PENGGUNAAN INFORMASI KEUANGAN

DALAM PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN INVESTOR

PADA START UP COMPANY

Prof. Ir. Roy Sembel, MBA, Ph.D, CSA

LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel
3 November 2021
 Prof. Ir. Roy Sembel, MBA, Ph.D, CSA
LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel
•Profesor Keuangan dan Investasi dengan pengalaman lebih dari 40 tahun di dunia akademis
2

dan praktisi bisnis, sebagai Investor, Komisaris, Direktur, Entrepreneur, Trainer, Konsultan,
Penulis (lebih dari 1000 artikel dan 35 buku), dll
•Telah memfasilitasi ratusan training dan seminar untuk ratusan klien dari berbagai
organisasi dan perusahaan (Multinational / BUMN / Swasta) dan berbagai sektor (Financial
services / banks, Consumer goods, Telecom, Property, Energy, Mining, Construction, Media,
Pharmacy, Government, NGO, etc)
•Pengalaman kerja / bisnis: McKinsey & Co Jakarta, ABN AMRO Bank Amsterdam, Bank Niaga,
Jakarta Futures Exchange, Vriens & Partner, MIOTA & MDS (IoT & Data Science), HITS
(Energy Distribution), GTSI (Gas transport service), MCSI/ETSI (Crewing/Training), Proud
Media (Digital Media), IYKRA (Data Analysitic), Unistellar (Advisory), etc
•S1 (Ir., Statistika dan Komputasi) IPB; S2 (MBA, GM/Finance/Banking) Rotterdam School of
Management Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia; S3 (Ph.D, Corporate Finance / Econometrics) University of Pittsburgh
TOPIK TRAINING Strategic Decision Making:
Ekonomi, Finance, Investment: • Business Transformation in VUCA & Digital Era
• Outlook Ekonomi dan Bisnis • Managing Strategic Business Portfolios
• Valuasi Bisnis, Merger & Akuisisi • Blue Ocean Strategy
• Finance for Non Finance Executives • Strategic Change Management
• Fintech, IoT, Datascience • Creativity, Innovation, Intrapreneurship
• Strategic Cost Reduction • Teamwork-based Leadership
• Enterprise Risk Management • Business Acumen for Business Leaders
• Traditional and alternative funding • Business Ecosystem Strategy
COMMUNICATION:

•E-mail: roy.sembel@gmail.com
•LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel
•Facebook: Prof. Roy Sembel
•Twitter: @ProfRoySembel
•Instagram: @ProfRoySembel

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 Pokok Bahasan
•THE CONTEXT: NEW ECONOMY ERA
•VALUE DAN VALUE CREATION
•VALUASI INVESTOR PADA START UP
•TAKEAWAYS
•Q & A

5
 EKONOMI LAMA➔ REVOLUSI INDUSTRI 1-4 ➔
RESTRUKTURISASI BISNIS GLOBAL ➔ EKONOMI BARU
R
DIgitalisasi / E
E-commerce S
EKONOMI T
LAMA R EKONOMI BARU
U
K Baru Struktur Pasar
T Baru Struktur Industri
Mobilitas Modal U Baru Struktur Perusahaan
R Baru Model Bisnis
I
S
A
S
Liberalisasi I
BISNIS
G
L
O
B
A
Prof. Roy Sembel,LPh.D
 Tiga Faktor Pendorong Ekonomi Baru
• Lebih banyak pilihan •Biaya Interaksi
• Pelayanan 24-jam/hari •Biaya Transformasi
• Cukup sejauh Klik

• Meningkatnya
jumlah dan
kecepatan transaksi
dan interaksi
The rise of
• Globalisasi dan
the new lokalisasi
economy
•Copot & pasang
Organisasi bisnis,
pemerintah, dan
instrumen keuangan
• Seleksi alam lebih cepat Transparansi
• Insentif untuk lebih Dan Kompetisi
efisien dan inovatif Peningkatan Risiko
8 Prof. Roy Sembel, Ph.D Dan Imbal Hasil
 5 PERUSAHAAN TERBESAR TAHUN 1996
G
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O
B
A
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BUSINESS

