Initial Cash Outlay Annual Free Cash Flow

Purchase Price Rp 8,000 Revenue Rp 1,000

Installation Rp 1,200 Less : cost Rp (400)
training Rp 600 Less : depr Rp (400)
EBIT Rp 200
Less : tax Rp (40) 20%
TOTAL Rp 9,800 Depr Rp 400

TOTAL Rp 560
 Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III
Probability 25% 50% 25%

Total Revenue :
High-Priced Rp 4,000,000 Rp - Rp -
Medium-Priced Rp 6,000,000 Rp - Rp -
Low-Priced Rp 10,000,000 Rp - Rp -

Total for Each scenario Rp 20,000,000 Rp - Rp -

Expected Revenue Rp 5,000,000 Rp - Rp - Rp 5,000,000

Input Data Data untuk Income Statement
1 n (periode) Fixed Cost
2 Capital Expenditure Income Tax
Aset (untuk depresiasi) Data untuk Sales : (
Yang tidak terkait aset Jika diketahui dari unit sales de
Total - Sales price
3 Working Capital awal Variable Cost/unit
Kebutuhan Working Capital per tahun
(jika ada) umumnya dari sales, kalo beda Sales tahun -
4 ya goodbye aj, itung sendiri
5 Residu Aset (jika ada) Unit

6 Harga Jual Aset (kalo gk ada isi nilai

residu biasanya)
7 Discounts Rate (untuk npv) Jika diketahui langsung dari
Depreciation Straight Line #DIV/0! Tahun ke-
Cash dari Jual Aset 0 Sales Total
Variable Cost Total

Tabel Free Cash Flows dan Income Statementnya

Tahun ke- 0
Operating Cash Flow (Income Statement)
Sales 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000
Variable Cost 2,100,000,000 2,800,000,000
Fixed Cost
Depreciation
Net Income
Income Tax
Net Income After Tax
Add Depreciation
Operating Cash Flow
Capital Expenditure 0
Working Capital Need 0
Change in Working Capital 0
Pengembalian Working Capital dan/atau aset
jika ada (cash nya aja)

Free Cash Flows 0

Present Value 0
NPV 0

Tips untuk tes S

Langkah-langkah
1. Isi NPV Normal dulu pakai ctrl c + ctrl v :)

2. Kemudian jika ada increase atau decrease di salah satu aspek, ganti di input
data, misalkan unit sold dikurangi 10% maka yang awalnya jual di thun 1 itu
10.000 unit sekarang inputnya ganti menjadi 9.000 unit, begitu juga dengan
aspek lainnya

3. Input NPV Baru setelah efek perubahan ctrl c + ctrl v juga

ntuk Income Statement
CTTN : DIBAWAHNYA ADA TIPS UNTUK SE
300,000,000
25%
Data untuk Sales : (opsional situasi yang mana) CTTN : Tidak harus data variabel dan sales opsi inputn
Jika diketahui dari unit sales dengan sales price tetap terserah aja
rice 400,000 400,000 400,000 300000 250000
e Cost/unit 140,000.0 140,000.0 140,000.0 140,000.0 140,000.0

Sales tahun -

Unit 15,000 20,000 25,000 18,000 12,000

Jika diketahui langsung dari total sales maupun variable cost total cttn : Kalo memang gak ada kosongin aja biar gak e
Tahun ke-
Sales Total 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 5,400,000,000 3,000,000,000
Variable Cost Total 2,100,000,000 2,800,000,000 3,500,000,000 2,520,000,000 1,680,000,000

10,000,000,000 5,400,000,000 3,000,000,000 0 0 0

3,500,000,000 2,520,000,000 1,680,000,000 0 0 0

Tips untuk tes Sensitivity Uy

NPV Normal (Lama) NPV Baru Perubahan
-
NYA ADA TIPS UNTUK SENSITIVITY

a variabel dan sales opsi inputnya disatu tempat,

terserah aja

140,000.0 140,000.0 140,000.0 140,000.0 140,000.0

ada kosongin aja biar gak error

- - - - -
- - - - -

0 0
0 0

(cttn ; kalo metode bukan straight line, sementara itung sendiri dulu ya)

