BELI
Stock Information
Ticker Code KRAS
GICS Sector Basic Industry
Market Cap (IDR billion) 11,515.75 B
52-Week High (IDR) 879
52-Week Low (IDR) 318
Shares Issued (Million) 15,775 M
KRAS
Highlights News
PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk melalui anak usahanya, PT
Krakatau Wajatama, telah melakukan pengiriman pertama
dari bagian baja ke PT PLN untuk sirkuit listrik proyek
menara transmisi sepanjang 46.000 Km pada 26 Oktober
2016. Pembangunan menara transmisi, yang merupakan
Source : Bloomberg bagian 35.000 MW proyek pembangkit listrik PLN, akan
membutuhkan 100.000 ton baja bagian untuk periode
November 2016 - November 2017.
Kenaikan harga baja serta peburunan harga gas industry
diperkirakan akan memperbaiki marjin laba KRAS mulai
tahun ini.
KRAS membukukan kenaikan volume penjualan sebesar
22,25% YoY hingga 9M 2016 dari 1,38 juta ton menjadi 1,68
juta ton.
Progress kontruksi pembangunan Blast Furnace telah
mencapai 95,3%. Pabrik Blast Furnace yang
pembangunannya dapat selesai pada November 2016 ini,
akan menghasilkan penghematan kurang lebih 58 USD/ton
PT OSO Securities baja.
Cyber 2 Tower,
Jl. H.R. Rasuna Said Blok X-5 No. 13 Kami merekomendasikan BELI untuk saham KRAS karena
Setiabudi harga saham saat ini masih cukup murah. Berdasarkan
Jakarta 12950
Tel. : 021 2991 5300
perhitungan menggunakan metode DCF kami mendapatkan
Fax : 021 2902 1497 nilai wajar saham KRAS adalah sebesar Rp1.145 per saham.
OSO SECURITIES OSO Equity Research
PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk
MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE
24 November 2016
350,000 900
800
300,000
700
250,000 600
200,000 500
150,000 400
300
100,000
200
50,000 100
- -
1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q
11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16
Sumber: Perusahaan
Kenaikan harga baja HRC sejak kuartal III 2016 hingga saat ini
menyebabkan nilai penjualan KRAS pada kuartal III naik 2.2% YoY.
Selain itu, COGS yang turun sebesar 4,2% YoY menjadi USD285,1
juta akibat penurunan biaya bahan baku. Turunnya COGS
menyebabkan KRAS kembali mencatat gross profit sebesar
USD38,1 juta atau naik sebesar 111% YoY.
4%
3% 4% 3%
10%
10% HRC HRC
CRC 6% CRC
5%
WR WR
50% Bars 53% Bars
Sections Sections
28% 24%
Pipe (Spiral & ERW) Pipe (Spiral & ERW)
Ratio 2Q 16 3Q 16 3Q 15 3Q 16 9M 15 9M 16
Return on Common Equity (%) (1.53) (1.51) (1.41) (1.51) (4.76) (2.10)
Return on Assets (%) (0.71) (0.71) (0.71) (0.71) (1.83) (1.00)
Gross Margin (%) 16.51 11.78 5.69 11.78 (2.10) 14.05
Operating Margin (%) 4.12 0.65 (5.95) 0.65 (12.44) 2.44
EBITDA Margin (%) 9.27 6.76 (2.76) 6.76 (7.79) 8.30
Profit Margin (%) (7.97) (8.40) (8.00) (8.40) (16.13) (11.68)
Total Debt to Total Equity (%) 96.14 97.92 77.88 97.92 131.05 94.08
Sumber: Perusahaan
Sumber: Perusahaan
Target KRAS
Di tengah kondisi perekonomian dunia yang penuh tantangan,
KRAS kembali berupaya meningkatkan performancenya. Tahun ini
berbagai cara dilakukan oleh KRAS demi meningkatkan daya
saingnya di kalangan industri baja. Adapun target KRAS tahun ini
adalah merampungkan beberapa proyek yang di antaranya ialah
pembangunan pabrik Blast Furnace berkapasitas 1.2 juta ton yang
diprediksi akan selesai di akhir tahun ini, serta merencanakan Coal
Fire Steam Boiler 2x80 MW dan PLTU Batubara 1x150 MW.
Prospek Usaha
Dengan tingkat ekspansif KRAS yang cukup tinggi, kami menilai
bahwa prospek KRAS di tahun ini dan mendatang akan mengalami
perubahan meski bertahap. Bahkan, sejak tahun 2015 KRAS telah
melakukan berbagai upaya perbaikan seperti halnya melakukan
revaluasi aset sehingga meningkatkan total aset KRAS hingga lebih
dari 30%. KRAS juga melakukan efisiensi biaya guna menyiasati
OSO SECURITIES OSO Equity Research
PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk
MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE
24 November 2016
Proyeksi Keuangan
Membaiknya harga baja dunia, kenaikan permintaan baja
domestik seiring proyek infrastruktur, estimasi diturunkannya
harga gas industri Pemerintah serta langkah KRAS mengelola cost
perusahaan akan menjadi katalis positif terhadap kinerja keuangan
KRAS.
