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Jurnal

STUDI SOSIAL, POLITIK


DAN EKONOMI
Roger Pearson
Redaktur Umum
Dwight D. Murphey
Associate Editor

Fall, 2014 Vol. 39, No. 3

Daftar Isi
Penanaman Modal Asing, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, dan
Ketenagakerjaan: Perspektif Global
Bassam A. Albassam ........................... ................................................................... ............... 269

Intervensi Literasi Keuangan: Mengevaluasi Dampak


dan Cakupan Program Literasi Keuangan pada Tabungan,
Pensiun, dan Investasi
Percy Austin dan Elizabeth Arnott-Hill........ ................................................................... .. 290

Perubahan Demografis dan Ekonomi Masyarakat yang Menua: Temuan


Kunci pada Posisi Teoritis Ekonomi Penuaan dalam Sains Norbert H.
Meiners dan Carla da Silva Santana............ .............................. 315

BOOK Review ARTICLE


A provokatif Lihatlah Robert Gates' “Memoirs of a
Sekretaris di Perang”
Dwight D. Murphey................................................ ................................................... 342
Ulasan Buku:
Kesempatan Berjuang • Dengan Kebebasan dan Dividen untuk Semua:
Bagaimana Menyelamatkan Kelas Menengah Kita Saat Bekerja Jangan Bayar
Cukup • Identitas Eropa yang Bersaing: Supranasionalisme, Etnoregionalisme,
Agama, dan Nasionalisme Baru • Migrasi Internasional: Hambatan Mencapai
Stabilitas Dunia ................... 363

Pengajuan Manuskrip............................................................. ................................. 392


Dewan Editorial

Editor Umum Associate Editor


Roger Pearson Dwight D. Murphey
Dewan Sosial dan Ekonomi Studi Universitas Negeri Wichita (Purn) Washington,
DC

Komite Penasihat
William T. AndersonAldric Hama
Universitas NegeriFrostburg Universitas Miami Stephen R. Bowers
George A. Kourvetaris Universitas Liberty, Lynchburg Universitas Illinois
Utara Gary Bullert Edward M. Miller
Universitas Universitas Seattle dari New Orleans F. McA. Clifford-
Vaughan Alan Ned Sabrosky Universitas Natal Rhodes College,
Memphis Donald A. Collins Tatu Vanhanen
Internat. Layanan Bantuan Dana Universitas Helsinki Sam. S. Crutchfield,
Jr. Joseph Wayne Smith Washington, DC Universitas Adelaide
Universitas
Oleg Zinam
Universitas Cincinnati

Jurnal Studi Sosial, Politik dan Ekonomi adalah jurnal referensi yang diterbitkan setiap tiga
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Copyright ♥ 2014 oleh Dewan Sosial & Ekonomi Studi


269

PMA Investasi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, dan


Ketenagakerjaan: Sebuah Perspektif Global
Bassam A. Albassam*
Institut Administrasi Publik, Riyadh

Sementara investasi asing telah dicari oleh banyak negara, tidak


ada konsensus mengenai dampak investasi asing langsung (FDI)
pada perekonomian negara tuan rumah. Upaya untuk menarik
investasi asing melalui penerapan peraturan baru dan keterbukaan
ekonomi, di antara tindakan pemerintah lainnya, telah mencapai rekor
tertinggi dalam perdagangan internasional danseluruh dunia
barang dagangan dipada tahun 2012. Studi saat ini mengeksplorasi
dampak arus masuk FDI terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan
ketenagakerjaan secara global selama periode 1999-2012. Hasilnya
sesuai dengan sebagian besar studi teoritis, menunjukkan bahwa FDI
memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Studi ini
juga menyimpulkan bahwa FDI berkontribusi pada upaya pemerintah
untuk mengurangi atau setidaknya mengendalikan tingkat
pengangguran. Meskipun demikian, penting untuk mengenali
perbedaan di antara ekonomi dalam mendapatkan keuntungan dari
kehadiran investor asing di pasar negara tuan rumah. Mempelajari
wilayah atau negara tertentu adalah cara yang baik untuk mencapai
pemahaman yang lebih baik tentang dampak FDI terhadap
pembangunan ekonomi, karena negara yang berbeda memiliki
struktur ekonomi dan budaya yang berbeda yang dapat
mempengaruhi hubungan antara FDI dan pembangunan ekonomi.

Kata Kunci: Investasi Asing Langsung/Tidak Langsung: Pembangunan


ekonomi; FDI dan PDB; FDI dan pengangguran; Analisis regresi; Strategi
pengembangan.

Pendahuluan
Pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan salah satu tantangan utama
yang dihadapi oleh negara-negara di dunia, terutama setelah krisis
ekonomi global tahun 2008 yang menyebabkan sebagian besar negara
mengalami penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Karena menarik investor
asing dianggap oleh banyak pemerintah dan ekonom sebagai cara
penting untuk membantu pemulihan ekonomi, peraturan baru yang
berfokus pada keterbukaan ekonomi dan fasilitasi bisnis telah diadopsi
oleh pemerintah secara berurutan
*
Alamat korespondensi: albassam@ksu.edu.sa .

Volume 39, Nomor 3, Musim Gugur 2014


270 Bassam A. Albassam

untuk menarik investasi asing langsung/tidak langsung (Agrawal &


Khan, 2011; Newfarmer, 2001; Bank Dunia, 2013). Menurut Agrawal
dan Khan (2011), “[Semua] negara di dunia terus berjuang untuk
pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cepat dan sebagai hasilnya mereka
mengundang lebih banyak investasi dengan mengizinkan investor
asing untuk berinvestasi di tanah mereka” (hal. 71).
Investasi asing langsung/tidak langsung mengacu pada investasi
oleh individu dan bisnis di negara selain negara asal investor. Investasi
dilakukan dalam berbagai bentuk; membeli perusahaan atau
memperluas operasi perusahaan ke negara lain dianggap sebagai
investasi langsung, sedangkan investasi tidak langsung termasuk
membeli saham dan obligasi perusahaan lain yang beroperasi di luar
negeri (OECD, 2013; UNCTAD, 2007). Menurut Slaughter dan May
(2012), penanaman modal asing secara umum dapat dipahami sebagai
“pengalihan modal ke suatu negara, yang biasa disebut sebagai
negara tuan rumah, oleh entitas bukan penduduk. FDI adalah salah
satu bentuk investasi asing yang ditandai dengan tingkat pengaruh dan
kendali tertentu atas aset di negara tuan rumah” (hal. 3). Bidang usaha
penanaman modal asing meliputi usaha di berbagai industri, seperti
industri energi dan makanan, bahkan dapat mencakup usaha di bidang
keamanan nasional dan internasional.
Karena investor asing biasanya memiliki rencana jangka panjang
untuk investasi di negara tuan rumah, investasi FDI cenderung kurang
terpengaruh dibandingkan jenis investasi lain oleh krisis ekonomi.
Menurut Nunnenkamp (2001), “FDI dianggap kurang rentan terhadap
krisis karena investor langsung biasanya memiliki perspektif jangka
panjang ketika terlibat di negara tuan rumah. Selain sifat berbagi risiko
FDI, secara luas diyakini bahwa FDI memberikan stimulus yang lebih
kuat untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara-negara tuan rumah
daripada jenis arus masuk modal lainnya” (hal. 4).
Dampak investasi asing langsung (FDI) pada pertumbuhan
ekonomi dan lapangan kerja adalah tema utama dari makalah ini.
Pertanyaan penelitian untuk penelitian ini adalah sebagai berikut:
Apakah ada hubungan antara FDI dan pertumbuhan ekonomi? Apakah
ada hubungan antara FDI dan tingkat pengangguran? Jika demikian,
apa tingkat dan

The Journal of Social, Politik dan Studi Ekonomi


FDI, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Ketenagakerjaan: Sebuah Perspektif Global
271

arah hubungan ini? Selain mempelajari dampak jangka panjang FDI


terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan lapangan kerja, penelitian ini
mencakup periode sebelum dan sesudah krisis ekonomi tahun 2008
pada periode yang diteliti (1999-2012), memberikan kesempatan yang
sangat baik untuk mempelajari dampak krisis ekonomi global terhadap
hubungan antara FDI, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan lapangan kerja.
Bagian berikut akan membahas sumber data dan metodologi
makalah dan kemudian akan menyajikan angka FDI, pertumbuhan
ekonomi, dan tingkat pengangguran di seluruh dunia. Studi yang
membahas hubungan antara investasi asing, pertumbuhan ekonomi,
dan lapangan kerja akan dieksplorasi. Bagian terakhir akan menyajikan
hasil analisis dan diskusi tentang aplikasi empiris dari studi saat ini.
Sumber Data dan Metodologi
Data tentang arus masuk Investasi Asing Langsung (FDI), PDB per
kapita, dan tingkat pengangguran dari negara-negara yang diteliti
dikumpulkan dari database Bank Dunia. Studi ini mencakup 189
negara dengan data yang tersedia dan mencakup periode 1999-2012 .
Analisis regresi data panel adalah metodologi yang digunakan untuk
mempelajari dampak arus masuk investasi asing langsung (FDI)
terhadap PDB per kapita dan tingkat pengangguran dari perspektif
global.
Ekonomi Global
Negara-negara di seluruh dunia berusaha keras untuk menarik
investasi asing dengan memfasilitasi dan mengadopsi peraturan untuk
meningkatkan pembangunan ekonomi. Meskipun praktik tersebut telah
lama digunakan, praktik tersebut menjadi lebih menonjol setelah krisis
ekonomi global tahun 2008 (Agrawal & Khan, 2011; Anyanwu, 2012;
Colen, Maertens, & Swinnen, 2008; Newfarmer, 2001). Menurut
Konferensi Perserikatan Bangsa-Bangsa tentang Perdagangan dan
Pembangunan (1996), "di bawah kekuatan globalisasi, peran
pemerintah secara progresif bergeser ke arah menyediakan lingkungan
yang memungkinkan yang sesuai untuk perusahaan swasta" (hal. 22).
Dengan demikian, banyak pemerintah mengadopsi peraturan yang
tidak terlalu membatasi dan “keterbukaan keuangan” untuk menarik
investor asing guna meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sebagai
hasil dari “keterbukaan keuangan” seperti itu, “global

Volume39, Nomor 3, Musim Gugur 2014


272 Bassam A. AliranAlbassam

modaltelah tumbuh lebih cepat daripada perdagangan global”


(UNCTAD, 2013, hlm. 11). Akibatnya, peningkatan pesat arus FDI
secara global menggambarkan meningkatnya persaingan antar negara
dalam menarik investasi asing. Menurut Laporan Investasi Dunia tahun
2013, “[N]pembuatan kebijakan investasi nasional semakin diarahkan
pada strategi pembangunan baru. Sebagian besar pemerintah ingin
menarik dan memfasilitasi investasi asing sebagai sarana untuk
pengembangan kapasitas yang produktif dan pembangunan
berkelanjutan” (UNCTAD, 2013, hlm. x).
Meskipun ekonomi global menunjukkan tanda-tanda pemulihan,
aliran FDI global telah dipengaruhi secara kuat dan negatif oleh krisis
ekonomi tahun 2008. Pada tahun 2009, aliran FDI turun 20% dari
tingkat sebelum krisis. Selain itu, pada tahun 2012, aliran FDI global
mencapai $1,35 triliun, turun 18% dibandingkan tahun 2011.
Sebaliknya, negara berkembang meningkatkan porsi aliran FDI global
hingga mencapai 52% dari aliran masuk FDI global dan hampir
sepertiga dari aliran FDI global. arus keluar FDI global (UNCTAD,
2013). Terakhir, Laporan Investasi Dunia tahun 2013 menyatakan
bahwa “[F]aktor seperti kelemahan struktural dalam sistem keuangan
global, kemungkinan memburuknya lingkungan makroekonomi, dan
ketidakpastian kebijakan yang signifikan di bidang-bidang yang penting
bagi kepercayaan investor dapat menyebabkan penurunan lebih lanjut
dalam Aliran FDI” (UNCTAD, 2013, hlm. xii).
Akibatnya, afiliasi asing menyumbang $86.574 miliar dari total aset
secara global, dengan penjualan mendekati $26 miliar, pada tahun
2012. Selain itu, rata-rata, setiap afiliasi asing mempekerjakan sekitar
71.000 di dalam dan luar negeri (UNCTAD, 2013). Angka-angka ini
menunjukkan pentingnya perusahaan multinasional (MNCs) dan FDI
pada ekonomi dan lapangan kerja negara tuan rumah. Tabel 1
menunjukkan perbedaan antar wilayah (negara berkembang,
transaksional dan maju) arus masuk dan arus keluar FDI tahun 2012.
Arus masuk FDI mengacu pada modal yang diterima, baik secara
langsung maupun melalui perusahaan terkait lainnya dalam afiliasi
asing oleh investor langsung, sedangkan arus keluar FDI mengacu
pada terhadap modal yang diberikan oleh investor langsung kepada
afiliasinya di luar negeri (UNCTAD, 2013).
Perubahan paling penting dalam pola industri FDI selama
seperempat abad terakhir adalah pergeseran ke arah jasa yang disertai
dengan penurunan pangsa FDI dalam sumber daya alam dan

