FINANCIAL PLANNING

AND FORECASTING
Samuel Keegen Bangun, Widya Ayu Monica Wardhani
STRATEGIC PLANNING
6 Key elements:

1) Mission Statement
2) Corporate Scope
3) Statement of Corporate Objectives
4) Corporate Strategies
5) Operating Plan
6) Financial Plan
 FINANCIAL PLANNING

Perencanaan keuangan (value-based management) adalah suatu proses

yang dilakukan dengan mempelajari hasil atau efek dari berbagai
keputusan dalam performa finansial perusahan dengan mensimulasikan
pengaruhnya ke dalam model keuangan perusahaan

Langkah perencanaan keuangan:

1. Membuat asumsi mengenai apa yang akan terjadi (tingkat penjualan,
biaya, suku bunga, dan sebagainya di masa mendatang) untuk
digunakan dalam melakukan prakiraan atau peramalan keuangan.
2. Mengembangkan proyeksi laporan keuangan
3. Menghitung dan menganalisa rasio proyeksi keuangan
4. Meninjau kembali susunan rencana dan asumsi yang telah dibuat
5. Mempertimbangkan bagaimana perubahan tambahan (modifikasi)
dapat membantu perusahaan mencapai hasil yang lebih baik
 FINANCIAL PLAN
Dokumen yang mencakup asumsi,
proyeksi laporan keuangan, dan proyeksi
rasio, serta menyatukan seluruh proses
perencanaan.

Manfaat :
o Memaksimalkan keuntungan perusahaan
o Menjaga arus kas
o Meningkatkan efisiensi
o Mengurangi risiko operasional
o Memproyeksikan jangka waktu operasi
sebuah perusahaan
 PERENCANAAN DAN PRAKIRAAN
KEUANGAN

❑ Perencanaan Keuangan:
o Mengindikasikan apa yang seharusnya terjadi di masa
yang akan datang
o Dibuat setelah melakukan sales forecast atau
peramalan penjualan

❑ Prakiraan Keuangan:
o Mengindikasikan apa yang akan terjadi di masa yang
akan datang
o Menganalisa data–data yang relevan pada masa lalu
 THE SALES FORECAST

o Proses yang memungkinkan perusahaan untuk

membuat perkiraan pendapatan perusahaan
atau sales dalam beberapa waktu ke depan

o Membantu mengetahui berapa banyak

pendapatan yang diharapkan dalam jangka
waktu tertentu

o Dilakukan sebelum melakukan perencanaan

keuangan

o Harus dilakukan dengan akurat

 Compound Annual
Growth Rate (CAGR)

PRESENTATION TITLE
20XX
➢ .

➢ .

Jika growth rendah (0%) maka ΔSales = 0, maka tidak ada kenaikan asset

20XX
Primary capital sources:

1) Spontaneous increase in Accounts Payable and Accruals

2) Addition to retained earnings
3) Additional Funds Needed (AFN)

20XX PRESENTATION TITLE 10

 ADDITIONAL FUNDS NEEDED (AFN)
o Jumlah modal eksternal (interest-bearing debt dan preffered
dan common stock) yang diperlukan untuk memperoleh asset
yang dibutuhkan

THE ADDITIONAL FUNDS NEEDED (AFN) EQUATION

Projected Spontaneous Increase in

AFN = increase in - increase in - retained
assets liabilities earnings

AFN = - -
20XX
 EXCESS CAPACITY ADJUSTMENTS
o Perubahan yang dibuat pada perkiraan asset (asset forecast) yang ada karena
perusahaan tidak beroperasi dengan kapasitas penuh (full capacity) yang
maksimal

➢ Allied memiliki current assets sebanyak $1,000 juta dan fixed assets sebanyak $1,000.
➢ . (capital intensity ratio)
➢ Maka,
➢ Jika current assets telah digunakan sepenuhnya, namun hanya 96% fixed
assets yang digunakan dari kapasitas pada tahun 2015,

➢ Target fixed asset/Sales:

➢ Required level of fixed assets = (Target fixed assets/Sales) (Projected sales)
= 0.32($3,300)
= $1,056 million

➢ Earlier estimate of fixed assets = 1.1($1,000)

= $1,100 million

➢ Difference in fixed assets needed = -$44 million

➢ Required AFN = $144 million - $44 million = $70 million

 FORECASTED FINANCIAL STATEMENT (1)
Part I. Inputs
Adjustable Inputs
2015 2016 Industry Fixed Inputs
Growth rate, g NA 10.00% NA Tax rate (T) 40%
Operating cost/Sales 90.54% 89.50% 87.00% Interest rate 10.00%
Receivables/Sales 12.50% 11.00% 9.86% Shares 50
Inventories/Sales 20.50% 19.00% 9.17% Price per share $ 23.06
Total Liabilities/Assets ratio 53.00% 49.00% 40.00% FA/Sales 33.33%
Payout ratio 48.94% 47.00% 45.00%

