SUBSIDI BBM

DAN ENERGI
SERTA
EKONOMI
KERAKYATAN
Faisal Basri | 19 September 2022
Tinjauan Narasi tentang subsidi BBM bisa dilihat di:
menyeluruh
tentang https://faisalbasri.com/2022/08/28/kebijakan-sub
sidi-bbm-menegakkan-disiplin-anggaran/
subsidi BBM

Atau

https://twitter.com/FaisalBasri/status/1563747759
609757696
❌
Subsidi Energi
• Presiden Jokowi diwariskan
oleh subsidi energi yang
mencapai rekor tertinggi
sebesar Rp342 triliun pada
2014.
• Presiden Jokowi memangkas
subsidi energi dengan
menaikkan harga BBM dan
tarif listrik pada November
2014.
• Kini Jokowi pula yang
memecahkan rekor subsidi
energi riil dan terselubung
senilai Rp502,5 triliun pada
2022 (berdasarkan APBN
perubahan/ Perpres
98/2022).
• Bom waktu yang harus
dibayar mahal.
APBN-SUBSIDY-220819
Subsidi dan
konpensasi
BBM

* APBN Perubahan berdasarkan Perpres No. 98/2022.

Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan.
 Perkembangan belanja pemerintah pusat
(Rp triliun)

Growth Growth Growth

  2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022* 2023** 2014-2019 2019-2023 2014-2023
Personnel 243.7 281.1 305.1 312.7 346.9 376.1 380.5 387.8 416.6 442.6 54.3% 17.7% 81.6%
Material 176.6 233.3 259.6 291.5 347.5 334.4 422.3 530.1 406.0 379.3 89.3% 13.4% 114.8%
Capital 147.3 215.4 169.5 208.7 184.1 177.8 190.9 239.6 232.8 199.1 20.7% 12.0% 35.1%
Interest payments 133.4 156.0 182.8 216.6 258.0 275.5 314.1 343.5 403.9 441.4 106.5% 60.2% 230.8%
Subsidies 392.0 186.0 174.2 166.4 216.9 201.8 196.2 242.1 284.6 297.2 -48.5% 47.3% -24.2%
-Energy 341.8 119.1 106.8 97.6 153.5 136.9 108.8 140.4 208.9 210.7 76.9% 53.9% -38.4%
-Non-energy 50.2 66.9 67.4 68.8 63.4 64.9 87.4 101.7 75.7 86.5 29.5% 33.3% 72.5%
Grants 0.9 4.3 7.1 5.4 1.5 6.5 6.3 4.3 5.0 0.0 613.6% -99.8% -98.9%
Social assistance 97.9 97.2 49.6 55.3 84.3 112.5 202.5 173.7 143.7 148.6 14.9% 32.1% 51.7%
Others 11.7 10.1 6.0 8.8 16.2 11.7 120.0 79.7 477.5 321.9 0.4% 2,651.1% 2,662.6%
Total 1,203.6 1,183.3 1,154.0 1,265.4 1,455.3 1,496.3 1,833.0 2,000.7 2,370.0 2,230.0 24.3% 49.0% 85.3%
* APBN Perubahan berdasarkan Perpres No. 98/2022.
Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan.
ICP dan harga
minyak dunia

Sumber: Kementerian ESDM untuk Indonesia Crude Price (ICP); dan World Bank. ICP-OIL_PRICE-220828
 Harga BBM di berbagai negara, Juli/Agustus 2022
US$/liter

Sumber: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gasoline-prices?continent=world GASOLINE_PRICES_WORLDWIDE-220827

Harga minyak
Indonesia
(ICP) dan
asumsi APBN

Sumber: Kementerian ESDM untuk Indonesia Crude Price (ICP); dan ICP-OIL_PRICE-220828
Kementerian Keuangan untuk asumsi APBN
 R/P ratio 2020: 9.0
Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves
remaining at the end of any year are divided by the
Indonesia: production in that year, the result is the length of time
that those remaining reserves would last if production

oil proved were to continue at that rate.

