Indonesia Financial Market &

Economy
Mirza Adityaswara
27 Agustus 2020
This is Economic crisis caused by Health crisis
Global Central banks maintain supportive policy to drive growth

Fed Balance Sheet and Fed Swap Line

3
Perekonomian Global Diprakirakan Membaik Pada Paruh Kedua 2020
•
perbaikan ekonomi mulai terlihat di beberapa negara, khususnya di Tiongkok, didorong dampak penyebaran
COVID-19 yang telah berkurang dan stimulus kebijakan fiskal yang besar.

4
Sumber : Bank Indonesia , PEREKONOMIAN TERKINI DAN RESPONS KEBIJAKAN, Agustus 2020
 5
Sumber : Macquarie Research , 14 July 2020, ASEAN
RAPBN 2021 : Percepatan Pemulihan Ekonomi dan Penguatan Reformasi

6
Sumber : Kemenkeu RI, Advertorial RAPBN 2021 Percepatan Pemulihan Ekonomi dan Penguatan Reformasi
Kebijakan PEN dilanjutkan di tahun 2021 (Rp356tn) untuk menjaga momentum
pemulihan ekonomi Indonesia

7
Sumber : Kemenkeu RI, Advertorial RAPBN 2021 Percepatan Pemulihan Ekonomi dan Penguatan Reformasi
Permintaan Domestik dan Ekspor Mulai Pulih pada Juli 2020

8
Sumber : Bank Indonesia , PEREKONOMIAN TERKINI DAN RESPONS KEBIJAKAN, Agustus 2020
Indonesia CAD has improved to below 2% GDP which helped
stability of rupiah
Transaksi Modal dan Finansial Membaik
Investasi portofolio pada Juli 2020 juga kembali mencatat net inflows sebesar 1,25 miliar dolar AS, meskipun
kondisi ketidakpastian pasar keuangan global masih tinggi

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Sumber : Bank Indonesia , PEREKONOMIAN TERKINI DAN RESPONS KEBIJAKAN, Agustus 2020
New Normal : Aktivitas masyarakat mulai pulih akan tetapi sulit kembali 100%

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Sumber : Mandiri Sekuritas, FOCUS |Equity Strategy Sector Update | 20 July 2020
Aktivitas Manufaktur Indonesia belum pulih

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Sumber : Mandiri Sekuritas, FOCUS |Equity Strategy Sector Update | 20 July 2020
Indonesia Car Sales slow recovery
June’s sales was 16% of January’s

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Sumber : Mandiri Sekuritas, FOCUS |Equity Strategy Sector Update | 20 July 2020
Indonesia Cement sector continue to recover
July’s sales volume was 85% of July’2019

14
Sumber : Mandiri Sekuritas, FLASH |Indocement Company Update | 18 August
Jasa Marga strong recovery
July’s revenue was only minus 10% of normal level

15
Sumber : Mandiri Sekuritas, FOCUS |Equity Strategy Sector Update | 20 July 2020
CPO price recovery, but coal price remained weak

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Sumber : Mandiri Sekuritas, FOCUS |Equity Strategy Sector Update | 20 July 2020
 The Rise of Tower Business :
Independent tower companies are on the rise, bolstered by two aspects of this
emerging industry: a strong focus on operational excellence and a fervent
exploration of new business models. Although voice growth is slowing in many
markets, data traffic is exploding and driving growth in additional 3G and 4G
tenancies and is leading to more in-building solutions and smaller cell sites. As
such, it is unlikely we will see the end of the tower growth story anytime soon
(source : AT Kearney).

SMN
(TOWR))
2Q200
Tekanan Inflasi Tetap Rendah , masih ada ruang penurunan BI Rate ?
Pada Juli 2020, Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) tercatat deflasi 0,10% (mtm) sehingga inflasi IHK sampai
Juli 2020 tercatat sebesar 0,98% (ytd) dan 1,54% (yoy),

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Sumber : Bank Indonesia , PEREKONOMIAN TERKINI DAN RESPONS KEBIJAKAN, Agustus 2020
Likuiditas Memadai dan Penurunan Suku Bunga Perbankan Berlanjut
Kondisi likuiditas lebih dari cukup . Hingga 14 Agustus 2020, BI telah menambah likuiditas di perbankan sekitar Rp651,54
triliun, yakni dari penurunan GWM sekitar Rp155 triliun dan melalui ekspansi moneter sekitar Rp480,7 triliun

Alat Likuid terhadap Dana Pihak Ketiga (AL/DPK) 26,24% pada Juni 2020 dan rendahnya PUAB, sekitar 3,64% pada Juli 2020.

• pertumbuhan M1 dan M2 pada Juni 2020 melambat menjadi 8,2% (yoy) dan 8,2% (yoy) dipengaruhi ekonomi yang belum
kuat.

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Sumber : Bank Indonesia , PEREKONOMIAN TERKINI DAN RESPONS KEBIJAKAN, Agustus 2020
Global Central Bank “ Real Rates”, BI has room to cut ?
BI Open Market Operation already
lower than BI7DRR rate
- Onshore banks has been buyer of SBN due to excess liquidity
- BI is supporting liquidity and stability by buying SBN
BRI : Permintaan restrukturisasi kredit sudah melandai

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Sumber : 1H’2020 – Financial Update Presentation PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) Tbk.
Walaupun ada relaksasi aturan restru kredit, Bank yang konservatif akan
melakukan biaya pencadangan NPL

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Sumber : Mandiri Sekuritas, FOCUS |Equity Strategy Sector Update | 20 July 2020
BCA : Strong PPOP balanced out higher loan provision

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Sumber : BCA Sekuritas, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 1H20 Results CorporatePresentation 27 July 2020
BRI : mulai menyalurkan kredit di bulan Juni IDR Trillion
Micro Consumer
22.1 21.9 5.3
18.7 18.3 4.1 3.9
15.8 3.2 3.3
2.5
10.4 1.8
8.2

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Jul
Small Commercial

7.1
6.4 6.4
5.9 5.8 ... Loans disbursement in Micro, Consumer
5.0
4.7 & Medium Segment is increasing …

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul
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Sumber : 1H’2020 – Financial Update Presentation PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) Tbk.
Infrastructure spending is recovering

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Sumber : Mandiri Sekuritas, FLASH |Construction Sector Update | 14 August 2020
Construction sector : Better outlook in 2021

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Sumber : Mandiri Sekuritas, FOCUS |Construction Sector Update | 10 August 2020
 United Tractor : Komatsu sales is recovering

Sumber : United Tractor, Operational Updates as of July 2020

Market Performance: 2020 YTD absolute and risk-adjusted returns
Sumber : Goldman Sachs, Portfolio Strategy Research 14 August 2020 | 4:46PM
EDT

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SBN 10 Year Yield has improved to 6.8%
BI support APBN financing, for temporary

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Sumber : cnbcindonesia.com/market-data/bonds/ID10YT
USD to IDR has stabilized but volatility risk remains on Covid
, financial stability, and corporate restructuring

Data provided by Morningstar for Currency and Coinbase for Cryptocurrency

32
Sumber : google.co.id/search?q=usd to idr
Indonesia CDS has improved significantly, but still room to go ?

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Sumber : worldgovernmentbonds.com
Goldman Sachs : bullish on US stock market

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Sumber : Goldman Sachs, Portfolio Strategy Research 14 August 2020 | 4:46PM
Low USD real yield, declining USD index, rising gold price