The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies


FDI, Economic Growth and Employment: Perspektif Global
273

manufaktur. Secara global, sementara FDI di sektor industri telah turun


ke urutan kedua sebagai persentase dari PDB dunia, pangsa jasa telah
meningkat, mencapai hampir tiga perempat dari PDB di ekonomi yang
lebih maju dan lebih dari setengahnya untuk negara lain (Bank Dunia,
2014c ; UNCTAD, 2013).
Pengembalian investasi (inward/outward) dianggap oleh para
ekonom dan pemerintah negara tuan rumah sebagai indikator penting
dalam mengukur keuntungan investor baru. Pengembalian investasi
masih menderita akibat krisis global tahun 2008; pada tahun 2012,
tingkat pengembalian adalah 6,6% untuk investasi masuk FDI dan
6,2% untuk investasi keluar, dibandingkan dengan 7% sebelum krisis
(UNCTAD, 2013).
Di sisi lain, perdagangan dan pertumbuhan PDB sangat erat
kaitannya, sehingga ekspansi ekspor mendukung pertumbuhan
ekonomi (Alkhathlan, 2011). Ekspor seringkali menjadi sumber utama
devisa untuk mendanai impor barang dan jasa, yang merupakan
komponen penting dari keseluruhan pasokan (Azemar & Desbordes,
2009; Buthe & Milner, 2008). Anyanwu (2012) berpendapat bahwa
meskipun banyak faktor yang berkontribusi dalam menarik FDI, “tingkat
orientasi ekspor, modal manusia, penyediaan lingkungan yang
mendukung melalui penyediaan fasilitas infrastruktur, dan stabilitas
makroekonomi merupakan penentu penting aliran FDI” (hal. 439) .
Pada tahun 2013, meskipun barang dagangan lintas batas telah turun
menjadi 3,8% (dibandingkan dengan 7,3% sebelum krisis 2008),
perdagangan barang internasional meningkat hingga mencapai lebih
dari 50% dari PDB dunia, dan perdagangan jasa internasional melebihi
11% dari PDB dunia. PDB dunia (UNCTAD, 2013; Bank Dunia 2014a,
2014b).
Berdasarkan data yang dikumpulkan oleh Bank Dunia, baik
ekonomi transisi dan berkembang mengalami ekspansi ekonomi yang
kuat dan berbasis luas pada tahun 2012. Tabel 2 menunjukkan bahwa
pada tahun 2012, PDB per kapita telah tumbuh secara global sebesar
1,2%; dengan pertumbuhan 4% di negara-negara berpenghasilan
rendah, pertumbuhan 3,8% di negara-negara berpenghasilan
menengah, dan pertumbuhan 1% di negara-negara berpenghasilan
tinggi (Bank Dunia, 2014c). Angka-angka ini menunjukkan semakin
besarnya peran ekonomi berpenghasilan rendah dan menengah dalam
membentuk ekonomi global.
S t
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276 Tinjauan Literatur


Bassam A. Albassam

Sementara sebagian besar studi teoritis mendukung gagasan


bahwa investasi asing mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara
tuan rumah, studi empiris tidak selalu menemukan hasil yang sama
(Colen et al., 2008; Nunnenkamp, 2001) ). Banyak faktor yang
berkontribusi dalam membentuk temuan studi empiris ini, seperti
tingkat perkembangan negara yang diteliti, sektor di mana investasi
asing dilakukan, dan metodologi yang digunakan dalam menganalisis
data (Alfaro, 2003; Cipollina et al., 2012). ). Menurut Colen et al.
(2008), “[T]argumen teoritis menyatakan bahwa FDI berkontribusi
terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi baik secara langsung melalui
akumulasi modal dan pengetahuan teknologi dan secara tidak
langsung melalui limpahan teknologi dan pengetahuan ke perusahaan
domestik di ekonomi tuan rumah. Namun , bukti empiris yang
mendukung teori-teori ini tidak langsung” (hal. 1). Bagian berikut akan
mengeksplorasi studi yang membahas hubungan antara investasi
asing, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan lapangan kerja.
FDI dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
FDI telah dikaitkan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pengembangan
sumber daya manusia di negara tuan rumah (Alfaro, 2003; Colen et al.,
2008; Tomohara & Takii, 2011). Kastrati (2013), dalam analisis
berbagai studi tentang hubungan antara FDI dan pertumbuhan
ekonomi dengan menggunakan metodologi yang berbeda dan
mencakup wilayah yang berbeda, menemukan bahwa tingkat
pembangunan dan keterbukaan ekonomi negara-negara tuan rumah
mengarahkan hubungan antara FDI dan pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Misalnya, sementara negara-negara berkembang mendapat manfaat
dari teknologi maju yang terkait dengan FDI, sistem pendidikan lanjutan
yang disediakan oleh negara-negara maju ternyata memberi negara-
negara ini keuntungan yang dibutuhkan dalam memaksimalkan
pemanfaatan investasi asing. Selain itu, Kastrati (2013) berpendapat
bahwa ukuran pasar dan “tingkat upah umum, tingkat pendidikan,
lingkungan kelembagaan, undang-undang perpajakan, dan lingkungan
makroekonomi dan politik secara keseluruhan” (hal. 17) adalah semua
faktor yang memainkan peran penting. peran dalam keputusan investor
asing untuk berinvestasi di negara tertentu . Cipollina dkk. (2012)
mempelajari hubungan antara saham FDI

The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies


FDI, Economic Growth and Employment: A Global Perspective
277

dan pertumbuhan nilai tambah di 14 sektor manufaktur di 22 negara


berkembang dan maju selama periode 1992-2004 . Studi ini mencakup
perusahaan yang sahamnya terdaftar di pasar saham negara tuan
rumah. Studi ini berpendapat bahwa sektor-sektor di mana FDI dibuat
mempengaruhi dampak FDI dalam mendorong pertumbuhan di negara-
negara tuan rumah (Alfaro, 2003). Oleh karena itu, penulis
berpendapat bahwa FDI di sektor teknologi maju memiliki pengaruh
yang lebih positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penyerapan
tenaga kerja di negara tuan rumah dibandingkan dengan FDI di sektor
lain. Menurut Cipollina et al. (2012), “[P]kebijakan yang mendorong
masuknya investasi asing dapat menjadi alat yang ampuh untuk
pertumbuhan ekonomi, terutama jika ditujukan pada sektor kegiatan
ekonomi yang paling berteknologi maju” (hal. 15).
Nunnenkamp (2001) mempelajari perbedaan antara negara
berkembang dan negara maju dalam menerima dan memanfaatkan
FDI. Meskipun menganggap FDI sebagai elemen kunci untuk
mencapai pembangunan berkelanjutan, Nunnenkamp berpendapat
bahwa asumsi bahwa FDI mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak
boleh diterima begitu saja, karena banyak faktor yang berkontribusi
dalam membentuk hubungan antara FDI dan pertumbuhan ekonomi,
seperti stabilitas politik dan keterbukaan ekonomi. di negara tuan
rumah. Nunnenkamp berpendapat bahwa “FDI memainkan peran yang
lebih penting di negara berkembang daripada di negara maju” (hal. 4)
dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dan bahwa ukuran pasar dan
liberalisasi peraturan yang mengatur FDI dan bisnis merupakan faktor
penting dalam keberhasilan tuan rumah negara dalam memanfaatkan
kehadiran investor asing.
FDI dan Ketenagakerjaan
Lebih sedikit studi empiris telah dilakukan untuk mempelajari
pengaruh FDI terhadap lapangan kerja dibandingkan dengan jumlah
studi tentang pengaruh FDI terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (Mucuk &
Demirsel, 2013; Hisarciklilar, Karakas, & Asici, 2010; Palat, 2011). ).
Setelah mengakui kurangnya studi yang membahas dampak FDI pada
pekerjaan di negara tuan rumah, Tomohara dan Takii, (2011) mencatat
bahwa "literatur sering menyoroti penciptaan lapangan kerja sebagai
manfaat FDI" (hal. 520). Selain itu, Tomohara dan Takii (2011) berpikir
bahwa faktor-faktor lain seperti sistem pendidikan danekonomi

Volume39, Nomor 3, Fall 2014


278 Bassam A. Albassam

strukturmemainkan peran penting dalam mengendalikan tingkat


pengangguran di negara-negara tuan rumah (Anyanwu 2012 ).
Mucuk dan Demirsel (2013) melakukan penelitian di tujuh negara
berkembang untuk mengeksplorasi hubungan antara FDI dan lapangan
kerja di negara tuan rumah. Mereka berpendapat bahwa “hanya ada
hubungan kausal dari FDI dengan pengangguran dalam jangka
panjang meskipun tidak ada hubungan antara variabel dalam jangka
pendek” (hal. 63). Juga, studi ini menemukan bahwa pengaruh FDI
terhadap tingkat pengangguran dipengaruhi oleh sektor-sektor di mana
FDI dibuat, dengan sektor teknologi yang paling banyak menciptakan
lapangan kerja bagi karyawan lokal. Akhirnya, mereka berpendapat
bahwa faktor-faktor lain, seperti aturan imigrasi dan kebijakan investasi
yang diadopsi oleh negara-negara tuan rumah, memainkan peran
penting dalam memungkinkan negara-negara tuan rumah untuk
mendapatkan keuntungan dari FDI melalui penciptaan lapangan kerja
dan pengurangan tingkat pengangguran yang sesuai.
Alkhathlan (2011), dalam studi teoritisnya tentang dampak FDI
terhadap ekonomi Saudi, berpendapat bahwa FDI tidak dapat
mengurangi pengangguran di kalangan Saudi tanpa perbaikan yang
sesuai dalam sistem pendidikan Saudi untuk menghasilkan pekerja
terampil yang dapat dipekerjakan oleh investor asing. Dia beralasan
bahwa tenaga kerja Saudi perlu mendapatkan keuntungan dari
teknologi canggih, keterampilan manajemen yang tinggi, dan proses
kerja canggih yang datang dengan investor asing yang beroperasi di
pasar Saudi. Menurut Alkhathlan (2011), "dengan melatih tenaga kerja
lokal dan meningkatkan keterampilan teknis dan manajerial, itu [FDI]
membantu dalam meningkatkan efisiensi dan produktivitas faktor dan
karenanya kekuatan kompetitif di pasar internasional" (hal. 137) .
Di India, sebuah studi oleh Chaudhuri dan Banerjee (2010)
menemukan dampak positif FDI dalam mengurangi tingkat
pengangguran dan meningkatkan upah rata-rata pekerja. Menurut
mereka, pemerintah India mengadopsi peraturan yang menarik investor
asing untuk berinvestasi di sektor-sektor tertentu yang menciptakan
lapangan kerja bagi karyawan lokal, seperti sektor teknologi; dengan
demikian, ekonomi India mendapat manfaat dari FDI dalam
menurunkan tingkat pengangguran.
Sebaliknya, dalam kasus Turki sebuah studi oleh Hisarciklilar et al.

Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies


FDI, Economic Growth and Employment: A Global Perspective
279

(2010) menemukan hubungan positif antara FDI dan tingkat


pengangguran di antara angkatan kerja Turki; yaitu, ketika jumlah FDI
meningkat, tingkat pengangguran naik. Dalam kasus Turki, penulis
menyalahkan sistem pendidikan yang tidak mendukung pasar tenaga
kerja dengan kualitas tinggi dan tenaga kerja terampil sehingga
memungkinkan karyawan lokal bersaing dengan karyawan nonlokal.
Penulis juga berpendapat bahwa pemerintah perlu mengarahkan
investasi asing ke sektor-sektor yang menghasilkan lapangan kerja,
seperti sektor teknologi, agar dapat memanfaatkan investasi asing
dengan lebih baik.
Setelah menganalisis investasi asing secara global, sebuah studi
oleh OECD (2002) berpendapat bahwa untuk memaksimalkan manfaat
FDI dan Perusahaan Multinasional (MNC), negara tuan rumah perlu
mengadopsi kebijakan berkualitas tinggi yang mendukung
transparansi, mengendalikan korupsi, dan mengatur bisnis. Juga,
negara tuan rumah harus berinvestasi dalam sistem pendidikan untuk
mempersiapkan karyawan lokal bersaing untuk pekerjaan yang
ditawarkan oleh investor asing. Studi tersebut menyimpulkan bahwa
agar negara tuan rumah dapat memaksimalkan manfaat dan
meminimalkan biaya FDI, “lingkungan yang mendukung bisnis yang
sehat adalah yang terpenting, yang mendorong investasi domestik
maupun asing, memberikan insentif untuk inovasi dan peningkatan
keterampilan dan berkontribusi pada iklim perusahaan yang kompetitif”
(OECD, 2002, hlm. 2).
Dari penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya, kita dapat berargumentasi
bahwa ada korelasi antara FDI dan lapangan kerja di negara-negara
tuan rumah; namun, arah dan kekuatan korelasi tersebut bervariasi
tergantung pada banyak faktor, seperti tingkat perkembangan negara
tuan rumah, tingkat keterampilan karyawan lokal dibandingkan dengan
karyawan nonlokal, sektor di mana penemu asing berinvestasi, dan
peraturan lokal yang mengatur pasar tenaga kerja (Samii & Teekasap,
2009; Palat, 2011). Juga, sebagian besar studi regional dan lokal
berpendapat bahwa keberadaan sistem pendidikan yang maju dan
penerapan kebijakan yang sehat yang mendorong persaingan antara
perusahaan lokal dan asing, mengendalikan korupsi, dan mendorong
investor asing untuk mentransfer teknologi baru dan mempekerjakan
karyawan lokal adalah yang utama. faktor-faktor yang berperan dalam
memaksimalkan manfaat kehadiran FDI dan MNCs (Anyanwu, 2012;
Colen et al., 2008). Menurut Colen et al. (2008),

Volume 39, Number 3, Fall 2014


280 Bassam A. Albassam

“Dengan demikian, menarik FDI bukanlah solusi sederhana untuk


meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Tetapi ketika pembuat kebijakan
berhasil mengatur kondisi yang tepat, FDI dapat memberikan kontribusi
penting bagi pembangunan manusia” (hal. 38).
Hasil Analisis
Data yang terkait dengan tujuan penelitian ini dan pertanyaan
penelitian pada dasarnya adalah data panel; Oleh karena itu, dilakukan
analisis model regresi data panel. Regresi data panel dapat
dikembangkan dan dipasang dalam model efek tetap, efek acak, atau
gabungan OLS. Algoritma berikut digunakan untuk memilih di antara
jenis model regresi ini.
Langkah 1: Sesuaikan regresi data panel efek tetap dan efek acak.
Langkah 2: Gunakan uji spesifikasi Durbin Wu Hausman untuk
menentukan perbedaan antara koefisien yang diestimasi oleh model
efek tetap dan acak.
Langkah 3: Jika perbedaan signifikan antara koefisien ditemukan
pada Langkah 2, gunakan model efek tetap. Jika tidak, gunakan model
efek acak dan lanjutkan ke Langkah 4.
Langkah 4: Gunakan regresi efek acak. Uji efek acak (Ho
[hipotesis nol]: Tidak ada efek acak) menggunakan uji Pengganda
Lagrange Brusch Pagan. Jika tes menunjukkan adanya efek acak,
gunakan regresi efek acak. Jika tidak, gunakan regresi OLS gabungan.
Terakhir, analisis data dilakukan dengan menggunakan aplikasi
perangkat lunak STATA versi 12.0 (StataCorp, 2011).
Pengujian pengaruh FDI pada PDB
Data tersedia untuk 214 negara. Namun, analisis menggunakan
data lengkap (yaitu, data tanpa pengamatan yang hilang) dari 189
negara. Tabel 3 melaporkan hasil model data panel efek tetap dan
acak dengan PDB per kapita sebagai variabel terikat dan FDI sebagai
variabel bebas. Uji spesifikasi Hausman ini melaporkan perbedaan
yang signifikan antara vektor koefisien diperkirakan dari dua model
ini(χ2 (1) = 23,00, p <0,001).

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FDI, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Ketenagakerjaan: Perspektif Global


283

Hasil di atas menunjukkan bahwa model efek tetap sesuai untuk


menilai hubungan antara FDI dan PDB per kapita. Untuk tujuan
penskalaan, analisis dilakukan dengan memperkecil nilai PDB sebesar
1 juta. Model efek tetap yang dipasang melaporkan keseluruhan R 2 =
0,1209; ini berarti bahwa 12,09% dari variabilitas PDB per kapita
dicatat oleh FDI. R ini2 ditemukan secara statistik signifikan pada
tingkat signifikansi 0,05 (F (1, 2416) = 93,24, p = <. 001). Hasil tes
untuk signifikansi hubungan antara FDI dan PDB per kapita
melaporkan positif diperkirakan koefisien slope(β = 0,0708, 95% CI
untuk β = (0,0564, 0,0852)) dengan nilai ap pelaporan tes terkait
kurang dari 0,05 . Oleh karena itu, disimpulkan bahwa FDI memiliki
pengaruh positif yang signifikan pada PDB per kapita(β = 0,0708, t
(2416) = 9,66, p = <0,001). Hal ini berarti bahwa peningkatan tingkat
FDI akan berpengaruh positif terhadap PDB per kapita. Hal ini sesuai
dengan hasil yang dilaporkan oleh banyak penelitian serupa lainnya
yang menyimpulkan bahwa FDI memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap
PDB per kapita suatu negara.
Pengujian pengaruh FDI terhadap pengangguran
Tabel 4 melaporkan hasil model data panel efek tetap dan acak
dengan tingkat pengangguran sebagai variabel dependen dan FDI
sebagai variabel independen. Uji spesifikasi Hausman ini melaporkan
perbedaan yang signifikan antara vektor koefisien diperkirakan dari dua
model ini(χ2 (1) = 1,28, p = 0,258).
Hasil di atas menunjukkan bahwa model efek acak sesuai untuk
menilai hubungan antara FDI dan pengangguran. Tes multiplier
Breusch-Pagan Lagrange untuk keacakan melaporkan hasil yang
signifikan(χ2 (1) = 3890,08, p = <0,001). Hal ini menegaskan bahwa
model efek acak adalah model yang paling tepat untuk menilai
hubungan antara FDI dan pengangguran.
Model efek acak yang dipasang melaporkan keseluruhan R 2 =
0,0203, yang berarti bahwa 2,03% dari variabilitas pengangguran
dicatat oleh FDI. Meskipun ukuran efek ini relatif kecil, tes untuk
signifikansinya melaporkan bahwa model dipasang keseluruhan secara
statistik signifikan pada tingkat signifikansi 0,05(χ2 (1) = 11,77, p = <.
001). Hasil tes untuk signifikansi dari koefisien estimasi

Volume39, Nomor 3, Fall 2014


284 Bassam A. Albassam

mencerminkan hubungan antara FDI dan pengangguran melaporkan


koefisien kemiringan negatif(β = -0,000013, 95% CI untuk β =
( -.000021, - .00000057)), dengan nilai ap pelaporan pengujian terkait
kurang dari 0,05. Oleh karena itu, dapat disimpulkan bahwa FDI dan
pengangguran berhubungan negatif secara signifikan (Z = -3,43, p =
<.01). Artinya, peningkatan tingkat FDI akan berpengaruh positif dalam
mengurangi pengangguran atau setidaknya mengendalikan
peningkatan tingkat pengangguran. Hasil ini konsisten dengan hasil
yang dilaporkan oleh banyak penelitian serupa lainnya yang
menyimpulkan bahwa FDI memiliki pengaruh positif dalam
mengendalikan tingkat pengangguran.
Kesimpulan
Sementara, investasi asing telah dicari oleh banyak negara, tidak
ada konsensus mengenai dampak FDI terhadap perekonomian negara
tuan rumah (seperti yang akan kita lihat di bawah). Additionally,
attracting foreign investments, through the adoption of new regulations,
economic openness, and other government actions, has translated into
a record high in international trade and across-board merchandise in
2012.
Although most theoretical studies support the positive impact of
FDIs on economic growth and human development, empirical studies
do not completely agree with such results. Many factors contribute in
shaping the relationship between foreign investments and economic
development, such as political stability, economic openness, the
sectors in which FDIs are made, and the level of development of the
host country.
The current study explores the impact of FDI inflows on economic
growth and employments globally from 1999-2012. The results of the
study agreed with the majority of other studies in concluding that FDI
has a positive influence on economic growth. Also, the study concludes
that FDI contributes in governments' efforts to reduce or at least control
unemployment rates. That being said, it is important to recognize the
differences among countries in benefiting from foreign investors'
presence. Thus, studying a specific region or economy is a good way to
have better understanding of the impact of FDI on economic
development, since different countries

The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies


FDI, Economic Growth and Employment: A Global Perspective
285

have different economic and cultural structures that might influence the
relationship between FDI and economic development.

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Volume 39, Number 3, Fall 2014
290

Financial Literacy Interventions:


Evaluating the Impact and Scope of Financial Literacy
Programs on Savings, Retirement, and Investment
Percy Austin
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science
Elizabeth Arnott-Hill ∗

Department of Psychology, Chicago State University

This article provides a critical analysis of current and past studies


that have investigated the impact of financial education interventions
on consumer financial behavior and financial literacy. The authors
consider how financial literacy is measured and examine how well the
existing literature addresses whether financial education improves
financial literacy or personal financial outcomes or behaviors. We
conclude that, taken together, the literature does not succeed in
establishing a causal link between financial interventions and the
modification of an individual's spending, saving or investing behavior.
The literature does, however, establish a positive correlation between
financial interventions and increased financial literacy. Moreover, the
existing literature suggests that financial literacy is essential to making
optimal financial decisions

Key Words: Retirement; Retirement planning; Consumer financial literacy;


Financial planning: Financial interventions; Measuring financial literacy;
Consumer financial behavior.

Individuals are taking responsibility for a growing number of


financial decisions. Arguably, the most important is preparation for
retirement. In this new environment, where individuals have greater
responsibility for determining their own retirement income, factors such
as general financial knowledge, an understanding of the retirement
savings process, and recognition of the need for adequate savings
have become critical to successfully achieving one's retirement
objectives.
The financial environment that consumers face today has

Address for correspondence: Elizabeth Arnott-Hill <earnott@csu.edu>

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become dramatically more complicated than that of any previous


generation (Lusardi 2009). Individuals are offered more borrowing
options such as payday loans, debt consolidation loans, and high-
interest-rate credit cards. Evidence from several studies suggests that
financial illiteracy is widespread (Lusardi 2006), particularly among
vulnerable demographic groups (ie, less educated, low-income,
women, and minorities). This lack of financial knowledge is a serious
cause for concern given that financial literacy is believed to be an
important predictor of retirement planning and other important financial
decisions. Creating financial literacy interventions is an obvious and
common sense response to the increased complexity of the financial
world. Thus the purpose of this paper is to compare the strengths of
findings across several studies with different designs and different kinds
of statistical analyses, all exploring the same core question: What is the
connection between financial literacy and the choices that people make
about their finances? Additionally, the purpose of this paper is to
evaluate the impact and scope of financial literacy and financial literacy
programs on savings, retirement, and investments. Moreover, we seek
to specifically examine the link between financial literacy and planning
and behavioral changes among minority groups who have participated
in financial literacy interventions.
The question of whether minorities, in particular African Americans
and Hispanics, are financially prepared for retirement has been
examined widely. Previous studies examining the financial position of
households have highlighted the fact that the wealth holdings of
African-Americans and Hispanics are very low (Hurst, Luoh and
Stafford, 1998). Smith (1995) and Lusardi (1999, 2000) further
emphasized that many African Americans and Hispanics arrive at
retirement with little wealth. Other studies, which have examined
portfolio choice or specific assets such as housing, stocks, IRAs and
401(k) s, have further documented that African Americans and
Hispanics do not hold many of the assets commonly present in White
household