R
E
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T THE 5 LARGEST COMPANIES IN 2020
R
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 Ekonomi Digital Global 2021

IPMI Executive Education Capabilities

Sumber: HootSuite Jan 2021
 Penetrasi Digital Global

IPMI Executive Education Capabilities Sumber: HootSuite Jan 2021

 ANALISIS SWOT
untuk Ekonomi Indonesia
STRENGHTS:
OPPORTUNITIES:
Keanekaragaman hayati
Abad Asia
Sumber Daya Alam
Pemulihan Ekonomi AS
12 bulan matahari
Pertumbuhan TIK
Sumber Daya Kelautan
Kerjasama Intra ASEAN
Warisan Nasional (Budaya, Alam)
WTO / AFTA
Total Penduduk Peringkat 4
Ekonomi Digital
Lokasi Geografis
THREATS:
WEAKNESSES:
Terorisme Fisik
Cryonism (KKN)
Terorisme Ekonomi
Penegakan hukum
Penyakit Tropika
Indeks Pembangunan Manusia rendah
Gejolak Harga Komoditi
Kualitas & Kuantitas Infrastruktur
Bencana Alam
Distorsi Pasar
Public Relation lemah
Demokrasi / Politik tahap dini
 Bebrapa Unicorn Indonesia

IPMI Executive Education Capabilities

From 5 G to 6 G

15
 Big Data ?
“Big Data”: data yang skala, keragaman, dan
kompleksitasnya mensyaratkan arsitektur, teknik, algoritma,
dan analitik baru untuk mengelola dan mengekstrak nilai
dan pengetahuan tersembunyi dari dalamnya

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KARAKTERISTIK
M U LT I D I S I P L I N E R
D A R I B I G D ATA
A N A LY T I C
VOLIX
Learning Log

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 Pokok Bahasan
•THE CONTEXT: NEW ECONOMY ERA
•VALUE DAN VALUE CREATION
•VALUASI INVESTOR PADA START UP
•TAKEAWAYS
•Q & A

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Binatang apa yang terlihat di gambar ini selain ikan?
Masih ingat gambar ini? Apa pelajarannya?
 ?
Bukan sekadar memaksimalkan profit!

➔Risiko?
➔Nilai waktu dari uang (Time Value of Money)?
➔Keberlanjutan?

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 Tujuan Manajemen Keuangan
(1) Sasaran Dasar (2) Sasaran Operasional (3) Sasaran Sosial
(i) Maksimalisasi-Laba (i) Ketersediaan dana
(ii) Maksimalisasi- yang dipersyaratkan
Kekayaan sesuai timingnya
(ii) Penggunaan dana
dengan cara paling
efektif
(iii) Investasi yang aman
(iv) Pertumbuhan
perusahaan
Penciptaan Nilai TambahSecara
Signifikan dan Berkelanjutan
(4) Sasaran Penelitian
(i) Pembayaran bunga Penelitan pada cara-
tepat waktu cara pembiayaan yang
(ii) Pembayaran dividen baru dan lebih baik
yang wajar
(iii) Pembayaran gaji
karyawan yang tepat
waktu
(iv) Pembayaran ke
pemasok secara adil
(v) Pembayaran pajak
pada waktunya
(vi) Menjaga relasi
dengan para
penyandang dana
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 Balanced Scorecard

Kepuasan Investor
Keuangan Penciptaan Nilai
(Value Creation)

Kesetiaan Pelanggan
(Customer loyalty)
Pelanggan Kepuasan pelanggan
Kualitas dengan harga terjangkau
pada waktu yang tepat bagi pelanggan

Proses Bisnis Waktu Siklus Proses

Kualitas Proses
Internal (Process Cycle Time)

Pembelajaran
Sumberdaya Manusia
& Pertumbuhan Knowledge, Skills, Attitude
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Lima Esensi Bisnis (Prof. Ram Charan)

Cash
Profit Margin
Perputaran (Velocity)
Pertumbuhan (Growth)
Fokus Pelanggan (Customer
Focus)

