ANALYSIS AND
FEASIBILITY
Construction, Real Estate, Township
TUJUAN
Melalui materi mata kuliah ini, peserta diharapkan:
1. Dapat menjelaskan pengetahuan dasar tentang pengembangan real estate dan real estate
perusahaan
2. Memahami proses dalam pengembangan real estate.
3. Mampu menyusun ide dan penajaman ide proyek properti melalui pemahaman mengenai riset
pasar.
4. Memahami konsep fisibiliti pasar, analisa pasar dan riset pasar pengembangan real estate
5. Memahami aspek keuangan fisibiliti pengembangan real estate dan mampu menganalisanya.
6. Memahami dan mampu menghitung penetapan harga yang didasarkan pada permintaan penawaran
dan perilaku konsumen.
7. Mampu menyusun rencana sebuah fisibiliti pasar pengembangan real estate.
MATERI
1. Modul 1: Konsep dan jenis real estate dan property
2. Modul 2: Proses pengembangan real estate dan property
3. Modul 3: Pengantar ekonomi makro properti dan konstruksi
4. Modul 4: Market research
5. Modul 5: Marketability analysis
6. Modul 6: Market feasibility
BACAAN
1. Miles, Mike E, et al (2007). Real Estate Development: Principles and Process. Edisi ke-4. Urban
Land Institut.
2. Kyle, Robert C and Floyd M. Baird (1995) Property Management, edisi ke-5. Real Estate
Education Company.
Definition of an estate :
Possessory or potentially possessory interest in real estate
( Brueggeman, Fisher, 2001)
Classification of estates
a. Freehold estates
b. Leasehold estates
2 Market Research, Analysis, Feasibility
Legal Foundation
UUD 45
UU no 5 / 1960 ( UU Pokok Agraria )
UU no 7 / 1983 ( PPh )
UU no 12 / 1985 ( PBB )
UU no 16 / 1985 ( Rumah Susun )
UU no 4 / 1992 ( Perumahan dan Pemukiman)
UU no 4 / 1996 ( Hak Tanggungan atas tanah beserta
benda-benda yang berkaitan dengan tanah)
UU no 21 / 1997 ( BPHATB )
UU no 19 / 1999 ( Jasa Konstruksi )
UU no 28 / 2002 ( Bangunan Gedung )
UU no 32 / 2009 ( Perlindungan dan pengelolaan Lingkungan
Hidup )
Residensial Property
Industrial Property
Special-Purpose Property
Single occupancy
(owner/bukan)
1. Institusional
2. Single tenant
Multiple occupancy
1. Institusional
2. Multiple use
3. Single use
Tradisional Centre
1. Pasar
2. Ruko
3. Pusat pertokoan, Mall dsb
Specialized centers
factory outlet, pertokoan khusus
1. Heavy manufacturing
2. Light manufacturing manufacturing
3. Storage, warehouse
Hotel
Motel
Klub
Resort
Mobile home parks
Bioskop
Sekolahan
Kantor pemerintah
Bandar Udara
Stasiun Kereta Api
Kantor Pos
Managing Leases
3. Sewa periode-perperiode
Gross Lease
a. Umumnya untuk sewa apartemen
b. Straight lease
c. Penyewa membayar dalam jumlah yang pasti (fix)
d. Pemilik membayar seluruh beban untuk properti
Net Lease
a. Umumnya untuk industrial
b. Net lease, net-net lease
c. Penyewa membayar sebagian atau seluruh beban
(pajak, asuransi, utilitas dan perawatan)
Percentage Lease
a. Umumnya untuk sewa ritel
b. Fix sewa ditambah prosentase pemasukan kotor dari
penyewa (minimum penjualan)
c. Dibayar bulanan berdasarkan hitungan tahunan
d. Bayar fix bulanan (Rp) + 4% pendapatan kotor tahunan
1. RENTAL INCREASE
layanan >< konsekuensi ekonomi
2. RENTAL COLLECTION
efektif sistem, penalti, kesempatan persiapan hukum
3. TERMINATING THE TENANCY
Dijelaskan dalam kontrak
1. PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE
perawatan dan inspeksi rutin
2. CORRECTIVE MAINTENANCE
fungsi perlengkapan bangunan, utiliti, ac
3. ROUTINE MAINTENANCE
pembersihan (18% budget)
4. NEW CONSTRUCTION
Definisi
1. Harga sewa
Perawatan
Tiga area utama perawatan : operasional lift dan mesin