(cttn : Nilainya sudah recapture NOWC + Jual aset)

%Perubahan
#DIV/0!
ng sendiri dulu ya)
 Outflow Inflow
Cash Outflow 0 Rp (10,450,000)
Cash Inflow 1 Rp 3,080,000
2 Rp 3,080,000
3 Rp 3,080,000
4 Rp 3,080,000
5 Rp 3,530,000
6
7
8
9
10
Total PV
PEERIODE (n) 5
Req. Rate of Return 10%

Before Change Change (%)

Initial cost of asset $ 10,000,000
Salvage Value $ -
Cash Fixed Cost $ 1,200,000
VC/unit $ 25.00
Unit 70,000
Price $ 90
Depreciation $ 2,000,000
Working Capital $ 450,000
Tax percentage 20%

Year 0 Year 1-4

Rev $ 6,300,000
Var Cost $ (1,750,000)
Depreciation $ (2,000,000)
Cash Fixed Cost $ (1,200,000)
Net Operating Income $ 1,350,000
Tax $ (270,000)
NOPAT $ 1,080,000
Depreciation $ 2,000,000
Operating CF $ 3,080,000
CAPEX $ (10,000,000)
NOWC $ (450,000)
FCF $ (10,450,000) $ 3,080,000
 PV Outflow
Rp (10,450,000)
Rp - Rp 3,080,000 Discount factor 1 1.10
Rp - Rp 3,080,000 Discount factor 2 1.21
Rp - Rp 3,080,000 Discount factor 3 1.33
Rp - Rp 3,080,000 Discount factor 4 1.46
Rp - Rp 3,530,000 Discount factor 5 1.61
Rp - Rp - Discount factor 6 1.77
Rp - Rp - Discount factor 7 1.95
Rp - Rp - Discount factor 8 2.14
Rp - Rp - Discount factor 9 2.36
Rp - Rp - Discount factor 10 2.59
Rp -

After Change Initial Outlay Rp (10,450,000) 0

PV YEAR 2,800,000.00 1
PV YEAR 2,545,454.55 2
$ 1,200,000 PV YEAR 2,314,049.59 3
$ 25.00 PV YEAR 2,103,681.44 4
70,000 PV YEAR 2,191,852.27 5
$ 90 PV YEAR - 6
$ 2,000,000 PV YEAR - 7
PV YEAR - 8
PV YEAR - 9
PV YEAR - 10
Year 5
$ 6,300,000 PV INFLOW 11,955,037.85
$ (1,750,000) Initial Outlay (10,450,000.00)
$ (2,000,000)
$ (1,200,000) NPV 1,505,037.85
$ 1,350,000 NPV Formula (10,450,000.00)
$ (270,000)
$ 1,080,000
$ 2,000,000 Expected NPV $ 11,057,820.50
$ 3,080,000 Revised NPV $ 1,505,037.85
$ - Selisih $ (9,552,783)
$ 450,000 % Change -86.39%
$ 3,530,000
ACCOUNTING BREAK-EVEN CASH BREAK-EVEN
Cash Fixed Cost $ 10,000 Cash Fixed Cost $ 10,000
Price/unit $ 16 Price/unit $ 16
VC/unit $ 10 VC/unit $ 10
Depreciation $ 4,000 Depreciation $ 4,000

Break-Even 2333.33 Break-Even 1666.67

NPV jika (+) NPV jika (+)
annual cash flows $ 800,000 annual cash flows $ 200,000
Req. Rate of Return 10% Req. Rate of Return 10%
Initial Outlay $ 6,000,000 Initial Outlay $ 6,000,000

NPV $ 2,000,000 NPV $ (4,000,000)

Jumlah Expansion 10
Persentase keberhasilan 50%
Persentase tidak berhasil 50%

NPV jika tidak ada Expansion $ (1,000,000)

