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Budisantoso WIRJODIRDJO
A system is an interconnected
set of elements that is
coherently organized in a way
that achieves something
Donella H. Meadows, Thinking in Systems: A Primer (Chelsea Green Publishing, 2008) 11
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Pencernaan
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Hutan
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Komunitas Sosial
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ELEMEN-ELEMEN
INTER-RELASI
TUJUAN
KINERJA
LINGKUNGAN
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SYSTEM INTEGRITY
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Tidak
Terkendali
Diharapkan
INPUT
OUTPUT
Tidak
Diharapk
an
Terkenda
li
Manajemen
Pengendalia
n
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permasalahan
dunia nyata secara komprehensif
fenomena sistem
...............Dimana ada suatu interaksi mutual
antara satu bagian terhadap bagian yang lain
didalam sistem.
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Berpikir Sistem
Max Barret
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Webecoist.com
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Berpikir Sistem
KESELURUHAN Bagianbagian
Berpikir Holistic
!!!
??
??
Banyak (Selalu)
keterbatasan sudut
pandang
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Berpikir Sistem
In contrast, focuses on how the
thing being studied interacts with
the other constituents of the
systema set of elements that
interact to produce behaviorof
which it is a part.
18
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Memahami Sistem
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Memahami Sistem
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Memahami Sistem
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Pengaruh
lay
e
D
Dampak
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Menguji
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fenomena penyurutan....
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dan akibat
Struktur dasar yang menentukan
pola perilaku
Sebab dan Akibat (multiple)
Struktur dasar yang menentukan pola
perilaku
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antar elemen:
B
- A mempengaruhi B A
- B mempengaruhi A
- Interaksi Mutual
- Jika A diubah B juga berubah, dan
jika B berubah maka A akan berubah
pula
...................Ini sebuah langkah
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PEMODELAN SISTEM
(Explikasi III : Perspektif Sistem)
BDSTS-SEM-MOD-TI
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-- George Box
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Model Formal...
Model Optimasi : Dibangun atas dasar jalan
terbaik dalam mencapai tujuan.
Model Ekonometrik : Mengukur relasi
ekonomi, analisis data statistik dan
menemukan korelasi diantara variabel
terpilih.
Model Simulasi : Menemukan penentu utama
atas perilaku sistem.
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Hubungan sebabakibat
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T1 berpengaruh pada
pengurangan T2
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Pendapatan bertambah
pendapatan bertambah
pula
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loop
Genap merupakan loop penguatan
Ganjil merupakan loop menuju keseimbangan
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Desired
Water
Level
Faucet
Positio
n
Perceive
d
Gap
Water
Flow
Current
Water
Level
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Pesticide
Application
Insects
Damaging Crops
1.
The letter indicates how the two variables are related: an s means
they change in the same direction - if one goes up then the other
goes up, and an o means they change in the opposite direction - if
one goes up then the other goes down (or vice versa).
2.
3.
Number of
Insect A
O Damaging
Crop
Number of Insect B
Pesticide
Application
S
Total number of
Insects damaging crop
Number of Insect B
Damaging Crop
S
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The problem of crop damage due to insects often does get better - in
the short term.
Unfortunately, what frequently happens is that in following years the
problem of crop damage gets worse and worse and the pesticide that
formerly seemed so effective does not seem to help anymore.
This is because the insect A that was eating the crops was controlling
the population of another insect B, either by preying on it or by
competing with it.
When the pesticide kills the insects A that were eating the crops, it
eliminates the control that those insects were applying on the
population of the other insects, insects B).
Then the population of the insects B that were being controlled
explodes and continue to damage the crops.
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KELAHIRAN
KELAHIRAN
+
POPULASI
+
POPULASI
KEMATIAN
KELAHIRAN
KEMATIAN
+
[+]
+
POPULASI
[-]
KEMATIAN
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Dinamika Populasi
Kelahiran
+
Populasi
-
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Kematian
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KELAHIRAN
+
[+]
+
Rate 1
Level
Rate 2
POPULASI
[-]
KEMATIAN
[-]
Kelahiran
+
+
[+]
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Populasi
+
Kematian
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+
Pembiayaan di luar
tanggungan asuransi 0
Anggaran Pelaksanaan
Proyek 0
Pembiayaan
asuransi 0
-Total biaya
kecelakaan 0
HPS
Subkontraktor 0
Keparahan
kecelakaan 0
Kontrak
Subkontraktor 0
+
Kedisiplinan
pekerja 0
+
Kelelahan 0
Usia 0
Masa kerja 0
+
Kondisi kerja 0
+
- Kesadaran
+ keselamatan 0
+
+
Tingkat kecelakaan
kerja 0
Kepedualian
Manajemen 0
+
+
Kebutuhan +
training 0
Tingkat kecelakaan
kerja 1
+
Tingkat risiko +
kerja 0
Punishment 0
Investasi program
K3 0
+
Kebutuhan peralatan &
perlengkapan keselamatan
0
+
Anggaran K3 0
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+
Jumlah pekerja 0
Reward 0
+
Jenis pekerjaan 0
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