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292 Percy Austin and Elizabeth Arnott-Hill

portfolios. For example, Haliassos and Bertaut (1995) found that


minorities were much less likely to hold stocks than White households,
and this remains the case even after accounting for a large set of
household and industry characteristics, including income and wealth.
Similarly, Charles and Hurst (2002) found that African Americans are
much less likely to own a home or apply for a mortgage than Whites.
There are many reasons for this diversity in wealth accumulation.
For example, African Americans and Hispanics often have lower
educational attainment, lower income, and a greater experience of
negative life events. In addition, African Americans and Hispanics also
have been shown to possess lower financial literacy than Whites, which
is correlated with poor saving and investment behavior (Hilgert,
Hogarth and Beverly, 2003; Hogarth and Hilgerth, 2002). The authors
found that financial literacy was directly correlated with financial
behaviors such as spending properly, saving properly and investing
properly for one's retirement. Consequently, lack of financial knowledge
in minority communities may contribute to increased debt and bad
financial practices; thus, undermining financial well-being in old age.
As awareness of the general population's lack of financial
knowledge has increased, many programs have been established to
provide various types of financial interventions. Muske & Winter (1999)
used one-on-one interviews and one-on-one counseling with the self-
designated family financial manager to develop a framework to explain
and describe the daily cash flow management processes of families.
Clark & Ambrosio (2003) utilized financial education seminars and
workshops presented by the consulting services division of TIAA-CREF
to influence workers to reconsider their retirement goals and alter their
saving behavior. Hershfield, Goldstein, Sharpe, Fox, Yeykelis,
Carstensen, Bailenson (2011) utilized an interactive web-based
program to demonstrate a new kind of intervention in which people can
be encouraged to make more future-oriented choices

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by having them interact with age-progressed renderings of their own


likenesses. The authors showed that individuals who interacted with
their virtual future selves exhibited an increased tendency to accept
later monetary rewards over immediate ones. Additionally, the Dodd-
Frank Act - Section 1013(d)(1) - mandated establishment of an Office
of Financial Education to be responsible for developing and
implementing initiatives intended to educate and empower consumers
to make better informed financial decisions (The Consumer Finance
Protection Bureau Annual Report, 2014). The Act also created offices
to develop financial education and policy initiatives to support the
financial well-being of vulnerable segments of the consumer population
such as service members, students, older Americans, and traditionally
underserved consumers.
Some studies have found that “nudges” were more effective than
more general financial education at improving financial decision
making (Thaler & Benartzi, 2004). When referring to “nudges” (Pathak,
Holmes & Zimmerman, 2011), the authors drew on insights from
behavioral economics and suggest that mechanisms that help
individuals to overcome “the last mile challenge” to saving might be
more advantageous than interventions that attempt to bring someone
from not wanting to save all the way to savings in one attempt. One of
their proposed nudges included reminders to save. They believed
reminders could bring saving to the top of an individual's mind, serving
as a continual flag for why the individual wanted to save in the first
place. One increasingly prevalent pro-saving intervention is to increase
access to basic formal saving accounts. Recent evidence supports the
hypothesis that efforts to expand access to basic accounts can have
large, positive effects on household saving, income, and wellbeing
(Burgess & Pande, 2005).
Yet other studies illustrated that a large percentage of individuals
who participated in financial intervention programs did not have any
discernible behavioral changes once the

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program ended. Some financial interventions improve financial literacy,


but not financial behavior (Mandell, 2009); others lead to improved
behavior and outcomes without improving financial literacy (Fernandes,
2014); and still others do not appear to be effective at all (Gale &
Levine, 2010). Taken together, the literature does not succeed in
establishing a clear or definitive answer to the question of whether
financial interventions modified an individual's spending, savings, or
investing behavior. However, the literature does convincingly make the
case that financial literacy is essential to making optimal financial,
investment, and retirement decisions. According to Hogarth (2003),
most individuals seem to have extremely limited knowledge of financial
markets, the level of risk associated with specific assets, and how
much they need to save to achieve a retirement income goal.
Therefore, the need for financial interventions to improve the level of
financial literacy of individuals is an important policy issue facing our
society.
Defining Financial Literacy
The terms financial literacy, financial education, and financial
knowledge have been used interchangeably in recent research. Current
studies indicate that consumers have very low levels of financial
literacy. In fact, a study of young people by Lusardi and Mitchell (2010)
found that only a small fraction of individuals were able to demonstrate
competency in different concepts like interest rates, inflation, or risk
diversification. Moreover, Lusardi and Mitchell (2006) stated that
“financial illiteracy is widespread: the young and older people in the
United States and other countries appear woefully under informed
about basic financial computations, with serious implications for saving,
retirement planning, mortgages, and other decisions (pg. 18).” Since
the issue is complex, it is important to establish a consistent definition
of financial literacy. Various definitions have been proposed. According
to Hogarth (2006), the consistent themes running through various
definitions of financial education and financial literacy include the set of

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skills and knowledge that allows an individual to make informed and


effective decisions with all of their financial resources. Moreover, Gale
and Levine's (2010) definition includes the ability to make informed
judgments and effective decisions regarding the use and management
of money and wealth. Remund (2010) reviewed over one hundred
resources on financial literacy and proposed a conceptual and
operational definition of financial literacy as a “measure of the degree to
which one understands key financial concepts and possesses the
ability to manage personal finances throughout the lifecycle (pg. 8).” To
further operationalize this definition, Remund (2010) defined the
management of personal finances as budgeting, saving, borrowing and
investing. In addition, The National Financial Educators Council (2013)
defined financial literacy as having the skills and knowledge on financial
matters to confidently take effective action that best fulfills an
individual's personal, family and global community goals. As an
individual's emotional state is often tied to how much money that
individual has at his or her disposal, the NFEC suggested that a
psychological component to the working definition is critical. Another
unique portion of the NFECs' definition is that it includes a reference to
a larger impact than just one's own personal financial situation. “Global
community goals” correlate with the NFECs' financial education
standards that include social enterprise. The Government
Accountability Office (2010) defined financial literacy as the ability to
make informed judgments and to take effective actions regarding the
current and future use and management of money. It includes the
ability to understand financial choices, plan for the future, spend wisely,
and manage the challenges associated with life events such as a job
loss, saving for retirement, or paying for a child's education. Still others,
such as those provided by Lusardi (2006), emphasize a judgment and
decision-making aspect of financial literacy.
The most common aspect of the definition of financial literacy is
knowledge, with some definitions merely requiring

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familiarity (arguably a limited form of knowledge). One of the striking


things about the literature is that financial literacy has been variably
defined as a specific form of knowledge, the skills to apply that
knowledge, perceived knowledge, good financial behavior, and even
financial experiences. Because there exist many conceptual definitions
of financial literacy, the methods used to measure financial literacy also
vary quite substantially.
Measuring Financial Literacy
Early studies to measure adult financial literacy were conducted
during the 1990s by private firms (CFA/AMEX, 1991; EBRI, 1995;
KPMG, 1996; PSRA, 1996, 1997; Oppenheimer Funds/Girls Inc., 1997;
Vanguard Group/Money Magazine, 1997). These studies utilized
surveys that consisted of a small number of questions covering material
specific to the company's interests (Volpe, Chen, and Liu, 2006). In
addition, performance tests and self-report methods have been
employed to measure financial literacy (Hung, 2009; Hastings, 2013),
The performance tests were primarily knowledge-based, reflecting the
conceptual definitions. One of the more comprehensive performance
tests is the Jumpstart Financial Literacy Survey, which was
administered to randomly selected high school seniors every two years
from 1997 to 2006. The exam included 31 questions on income, money
management, saving and investment, and spending and credit. It was
intended to capture financial competence in a broad set of areas.
Lusardi & Mitchell (2006, 2008), Volpe, Kotek, & Chen (2002), and
Tufano (2008) also used performance tests to measure the financial
knowledge of their program participants. In particular, these tests
included questions that evaluated whether respondents displayed
knowledge of fundamental economic concepts for saving decisions, as
well as whether they possessed competence with basic financial
numeracy. Moreover, the tests evaluated respondents' knowledge of
risk diversification, a crucial element of an informed investment
decision.
Some researchers have employed self-report methods, in

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which the respondent gauges his or her own financial literacy or


financial confidence. Actual and perceived knowledge are often
correlated, but this correlation is often moderate at best, and it varies
widely. For example, Agnew and Szykman (2005) found correlations
between actual and perceived financial knowledge that ranged from .10
to .78 across demographic groups. Similar variations have been
documented in non-financial knowledge domains (eg, Alba &
Hutchinson, 2000). Given the inherent challenges in measuring
financial literacy (Palmer, 2014; Collins & Holden 2014,), measuring the
effects of financial education on wealth, saving behaviors, investing
behaviors, and spending behaviors has proven to be a difficult task.
What initiatives exist?
If financial illiteracy is correlated with undesirable financial
behaviors, then it would seem logical that increasing financial literacy
could improve consumer welfare. Over the past decades, an array of
financial interventions has been introduced in the United States for this
purpose. These programs range from employer-provided seminars on
retirement planning, to state
mandated personal finance classes in public schools, to one-on one
mortgage counseling. Apakah program-program ini efektif? If so, which
types of programs are more effective? What has been done to curb
undesired behaviors, such as bad investments and inadequate
savings?
As awareness of the general population's lack of financial
knowledge has increased, many organizations have begun to provide
various types of financial education. Several methods have been
utilized to increase financial awareness and change behaviors. Most of
the programs directly address saving behavior (Lusardi & Mitchell
2006), investment behavior, or borrowing and retirement preparedness
(Clark, 2003), but some are designed to influence behaviors that
indirectly affected saving, such as minimizing credit card fees or
balancing a checkbook (Hogarth, 2003).
Generally, financial literacy interventions can be classified

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under three main categories. The first category is considered an


individual methodology. This method consists of one-on-one
counseling, for example telephone advising, or computer or internet
learning. Muske & Winter (1999) used one-on-one counseling with a
self-designated family financial manager to develop a framework to
explain and describe the daily cash flow management processes of
families as well as the family's cash management practices. They found
that all the respondents admitted that they made only limited
preparations for financial catastrophes and rarely developed specific
long-term goals. Additionally, the new Consumer Finance Protection
Bureau (CFPB Annual Report, 2014) is reaching consumers through
various collaborative initiatives that leverage existing public, private,
and non-profit networks and efforts. Here they provide consumers with
one-on-one actionable financial counseling and tools at specific
important moments in their financial lives, and opportunities to develop
the skills to navigate the financial marketplace and manage their
financial lives effectively.
The second category is group methodology. This method consists
of seminars or presentations, training workshops, workshop series, or
courses offered through formal educational institutions. Clark &
Ambrosio (2003) discussed the financial education seminars and
workshops presented by the consulting services division of TIAA-
CREF. These training seminars were aimed at providing program
participants with the necessary information to help them make more
informed financial decisions. In addition, Loyola University offers Money
Matters Workshops and credit-based courses for prospective and
current students. In the United Kingdom, the Personal Finance
Education Group (pfeg), a collaborative group of government, business
and educators, has developed educational material programs for
teachers to use in secondary schools, with two primary aims. The first
aim is to ensure school leavers have adequate financial skills and the
confidence to use them. The second aim is to ensure the teachers have
the appropriate level

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of skills, knowledge and confidence to teach the subject. The pilot


program has been successful in having financial literacy integrated into
the secondary school curriculum.
The third category uses mass education implemented via the
internet. This consists of web-based programs, interactive CD
programs, TV programs, newsletters, or papers. Some programs, such
as the one developed by Hershfield et al. (2011), encourage people to
make more future-oriented choices by having them interact, as we have
seen, with age-progressed photos of themselves. The Center for Debt
Management is another online resource available that offers
assistance, financial information, and resources related to debt and
money management. Some of the main features of the site include
family debt management assistance, credit counseling services, a
financial aid center, a legal resource center, information about credit
repair, help with credit and financing, and financial and income
resource centers. Additionally, The Dollar Stretcher is another free
weekly newsletter and website dedicated to family finances. This
particular resource explores different ways to increase family income
without reducing lifestyle. Some of the major topics covered in the
articles include cash management, credit card and credit repair, debt,
insurance, mortgages, IRAs, and budgeting. Moreover, the new
Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (CFPB) has developed a broad
range of education initiatives to help consumers. The CFPB engages
consumers directly through their interactive web-based tool, which was
launched in March of 2013 (CFPB Annual Report, 2014). They utilize
this online tool to provide answers to over 1,000 questions about
financial products and services. Additionally, the new CFPB utilizes
social media and a digital library of consumer information. The
resources answer questions on topics including mortgages, credit
cards, savings, retirement, and how to fix an error in a credit report.
Lastly, the Financial Times' Your Money is another free interactive
service designed to help consumers manage and maximize their
money. This resource
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concentrates on personal finance issues relevant to everyone. It also


offers advice on home buying, retirement, education, travel, saving
money, creating wealth, tax, insurance, and loans.
Recently, state and federal governments have begun to offer
financial literacy courses and to distribute financial information. For
example, the US government established a Financial Literacy and
Education Commission which was required by law to undertake certain
activities, including running a website and a toll-free number to help
disseminate financial literacy information, preparing and circulating
financial literacy materials, and promoting partnership activities
(www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/financial-institution).
Additionally, the Money Smart program, run by the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation, has targeted adult education, especially those
adults outside the financial mainstream (www.fdic.gov/consumers). This
program operates by making training modules available to banks and
other organizations for use in financial education workshops on
subjects such as basic banking, home loans, and credit cards. The
Consumer Finance Protection Bureau CFPB is also focusing on helping
consumers build the skills to plan ahead. For example, their “Paying for
College” set of tools is designed to help students and their families
compare what their college costs will be in the future as they decide
where to pursue educational goals. In addition, their “Owning a Home”
tool is designed to help consumers shop for a mortgage loan by
assisting them in understanding what mortgages are available to them
and making mortgage comparisons. The CFPB also has a Money
Smart for Older Adults curriculum. The curriculum is developed with the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and it includes resources to
help people prevent financial exploitation and prepare financially for
unexpected life events such as medical emergencies and unexpected
deaths (CFPB Annual Report, 2014).
Several regional Federal Reserve Banks have specific literacy
initiatives. For example, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