Proyeksi Pendapatan
2500.00
2000.00
Information Technology and
Other Services
1500.00 Port Service Provider
In USD Bn
Engineering and construction
1000.00
0.00
Year 1 2 3 4
Discount factor 0.91 0.83 0.76 0.70
PV of free cash flows (114) (46) (32) 212
Income Statement
IDR bn 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Sales 1,869 1,322 1,366 1,438 1,513
COGS (1,828) (1,358) (1,161) (1,222) (1,286)
Gross Profit 41 (36) 205 216 227
Operating Expense (112) (147) (149) (86) (83)
EBIT (71) (184) 56 129 144
EBITDA 0 (109) 133 210 227
Interest Income 6 6 6 6 6
Interest Expense (51) (88) (91) (43) (45)
Forex Gain (Loss) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)
Other Inc (Exp) (66) (60) (27) (29) (30)
Profit Before Tax (183) (327) (58) 62 73
Tax Expense 29 1 15 (16) (18)
Minority Interest (7) (6) (6) (6) (6)
Loss Before Acquisition - - - - -
Net Income (147) (320) (37) 53 61
Ratios
2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
ROE (%) -16.6% -17.9% -2.0% 2.7% 3.0%
ROA (%) -5.6% -8.6% -0.9% 1.3% 1.5%
Margins
Gross Profit (%) 2.2% -2.8% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
EBIT (%) -3.8% -13.9% 4.1% 9.0% 9.5%
EBITDA (%) 0.0% -8.3% 9.7% 14.6% 15.0%
Net Profit (%) -7.9% -24.2% -2.7% 3.7% 4.0%
Financial Structure
Current Ratio 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6
Quick Ratio 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2
Net Gearing 28% 23% 43% 42% 40%
Solvency #REF! 31.9 -9.7 -22.5 -25.0
Debt/EBITDA 4227.2 -14.2 12.9 8.2 7.6
OSO SECURITIES OSO Equity Research
PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk
MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE
24 November 2016
Balance Sheet
IDR bn 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Cash 237 133 157 46 (86)
Receivables 249 211 228 240 252
Inventory 481 409 339 356 375
Other Current Asset 92 140 139 121 125
Total Current Aseet 1,059 893 862 763 667
Fixed Asset - Net 1,097 2,359 2,595 2,725 2,861
Other non-Current Asset 448 451 478 511 552
Total non-Current Aseet 1,546 2,810 3,073 3,236 3,413
Total Asset 2,604 3,702 3,935 3,999 4,080
Account Payable 240 174 168 166 173
Short term Loan 1,046 1,152 903 903 903
Other Current Liab. 127 131 115 119 121
Total Current Liab. 1,413 1,457 1,186 1,187 1,197
Long Term Loan 248 405 814 814 814
Other non Current Liab. 57 51 44 50 57
Total Non Current Liab 305 457 858 864 872
Minority Interest 13 7 7 7 7
Equity 886 1,788 1,891 1,947 2,011
Total Liab & Equity 2,604 3,702 3,935 3,999 4,080
CashFlow
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Net Income (320) (37) 53 61
Dep. & Amort. 68 76 42 44
Change In Working Cap. 54 47 (33) (25)
Others (55) (16) 22 (1)
Total CFO (253) 71 84 79
- - - - -
Investment Cash Flow - - - -
Capex (1,329) (312) (171) (180)
Chg. In Goodwill - - - -
Chg. In Other Asset (2) (27) (34) (41)
Minority Interest (6) - - -
Loss Before Acquisition - - - -
Total CFI (1,337) (339) (205) (221)
Free Cash Flow (1,591) (268) (121) (142)
Financing Cash Flow - - - -
Change in Capital - 136 - -
Dividend Paid - - - -
Other Equity Components 1,225 - - -
Adjustments 3 3 3 3
Net Change In Debt 264 161 - -
Chg in Other Liabilities (6) (8) 6 7
Total CFF 1,487 293 10 11
Net Cash Flow (104) 25 (112) (131)
Cash Beginning 237 133 157 46
Cash Ending 133 157 46 (86)
Sumber: Perusahaan dan Oso Securities
OSO SECURITIES OSO Equity Research
PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk
MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE
24 November 2016
RESEARCH TEAM
Supriyadi
(supriyadi@oso-securities.com) Head of Research +62 21 2991 5300
Rifqiyati
(rifqiyati@oso-securities.com) Research Analyst +62 21 2991 5300
Riska Afriani
(r.afriani@oso-securities.com) Research Analyst +62 21 2991 5300
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