NPV jika Expansion $ 8,000,000
 Cost of Debt Cost of Preference Shares
Yield 10% Dividend 4% 0 Salah satu harus 0
Tax Rate 34% Par Value 35
CoD (kd) 6.6% Price 25
CoE (kps) 5.6%

Cost of Common Shares

Dividend Growth Model CAPM
1 Apabila diketahui D1 1 Apabila tidak diketahui Market Risk Premium
D1 $ 10.00 Rf 0.01%
Price $ 100.00 Beta 0.8
Growth 10.00% Rm 4.01%
CoE (kcs) 20.00% CoE (kcs) 3.214%
2 Apabila tidak diketahui D1 2 Apabila diketahui Market Risk Premium
D0 $ 9.09 Rf 3.01%
Price $ 100.00 Beta 1.2
Growth 10% MRP 8.00%
CoE (kcs) 20.0% CoE (kcs) 12.61%

Flotation Cost
Financing Needed $ 100,000
Flotation Cost 5.50%
Flotation Cost Adjusted Initial Outlay $ 105,820.11
 WACC
Salah satu harus 0 Source Weight Cost of Financing WACC
Debt 38% 6% 0.0225
0
0
0
0
Preferred Stock 0
0
0
0
0
Common Stock 63% 15% 0.09375
0
0
0
0
TOTAL WACC 100% 0.11625
 Kali 0 Bagi #DIV/0! Selisih 0

SUM 0
Ini
Pangkat ini
Hasil 1
 THIS YEAR
Sales 5,000,000
Net Income 300,000 6.00%

BALANCE SHEET Current %Sales

Current Asset 2,000,000 40.00%
Net Fixed Asset 3,000,000 60.00%
Total Asset 5,000,000 100.00%

Account Payable 500,000 10.00%

Accrued Expense 500,000 10.00%
Notes Payable -
Total Current Liabilities 1,000,000

Long Term Debt 2,000,000

Total Liabilities 3,000,000

Common Stock 500,000

Paid in capital
Retained Earnings 1,500,000
Total Equity 2,000,000
Total Liablts and Equity 5,000,000
 PROFORMA BALANCE SHEET
NEXT YEAR
Sales 7,000,000
Net Income 490,000 7.00%
Dividend 49,000 10.00%
BALANCE SHEET Next Year %Sales
Current Asset 2,800,000 40.00%
Net Fixed Asset 5,000,000 71.43%
Total Asset 7,800,000 100.00%

Account Payable 700,000 10.00%

Accrued Expense 700,000 10.00%
Notes Payable -
Total Current Liabilities 1,400,000

Long Term Debt 2,000,000

Total Liabilities 3,400,000

Common Stock 500,000

Paid in capital -
Retained Earnings 1,941,000
Total Equity 2,441,000
Total Liablts and Equity 5,841,000
Discretionary financing needed 1,959,000
A BALANCE SHEET

Ketentuan peningkatan Fix Asset

Net Fixed Asset

Notes Tabel Input

% sales as this year This Year
Fix Asset only Rises 2000000 Sales
Net Profit Margin
Dividend payout Ratio
% sales as this year Next Year
% sales as this year Sales
Net Profit Margin
Dividend payout Ratio
Sumber pendanaan DFN

TABEL HASIL
Total Finance Needed
Total finance Provided
DFN
 Ketentuan peningkatan fix asset :
gkatan Fix Asset fungsinya untuk menginput jumlah
penambahan fix aset apakah
Peningkatan tertentu 2,000,000 proportional terhadap sales, TETAP
nilainya, atau bertambah sebesar
nominal tertentu
Tabel Input

5,000,000
6.0%

7,000,000
7.0%
10.0%
(tidak ada) Sumber pendanaan DFN,
nantinya untuk menjawab soal yg
TABEL HASIL kebijakan perusahaannya adalah
menggunakan Sumber
7,800,000 pembiayaan tertentu untuk
5,841,000 menutupi DFN nya contohnya
1,959,000 Study problem 17-7 titman e13
 ALTERNATIVE GROWTH SALES
Net Profit Margin 10%
Sales this Year 100,000
DPR 50%