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301

promotes financial literacy throughout its district by holding conferences


and workshops for teachers, conducting tours for high school, college,
and community groups, sponsoring competitions to increase
understanding of the Federal Reserve's role in the economy, and
producing publications about the banking system and the national
economy. The Chicago Area Project Financial Education program is a
hands-on interactive program that teaches the participant how to be a
better consumer. Money Smart Week, created by the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago along with members of its Money Smart Advisory
Council, is a week-long event that helps consumers better manage
their finances and provide awareness of financial education programs
available on topics such as budgeting and using credit wisely. The
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank also makes available numerous
publications on personal finance and education, and offers a program
called “The Fed Challenge” to both high school and college students.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond promotes economic and
financial education for teachers, students and the general public
through programs and partnerships. In addition, The Fed Experience
exhibit, located at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, is open to
the public. In the exhibit, visitors explore the power of their decisions on
their quality of life, the impact of choices on the economy over time,
and the role of the Federal Reserve in the economy.
Do Financial Literacy Initiatives Work?
An Examination of Current Literature
Do financial education and financial literacy programs work? Are
these programs beneficial to individuals who participate in them?
Hathaway and Khatiwada (2008) reviewed results from various types of
financial literacy interventions and concluded that current interventions
cannot be determined to be effective. The types of programs studied
include homeownership counseling, credit card counseling, school-
based financial education courses, and workplace-based financial
courses.

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Overall, the results are mixed. Some programs appear to be associated


with better financial behavior and outcomes overall, while others seem
to achieve better results for specifically targeted financial products or
audiences. Some findings seem to contradict others, and some
programs look as though they have very little or no impact at all.
However, Hilgert, Hogarth, and Beverly (2003) provided some
support for a link between financial knowledge and better financial
practices. The authors used monthly survey data from the University of
Michigan's Surveys of Consumers to construct indexes that represent
the level of households' participation in each of four financial
management practices: cash flow management, credit management,
saving, and investment. The index values reflected participation rates
by individual households in activities attached to each of the four
financial management practices. For example, if a household
participated in four of five activities related to credit management, the
index value would be 80 (4/5 = 80%). The index values across
households were highest for cash flow management and lowest for
investment. Credit management ranked second while saving came in
third. Having established household financial behavior in the first step,
the authors next utilized results from a quiz taken along with the
households' responses in the Surveys of Consumers to measure a
household's “knowledge” of four different financial management
practices: credit management, saving, investment, and mortgages.
Since three of these practices overlap with measures taken during the
first half of their analysis, the authors were able to run correlations
between behaviors and knowledge. The authors concluded that greater
knowledge about credit, saving, and investment practices was
correlated with the corresponding index scores behaviors.
Courchane and Zorn (2005) sought to go beyond basic correlations
between knowledge and behavior by attempting to find a causal link.
The authors linked financial knowledge to financial behavior, and then
linked financial behavior to credit

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303

outcomes. The data they collected came from an extensive consumer


credit survey, comprehensive demographic data sets held by private
marketing firms, and individual credit profiles from Experian. The
authors then used a three-step recursive model regression analysis to
establish these links. In the first step, the authors estimated two
separate regression equations. The results for both equations indicated
significantly positive associations between financial knowledge and
each of the following: financial experiences, formal educational
attainment, presence of financial education in school, income and
wealth, experience using credit cards, and monthly credit card
payments. In the second step, the authors estimated behaviors as a
function of financial knowledge and additional factors that affect
financial behavior. Overwhelmingly, the most important determinant of
financial self-control was knowledge. Psychological factors also had an
effect, though smaller. Positive feelings (ie fewer concerns about
money) had a large and positive relationship to financial behavior.
Income-related effects were also positive and significant; however, the
presence of a financial “safety net” and income relative to parents
mattered more than actual income or wealth. In the third and final step,
the authors estimated credit outcomes as a function of financial
behavior and other factors that affect credit outcomes. Here the authors
found no additional impact of literacy on credit outcomes beyond those
already accounted for, meaning that literacy impacts credit outcomes
indirectly through financial behavior. In addition, they found significant
effects from demographic factors (ie, age, number of children, gender)
-- in particular, race. Overall, the authors found that data was consistent
with the assumptions made by most financial education program
administrators – that there exists a significant, positive causal link that
runs from financial knowledge to behavior to outcomes.
The results for school-based initiatives also appear to have met
some success, though limited. While savings rates and financial
planning did show improvement as a result of

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participation in several programs, and students' self assessments were


positive, the causal impact is unclear. According to Bernheim, Garret,
and Maki (2001), between 1957 and 1985, 29 states adopted
legislation mandating some form of financial education in secondary
schools. The authors used a survey from adults between the age of 30
and 49 to study the impact of the mandated consumer education during
high school on savings behavior later in life. States that did not have
the mandated consumer education program in high schools were used
as a baseline. The authors found that, compared to adults in states
without these mandated programs, adults in states with such programs
had increased rates of savings and wealth accumulation on average
during their adult lives.
Gartner and Todd (2005) analyzed a randomized study conducted
by the Saint Paul Foundation's Credit Card Project that attempted to
show whether online credit education led to responsible behavior
among first-year college students. Although they did find that
completion of the program correlated with more responsible behavior,
the change in behavior between the control and experimental groups
was not statistically significant. In other words, this study was unable to
find evidence for the effectiveness of online financial education.
Similar to school-based counseling programs, the impact of
financial education programs in the workplace is unclear. According to
Muller (2002), retirement education increased the probability that
persons under the age of 40 will save for their retirement account by
27%, but financially vulnerable groups did not show any increase. In
contrast, Lusardi (2003) found that retirement education increased
liquid wealth (savings) by approximately 18% and that most of this
impact was driven by those at the bottom of the income distribution.
The bottom quartile benefited the most from the financial education, as
liquid wealth for this group increased by 70%. Furthermore, the author
accounted for the presence of pension and Social Security wealth to
show that the effect of retirement education

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on household wealth was still significant when these factors were
controlled.
Given that the levels of financial literacy in the United States are
low, policymakers and government officials are concerned because of
the potential implications of financial illiteracy on economic behavior. As
illustrated by a study by Hogarth, Anguelov, and Lee (2005), poorly
educated consumers are disproportionately represented among the
“unbanked,” those lacking any kind of transaction account. Hasting and
Mitchell (2010) concluded that, for the population of individuals over the
age of 50, those who are more financially knowledgeable were also
much more likely to have thought about retirement. Other authors have
also confirmed the positive association between knowledge and
financial behavior. For example, Calvert, Campbell, and Sodini (2005)
found that more financially sophisticated households were less likely to
be risk averse and to invest more efficiently. Kimball and Shumway
(2006) reported a large positive correlation between financial
sophistication and portfolio choice. Moreover, Chang and Hanna (1992)
linked consumer financial knowledge or financial literacy with
responsible financial behavior. The authors found that increased levels
of financial information resulted in more-efficient decisions. Similarly,
Perry and Morris (2005) found that consumers with higher levels of
financial knowledge were more likely to budget, save, and plan for the
future.
The Elements of an Effective Intervention
What would an effective financial literacy intervention look like?
According to Fox, Bartholomae and Lee (2005), an adaptable
framework should be defined that will accommodate all types of
financial intervention programs The authors provide one such
framework, which was tested in the Money-Minded intervention.
Money-Minded is a suite of financial education resources, developed to
help adults, particularly those of low
income, to build their financial skills, knowledge and confidence. The
authors describe five major steps they believe should be

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included when evaluating financial education programs: pre


implementation (and needs assessment), accountability, program
clarification, progress towards objectives, program impact. In the pre-
implementation stage, the target group should be identified, the needs
assessed, and goals specified. The accountability stage involves the
collection of information on education and services provided, program
cost, and basic information on program participants. The objective here
should be to determine who has been reached by the program and in
what way; that is, whether the population in need is the population
actually served. The program clarification stage should help the
program planners review an ongoing program's goals and objectives
and assess whether these goals and objectives should be revised.
Next, the progress- toward-objectives stage should involve obtaining
objective measures of the impact of the program on the participants,
and how those impacts relate to program goals. Finally, the program
impact stage should involve an experimental approach to assess both
the short-term and long-term effects of the program. Information
collected in the previous stage (progress towards objectives) helps
assess whether there were long-term and short-term effects. According
to the authors, there was scarce evidence of evaluation of financial
literacy programs at the final stage (program impact) because most
financial education programs do not include impact evaluation as a
component of their program design.
Discussion
In recent years, the financial life of the typical American family has
become increasingly complex. For the past decade, individuals,
including business owners, investors, politicians, educators and the
federal government, have researched the issue of financial literacy.
This increased concern has been particularly focused on the necessity
of individuals saving for retirement. In addition, the increased
complexity of financial products and services has made it more
important but also more difficult to make informed investment and
saving decisions. According to

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Glaser and Walther (2013), although the financial literacy movement


has gained momentum, there remains little reliable, conclusive
research about whether financial literacy campaigns and financial
literacy initiatives or programs work (ie whether they result in sustained
changes in behavior and improved financial outcomes). Changing an
individual's financial behavior and not just increasing an individual's
financial knowledge is essential for a person to reach financial goals
and achieve financial well being. Research indicates that individuals
with below average levels of financial literacy or extremely low levels of
financial literacy suffer from that lack of knowledge at every stage of
their lives (Hastings, 2012). Additionally, people who have a lower
degree of financial literacy tend to borrow more, accumulate less
wealth, and pay more in fees related to financial products (Hastings,
2012). According to Madrian and Skimmyhorn (2012), these individuals
are far less likely to invest. Moreover they are more likely to experience
difficulty with debt, and less likely to know the terms of their mortgages
and other loans. The price of this lack of financial awareness is
unfortunately high. Individuals incur avoidable charges and fees from
things like making late credit card payments or paying only the
minimum amount due, overspending their credit limit, and using cash
advances.
When financial decisions have consequences beyond the
immediate future, individuals' economic success may depend on an
individual's financial literacy. While there are some who disagree, most
researchers believe that improving financial literacy and increasing
financial education is not only a necessity for our country and the world,
it is absolutely vital (Lusardi, (2009). There is hope that, with well-
designed interventions that work to improve financial literacy,
researchers might bring about positive impacts on the economy and
increase the financial health of the society. Behavior modification is
also important as it is required to address major modern cultural issues
such as people qualifying for loans they simply cannot afford, having
low

Volume 39, Number 3, Fall 2014


308 Percy Austin and Elizabeth Arnott-Hill

credit scores, and having high interest rates. A key point to remember
is that financial literacy must be a collective effort. It is unfair and
unrealistic to expect that state programs, government programs, or
employee seminars alone can or should shoulder the burden of
improving financial literacy for everyone.
Future Directions
Given these findings, one clear direction for future research would
be to undertake more robust evaluation methodologies that rigorously
separate the opportunity to receive financial education and improve
financial literacy from observable and unobservable household
characteristics. In particular, studies adopting an experimental design
can help isolate the specific effects of financial literacy interventions
and mitigate many of the biases that cloud interpretation of the
effectiveness of these programs. Furthermore the need to inform the
average consumer about predatory practices of financial institutions
and other corporations is vital. According to 2010 Census data, 37
million people in the United States speak Spanish as their primary
language at home (United States Census Bureau, 2010). Recognizing
the need for Spanish language resources, interventions or programs
should be tailored to financial decision-making circumstances,
challenges, and opportunities for specific populations, including service
members, veterans, students, older Americans, lower-income and other
economically vulnerable Americans is an important item that needs
exploration (Consumer Finance Protection Bureau Annual Report,
2014). Interventions like CFPB en Español, which is a website that
provides Spanish-speaking consumers a central point of access to the
Bureau's most-used consumer resources available in Spanish, are
critical.