reserves
(billion barrels)

Source: British Petroleum, Statistical Review of OIL_PROVED_RESERVES-INA-220725

World Energy, 71st edition, 2022.
2022 auto sales potentially surpass pre-pandemic levels
Motorcycle sales are still under pressure
 Laju inflasi merangkak naik mulai pertengahan
2021 dan mengakselerasi sejak awal 2022

Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik

 Penduduk miskin

Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik

Struktur harga BBM
 Oil lifting, production, and consumption

Source: British Petroleum, Statistical Review of World Energy, 71st edition, 2022; and Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. OIL PRODUCTION-CONSUMPTION-220716
Oil and gas trade balance
Mismanagement “A democratic power is never likely to perish for
lack of strength or of its resources, but it may very
of natural well fall because of the misdirection of its strength
and the abuse of its resources.”
resources can –Alexis de Tocqueville
threaten
democracy (Sebuah kekuatan Demokratik kemungkinan besar
tak akan binasa/lenyap dikarenakan minimnya
kekuatan atau kekurangan sumber dayanya, tetapi
kejatuhannya bisa disebabkan oleh salah tujuan/
penyesatan dari kekuatan tersebut dan
penyalahgunaan sumber daya.)
 Distribusi konsumsi Pertalite per desil

Konsumsi

Juta Kl
6 29.1% 30%

Pertalite 5 25%

4 20%

16.0%
3 15%

9.7%
2 10%
8.2% 8.2% 8.1%
7.4%
Roda 4: 70%; Roda 2: 30% 5.8%
1 4.4%
Roda 4 3.1%
5%

Mobil pribadi. : 98.7%

0.56 0.8 1.06 1.34 1.49 1.49 1.47 1.75 2.9 5.27
Taksi online. : 0.6% 0 0%

Taksi plat kuning: 0.3%

9
h)

i)
gg
da

tin
en
Angkot : 0.4%

er
er

(T
(T

10
1
Roda 2
Volume Persen-sumbu kanan
Motor pribadi: 97.8%
SUBSIDI_BBM-PERTALITE
Ojek/ojol. : 2.2% Sumber: BPS, Susenas 2020.
Selected
commodity
prices

Note: Since February 2022 Australian coal prices are not available, so they are changed to South African coal prices
Source: World Bank.
Penerimaan 300

PNBP SDA
250
• Sekalipun penerimaan
negara bukan pajak (PNBP)
dari sumber daya 200

alam(SDA) melonjak,
namun masih lebih rendah
dari 2014. 150

• Masih ada peluang untuk

lebih besar lagi, terutama 100
dari batu bara.
• Misalnya dengan
mengenakan pajak 50

lingkungan, selain juga

sangat beralasan untuk 0
mengenakan windfall tax 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022* 2023**

APBN-PNBP_SDA-220819
secara progresif sesuai
dengan UUD 1945, Pasal
33.
 Oil lifting, production, and consumption

* Outlook as of August. ** RAPBN OIL PRODUCTION-CONSUMPTION-220716

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
 Transaksi perdagangan migas dan nonmigas

* January-July..
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Trade balance of crude oil and oil products

* January-July.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Ikhtisar APBN, 2016-2023