Part II. Income Statements

2015 Change 2016
Sales $ 3,000.0 (1+g) $ 3,300.0 = sales x 1.1
Operating cost (includes depreciation) 2,716.20 0.895 2,953.50 = Operating cost/sales x sales
Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) $ 283.8 $ 346.5 = Sales – operating cost

Interest expense 88.0 See notes

Earnings before taxes (EBT) $ 195.8

Taxes 78.3 EBT(T)
Net income (NI) $ 117.5
Dividends $ 57.5 NI(Payout)

Addition to retained earnings $ 60.0

 FORECASTED FINANCIAL STATEMENT (2)
Part III. Balance Sheets
2015 Change 2016
Assets
Cash x 1,1 = Cash (grow with sales) $ 10.0 (1+g) $ 11.0
Receivables/sales x sales = Account receivable 375.0 0.1100 363.0
Inventory/sales x sales = Inventories 615.0 0.1900 627.0
1,1 x fixed assets = Fixed assets (grow with sales) 1,000.0 (1+g) 1,100.0
Cash + Receivables + Inventories + FA = Total assets $ 2,000.0 $ 2,101.0
Liabilities and Equity
(Payables + Accruals) x 1,1 = Payables + accruals (both grow with sales) $ 200.0 (1+g) $ 220.0
12.79% x IBD = Short-term bank loans (2) 110.0 See notes 103.5
Payables + Accruals + Bank Loans = Total current liabilities (3) $ 310.0 $ 323.5
87,21% x IBD = Long-term bonds (4) 750.0 See notes 706.0
Liabilities/assets x assets = Total liabilities (1) $ 1,060.0 $ 1,029.5
Common stock (6) 130.0 See notes
Retained earnings 810.0 $84.4
Total common equity (5) $ 940.0
Total liabilities and equity $ 2,000.0

Interest Bearing Debt (IBD) = Total Liabilities – (Payables + Accruals)

 FORECASTED FINANCIAL STATEMENT (1)
Part I. Inputs
Adjustable Inputs
2015 2016 Industry Fixed Inputs
Growth rate, g NA 10.00% NA Tax rate (T) 40%
Operating cost/Sales 90.54% 89.50% 87.00% Interest rate 10.00%
Receivables/Sales 12.50% 11.00% 9.86% Shares 50
Inventories/Sales 20.50% 19.00% 9.17% Price per share $ 23.06
Total Liabilities/Assets ratio 53.00% 49.00% 40.00% FA/Sales 33.33%
Payout ration 48.94% 47.00% 45.00%

Part II. Income Statements

2015 Change 2016
Sales $ 3,000.0 (1+g) $ 3,300.0 = sales x 1.1
Operating cost (includes depreciation) 2,716.20 0.895 2,953.50 = Operating cost/sales x sales
Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) $ 283.8 $ 346.5 = Sales – operating cost
Interest expense 88.0 See notes 80.9 = Interest rate x [Bank loans + bonds]
Earnings before taxes (EBT) $ 195.8 $ 265.6 = Sales – operating cost – Interest expense
Taxes 78.3 EBT(T) 106.2 = Tax rate x EBT
Net income (NI) $ 117.5 $ 159.3 = EBT - Taxes
Dividends $ 57.5 NI(Payout) $ 74.9 = Target payout ratio x Net income
Addition to retained earnings $ 60.0 $ 84.4 = Net income - Dividents

*) To find Interest Expense, we need short-term bank loans and long-term bonds 18
 FORECASTED FINANCIAL STATEMENT (2)
Part III. Balance Sheets
2015 Change 2016
Assets
Cash x 1,1 = Cash (grow with sales) $ 10.0 (1+g) $ 11.0
Receivables/sales x sales = Account receivable 375.0 0.1100 363.0
Inventory/sales x sales = Inventories 615.0 0.1900 627.0
1,1 x fixed assets = Fixed assets (grow with sales) 1,000.0 (1+g) 1,100.0
Cash + Receivables + Inventories + FA = Total assets $ 2,000.0 $ 2,101.0
Liabilities and Equity
(Payables + Accruals) x 1,1 = Payables + accruals (both grow with sales) $ 200.0 (1+g) $ 220.0
12.79% x IBD = Short-term bank loans (2) 110.0 See notes 103.5
Payables + Accruals + Bank Loans = Total current liabilities (3) $ 310.0 $ 323.5
87,21% x IBD = Long-term bonds (4) 750.0 See notes 706.0
Liabilities/assets x assets = Total liabilities (1) $ 1,060.0 $ 1,029.5
Total equity – Retained Earnings = Common stock (6) 130.0 See notes 177.1
Retained Earnings + Addition to RE = Retained earnings 810.0 $84.4 894.4
(1 – liabilities/assets) x assets = Total common equity (5) $ 940.0 $ 1,071.5
Total liabilities + total common equity= Total liabilities and equity $ 2,000.0 $ 2,101.0