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Financial Literacy Interventions: Savings, Retirement, and Investment
309

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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the US Department of Education
for their generous support of the Minority Retirement Security Center
(MRSC) at Chicago State University. In addition, we would like to
thank the other faculty mentors in the MRSC, Dr. Aref Hervani and
Dr. Philip Aka, for their expertise and feedback.
The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies
315

Demographic Change and the Economics


of an Aging Society:
Key Findings on the Theoretical Positioning of
Economics of Aging in Science
Norbert H. Meiners*
FHWT University of Applied Sciences Vechta,
Germany Carla da Silva Santana
University of Sao Paulo, Brazil

The world population is getting older and no one knows exactly


what life will be like in tomorrow´s aging societies. The demographic
change can be understood as a revolution – a revolution also for
economy because aging societies will change the world of businesses
and consumers across the globe. It is a fact that there is a strong
interaction between demographic change and economy, because
people´s economic behaviour varies at different stages of life, and
changes in a country´s age structure can have significant effects on its
economic performance. Economics of aging (synonym: economics of
the elderly, economics of old age) is a subcategory of population
economics (also: demographic economics), and deals with the
economic aspects of societal aging. It views itself as one of the types
of special economics – similar to established “special economics”
such as health economics and education economics. At the same
time, it is a fairly new field of research and area of activity within
gerontology and despite this, there are to date, only very few
references in the scientific literature as to the economics of aging.
Following the object of investigation, this paper is based on the
following leading research question: How can economics of aging be
positioned theoretically in science? In this paper a narrative-
systematic method is used to review the scientific literature in four
English and German language databases (as of March 2014), in order
to apply a comparative analysis. This research reveals that economics
of aging shows minimal positioning in the scientific literature. There
are, however, promising attempts at positioning, which need to be
extended and developed. Here, economics of aging should break free
from a primarily socio
economic perspective to rather focus on other economics sectors.
*
Address for correspondence: meiners@fhwt.de.

Volume 39, Number 3, Fall 2014


316
Norbert H. Meiners and Carla da Silva Santana

The limited theoretical positioning and the missing conceptual


foundation of economics of aging constitute limits to the systematic
further development of this research area and area of action. The aim
here is to expand already existing approaches and to systematically
develop them further in order to unlock the economic potential of the
demographic development.
Key Words: Demographic change; Economics of aging; Ekonomi;
Gerontology; Penuaan.

Introduction
There is a growing awareness around the world that the median
age of the world´s population is getting higher and higher. In 2000,
approximately 600 million people globally were 60 years and older. And
in 2025, this number will have doubled to approximately 1.2 billion
people. By 2050, it is estimated that there may be more than 2 billion
people aged 60 and over. This would mean that roughly every fifth
person will be the world 60 years or older (WHO, 2010; Michaels,
2003). To draw attention to the challenge of a population ever
increasing in age, the UN General Meeting even announced 1999 as
the “International Year of Seniors” (UNO, 1999).
It is to be expected that Europe will be most affected by this
significant process of aging (Wodok, 2004; Heigl and Mai, 1998). In
Europe the proportion of older people will grow from 20 percent in 1998
to 35 percent in 2050. Thus, every third person will be more than 60
years old (UNO, 1999). Particularly the developing and emerging
nations in Eastern European will have a higher proportion of older
people (Meyer-Hentschel, 2008; Kohlbacher and Herstatt, 2008; Boyer
King, 2004). But in Australia, Russia, and many other countries, aging
societies will also be perceivable. For instance, the proportion of the
Australian population aged 65 and over will nearly double by the year
2020 (ABC Net, 1999). The aging of its inhabitants is even more
extreme in Japan (TNS/Commerzbank, 2009; Gassmann and
Reepmeyer, 2006; Conrad and Gerling, 2004), where in 2010 those
age 50 and over will make up approximately 50 percent of the overall
population. And the proportion of people age 65 and over will increase
from 18.5 percent to 35.6 percent in 2050. In 2015, the

The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies


Demographic Change and the Economics of an Aging Society
317

Japanese population will have an average age of 46.4 years (in 2013:
45.8 years). Around five percent of the Japanese population will then
be more than 100 years old (Kohlbacher and Herstatt, 2008; Wicher,
2007; Conrad and Gerling, 2005).
After Japan, Germany already has the second oldest population
globally (WHO, 2010; Wicher, 2007). In 2013, the average age of the
German population is 45.7 years (Statista, 2013). Since Germany's
population is not growing, the aging process is more dramatic than in
other countries of the world (Klingholz et al., 2006; Wodok, 2004;
Gaede, 2004). Whereas around 81 million people live in Germany
currently, Germany's population will be reduced to between 65 and 70
million in 2060 – falling back to levels in the 1950s (Wodok, 2004). In
2015, every fifth German inhabitant will be more than 65 years old. And
by 2060, the proportion of 65-plus will rise to roughly 34 percent
(Berlin Institut, 2011). Currently, more than 50 percent of the population
of Germany is more than 49 years old. This aging process is
particularly apparent in the increasing number of the so-called “old old”.
For instance, in 2008 there were approximately 4 million 80-plus in
Germany, making up roughly 5 percent of the German population. Their
numbers are increasing continuously and will reach the highest value
so far of approximately 10 million inhabitants in 2050 (Statistisches
Bundesamt, 2009; Reader´s Digest Deutschland, 2006). Of all the
countries in Europe, Germany's population is aging most quickly (Bauer
Media, 2007). In the future, however, the People's Republic of China
will have the oldest population globally. The strict Chinese policy on
families has led to a significant reduction in the birth rate, resulting in
the proportion of people aged 65 and over in China doubling by 2027,
from today's 7 percent to 14 percent (Meyer
Hentschel and Meyer-Hentschel, 2009).
Particularly noteworthy is the fact that the USA is slightly distancing
itself from this global demographic change (Meyer Hentschel, 2008;
Allan, 1981). Whereas European countries are combating a decrease
in their populations and sinking birth rates, the population of the USA of
currently 320 million is expected to continue rising, according to the US
Census Bureau, reaching roughly

Volume 39, Number 3, Fall 2014


318 Norbert H. Meiners and Carla da Silva Santana

450 million by 2050 (Berlin Institut, 2011; Strauch, 2008; Meyer


Hentschel, 2008). In spite of this population growth, the proportion of
older people in the USA is still expected to increase considerably.
Between the years 2005 and 2030, the proportion of people aged 60
and over will grow by 81 percent, while the remaining adult market (18-
59 years of age) will grow by only 7 percent (SMU, 2009; Pepper
Institute on Aging & Public Policy, 2007).
The world is getting older and no one knows exactly what life will
be like in tomorrow´s aging societies. But we do know that there is a
strong interaction between demographic change and economy,
because people´s economic behaviour varies at different stages of life
and changes in a country´s age structure can have significant effects
on its economic performance (Meiners, 2014; Meiners et al., 2011;
Meiners and Seeberger, 2010; Nyce and Schieber, 2005). Against this
background, the present paper will discuss the theoretical positioning of
economics of aging in science.
Economics of Aging
According to Meiners (2014), economics of aging (synonym:
economics of the old age, economics of the elderly) is a subcategory of
demographic economics (also: population economics), and deals with
the economic aspects of societal aging. It views itself as a special
economics – following established “special economics” such as
education economics and health economics (WU, 2012; Clark et al.,
2004; Schulz, 2001; Clark and Spengler, 1980; Fehm, 1971). At the
same time, economics of aging is also a fairly young research area and
area of action within gerontology, whose main focus in Europe is
currently on financing social security systems – especially pension
systems (Naegele and Schneiders, 2012; Cirkel, 2011; Kruse and
Wahl, 2010; WU, 2010; Schneider, 2006; Nyce and Schieber, 2005;
Backes, 2004). Lee dkk. (2010, p. 15) also emphasises this aspect with
the following statement: “Most analyses of the economics of aging
emphasize labor income at older ages because of the important
linkages between labor supply and aging-related institutions, eg public
pensions programs”. By contrast, the USA and Japan discovered the
economic potential of this demographic development

The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies


Demographic Change and the Economics of an Aging Society
319

long ago and are looking for ways to link the two objectives of
improving the quality of life of older people and acquiring new market
and employment potentials (Heinze et al., 2011; Fretschner et al.,
2011; Fretschner, 2011; Murata, 2011; Suzman, 2010; Clark et al.,
2004; Clark and Spengler, 1980; Clark et al., 1978). Until today,
however, economic literature and other scientific literature have given
us few hints regarding a theoretical positioning of economics of aging. It
is therefore the aim of this work to demonstrate a theoretical positioning
of economics of aging using a narrative-systematic literature research
(as at: March 2014) so as to enable a comparative analysis.
Research question
The present paper is based on the following leading research
question:

How can 'economics of aging' be positioned theoretically in science?

Before this research question is answered below, the term


“economics of aging” is to be explained further so as to offer a detailed
definition and to determine a unique reference framework.
Definition of the term
Business science and gerontological literature to this day has (not
yet) agreed on consistent definitions (Meiners, 2014). Clark et al.
already emphasized at the end of the 1970s: “The process of
population aging is of economic significance because of its impact upon
individual behaviour affecting economic and other characteristics of a
population and its economy […]” (Clark et al., 1978, p. 920). As a
result, the term economics of aging is defined fairly individually in
scientific papers and books because each author defines this term
according to his or her own personal, often subject based approach.
Disney (2003, p. 1) describes the term economics of aging as follows:
“The economics of population aging is still seen as a subject in the
backwaters of economics: as a topic for the specialists in demography
and in pension economics. But changes in the age structure of the
population impinge on most issues of interest in the economy, including
labor-force participation, hours of work, accrual

Volume 39, Number 3, Fall 2014


320 Norbert H. Meiners and Carla da Silva Santana

and disposal of wealth, the pattern of consumption, taxation and public


expenditures, and the political economy of public policy”. And
Iparraguirre (2010, p. 5) speaks of economics of aging as follows:
“Economics of Ageing studies the implications of individual and
population ageing on economic matters”. According to Neill (2013,
without page numbers) economics of aging is “…the study of the
organization or production and distribution about the fact of ageing of
both individuals and their organizations, with a view to efficiency and
equity”. By contrast, Schneider (2006, p. 7) calls the term economics of
aging a research area containing business science analyses “… of the
material living conditions of older people, of the repercussions of
individual and societal ageing on economic development, of
intergenerational justice”. And from a primarily American perspective,
Wise and Woodbury (2010, p. 1) present economics of aging as
follows: “Research in the economics of aging is not limited to the United
States, or to changing age demographics, or to studies of the elderly.
The field covers aging issues around the world, in both developed and
developing countries. It involves research on both health and economic
circumstances, for both individuals and populations, and with particular
focus on how health and economic circumstances evolve interactively
over the life course. It encompasses advances in research
methodology, data resources, experimental interventions, and the
evolution of public policy in health, work, disability and retirement”.
Study design
Methodology
A systematic search was carried out in four English and German
language databases (CINAHL, GeroLit, MEDLINE, PubMed) and
manual search of selected journals and books not listed in the
searched databases. The literature search was performed for scientific
publications between 1958 and 2014, using the search terms in Table 1
and various Boolean operators. Specifically, the use of the standard
operators “AND” and “OR” were used. In addition to the searched
for criteria in Table 1, two further criteria were included: the nature of
the work and if the work had a direct reference to the theme.
The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies
Demographic Change and the Economics of an Aging Society
321

These criteria were also used for all listed and referred to cross
references in the identified papers. The exclusion of certain criteria
occurred as a result of included criteria. Articles written in languages
other than English and German and articles of which the full-text was
not available were excluded.
Search process
The research process was split into the phases featured in Figure 1
below.
The presentation of results shown below constitutes a structured
summary of systematic literature research to theoretically position
economics of aging in science. It also forms the basis for the resulting
discussion regarding the further development of economics of aging as
a research area and area of action relevant to the future. A statistical
analysis of the publications was not generally necessary given the
design of the study.
Results
This search yielded 437 scientific sources. 54 scientific sources
were considered eligible, using the above-mentioned criteria (Figure 1).
The positioning categories described below were created, and
evidence could be provided, using the works integrated into this
investigation:
- Theoretical positioning in Economics, and
- Theoretical positioning in Gerontology.
Theoretical positioning in Economics
As we have indicated, economics of aging is a subcategory of
population economics (also: demographic economics), and deals with
the economic aspects of societal aging (WU, 2010; Clark et al., 2004;
Schulz, 2001; Clark and Spengler, 1980). According to Gabler
Wirtschaftslexikon (2014a, without page numbers), it is the term for “ …
researching the interactions of the population and the economy and
summarises fields of work and research questions, where economics
(macro- and microeconomics) are applied to explain demographic
phenomena. Population has been an integral part since the beginnings
of macroeconomic thinking”. The oldest US book

Volume 39, Number 3, Fall 2014


322 Norbert H. Meiners and Carla da Silva Santana

publication about economics of aging is by Brennan et al. (1967).