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 Empat Pilar
Penciptaan Nilai Keuangan
Sumber: McKinsey & Co

Prinsip Intisari-Nilai: Nilai Prinsip Menjaga-Nilai:

dihasilkan dari Anda tidak dapat
pertumbuhan dan dari menciptakan nilai hanya
return on capital, tanpa bermodalkan pengaturan
melupakan arus kas. arus kas. (Conservation-of-
(Core-of-Value Principle) Value Principle)
Penciptaan Nilai
Prinsip Kesepakatan Harap-
an: Semakin besar harapan Prinsip Pemilik Terbaik:
para stakeholder pada nilai Nilai sebuah usaha
saham, semakin baik Anda bergantung pada
harus menjaga kinerja kemampuan sang pemilik.
perusahaan. (Expectations- (Best Owner Principle)
Treadmill Principle)

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JENIS-JENIS VALUE

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Tangible Assets
6 Sources of Corporate Value

Physical Assets Land, buildings, machineries, inventories

Cash, receivables, investments, sources

Financial Assets
of debt & equity

Motivated & skilled employees, efficient

Employee & Supplier Assets
suppliers
Intangible Assets

Customer relationships, distribution

Customer Assets
channels
Leadership, corporate values, stratgegic
Organization Assets planning systems, balanced scorecard,
patents & other intellectual assets

Reputational Assets Public support, good corporate citizen

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Triple Bottomline
•PROFIT ➔ Nilai
bagi Pemegang
Saham
•PEOPLE ➔ Nilai Nilai bagi
bagi Masyarakat Stakeholder
•PLANET ➔ Nilai
bagi Lingkungan

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TRIPLE BOTTOM LINES: 3 Ps ➔ 6 Ps ++

PENTA HELIX:
1. UNIVERSITY
2. COMPANY
+ PEACE 3. GOVERNMENT
4. CIVIL SOCIETY
SUSTAINABILITY 5. MEDIA

Media
 ESG: Why and What
Getting your environmental, social, and governance (ESG)
proposition right links to higher value creation. (Witold
Henisz, Tim Koller, and Robin Nuttall. McKinsey Quarterly
November 2019)
• E: Environmental: (1) energy your company takes in & waste
it discharges; (2) resources it needs; (3) consequences for living
beings as a result. E encompasses carbon emissions and
climate change.
• S: Social: (1) relationships your company has; (2) reputation it
fosters with people & institutions in the communities where you
do business. S includes labor relations & diversity & inclusion.
• G: Governance: internal system of practices, controls, &
procedures your company adopts in order to govern itself, make
effective decisions, comply with the law, & meet the needs of
external stakeholders.
5 Essentials ways of ESG links to value creation
34
35
Typical funding at different growth stage
 Valuasi transaksi digital
• Estimasi 32.206Triliun (Bank Indonesia, 2021)
• 2020: 27.036 Triliun (Bank Indonesia)
• ekosistem e-commerce menjadi subsektor terbesar
transaksi di dunia maya dengan realisasi 2020
sebesar Rp253 T, dan ditargetkan dapat
berkembang hingga Rp337 T di tahun 2021 (naik
33,2%)
• Transaksi digital banking juga didukung oleh
transaksi uang elektronik yang akan meningkat 32,3
persen yakni dari Rp201 triliun pada 2020 menjadi
Rp266 triliun pada tahun 2021
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Learning Log

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 Pokok Bahasan
•THE CONTEXT: NEW ECONOMY ERA
•VALUE DAN VALUE CREATION
•VALUASI INVESTOR PADA START UP
•TAKEAWAYS
•Q & A

39
RIGHT BRAIN VS LEFT BRAIN

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 Myth and Reality of Valuation
Myth: market prices are determined by the perceptions (and
misperceptions) of buyers and sellers, and not by anything as
prosaic as cashflows or earnings

“Valuation is often not a helpful tool in determining when to sell

hypergrowth stocks”
Henry Blodget, Merrill Lynch Equity Research Analyst January 2000, (report on
Internet Capital Group, which was trading at $174)