* APBN Perubahan berdasarkan Perpres 98/2022. + Outlook per Agustus. ** RAPBN. APBN_POSTUR-220816
Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan.
 Composition of central government spending
Growth Growth Growth
  2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022* 2023** 2014-2019 2019-2023 2014-2023
Personnel 243.7 281.1 305.1 312.7 346.9 376.1 380.5 387.8 416.6 442.6 54.3% 17.7% 81.6%
Material 176.6 233.3 259.6 291.5 347.5 334.4 422.3 530.1 406.0 379.3 89.3% 13.4% 114.8%
Capital 147.3 215.4 169.5 208.7 184.1 177.8 190.9 239.6 232.8 199.1 20.7% 12.0% 35.1%
Interest payments 133.4 156.0 182.8 216.6 258.0 275.5 314.1 343.5 403.9 441.4 106.5% 60.2% 230.8%
Subsidies*** 392.0 186.0 174.2 166.4 216.9 201.8 196.2 242.1 284.6 297.2 -48.5% 47.3% -24.2%
-Energy 341.8 119.1 106.8 97.6 153.5 136.9 108.8 140.4 208.9 210.7 76.9% 53.9% -38.4%
-Non-energy 50.2 66.9 67.4 68.8 63.4 64.9 87.4 101.7 75.7 86.5 29.5% 33.3% 72.5%
Grants 0.9 4.3 7.1 5.4 1.5 6.5 6.3 4.3 5.0 0.0 613.6% -99.8% -98.9%
Social assistance 97.9 97.2 49.6 55.3 84.3 112.5 202.5 173.7 143.7 148.6 14.9% 32.1% 51.7%
Others 11.7 10.1 6.0 8.8 16.2 11.7 120.0 79.7 477.5 321.9 0.4% 2651.1% 2662.6%
Total 1,203.6 1,183.3 1,154.0 1,265.4 1,455.3 1,496.3 1,833.0 2,000.7 2,370.0 2,230.0 24.3% 49.0% 85.3%
*
Outlook as of August. ** RAPBN. *** Not included compensation fund.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Primary balance
(Rp triliun)
Tax ratio returns to single digit next year
2,500 14

13.3
Tax revenues (Rp trillions) - LHS Tax ratio (% of GDP) - RHS
13
12.5
2,000
12.2
12.0 12.4
11.5 12.3 12
11.4 11.3
11.2
1,500 10.9
11.3 11.1 10.7 11
10.4 10.3 10.3
10.5
10
1,000 9.8
9.9
9.6
9.1 9

500
8.3 8

0 7
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022* 2023**

*
Outlook as of August. ** RAPBN.
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
 • Setiap kebijakan hampir selalu ada trade off, tidak
bisa menyenangkan semua pihak. Pertimbangan
politik yang menentukan pilihan.
• Setiap keputusan politik menimbulkan economic
cost. Demikian pula sebaliknya: setiap keputusan
ekonomi menimbulkan political cost.
• Economic cost yang tak terkendali berpotensi
menimbulkan krisis ekonomi
Trade off • Satu instrumen kebijakan tidak bisa menyasar
berbagai tujuan.
• Subsidi versus kuota: semakin tinggi subsidi BBM
menyebabkan permintaan meningkat lebih cepat.
• Jika kuota tidak ditingkatkan, maka akan terjadi
kelangkaan atau antrean kian panjang. Ini
menimbulkan political cost yang mahal.
 GDP growth by expenditure
The growth of government consumption expenditure has contracted for two consecutive quarters, -
7.59% (first quarter) and -5.24% (second quarter), respectively. Investment (gross fixed capital
formation) has weakened and is relatively much lower than GDP growth.

* First semester. GDP_GROWTH_BY_EXPENDITURE-220216

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
 • Pemerintah meminta rakyat ikut menanggung
beban, padahal beban rakyat kecil sudah amat
berat.
• Tetapi pemerintah tak mau mengorbankan
berupa menunda pembangunan IKN baru
Mengusik rasa • Pemerintah tak punya nyali mengenakan
windfall profit terhadap perusahaan batu bara,
keadilan misalnya dengan mengenakan pajak ekspor 25
persen. Dari sini saja pendapatan pemerintah
tahun 2021 bisa mencapai Rp125 triliun dan
tahun ini bisa mencapai sekitar Rp200 triliun.
• BUMN disuntik besar-besaran senilai Rp72.4
triliun pada 2022.
Terima Kasih

•Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
•Twitter: @FaisalBasri
•Blog: faisalbasri.com