Records identified through searching of 4 English and German language data-bases and
manual
search
(title,
abstract)
(n=437)

Records
excluded
by
screening title and abstract (n=354)

Full text
records

assessed for eligibility (n=83)

Full text
records
excluded
by
screening full text (n=37)

Records

Additional records identified from reference lists


and author´s name (n=23)
Full text records excluded (n=15)

Records
included in review (n=8)

Total number of records


included in review (n=54)

Figure 1: Flow diagram of study selection

The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies


Demographic Change and the Economics of an Aging Society
323

In population theory, “…economic considerations have a long


tradition” (Braun 2000, p. 298). For instance, Ancient Greek philosophy
already dealt with the “general” relationship of the population and the
economy. Plato and Aristotle, for example, were convinced that a
stable population contributes to stabilising the
economic situation and promotes distributive justice. By contrast, in the
Middle Ages, religious convictions led to a more favourable take on
population growth. From the point of view of the Mercantilism of 17th
century absolutist states, a growing population was also desirable,
because this seemed to enable additional tax income and power
(Braun, 2000). Well-known classics of national economics also mention
a positive view of population growth. Adam Smith (1723-
1790), for instance, pointed out that a bigger population can have a
positive effect on the division of labour and hence on the development
of the economy (Smith, 1776). To the contrary, the ideas of the English
cleric and national economist Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1843)
published in the late 18th century led to a more pessimistic view of the
Population Economics relationship. Malthus (1798) presented his
population principle based on a large amount of empirical evidence,
stating that the enormous growth potential of the population can
destroy any improvements of the economic situation (Braun, 2000).
However, Jöst (2002) states that the actual population development in
the 19th century did not corroborate Malthus' predictions. It was this
fact that subsequently resulted in detailed and critical discussions of the
Malthusian theory, including by Marx (1876) (Huinink, 2000). Brentano
(1909), a German economist, was one of the most famous critics of the
Malthusian theory (Jöst 2002). “Discussing Malthus' population theory
in a small paper published in 1909, he formulated the main elements of
modern microeconomic population theories for the first time …” (Jöst,
2002, p. 94). Brentano's population theory, which attempted to correlate
a declining birth rate with rising standards of living, was meant both as
an attack upon the Malthusian theory and as an expression of faith in
the possibilities of reform. In addition, his approach can be viewed as
the basis for a change in the formation of theories, which – from

Volume 39, Number 3, Fall 2014


324 Norbert H. Meiners and Carla da Silva Santana

today's point of view – is highly significant for modern business science


(Jöst, 2002).
Neoclassical growth theory is another prominent approach applying
the “general” relationship between economic and population
development. In contrast to the Malthusian approach, the focus of this
economic theory is on economic growth through capital accumulation in
the case of an exogenous population growth (Gabler Wirtschaftslexikon
2014b; Lee and Mason, 2010). Braun (2000) claims that the
assumptions and conclusions of this approach hearken back to the
basic model developed by Solow (1956) and Swan (1956), which aims
at outlining the conditions under which economic growth can be
achieved and maintained using original factors (such as natural
resources and manpower) and producing factors (such as equipment
and learned skills). Overall, technical progress seems to be a key
variable in the economic growth process, weakening the Malthusian
population- pessimism (Gabler Wirtschaftslexikon, 2014b).
“Specialised” family economics theories, such as fertility models,
have been developed as a response to these general approaches. In
the context of Family Economics, they have become a fixed component
of modern economic theory (Willis, 1973). One prominent approach has
its origins in Easterlin (1968; 1973; 1980), according to whom economic
conditions during youth affect subjective attitudes towards children and
influence later fertility decisions (Braun, 2000). “Roughly speaking,
consumer experiences and the number of siblings significantly
influence the later weighting of material goods (relative to the number
of children) in the utility function of potential parents” (Braun, 2000, p.
322). Here, it is assumed that youths from families with a high and a
small number of members develop comparatively strong preferences
for material goods. Such values then result in a lower number of
children in favour of consumption later on (Macunovich and Easterlin,
2008).
One further prominent family economics approach focuses on the
economic cost-benefit analysis of the reproductive decision. This
particularly relates to the quality and quantity of children. According to
Braun (2000, p. 329), the “quality” of children is “… generally

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Demographic Change and the Economics of an Aging Society
325

understood to be the characteristics of offspring (such as education,


health or achievements), which influence the parents' utility level. It
seems plausible that parental decisions (in addition to luck, aptitude,
public spending) change the quality of offspring”. Becker (1989; 1991),
for instance, outlines significant aspects and effects of parental
decisions regarding the quality and quantity of children by modifying the
above-mentioned fertility model and reinterpreting its values (Braun,
2000).
A description of further economic population science theories
would significantly exceed the scope of this paper. As a result, these
theories are only briefly set out in this by no means exhaustive list:
Some population economics theories deal with investments in personal
education and the effects of this formation of human resources (Becker,
1993; Mincer, 1974). Other theories deal with migration (Borjas, 1990)
and discrimination (Becker, 1971) as well as their impact. Further
theories (Becker, 1991; Ott, 1992) offer economic explanations for
marriage and cohabitation, division of labour in the household and
divorce behaviour (Braun, 2000). An extensive overview of the relation
of population and economic development is available, among others, in
Rosenzweig and Stark (1997) as well as Dickmann and Seyda (2004)
and Jöst (2002).
Theoretical positioning in Gerontology
Neill (2013, without page numbers) presents economics of aging
as follows: “The Economics of Ageing, an element in Gerontology”. And
he adds: “Ageing [meaning the simple fact that people age as opposed
to a rise in the average age of a population] is to be considered in (1)
its physical aspect [which is distinct from medical or healthcare
considerations], (2) its social aspect [that is insofar as it is a set of
institutionalized mental constructs], and (3) its public policy aspect. It is
the last of these considerations that raises issues in Economics”.
In the oldest German-speaking publication on economics of aging by
Fehm (1971), gerontology is split into two sub-categories, which in his
view are largely independent: “Ie the analysis of biological medical
aspects on the one hand and sociopsychological and

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326 Norbert H. Meiners and Carla da Silva Santana

economic aspects on the other hand” (Fehm, 1971, p. 10). Fehm


allocates the economic theories of aging, ie economics of aging, to the
subcategory “Socioscientific Theories of Aging (Social Gerontology)”.
More than ten years earlier, Burgess (1958, p. 1) already stressed:
“Social gerontology is an emergent field of research and teaching which
is not directly concerned with the biological aspects of ageing but
concentrates rather upon its economics, social psychological,
sociological, and political aspects”. From an economic perspective,
social gerontology traditionally focuses on the proportion of a country's
income used by older people. What is new, however, is that the
productivity of older people and their achievement potential has also
moved to the focus of analyses (Motel and Szydlik, 1999).
Currently, the SOCIALinfo Wörterbuch der Sozialpolitik (2014)
points out that branches of science such as economic gerontology (in
the area of political economics and political sciences) and political
gerontology (with its main research objects of economic old-age
provision and politics of aging) are currently emerging. Looking at the
most important individual disciplines and areas in Wahl and Heyl
(2004), which traditionally provide the greatest contribution to
gerontology, however, it becomes apparent that economics of aging
are not explicitly mentioned in this overview. Even though Wahl and
Heyl (2004) critically state that their overview makes no claim to be
comprehensive, it nevertheless wants to draw attention to the major
and most active research areas in gerontology today (such as Biology
of Aging, Geriatrics und Psychology of Aging). Economics of aging is
thus not one of the most important individual disciplines in gerontology.
Only “Social Gerontology” and “Aging and Social Sciences” offer some
clues as to the relevance of the socioeconomic aspects of aging to the
research questions listed as examples.
In addition, Wahl and Heyl (2004, p. 42) demonstrate the multi and
interdisciplinary perspectives of gerontology in their twelve “essentials”
of gerontology. These are, among others, “(1) Ageing as a dynamic
process between losses and gains ..., (2) Ageing as a biological and
medically determined process ... (3) Ageing as a lifelong and
biographically positioned process ...”.“Essential (6)”

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Demographic Change and the Economics of an Aging Society
327
explicitly refers to ageing as an economically determined process, even
though we can conjecture that this might relate merely to
socioeconomic processes - analogue to the system of gerontology
mentioned above. Wahl and Heyl (2004, p. 44) emphasize: “In …
Essentials 4-6, we emphasise three factors influencing ageing, which
are especially significant: the social environment, the physical
environment and the environment in the shape of economic factors”. In
their view, economic resources together with education are the most
important social differentiation values (also) of aging, with relatively
direct consequences on autonomy, health and well-being (Wahl and
Heyl, 2004).
Karl (2003) in his publication on social and behavioural gerontology
also points out that there is hardly another area that can be approached
from as many angles. Referring to Lehr (1987), he lists biology,
psychology and sociology as well as explicitly also economics as an
individual discipline of gerontology (here: macroeconomics and
business administration). Nevertheless, he also aims only at
socioeconomic processes. In this context, Backes (2003) stresses: “In
order to understand age and ageing in its varied physical,
psychological, socioeconomic and sociopolitical aspects …, a special
effort across the boundaries of disciplines (transdisciplinary) is
required” (Backes, 2003, p. 45). Lenz et al. (1999) also confirms the
statement above. With reference to Kühnert and Niederfranke (1993),
they stress that gerontology is fed by numerous “parent disciplines”.
The interdisciplinary scientific field of gerontology among others
includes medicine, biology, psychology, sociology and philosophy “ …
such as today also the branches of economics and law” (Lenz et al,
1999, p. 37).
Höpflinger (2012) illustrates the multitude of specialist gerontology
areas and professional groups from a different perspective. These are,
eg, medical gerontology, gerontechnology and social gerontology. Even
though this pattern does not explicitly
mention Economics of aging, economics is shown here as a “further
specialist area”, which might face age-related questions in its sub
areas. From yet another viewpoint, Backes (2008) distinguishes

Volume 39, Number 3, Fall 2014


328 Norbert H. Meiners and Carla da Silva Santana

between four “basic perspectives of age(ing)”. These are: successful


aging, productive aging, conscious aging and aging with solidarity.
Regarding “productive aging”, she stresses: “Age is thus positioned
according to economic and efficiency criteria” (Backes, 2008, p. 87f.).
In addition, Backes (2008) views “ageing with solidarity” from the
perspective of “radical” and “critical” gerontology, as well as from the
perspective of political economics.
According to Backes and Clemens (2008, p. 169), a politico
economic approach towards age(ing) combines “[...] gerontological and
welfare state research approaches in a 'sociostructural perspective of
age'”. The economic marginalisation of aging is the starting point for
this 'structural' theory of aging. “The main focus is on the construction
of age by the modern state; by contrast, the institutions of the income
system have been neglected so far” (Baltes et al., 1994, p. 237). The
one-sidedness of such an approach as developed primarily in France
and England since the start of the 1980s has by now been criticised
and corrected. Current research on the political economics of aging
therefore researches not just the welfare state construction of age(ing),
but also, eg, the market-dependent 'industry of aging' (aging
enterprises). Backes and Clemens (2008) additionally stress: “After all,
the conceptually used 'Moral Economics of Ageing' [...] have
contributed to creating a sociohistoric foundation for politico-economic
analyses of ageing, and for understanding social exchange
relationships as an expression of cultural ideas of justice and morals”
(Backes and Clemens, 2008, p. 170).
Kruse and Martin (2004) also bring up the economic aspects of
aging in their encyclopaedia of gerontology, both in Part D (here:
Environments and circumstances of older people) and in Part F (here:
Sociopolitical and cultural perspectives) (eg, financial old-age
provisions). Finally, Part I of the publication on applied gerontology
(here: Principles and basic concepts) by Wahl et al. (2012) mentions
important comprehensive theoretic approaches such as the tension
between normal aging and aging in difficult somatic, mental or
economic circumstances (such as poverty in old age), which is

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Demographic Change and the Economics of an Aging Society
329

especially pronounced in applied gerontology.