Postscript: Internet Capital Group was trading at $ 3 in January 2001

Reality:
Perceptions matter, but they cannot be all the matter.
Asset prices cannot be justified by merely using the “bigger fool”
theory
41
 Myth & Reality on Valuation (2)
Myth: Valuation ➔objective search for “true” value
Reality:
All valuations biased.
Questions: how much and in which direction
Direction and magnitude of bias ➔ directly proportional to who
pays you and how much you are paid

Myth: Good valuation ➔ precise estimate of value

Reality:
No precise valuations
Payoff to valuation is greatest when valuation is least precise

Myth: More quantitative model ➔ better valuation

Reality:
One’s understanding of a valuation model is inversely
proportional to the number of inputs required for the model
42Simpler valuation models do much better than complex ones
VALUATION: PERSEPSI VS KUANTIFIKASI
 Determination of Firm Value (mainstream)
• Book value: assets minus liabilities on the balance sheet. Book value
is based on historical cost minus accumulated depreciation.
• Net Book Value Method: Calculate the net book value of tangible and
intangible assets.
• Multiples Analysis Method: Estimate the value of a company using a
multiple of comparable companies.
• Appraisal value: firm value is estimated by an independent appraiser.
This estimate is often based on the firm’s replacement cost.
• Market-based value: for publicly listed companies, based on market
capitalization in the stock market
• DCF Analysis Method: Calculate today’s value of expected future cash
flows using a discounted cash flow analysis.
• Estimate the target firm’s cash flows.
• Estimate the target firm’s after-tax risk-adjusted discount rate.
• Calculate the present value of the target firm’s cash flows.
 Going concerns vs liquidation value
• Value of firm/company is different in different situation. For
example: Liquidation vs going concern.

• Simple illustration / example of Taxi business

• If the company is liquidated now ➔ sell all assets and pay all debts
➔ the residuals go to shareholders ➔ value of future growth
opportunities is excluded

• Otherwise, valued as a going concern entity ➔ value of future

growth opportunities is included

45
 Market
based
valuation
LANGKAH PENTING DALAM DCF
First Chicago Method
BIG PICTURE OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY
PASSIVE JUST FOLLOW
INVESTING THE MARKET

INFORMED DIVERSIFICATION
FUNDAMENTAL QUANTITATIVE
ANALYSIS MACRO
INDUSTRY
BUY FIRM
LOWER QUALITATIVE

LONG TERM

SELECTION
STOCK
SELL
HIGHER
TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS

SHORT TERM
ACTIVE
INVESTING
MARKET /
INVESTOR
SENTIMENT

50 RETURN VS RISK
 Fundamental Analysis
TOP DOWN APPROACH:
• Domestic and global economic analysis
• Industry / Sector analysis
• Company analysis

Company valuation
• Intrinsic Value (IV)
• Calculated by investor
• Basically it is discounted future CF
• Market Price (MP)
• Consensus value by market participants
• Decisions
• IV > MP Buy
• IV < MP Sell or Short Sell
• IV = MP Hold, Fairly Priced
17-51
Valauasi dan pemilihan perusahaan
Menurut Warren Buffett
Investor Hebat dan Terkaya
 The Coca Cola Company
• Simple and Understandable
• Manufacturer, marketer and distributor of carbonated soft drink
concentrates and syrup
• Strength: brand name and world wide distribution system
• Favorable Long Term Prospects
• Decades of business attributes
• Roberto Goizueta: “Strategy for the 1980s”
• Profit Margin • Return on Equity
• 1973: 18% • 1983: 20%
• 1980-1985: 12.9% • 1988: 31.8%
• 1986: 13.7% • Candor
• 1988: 19% • Management’s primary objective is to maximize
shareholder value overtime
• Rationality
• Increase dividend to shareholder
• Repurchase its shares in the open market
• Aggressive investment in over-seas market
 Year
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Prior year owner earnings $828 $952 $1,095 $1,259 $1,448 $1,665 $1,915 $2,202 $2,533 $2,913
Growth rate 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Owner earnings $952 $1,095 $1,259 $1,448 $1,665 $1,915 $2,202 $2,533 $2,913 $3,350
Discount factor 0.9174 0.8417 0.7722 0.7084 0.6499 0.5963 0.5470 0.5019 0.4604 0.4224
Discounted value per annum $874 $922 $972 $1,026 $1,082 $1,142 $1,205 $1,271 $1,341 $1,415