Interest Bearing Debt (IBD) = Total Liabilities – (Payables + Accruals)

 FORECASTED FINANCIAL STATEMENT (3)
Part IV. Ratios and EPS

}
2015 2016E Industry
Operating cost/Sales 90.54% 89.50% 87.00%
Receivables/Sales 12.50% 11.00% 9.86%
Inventory/Sales 20.50% 19.00% 9.17% Examine to check accuracy
Total Liabilities/Assets ratio 53.00% 49.00% 40.00%
Payout ratio 48.94% 47.00% 45.00%
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
Inventory turnover 4.88 5.26 10.9
𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠
Days sales outstanding (DSO) 45.63 40.15 36.00
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠/365
Total assets turnover 1.50 1.57 1.80
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
Assets/Equity (equity multiplier) 2.13 1.96 1.67
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇
Times interest earned (TIE) 3.23 4.28 6.00
𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑠
Profit margin 3.92% 4.83% 5.00%
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
Return on assets (ROA) 5.87% 7.58% 9.00%
Return on equity (ROE) 12.50% 14.87% 15.00%

[Profit [Equity
[Total Assets
DuPont Calculations Margin Multiplier = ROE
Turnover (S/A)]
(NI/S)] (A/E)]
Actual 2015 3.92% 1.50% 2.13 12.50%
Forecasted for 2016 4.83% 1.57% 1.96 14.90%
𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
Industry average data 5.00% 1.80% 1.67 15.00%
𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘
Earnings per share (EPS) $ 2.35 $ 3.06 [𝑂𝑙𝑑 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠 + ( )
𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
 FORECASTED FINANCIAL STATEMENT (4)
Part V. Notes on Calculation
Assets in 2016 will change to this amount, from the balance sheet $ 2,101.0
Target total liabilities/assets ratio 49.00%
Resulting total liabilities: (Target total liabilities/Assets ratio)(2016 Assets) $ 1,029.5
Less: Payables and accruals (220.0)
Bank loans and bonds (= Internet-bearing debt) $ 809.5
Allocated to bank loans, based on 2015 proportions 12.79% 103.5
Allocated to bonds, based on 2015 proportions 87.21% 706.000
Interest expense: (Interest rate)(2016 Bank loans plus bonds) 80.9
Target equity ratio = 1 - Target total liabilities/Assets ratio 51%
Required total equity: (2016 Assets)(Target equity ratio) $ 1,071.5
Retained earnings, from 2016 balance sheet 894.4
Required common stock = Required equity - Retained earnings $ 177.1
Old shares outstanding (millions) 50.0
Increase in common stock = 2016 stock - 2015 stock $ 47.1
Initial price per share from input section $ 23.6
Change in shares = Change in stock/Initial price per share 2.04
New shares outstandings = Old shares + △Shares 52.04
Old EPS = 2015 Net income/Old shares outstanding $ 2.35
New EPS = 2016 Net income/New shares outstanding $ 3.06
 USING REGRESSION IN FORECASTING
Year Sales Inventories Accounts Receivables
2011 2058 387 268
2012 2534 398 297
2013 2472 409 304
2014 2850 415 315
2015 3000 615 375
2016 3300

400 700
y = 0.0967x + 61.997
350 R² = 0.8076 600 y = 0.186x - 35.703
R² = 0.5055
500
Receivables ($)

Inventories ($)
300
400
250
300
200
200
150 100
100 0
2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 3250 2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 3250
Sales ($) Sales ($)

Inventories = $35.7 + 0.186(Sales) Difference = $627 - $578 = $29

Regression analysis shows less value than
Inventories = $35.7 + 0.186($3300) = $578 the forecasted financial statements
 ANALYZING THE EFFECT OF
CHANGING RATIO