transportasi vertikal lain, pembersihan rutin, dan
pembangunan baru
I. Klasifikasi
II. Pemasaran
III. Leasing
IV. Perawatan
V. Administrasi
1. Area Pasar
a. Convenience centre
b. Neighborhood centre
c. Community centre
d. Regional centre
e. Superregional centre
2. Kepemilikan
a. Individual
b. Kelompok / partnership
c. Perusahaan
4. Barang Jualan
a. Discount department store
b. Specialty centre
c. Power centre
5. Mix Used
1. Signage
2. Advertising
3. Brochures
4. Direct Mail
5. Personal contact
6. Public relations
7. Leasing agents
1. Prospek Ritel
a. tenant
b. barang jualan
2. Percentage leases
a. straight percentage leases
b. variable scale
c. maximum
3. Negosiasi : rental rates, percentage leases, gross
sales, method of payment
STRATEGIC
Strategy and Analyses,Transactions
Decision and
Process Contractual
Commitment
Integration
Management
OPERATIONAL
Statement:
“The workplace is the most important and binding factor
between real estate management and facilities management
plus the Business Unit and Corporate objectives.”
44 Market Research, Analysis, Feasibility
Feasibility
Contract negotiation
Formal commitment
Construction
Completion
Idea
1. Brainstorming
2. Nominal group process
3. Delphi method
4. Environmental scanning
5. Focus group
6. Survey
Development
RISK CONTROL
Know yourself
Coordinate
Keep current
Behave ethically
Development
Steps (lanjutan) :
g. Tentukan cap rate
h. Kalikan cap rate dengan pendapatan neto
untuk mendapatkan nilai property
i. Hitung biaya tanah mentah + pembangunan
j. Bandingkan nilai properti dengan biaya
pengembangan
Planner Analyst
Promoter Creator
Negotiator Promoter
Provider provider
The Developer
Promoter Employer
Negotiator Client
Borrower Manager
Investment Partners
The Development
Capital Market Team
Building
Property law
permits
Technical Public
constraints infrastructure
Real estate
development
Financial
Zoning market rules
Ecology Social
issues issues
Objectives :
Maximum possible return while minimizing risks
Return :
Fee/ profit
Long term equity position
Cash flow
Personal pride
Reputation
PUBLIC SECTOR
Objectives :
Economic development goals
Sound development
Scope :
Property Law
Public Infrastructure
Financial and taxation rules
Zoning and building permits
Direct participants
DISPUTES
DELAY
√ RULES CHANGES
x
59 Market Research, Analysis, Feasibility
Financial Players
Joint Venture
Construction Lenders (Commercial Banks)
Permanent Lenders
Investors
Scope :
Legal interactions
Taxes
Land use
Contracts
PLAYERS :
Architects
Urban designers / Land planners
Engineers (Civil, M/E, Soil mechanics)
Landscape architects
Scope of Consultants :
Masterplan
Environments (ecology and
demography)
AMDAL
Transportation
Developers’ Characteristics
Long term commitments
Dealing with high uncertainty
Vary in ego and visibility
Developers’ Reputation
High impact on community and society
Vulnerable to criticize
Committed to ethical behavior
Factors :
Rumah tangga
Produsen
Pemerintah
Lembaga-Lembaga keuangan
Negara-negara lain
Struktur Pasar
Struktur pasar
Overview on Economics
World 4%
RoA 5,5%
LA 4%
Indonesia6,3%
2.0% 1.7%
1.3%
-0.3%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0% 6.0% 4.3% 4.6%
3.5%
2011 2012 2013 - 4.0%
2016 2.0%
• Asia 6.0% 3.1 4.0
%
4.7
%
0.0%
%
• Australasia 4.0%
2.0%
2011 2012 2013 -
2016
• North Africa and Middle East 0.0%
2011 2012 2013 -
• Sub-Saharan Africa 2016
• Western Europe 4.5% 4.3% 4.2% 6.0% 4.4% 4.8%
3.8%
• and • North America 4.0% 3.6% 4.0%
Overview on Economics
Office - Outlook
Ritel - outlook