Sum of present value owner earning $11,250

Residual Value $3,350

Growth rate 5%
Owner earning in year 11 $3,517
Capitalization rate 4%
Value at end of year 10 $87,930
Discount factor at end of year 10 0.4224
Present Value of Residual $37,143
Intrinsic Value of Company $48,393

Valuasi
Coca Cola
56
57
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN START UP AND NORMAL COMPANY VALUATION

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61
 Determination of Firm Value (non-mainstream)

• Scorecard Valuation Method: Value a startup using average

valuations of startups operating within the same sector,
stage, and region.
• Venture Capital Method: Calculate a future post-revenue
valuation, and then use that figure to arrive at a pre-
revenue valuation.
• Berkus Method: Calculate the value of a startup by
assigning value of up to $500,000 to different parameters.
• Risk Factor Summation Method: Estimate the value of a
pre-revenue startup by scoring 12 risk categories
 VENTURE CAPITAL METHOD
• Dikembangkan pada tahun 1987 oleh Bill Sahlman,profesor di Harvard Business School,
melibatkan penghitungan penilaian pasca-pendapatan dan kemudian menggunakan angka
itu untuk sampai pada penilaian pra-pendapatan.
• Nilai masa depan dari suatu aset dihitung dengan mengalikan pendapatan yang
diproyeksikan dengan margin yang diproyeksikan dan rasio P / E industri atau kelipatan
relevan lainnya.

Contoh:
perusahaan teknologi kesehatan mengharapkan pendapatan $ 20 juta dalam 10 tahun, dengan
margin laba 20% dengan Rasio P / E industri adalah 15.
➔ Jadi nilai masa depan bisnis ini pada tahun penjualan dihitung dengan rumus sebagai
berikut:$ 20 juta * 20% * 15 = $ 60 juta Sekarang, saatnya menghitung penilaian pra-
pendapatan.
Untuk itu, perlu diperhitungkan laba atas investasi (ROI) dan jumlah investasi.
Jika seorang investor menginginkan ROI 20x pada investasi $ 1 juta, perhitungan pra-
pendapatan berikut akan berlaku: $ 60 juta / 20 - $ 1 juta = $ 2 juta