BALANCE SHEET
Rate Growth Sales 10% 20% 40%
Current Asset 13,200 14,400 16,800
Net Fixed Asset 19,800 21,600 25,200
Total Asset 33,000 36,000 42,000

Account Payable 2,200 2,400 2,800

Accrued Expense 2,200 2,400 2,800
Notes Payable 1,500 1,500 1,500
Total Current Liabilities 5,900 6,300 7,100

Long Term Debt 6,500 6,500 6,500

Total Liabilities 12,400 12,800 13,600

Common Stock 1,000 1,000 1,000

Paid in capital 2,000 2,000 2,000
Retained Earnings 15,550 16,550 17,550
Total Equity 18,550 19,550 20,550
Total Financing Provided 30,950 32,350 34,150
DFN 2,050 3,650 7,850
Financing Need 33,000 36,000 42,000
 Tabel ini berfungsi untuk menjawab
soal yang meminta menentukan DFN
untuk berbagai tingkat pertumbuhan
penjualan.
50% 60%
18,000 19,200
27,000 28,800
45,000 48,000

3,000 3,200
3,000 3,200
1,500 1,500
7,500 7,900

6,500 6,500
14,000 14,400

1,000 1,000
2,000 2,000
18,050 18,550
21,050 21,550
35,050 35,950
9,950 12,050
45,000 48,000
Opsi 2 (Jika put option isi angka "1", jika call option isi angka "2")
Exercise 15,000
(boleh per unit atau total)
Premi 10,000

Tabel analisis 15,000

y (profit) x (harga)
-10,000 0 10,000
-10,000 10,000
-10,000 5,000
5,000
-10,000 15,000
0 25,000
0
10,000 35,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

-5,000

-10,000

-15,000
 Ingin cari tau profit/loss anda??? Silakan
Tidak Mengambil Opsi Call

Harga Pasar Saham

Profit/Loss (10,000) (kalo loss dia negatif)

BEP pada harga 25,000

0,000 35,000 40,000 Profit Maksimum Unlimited
Loss Maksimum -10,000

Penjelasan
Put Option Opsi Menjual
Call Option Opsi Membeli
FORWARD CONTRACT Kuning Diisi ya

INPUT
Need 1000000
Refining Cost $ 30
Hedge Vol 80%
Hedge Price $ 130

INPUT OUTPUT
Scenario Price Total Revenue Total Cost Total Refining Cost
$ 110 $ 165,000,000 $ 110,000,000 $ 30,000,000
$ 115 $ 165,000,000 $ 115,000,000 $ 30,000,000
$ 120 $ 165,000,000 $ 120,000,000 $ 30,000,000
$ 125 $ 165,000,000 $ 125,000,000 $ 30,000,000
$ 130 $ 165,000,000 $ 130,000,000 $ 30,000,000
$ 135 $ 165,000,000 $ 135,000,000 $ 30,000,000
$ 140 $ 165,000,000 $ 140,000,000 $ 30,000,000
$ 145 $ 165,000,000 $ 145,000,000 $ 30,000,000
$ 150 $ 165,000,000 $ 150,000,000 $ 30,000,000
$ 155 $ 165,000,000 $ 155,000,000 $ 30,000,000
$ 160 $ 165,000,000 $ 160,000,000 $ 30,000,000
Kalo Kurang di tarik ke bawah ya :)
 OPTION CONTRACT