TABEL 1.1 :
Liberalisasi industri ritel Indonesia
Pertumbuhan Omset Industri Ritel di Indonesia 1997-2001
sejak tahun 1998
Tahun 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Rata-
-
89,26
-36,06
85,82
-9,02
85,88
25,62
83,08
6,58
87,63
-3,22
Tahun 2001, 5000 outlet,
Ritel
(%)
Omset 13 16 20 25 33 21,4 investasi USD 3,67 milyar
Mo- (milyar Rp)
dern Segmen 5,88 10,74 14,18 14,12 16,92 12,37
(%)
Pertumbuhan - 23,08 25,00 25,00 32,00 26,27
Tahun 2005 1900 outlet, investasi
Total
Ritel
(%)
Omset
(milyar Rp)
221 149 141 177 195 176 USD 8,75 milyar
Segmen 100 100 100 100 100 100
(%)
Pertumbuhan - -32,58 -5,37 25,53 10,17 -0,56
Kompetisi industri sangat kuat,
(%)
Sumber : Diolah dari Krisnamurthi dan Lusi (2004:5) pasar hiperkompetitif terutama
sejak dibukanya investasi asing.
Ritel - outlook
TABEL 1.3
Pertumbuhan Omset Industri Ritel di Indonesia 1997-2001
Menurut Kota Besar di Indonesia
Manufacturing
Public sector 44% Companies
13%
21%
Service companies
Sales analysis 92
Studies of business trends 91
Short range forecasting 89
Competitive product studies 87
Long range forecasting 87
Pricing studies 83
of this:
Steps
Distinguish between Decide on Information is Statistical Overall conclusions
the research type - budget collected manipulation of to be presented
needed e.g. according to the data collected rather than
- data sources
the plan (N.B. (e.g. regression) overwhelming
- exploratory - research or subjective
approaches it is often done statistical
- descriptive analysis of focus methodologies
- research by external
- causal firms) groups
instruments
- sampling plan
- contact methods
Comments
If a problem is The plan needs This phase is Significant Can take various
vaguely defined, to be decided the most costly difference in forms:
the results can upfront but and the most type of analysis - oral presentation
have little flexible enough liable to error according to
- written conclusions
bearing on the to incorporate whether market supported by analysis
key issues changes/ research is
iterations quantitative or - data tables
qualitative
Market Research
Internal Sources
Company Accounts
Internal Reports and Analysis
Stock Analysis
Retail data - loyalty cards, till data, etc.
Sampling Methods
Sampling Methods:
Random Samples – equal chance of anyone being picked
May select those not in the target group – indiscriminate
Sample sizes may need to be large
to be representative
Can be very expensive
Market Research
Quota Sampling
Again – by segment, Not randomly selected
Specific number on each segment are interviewed, etc.
May not be fully representative
Cheaper method
Cluster Sampling
Primarily based on geographical areas or ‘clusters’ that
can be seen as being representative of the whole
population
Multi-Stage Sampling
Sample selected from multi-stage
sub-groups
Snowball Sampling
Samples developed from contacts
of existing customers – ‘word of mouth’ type approach!
104 Market Research, Analysis, Feasibility
Market Research
Primary Research
First hand information
Expensive to collect, analyse and evaluate
Can be highly focussed and relevant
Care needs to be taken with the approach and
methodology to ensure accuracy
Types of question – closed – limited information gained;
open – useful information but difficult to analyse
Quantitative and Qualitative Information:
Quantitative – based on numbers – 56% of 18 year olds
drink alcohol at least four times a week - doesn’t tell you
why, when, how
Qualitative – more detail – tells you why, when and how!