Perusahaan VC dan investor lain menyesuaikan metode ini dan metode lainnya dengan filosofi
dan pendekatan investasi mereka.
Misalnya, metrik yang digunakan oleh VC terkenal seperti Andreessen Horowitz adalah
pendapatan rata-rata per pengguna (ARPU). VC dapat memperhitungkan ARPU untuk
perusahaan yang sebanding saat menghitung penilaian perusahaan pra-pendapatan
 • Ditemukan oleh angel investor Dave Berkus.
• Menilai ide bisnis, prototipe, tim manajemen, hubungan
BERKUS strategis, dan rencana penjualan perusahaan.
METHOD • Setiap faktor dapat dinilai hingga $ 500.000,
memungkinkan perusahaan rintisan untuk mencapai
penilaian hingga $ 2,5 juta.
 • Melibatkan penilaian 12 kategori risiko dengan
Risk Factor peringkat dari -2 hingga +2, dengan peringkat
Summation negatif mengurangi penilaian akhir dan peringkat
positif meningkatkannya.
Method
• Merupakan perpanjangan dari Berkus Method
 Case Study: GREENHOPE
Bio Plastic Company
GREEN PLASTICS (BIODEGRADABLE,
BIOPLASTIC, etc.) WILL CAPTURE A LARGER THE PLASTIC INDUSTRY IS FUNDAMENTALLY SHIFTING
SHARE OF CONVENTIONAL PLASTICS
INDUSTRY
Environment - Our solutions contribute to ensure
sustainable consumption & production: Each year on
average GH has removed > 30,000 tons of polluting
conventional plastic away from the environment & landfills
Forefront GH received several recognitions for
biodegradable its impact and contribution
technologies GH won 2017 Flourish
Prize for Goal 12 –
sustainable consumption
& production
Social - We plan to continue
investing in supporting local
farmers, diversity and being
active participants in local
and global forums
GREENHOPE ESG
Each year, GH has removed an average ~>
30,000 tons of polluting conventional plastic
from the environment
Through the integrated socio-environment
business model, GH is positioned to deliver
on the world’s most pressing problems
GH actively involved in the National
Partnership for Action on Plastics (NPAP)
and support many government
organizations to ensure scaled
technological and social innovations for
sustainable adoptions in societies
Our technologies are biodegradable from 3
– 12 months or for couple of years
(depending on design intent & end-of-life
situation), effectively removing plastic waste
accumulation and reducing ongoing plastic
pollution
Internal Life Cycle Analysis
indicates that every 200 tons
of Ecoplas affect more than
2,000 farmers and family
members, as well as home
industries
More than 50 percent of staffs
are women. 4 out of 5 direct
reports to CEO are women
GH is active participant in
important local and global
forums to affect systemic
social impact
Governance –
Sustainability activities
and targets are
anchored and executed
across the organization
Provides input management on
overall approach to sustainability
Signs off on GH’s overall
approach to sustainability, sets
new targets & reviews
performance on quarterly basis
Develops & executes sustainability
roadmaps, recommends new targets
& reviews performance on
quarterly basis. Dedicated team
called Partnership & Social
Innovation is responsible to execute
& deliver, supported by others
Implements sustainability
activities in the roadmap
GH has achieved both ISO 9001 (Quality
Management) & ISO 14001 (Environment
Management) within less than 5 years; not
many companies can achieve / commit on this
GH commits to advancing best practices in
R&D, manufacturing, and upstream agro
development (tapioca sourcing from farmer
coops) in emerging markets
GH is seeking to become B-Corp within the
next couple of years
VOLIX
Learning Log

70
 Pokok Bahasan
•THE CONTEXT: NEW ECONOMY ERA
•VALUE DAN VALUE CREATION
•VALUASI INVESTOR PADA START UP
•TAKEAWAYS
•Q & A

71
Mainstream and non-mainstream valuation methods
 DALAM ERA BARU ➔ UBAH MINDSET
CARA LAMA CARA BARU
I ➔ We
Illness (Sakit) ➔ Wellness (sehat, makmur)
Bukan keahlian saya ➔ Gabungkan keahlian
Tidak dapat solusi ➔ Bisa dapat solusi bersama
Menyerah ➔ Saling mendukung
Terlalu berat ➔ Berbagi beban
Competition ➔ Coopetition
JIKA ANDA PIKIR BISA ATAU ANDA TIDAK BISA
➔ ANDA
IPMI Executive BENAR
Education DALAM DUA
74
SITUASI ITU
Capabilities
 PESAN TERAKHIR:
Prof. Roy Sembel’s B.E.S.T 8 Hs MESSAGE
• 2B Be Hopeful and Helpful

• 3E Empower Heart, Head, and Hand

• 2S Stay Hungry and Happy

• 1T Thrive Holistically

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Learning Log

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 Pokok Bahasan
•THE CONTEXT: NEW ECONOMY ERA
•VALUE DAN VALUE CREATION
•VALUASI INVESTOR PADA START UP
•TAKEAWAYS
•Q & A

77
 Sesi Tanya Jawab

• Pertanyaan
• Komentar
• Curhat (Concerns)

78
 Kalau anda jalan-jalan ke Tasikmalaya
Jangan lupa enjoy sambel, dan ngemil oncom

Kalau masih ada yang ingin ditanya

Jangan lupa kirim e-mail ke roy.sembel@gmail.com
Facebook/LinkedIn: Prof Roy Sembel
Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel
SARI JUS PEPAYA
BUAH ALPUKAT LEZAT…
MARI TRUS BERKARYA
TAMBAH SEMANGAT & SEHAT

MAKAN SIRIH
DI TEPI PERIGI …
TERIMAKASIH
SAMPAI JUMPA LAGI
Learning Log

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