Mencari Keputusan
Premium
Exercise Price
Selling Price
Keputusan
Profit/Loss

Unhedged Annual Profits Profit/Loss Hedged Annual Profits

$ 25,000,000 $ (16,000,000) $ 9,000,000 Mencari Selling Price
$ 20,000,000 $ (12,000,000) $ 8,000,000 Premium
$ 15,000,000 $ (8,000,000) $ 7,000,000 Exercise Price
$ 10,000,000 $ (4,000,000) $ 6,000,000 Selling Price
$ 5,000,000 $ - $ 5,000,000 Profit/Loss
$ - $ 4,000,000 $ 4,000,000
$ (5,000,000) $ 8,000,000 $ 3,000,000
$ (10,000,000) $ 12,000,000 $ 2,000,000 Mencari Exercise Price
$ (15,000,000) $ 16,000,000 $ 1,000,000 Premium
$ (20,000,000) $ 20,000,000 $ - Exercise Price
$ (25,000,000) $ 24,000,000 $ (1,000,000) Selling Price
Profit/Loss

Mencari Premium
Premium
Exercise Price
Selling Price
Profit/Loss
OPTION CONTRACT Kuning Diisi ya BLACK-SCHOLES PRICING MODEL Kuning Diisi ya

Mencari Keputusan
5
Exercise Price 25
Selling Price 30
Exercised
Profit/Loss 0

Mencari Selling Price

4
Exercise Price 25
Selling Price 32
Profit/Loss 3
INPUT
Current Price of Stock
Mencari Exercise Price Exercise Price
5 Time to Expiration (years)
Exercise Price 24 Variance in Stock Returns
Selling Price 32 Risk-free rate
Profit/Loss 3

Mencari Premium OUTPUT

4 d1 1.4843004
Exercise Price 25 d2 1.2843004
Selling Price 32 Call Option Value 7.9496242349
Profit/Loss 3
$ 32
$ 25
0.25
0.16
12%
 Cross Rate
Currency A/Foreign Currency Foreign Currency/A
B 1.2230000 0.8176615
C 0.9876000 1.0125557
D 0.5139000 1.9459039

B
= B 0.80752248569092 /C
C

Rumus - Rumus
 ARBITRAGE
Input Data
Investasi 1,000,000
Cross Rate 1.50618
implied cross Rate 1.50400

Steps Langkah yang rugi

1 Sells A to C
1,000,000

2 Sells C to B
543,183.053

3 Sells B to A
816,947.311
Gain(Loss)

Simbol A,B, C, dan D merupakan simbol dari suatu kurs negara..., kar
soal, maka dilakukan penyimbolan agar lebih umum.
lalu simbol A merupakan simbol home currency (currency domestic)
simbol B,C, dan D merupakan simbol foreign currency (simbol negara
 ARBITRAGE
Currency A/Foreign Currency
A B 1.2223
B/C C 1.841
B/C

Langkah yang Untung

C Sells A to B B
543,183.053 1,000,000 818,129.755

B Sells B to C C
816,947.311 818,129.755 543,969.252

A Sells C to A A
998,554.699 543,969.252 1,001,447.393
(1,445.301) 1,447.39

simbol dari suatu kurs negara..., karena kurs beragam yg nanti muncul di
n agar lebih umum.
home currency (currency domestic) contoh Rp di Indonesia
mbol foreign currency (simbol negara asing
 Capital Budgeti

Spot XRate : 0.9000 B/A

1 -year forward X Rate : 0.9300 B/A

Forward Exchange Rate for year n

Year Spot Exchange Rate Interest Rate Differential
Indirect Quotes
0 0.9000 0.9000
1 0.9000 1.0333 0.9300
2 0.9000 1.0678 0.9610
3 0.9000 1.1034 0.9930
4 0.9000 1.1401 1.0261
5 0.9000 1.1782 1.0603
7 0.9000 1.2580 1.1322
8 0.9000 1.2999 1.1699
 Capital Budgeting

Interest Rate Diff : 1.0333

Discount Rate : 18%

xchange Rate for year n

Year Cash Flow (in B) Implied Forward Rate (A/B)
direct Quotes
1.1111 0 -20 1.1111
1.0753 1 8 1.0753
1.0406 2 8 1.0406
1.0070 3 7 1.0070
0.9745 4 5 0.9745
0.9431 5 -
0.8832 7 -
0.8547 8 -

NPV : (2.1501)
Cash Flow (in A)

(22.2222)
8.6022
8.3247
7.0491
4.8727
-
-
-