Discussion
The main research question of this paper is: How can economics
of aging be positioned theoretically in science? The following was
determined as part of this paper:
Even though economics of aging have been increasingly identified
as a relevant research area and area of action, there is no sufficient
conceptual basis. In addition, there is only a limited theoretical
positioning of economics of aging in the economy. Here, economics of
aging risks treading water. However, there are already some
reasonably good approaches, which must be expanded and developed
further in the future. In this context, the research area and area of
action economics of aging should distance itself from the primary
socioeconomic perspective and more strongly focus on other areas of
economics as well. This is because the economic effects of social
aging are still underestimated in many areas. Even though Clark et al.
already emphasised at the end of the 1970s: “The projected continued
aging of the population will only intensify the importance of the
economics of aging” (Clark et al., 1978, p. 950). Wagner dkk. (2010, p.
301), however, critically underline around 30 years later that “ … many
politicians with a social focus, physicians and carers as well as
gerontologists dislike an open discussion of economic questions”.
Nevertheless, they take the view that the question to what extent older
people have access to economic resources in the shape of income and
services is unavoidable. Fachinger (2012, p. 610) confirms this:
"Literature attaches much importance to the economic power of age for
future economic development." The proportion of national income
consumed by older people is not only important in order to answer the
question of continuity or discontinuity in each person's circumstances
(Clemens and Naegele, 2004), but the amount and distribution of
economic resources available to older people are also important
indicators of differential aging. Last but not least, the economic effects
of social aging are so far primarily discussed only in economically
developed countries. In developing countries, there are hardly any
scientific discussions regarding this research area and area

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Demographic Change and the Economics of an Aging Society


331

of action. Marcoux (2001, without page numbers) also confirms that


“[T]he economics of aging have been analysed mainly in developed
countries”.
There are three limitations to this study: First, the search process
used only four databases. Secondly, this review took into account
publications only in English and German. Because of these two
aspects, the review may fail to encompass all published literature.
Finally, this study did not endeavour to evaluate the methodological
quality of each scientific publication. Study findings were taken as
reported.
Conclusion and prospects
Clark and Spengler emphasized in the early 1980s: “The
economics of population aging is essentially a new concern for
economists as well as other social scientists” (Clark and Spengler,
1980, p. 1). Even 30 years later, Hradil (2013, p. 63) still highlights the
innovative forces contained in the economics of aging: Among other
aspects, they are revealed “… in food, health advice, in new living and
interior design concepts including information technologies, in age-
appropriate sports and wellness offers”. In order to properly understand
the varied physical, mental, social, sociopolitical and economic aspects
of age(ing), special multi- and interdisciplinary efforts are required
(Brandenburg, 2012; Mason and Lee, 2011). Pressure for such efforts
is on the increase both in science and in practice, because: “The
Economics of Ageing is dynamic rather than static” (Neill, 2013, without
page numbers). Even if Wahl and Heyl (2004) emphasize that
economic factors are especially significant factors influencing age(ing),
economics of aging is not one of the most important individual
disciplines of age(ing) and economic sciences. At the same time, the
limited theoretical positioning and the mission conceptual foundation of
economics of ageing constitute limits to the systematic further
development of this research area and area of action. The aim here is
to expand already existing approaches and to systematically develop
them further in order to unlock the economic potential of the
demographic development. “What is needed is a balanced,
Volume 39, Number 3, Fall 2014
332 Norbert H. Meiners and Carla da Silva Santana

comprehensive view of the implications of those changes” (Marcoux,


2001, without page numbers).

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BOOK REVIEW ARTICLE

A Provocative Look at Robert Gates'


“Memoirs of a Secretary at War”
Dwight D. Murphey
Wichita State University, retired

Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War


Robert M. Gates
Alfred A. Knopf, 2014
In this article, we attempt to do something that Robert Gates
probably never intended as he wrote these memoirs of his tenure as
US Secretary of Defense during the middle years of both the Iraq and
Afghanistan wars. We are taking his very readable personal narrative
and probing deeper than Gates himself has chosen to do.
This involves taking seriously the many issues raised by the wars and
the policy decisions regarding them, all as touched on in his book. The
critique expressed here is intended to be “provocative” by delving into
a number of issues that can benefit from more thought.

Key Words: Robert M. Gates; US Secretary of Defense; Iraq war;


Afghanistan war; “Suspension of disbelief;” American global intervention,
dangers and presumption in US global role; “Moderation” in America;
Fighting insurgencies among civilians; Out
of-control organizations; American profligacy; Conflict with Islamic
customs; Limits of compassion; Moral equivalence of mass protesters;
Arab Spring; Veteran's Administration health care scandal; Events of 9/11.

Robert Gates was the United States' Secretary of Defense from


December 2006 to the end of June 2011, a period that spanned the
final two years of George W. Bush's presidency and the first two and a
half years of Barack Obama's. It was a span that placed him at the
center of both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Gates is an eminently
likeable fellow, and readers will find his memoir of those years a
personal account that makes the book open and inviting. It isn't exactly
light reading, since he discusses a great many policy issues and

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Robert Gates' “Memoirs of a Secretary at War” 343

decisions, but because he rarely probes below the surface he avoids


entangling readers who do not wish to go deeper.
This surface-treatment is no doubt a welcome thing for the reading
public in general, who will want to enjoy him and his narrative; but it is
not nearly so desirable for those who want an in depth, thoughtful
discussion. In our critique here, we hope to examine seriously some of
the issues Gates' book brings to the fore (or, perhaps just as tellingly,
omits). Unavoidably, there are too many issues to allow us to discuss
them all. Because much of our critique will be critical, sometimes
sharply so, it is worth saying early-on that the intention is by no means
to be mean-spirited. Gates is the sort of fellow whom it would be easy
to welcome as a friend.
A familiarity with Robert Gates and his mental landscape will be
useful as we look ahead to the issues we will discuss. In all, he served
eight presidents during his long career. In addition to the service we
have mentioned as Secretary of Defense and Director of the CIA, and
nine years at the National Security Council, he has been in the
academic community first as interim dean of the George HW Bush
School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and
then as that University's president. He grew up in Kansas, went to the
College of William and Mary for his bachelor's, to Indiana University for
his masters in history, and to Georgetown University for his doctorate in
Russian and Soviet history. Most recently, he has become the
president of the Boy Scouts of America. It is safe to say that he is one
of the preeminent men1 of his generation.
In a sense, he has been an archetype of his time, being someone
who has fit in well. He considers himself “a moderately conservative
Republican,” which is something that has a peculiar meaning in today's
American context. His “conservatism” consists of not having been
among the activist, anti-establishment figures of his generation.
1
His “moderation,” however, somewhat belies that conservatism.
We're not unaware that a reference to “preeminent men” is ideologically verboten
among “people whose opinions count” in the United States today. That
it is so is itself, in our opinion, sufficient reason to use the description. Gates is,
after all, a male.

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344 Dwight D. Murphey

“Moderates” in the American context are those who acquiescence


uncomplainingly in each of the cultural, political, economic and social
initiatives of the ideological establishment. They don't presume to lead
the way, but they instinctively “go along to get along.” There are many
examples of this sort of moderation in the book, but one of the best
comes from a May 2014 Associated Press report about Gates'
assumption of the Boy Scouts' presidency: “Robert Gates, the new
president of the Boy Scouts of America, said Friday that he would have
moved to allow openly gay [ie, homosexual] adults in the organization…
but said he opposes any further attempts to address the policy now.” 2 It
is this non-confrontational condonation that makes him so agreeable
and lends itself to the easy readability of his memoirs. So also does his
ready acceptance of America's reigning myths and his sliding easily
over disquieting historical truths. Most readers will nod in agreement,
say, when he writes of the “fear that led Franklin D. Roosevelt to intern
the Japanese-Americans.”3 It is agreeable to accept his statement that
“promoting democracy around the world had been a fundamental tenet
of American foreign policy since the beginning of the Republic… What
has differed has been how to accomplish or pursue that goal.” What
this brushes over, of course, is John Quincy Adams' famous dictum that
the United States ought not “to go abroad seeking monsters to destroy,”
a policy that was mostly followed until it was sharply abandoned in
1898 and that was by no means compatible with the “promotion of
democracy” through worldwide intervention as we have come to know
it.4 As we have seen, Gates received a doctorate in Soviet history, so
2
when he The Wichita Eagle, May 24, 2014.
3
For this reviewer's study contradicting the conventional wisdom that
Roosevelt “interned” the Japanese-Americans, see his “The World War II Relocation
of the Japanese-Americans” in his The Dispossession of the American Indian – and
Other Issues in American History, which can be accessed free of charge at
4
www.dwightmurphey-collectedwritings.info as Book 7 (ie, B7). For an excellent
discussion of this fundamental shift in American policy, see Patrick Buchanan's A
Republic, Not an Empire, which was reviewed in this Journal's Summer 2000 issue,
pp. 253-256. The review may be accessed at the web site cited in Footnote 4 here
as Book Review 54 (ie, BR54).

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Robert Gates' “Memoirs of a Secretary at War” 345

mentions “the seventieth anniversary of the Nazi invasion of Poland”


but does not refer at the same time to the Soviet Union's invasion that
divided Poland with Germany, it is natural to suppose that his omission
is not due to his ignorance of the history, but is rather a case of his
following in well-established ideological footsteps.
Gates' “moderation” often involves endorsing the far reaches of a
concept and then seeming to want prudence in carrying it out, but not to
the point of obliterating the goal. A call for prudence in execution would
seem sensible in any context, and is to be admired in itself. And yet, we
arrive at our central criticism of his worldview and of his performance as
Secretary of Defense. The broad concept he embraces is the same as
that favored by nearly all factions in American society today: that the
United States should be both the policeman and the social worker of
the world. Thus, he would guard against policies that might diminish the
“global security role for the United States,” arguing that “our security
needs and responsibilities remain global” and that “I strongly believe
America must continue to fulfill its global responsibilities.” It is not
surprising that his vision of the American role includes such a thing as
having “a robust air and naval presence in the Pacific, especially in
East Asia,” in effect placing the United States in the middle of the
fractious relationships between China, North Korea and their neighbors.
When Russian president Putin criticized America's dominance and
“almost uncontained hyper-use of force,” Gates didn't acknowledge
Putin's point, but instead called it a “diatribe.” His desire for prudence
appeared when he didn't want “another enterprise in nation building” in
Libya and argued that “we should not overestimate our ability to
influence what would happen after Qaddafi fell,” but it is consistent with
his overall mode of thinking for him then to do an about-face.
Accordingly, he praises the overthrow of Qaddafi, calling it “a huge
setback for al Qaeda by giving the lie to its claim that the only way to
get rid of authoritarian governments in the region was through extremist
violence.” For us to see that Libya is now in the throes of violence and
chaos following the West's (and United States') intervention does not
require a new “ah-ha” experience on our part; Libya's tribal divisions

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346 Dwight D. Murphey

being what they are, the chaos was predictable from the beginning. It's
noteworthy that his view of American “national interest” is expansive,
since he says that something becomes a part of “our vital national
interests,” even though he might otherwise not consider it to be, if “our
closest allies feel that it affects their vital interests.” This opens up a
vast field. It means, say, that if allies such as Israel consider something
a vital interest to themselves, “we have an obligation to help them.”
It is important to understand why the idea that the United States
should opt for global intervention to seek out and act against any
injustice that draws the attention of the American media and should
minister expansively to the miseries of the world's poor and of those
who are caught within inhumane cultures is both, as the cultural
commentator Samuel Huntington has observed, dangerous and
presumptuous. The presumption is evident for a number of reasons.
One is that the American people are themselves in continuing
ideological flux, so that whatever they set up as the standard for others
has no assured permanence even from Americans' own point of view.
Another is that Americans, including their top leaders, have a profound
ignorance of other peoples, their cultures, divisions and history. Gates
sees this when he says “we had no idea of the complexity of
Afghanistan – tribes, ethnic groups, power brokers, village and
provincial rivalries.” Speaking of Iraq, he adds that “our prospects in
both countries were grimmer than perceived, and our initial objectives
were unrealistic.” If this is so of Afghanistan and Iraq, is it not true also
of Somalia, Kosovo, Haiti, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Ukraine – and of such
others as the United States may aspire to refashion? Yet another
reason the world-intervention role is presumptuous is that, even if
Americans fully understood a given culture, the world's billions have
their own preferred ways of life, often deeply rooted and with long
histories. In political terms, we would speak of “their sovereignty” and of
the “right of self determination” so extolled by Woodrow Wilson. No
doubt many of their practices are repugnant to Americans, and
sometimes even to any civilized person. But here, “presumptuousness”
blends into

The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies

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