Mempelajari atau memeriksa rasio aset tertentu untuk mendapatkan gambaran tentang kondisi
keuangan perusahaan yang lebih baik dengan melakukan perubahan pada rasio-rasio tersebut.
 MODIFYING ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE
Part IV. Ratios and EPS
2015 2016E Industry
Operating cost/Sales 90.54% 89.50% 87.00%
Receivables/Sales 12.50% 11.00% 9.86%
Inventory/Sales 20.50% 19.00% 9.17%
Total Liabilities/Assets ratio 53.00% 49.00% 40.00%
Payout ratio 48.94% 47.00% 45.00%
Inventory turnover 4.88 5.26 10.9
Days sales outstanding
45.63 40.15 36.00
(DSO)
Total assets turnover 1.50 1.57 1.80
Assets/Equity (equity
2.13 1.96 1.67
multiplier)
Times interest earned (TIE) 3.23 4.28 6.00
Profit margin 3.92% 4.83% 5.00%
Return on assets (ROA) 5.87% 7.58% 9.00%
Return on equity (ROE) 12.50% 14.87% 15.00%

Receivables at 40.15 days = 40.15($9.04) = $363.0 million

Receivables at 36.00 days = 36.00($9.04) = $325.5 million
Receivables reduction = Additional 2016 FCF = $37.5 million
 MODIFYING INVENTORIES
Part IV. Ratios and EPS
2015 2016E Industry
Operating cost/Sales 90.54% 89.50% 87.00%
Receivables/Sales 12.50% 11.00% 9.86%
Inventory/Sales 20.50% 19.00% 9.17%

Total Liabilities/Assets ratio 53.00% 49.00% 40.00%

Payout ratio 48.94% 47.00% 45.00%

Inventory turnover 4.88 5.26 10.9

Days sales outstanding (DSO) 45.63 40.15 36.00

Total assets turnover 1.50 1.57 1.80

Assets/Equity (equity
2.13 1.96 1.67
multiplier)

Times interest earned (TIE) 3.23 4.28 6.00

Profit margin 3.92% 4.83% 5.00%

Return on assets (ROA) 5.87% 7.58% 9.00%

Return on equity (ROE) 12.50% 14.87% 15.00%

Inventory at forecasted inventory turnover = $3,300/5.26 = $627 million

Inventory at industry-average turnover = $3,300/10.9 = $303 million
Inventory reduction = Additional 2016 FCF = $324 million
 OTHER "SPECIAL STUDIES"
Persamaan AFN dapat dimodifikasi untuk mendapatkan perkiraan cepat dari pengaruh pembayaran dividen pada AFN

AFN = (A0*/S0*)Δ𝑆) - (L0*/S0*)(Δ𝑆) - M(S1)(1 - Payout)

AFN = 0.6667(Δ𝑆) - 0.06667(Δ𝑆) - 0.0392(S1)(1 - 0.4894)
= 0.6667($300) - 0.06667($300) - 0.0392($3,300)(0.5106)
= $200 - $20 -$66
= $144 million

➢ Jika Allied ingin mengantisipasi masalah dengan mengumpulkan $144 juta untuk melaksanakan rencana bisnisnya.
CFO menyarankan untuk mengurangi payout rasio menjadi 20%.

AFN = (A0*/S0*)Δ𝑆) - (L0*/S0*)(Δ𝑆) - M(S1)(1 - Payout)

AFN = 0.6667(Δ𝑆) - 0.06667(Δ𝑆) - 0.0392(S1)(1 – 0.2)
= 0.6667($300) - 0.06667($300) - 0.0392($3,300)(0.8)
= $200 - $20 -$103
= $77 million
 SUMMARY
• Perencanaan dan perkiraan keuangan dilakukan untuk menghindari
kesalahan–kesalahan dalam perusahaan dan mengurangi risiko atau ketidak
pastian yang dihadapi sehingga kinerja perusahaan dapat meningkat dan
kelangsungan perusahaan dapat terjaga dengan baik.
• Dengan melakukan financial planning dan forecasting sebuah perusahaan
dapat menghsikan prakiraan yang cukup akurat mengenai pendapatan
perusahaan di masa depan.
• Jika hasil yang diproyeksikan tidak memuaskan, perusahaan dapat
merumuskan atau menghitung kembali rencananya dan mengembangkan
target yang lebih sesuai untuk tahun-tahun mendatang.
• Investor dan perusahaan menggunakan teknik forecasting untuk membantu
menentukan harga saham perusahaan, untuk memperkirakan keuntungan,
dan memperkirakan bagaimana perubahan struktur modal, kebijakan
dividen, dan kebijakan modal kerja mempengaruhi nilai pemegang saham.
• Dengan dicapainya pertumbuhan penjualan(sales) sebesar 10%, maka dapat
membuat kondisi finansial perusahaan Allied menjadi lebih baik,
meningkatkan harga saham perusahaan dan membuat perusahaan tersebut
sesuai rata-rata industri untuk kategori jenis usaha yang sama.
THANK YOU