10%) = -3317.26(A/P,10%,6)
AWA(10%) = -$761.67
AWB(10%) = P (A/P, i, n)
AWB(10%) = $2131.58(A/P,10%,6)
AWB(10%) = $489.43
Example : Sewing Machine
$13,000
$8,000
1 2 3 4 5
$25,000
Project Life Longer Than Planning Horizon
$18,000
$8000
1 2 3 4 5
$25,000
$ 8000 + $ 10000 = $
18000
Project Life Longer Than Planning Horizon
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
PW(20%) = $3,390.20
PW(25%) = $40.08
PW(26%) = -$552.05
Step 3 : Mengestimasikan aliran kas masing-
masing alternatif
Waktu proyek :
P1 dan P3 = 3 tahun
P2 dan P4 = 2 tahun
Planning Horrizon = 6 tahun
Aliran Kas dari Alternatif
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
$8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
$ 30 $ 30
Aliran Kas dari Alternatif
$6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
$ 22 $ 22 $ 22
Aliran Kas dari Alternatif
$ 20 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
$ 92 $ 92 $ 92
Step 4 : Menentukan MARR yang akan digunakan
t 0
dimana 0 i
PRESENT WORTH
n
FW (i ) Ft 1 i n t
t 0
PW i F / P ,i , n
Take a look at an Example of Sewing Machine Again …
$13,000
$8,000
0 1 2 3 4 5
$25,000
Present Worth Method
n
PW (i) Ft (1 i) t
t 0
MARR = 20%
= $934.28
Acceptable
Present Worth Method
n
PW (i) Ft (1 i) t
t 0
MARR = 25%
= -$1,847.36
Not Acceptable
Present Worth Method
n
PW (i) Ft (1 i) t
t 0
MARR PW Status
15% $ 4.303,60 Acceptable
20% $ 934,30 Acceptable
25% -$ 1.847,10 Not Acceptable
Future Worth Method
FW (i ) PW i
n
FW (i ) Ft 1 i n t F / P ,i , n
t 0
MARR = 20%
= $2324.80
Acceptable
Future Worth Method
MARR = 25%
Not Acceptable
Future Worth Method
FW (i ) PW i
n
FW (i ) Ft 1 i n t F / P ,i , n
t 0
MARR FW Status
15% $ 8.654,20 Acceptable
20% $ 2.324,80 Acceptable
25% -$ 5.639,00 Not Acceptable
Annual Worth Method
n i (1 i ) n
AE (i ) Ft (1 i ) t AE (i) PW (i) ( A / P ,i , n )
(1 i ) 1
n
t 0
MARR = 20%
Acceptable
Annual Worth Method
MARR = 25%
Not Acceptable
n i (1 i ) n
AE (i ) Ft (1 i ) t AE (i) PW (i) ( A / P ,i , n )
(1 i ) 1
n
t 0
MARR AW Status
15% $ 381,5 Acceptable
20% $ 312,41 Acceptable
25% -$ 686.84 Not Acceptable
PW(i)
i* i
Summary of Equivalent Worth Methods
MARR PW FW AW Status
15% $ 4.303,60 $ 8.654,20 $ 381,5 Acceptable
20% $ 934,30 $ 2.324,80 $ 312,41 Acceptable
25% -$ 1.847,10 -$ 5.639,00 -$ 686.84 Not
Acceptable
Alternative
A B C
Initial Cost $4500 $9200 $6600
Annual Cash Flow $690 $1670 $1335
Which alternative is the best? Evaluate by using PW, AE, and FW!
Comparing Alternatives with Equal Lives
Using Equivalent Worth Methods
Steps
1. Calculate PW,FW or AW for all alternatives based on the
MARR.
2. Select the alternative with the greatest equivalent worth.
3. Alternatives may be ranked.
Do-Nothing Alternative
10
Initial Cost
Present Worth
(P/A,10%,10) = 6.1446
PW(10%) = P0 + A (P/A,10%,10)
PWA(10%) = -4500 + 690(P/A,10%,10) = -$260.25
PWB(10%) = -9200 +1670(P/A,10%,10) = $1061.43
PWC(10%) = - 6600+1335(P/A,10%,10) =$1603.00
Future Worth
(F/P,10%,10) = 2.5937
FW(10%) = ∑ PW0(F/P, i, n)
FWA(10%) = -$675.02
FWB(10%) = $2753.07
FWC(10%) = $4157.76
Annual Worth
(A/P,10%,10) = 0.1627
Alter-
PW FW AW Status
natif
Not
A -$ 260,25 -$ 675,02 -$ 42,35
Acceptable
B $ 1.061,43 $ 2.753,07 $ 172,74 Acceptable
C $ 1.603 $ 4.157,76 $ 260.88 Acceptable
CHOOSE C !
C>B>>A
RANKINGS ARE CONSISTENT !
HUBUNGAN PW, AE, DAN FW
PW (i) A AE (i) A FW (i ) A
PW (i) B AE (i) B FW (i ) B
PRESENT WORTH
Aplikasi Pemilihan Alternatif Ekonomi