Sesi 05

Risk Analysis
Dr. M. Budi Widiyo Iryanto

Dr. Rudolf Lumban Tobing

Bahan Ajar Analisis Laporan Keuangan untuk PPA 1

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Risk
Analysis
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Tujuan Pembahasan
Risk Analysis

• Menjelaskan bagaimana analisis laporan

keuangan digunakan untuk menilai jenis2 risiko
yang dimiliki perusahaan.
 Konsep Risiko
4

Konsep risiko memiliki arti yang berbeda bagi orang yang

berbeda, karena potensi konsekuensi risiko berbeda di
berbagai konteks dan pemangku kepentingan.

Akibatnya ada banyak difinisi risiko

Secara umum risiko adalah penyimpangan dari

yang diharapkan.
5 Risiko

Melalui Laporan arus kas dapat

diketahui perusahaan memiliki cukup
dana untuk mengcover kewajiban
pembayaran bunga atau pokok
pinjaman
 Framework for Financial Statement Analysis of
Risk

6
Chapter 5, Slide #6
 Disclosures
Regarding
Risk and
Risk
Management

Chapter 5, Slide #7 7
8 ALK digunakan untuk
mengakses risiko sebagai
berikut:

01 Financial Flexibility
02 Short term liquidity risk
03 Long-term solvency risk
04 Credit Risk
05 Bankruptcy Risk
06 Market Equity Risk
Financial Flexibility

Financial flexibility represents the ability of a

firm to strategically use debt financing to
increase returns to investments by common
shareholders.

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Financial Flexibility Include

Noted payable
Bond payable
Mortgages
Capital lease
Preferred Equity
Noncontrolling interest

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Analyzing Financial Flexibility by Disaggregating ROCE

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Lihat- KASUS PEPSI Co. Dalam bukunya Wahlen dkk

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• Current ratio
• Quick ratio
• Operating Cash Flow to Current Liabilities
= Cash Flow from Operations /
Average Current Liabilities

• Working Capital Activity Ratios

– Accounts Receivable Turnover
– Inventory Turnover
Short-Term
– Accounts Payable Turnover Liquidity
Risk
Chapter 5, Slide #14 14
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Tools:
Current ratio =
Short-Term current assets/current liabilities
Liquidity
Quick ratio =
Risk cash+mktble securities+receivables
current liabilities

Chapter 5, Slide #15 15

 Short-Term Liquidity Risk

Days of Working Capital Financing Needed:

Days Inventory Held + Days A/R Outstanding
less Days A/P Outstanding = Days of Working Capital Financing
Needed.

Revenues to Cash Ratio:

Revenues
Average Cash Balance
16

Chapter 5, Slide #16

Long-Term Solvency Risk

Debt Ratios
Long-term debt = Long-term debt
L/T debt + S/H Equity

Debt/Equity Ratio = L/T debt

S/H Equity

Liabilities to Assets Ratio = Total Liabilities

Total Assets
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Long-Term Liquidity Risk

• Interest coverage ratio:

Net income + interest exp + income tax exp
+ minority interest in earnings
Interest expense

• Operating cash flow to total liabilities:

Cash flow from operations
Avg total liabilities
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Credit Risk

Circumstances
Ongoing operations?
Operating problems, emerging businesses, investment in
intangibles – all riskier . . .
Cash Flows
Can the firm generate the cash to repay?
A/R or Inventories growing faster than sales?
A/P increase > increase in inventories?
Consistent negative CFOA?

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Credit Risk (cont.)

Cash Flows (cont.)

Capital expenditures > CFOA?
Decline in capital expenditures?
Sales of mktble securities > purchases?
Shift from L/T to S/T borrowing?
Reduced dividend payments?

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Credit Risk (cont.)

• Collateral
Marketable securities
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Property, plant & equipment
• Capacity for debt
Debt ratios
Interest coverage ratio

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Credit Risk (cont.)

• Contingencies
• Character of Management
• Conditions
Debt covenants

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23 2
3

• Perusahaan yang Bangkrut selama krisis

2008-2009:
– IndyMac Bancorp (July 2008),
– Lehman Brothers (September 2008),
– Washington Mutual (September
Analyzing 2008),
– Circuit City (November 2008),
Bankruptcy – Tribune Group (December 2008),
Saab Automobile (February 2009),
Risk – Chrysler (April 2009),
– General Motors (June 2009),
– Eddie Bauer (June 2009),
– The Jolt Company (September 2009),
and
– Simmons Bedding (November 2009)

Chapter 5, Slide #23

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2
4

Univariate Bankruptcy Prediction Models:

Models of
1. Net Income plus Depreciation, Depletion, and
Bankruptcy Amortization/Total Liabilities (long-term
solvency risk)
Prediction 2. Net Income/Total Assets (profitability)
3. Total Debt/Total Assets (long-term solvency
risk)
4. Net Working Capital/Total Assets (short-term
liquidity risk)
Univariate Bankruptcy Prediction 5. Current Assets/Current Liabilities (short-term
Models liquidity risk)
6. Cash, Marketable Securities, Accounts
Receivable/Operating Expenses Excluding
Depreciation, Depletion, and Amortization
(short-term liquidity risk)

Chapter 5, Slide #24

 Models of Bankruptcy
Prediction
Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) – Altman’s Z Score

Chapter 5, Slide #25 25

Bankruptcy Risk

Altman’s Z-score
Z less than 1.81 indicates high probability
Z greater than 3.00 indicates low probability

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Bankruptcy Prediction
Other factors
Size
Growth
Qualified Audit Opinion

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Market Equity Beta Risk

Systematic risk of the firm

Three principal explanatory variables:

Degree of operating leverage
Degree of financial leverage
Variability of sales

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Manipulation Risk

Reporting amounts outside the limits of generally

accepted accounting principles (GAAP)

That is, fraudulent reporting

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THANK YOU
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