Market Research
Level of research
Indirect Factors
Factors:
* Topography and soil conditions,
* engineering,
* production process,
* zoning, utilities,
* transportation linkages,
* environmental impact,
* public facilities & amenities,
* consumer behaviour,
* economic conditions,
* and government law and regulations.
Market Position
Market Objectives
Which Segment?
Market Structure
Marketability Analysis
• Study of a specific development or property to assess
its competitive position
Studies That Focus on Individual Decisions
Feasibility Analysis
• Evaluates a specific project as to whether or not it is
likely to be carried out successfully
Investment Analysis
• Evaluates a specific property as a potential
investment. Investor specific.
6. Subjects marketability
Capture Analysis
7. Does the subject make financial sense?
Is it a good investment?
What is its market value?
Is the property’s value more than its cost?
• I.e.: is there any entrepreneurial reward for the
risk?
Feasibility Analysis and/or Highest and Best Use
A. Physical Attributes
B. Legal and Regulatory Attributes
Private
Public
C. Location Attributes
Identification of economic attributes – the association
between land uses and their linkages
Identification of the movement of demand in relation
to the direction of urban growth
A. Competitive environment
B. Residual Demand Concepts
Emphasis is on:
Emphasis is on:
Quantifiable data
Instinctive knowledge
Forecast
Historical Data
Project Type
Project Size
Client Needs
________________________
Buyers Demand Supply Properties
New
Construction Asset
Market
Cash Market
Development Flow Require
Industry Pro- d Rate Owners
YES of Sellers
Forma
Return
Profitable? Cost Property given
Risk Investors
Including Value Buyers
Land Profile
NO
Capital
Markets
149 Market Research, Analysis, Feasibility
Schedule Feasibility
Legal Feasibility
Selesai
1. Ide adalah tahap awal dari sebuah proses pengembangan properti/real estate, kemudian
penyempurnaan ide akan memerlukan sebuah analisis pasar. Sebagai sebuah perusahaan
di bidang properti, Paramaount Land memiliki kepentingan untuk mengembangkan
properti/real estate, baik dalam kepentingan bisnis properti ataupun dalam kepentingan
properti perusahaan.
3. Anda bisa mengembangkan ide pengembangan real estate menurut tipe properti yaitu:
residensial, atau komersial ritel, atau komersial perkantoran, atau industrial estate, atau
properti khusus. Contoh dari real estate/properti yang sudah ada:
(a) Bisnis properti: Hotel.
(b) Properti/real estate perusahaan: Kantor pusat
A. Menurut Investing Indonesia 2001 dari The Trade, Tourism & Investment
Promotion Board Indonesian Chamber of Commerce, PT Indo Multi Media MNC
Group Jakarta, Indonesia, disebutkan bahwa pemerintah merencanakan untuk
mengembangkan Bangkalan Madura sebagai zona industri. Berikan argumentasi
anda tentang rencana tersebut. Pertimbangkan argumentasi anda pada :
1. Karakteristik dan klasifikasi industrial estate.
2. Analisis pasar dan properti dari industri yang dituju.
B. Dari 3 retail properti yang ada – pilih salah satu, Jawablah pertanyaan berikut ini :
1. Jelaskan klasifikasi retail properti tersebut menurut: (a) market area, (b) pola
desain bangunan.
2. Mendasarkan pada kelas dan kualitas retailer penyewanya, menurut anda
apakah ketiga retail properti tersebut memiliki harga sewa yang sama. Berikan
penjelasan anda melalui (a) contoh retailer penyewa yang sama pada ketiga
retail properti ter- sebut dan (b) retailer penyewa pada umumnya di ketiga retail
properti tersebut.
C. Jelaskan peluang pasar untuk bisnis properti Jakarta berdasarkan data market
research yang anda miliki. Dan jelaskan perbedaannya. Tinjau kondisi supply dan
demand atau lainnya dan bedakan menurut tipe properti ritel, perkantoran, dan
industrial estate.