TUJUAN
1. Understand the meaning and fundamentals of risk,
return, and risk preferences.
Expected return rˆ Pr
1k̂(nk ) 1kPr
1 P 1 2
k 22 )k2
(P Prn P(knnk)n
......
n Pi k i
i Pr 1 i (ki )
i 1
dimana:
Pi = probabilitas terjadinya return ke-i
ri = besarnya return ke-i n
( k i kˆ ) 2 Pi
i 1
k̂
Pengukuran pengembalian yang
diharapkan
Kondisi ekonomi
Probabilita Arus kas
investasi
Persentase
pengembalian
Risiko
Risiko sistematis
0 Jumlah saham
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Sumber RISIKO
Interest Rate Risk
Market Risk
Inflation Risk
Business Risk
Financial Risk
Liquidity Risk
Exchange Rate Risk
Country Risk
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Rumus untuk menghitung risiko aset tunggal:
1. Menggunakan ukuran
Variance 2
standar deviasi: n 2
Standar deviasi (σ ) ri r Pi .
i 1
Ada satu hal menarik dalam konsep risiko portofolio. Portofolio mampu
memberikan ‘keajaiban’ berupa manfaat pengurangan risiko total, tanpa
mengurangi tingkat return yang diharapkan.
Konsep ini terkait dengan apa yang dinamakan ‘korelasi’, yang bisa diukur
dengan koefisien korelasi (r). Korelasi menunjukkan kecenderungan arah
pergerakan dua variabel secara bersamaan. Ilustrasi berikut ini diharapkan
bisa menjelaskan konsep tersebut.
σ p = w σ +w σ
1 1 2 2 + 2 w1 w2 ρ12 σ1 σ2
RISIKO DALAM KONTEKS PORTOFOLIO
Portfolio Variance w w 2
p
N N
i j ij
i 1 j 1
N N
wi w j ij i j
2
p
i 1 j 1
2 2 2 2
σ p = w σ
1 1 + w2 σ2 + 2 w1 w2 ρ12 σ1 σ2
KOEFISIEN KORELASI
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Dalam konteks diversifikasi, korelasi menunjukkan
sejauhmana return dari suatu sekuritas terkait satu
dengan lainnya:
jika i,j = +1,0; berarti korelasi positif sempurna
jika i,j = -1,0; berarti korelasi negatif sempurna
jika i,j = 0,0; berarti tidak ada korelasi
Konsep koefisien korelasi yang penting:
1. Penggabungan dua sekuritas yang berkorelasi positif sempurna
(+1,0) tidak akan memberikan manfaat pengurangan risiko.
2. Penggabungan dua sekuritas yang berkorelasi nol, akan mengurangi
risiko portofolio secara signifikan.
3. Penggabungan dua buah sekuritas yang berkorelasi negatif
sempurna (-1,0) akan menghilangkan risiko kedua sekuritas tersebut.
4. Dalam dunia nyata, ketiga jenis korelasi ekstrem tersebut (+1,0; 0,0;
dan –1,0) sangat jarang terjadi.
Contoh : Invest 50% in Stock A and 50% in Stock B.
Compute: The expected return and standard deviation the
portfolio
Probability Return
A B
0,1 14% 6%
0,2 12% 8%
0,4 10% 10%
0,2 18% 12%
0,1 6% 14%
rˆ 10% 10%
σ 2,2% 2,2%
Salah satu konsep penting dalam model indeks tunggal
adalah terminologi Beta ().
Beta merupakan ukuran kepekaan return sekuritas terhadap
return pasar. Semakin besar beta suatu sekuritas, semakin
besar kepekaan return sekuritas tersebut terhadap perubahan
return pasar.
𝛃 = Cov (rᵢ,rₘ) / Var(rₘ)
𝛃ₛ = (ρ) (σₛ/σₘ)
What measure of risk is relevant in capital
budgeting.
In capital budgeting, a project can be looked at on three levels.
1. First, there is the project standing alone risk, which is a project’s
risk ignoring the fact that much of this risk will be diversified
away as the project is combined with the firm’s other projects
and assets.
2. Second, we have the project’s contribution-to-firm risk, which is
the amount of risk that the project contributes to the firm as a
whole; this measure considers the fact that some of the project’s
risk will be diversified away as the project is combined with the
firm’s other projects and assets, but ignores the effects of
diversification of the firm’s shareholders.
3. Finally, there is systematic risk, which is the risk of the project
from the viewpoint of a well-diversified shareholder; this
measure considers the fact that some of a project’s risk will be
diversified away as the project is combined with the firm’s other
projects, and, in addition, some of the remaining risk will be
diversified away by shareholders as they combine this stock
with other stocks in their portfolio
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Capital Budgeting and Risk
Analysis
A. The certainty equivalent approach
B. The risk-adjusted discount rate
A. The certainty equivalent approach
The certainty equivalent approach involves a direct attempt to allow
the decision maker to incorporate his or her utility function into the
analysis.
n
t ACFt
NPV = (1 i F ) t
- I0 t=
certain cash flow t
t 1 risky cash flow t
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Example : Certainty Equivalents
NPV = $19.902,50
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B. The risk-adjusted discount rate
The use of the risk-adjusted discount rate is based on
the concept that investors demand higher returns for
more risky projects.
n
ACFt
NPV = (1 i*) t - IO
t 1
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Example: Risk Adjusted Discount Rate
A toy manufacturer is considering the introduction of a line of
fishing equipment with an expected life of five years. In the past,
this firm has been quite conservative an its investment in new
products, sticking primarily to standard toys. In this context, the
introduction of a line of fishing equipment is considered an
abnormally risky project. Management thinks that the normal
required rate of return for the firm of 10 percent is not sufficient.
Instead, the minimally acceptable rate of return on this project
should be 15 percent. The initial outlay would be $110.000, and the
expected free cash flows from this project are as given below:
Year Expected cash flow
1 $30.000
2 $30.000
3 $30.000
4 $30.000
5 $30.000
r = 15 % NPV: -$9.440
r = 10% NPV = $3.730
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