Perusahaan
KELOMPOK II:
FEBY LESTARI (P2100214087)
DARMAWATI (P2100214045)
KAMARUDDIN (P2100214062)
Gunakan
Equity Valuation
Gunakan
Penilaian Perusahaan
atau lebih rendah dari Arus Kas terhadap Ekuitas. (Apa yang
penting? ... Sebagai aturan praktis, jika dividen kurang dari 80%
dari FCFE atau dividen lebih besar dari 110% dari FCFE selama
periode 5 tahun, menggunakan model FCFE)
b) Untuk perusahaan mana dividen tidak tersedia (Contoh:
Perusahaan Swasta, IPO)
besar
Choosea
CashFlow
Dividends
ExpectedDividendsto
Stockholders
CashflowstoEquity
CashflowstoFirm
NetIncome
EBIT(1taxrate)
(1)(CapitalExp.Deprecn) (CapitalExp.Deprecn)
ChangeinWork.Capital
(1)ChangeinWork.Capital
=FreeCashflowtoEquity(FCFE) =FreeCashflowtoFirm(FCFF)
[=DebtRatio]
&ADiscountRate
CostofEquity
CostofCapital
Basis:Theriskiertheinvestment,thegreateristhecostofequity.
WACC=ke(E/(D+E))
Models:
CAPM:RiskfreeRate+Beta(RiskPremium)
+kd(D/(D+E))
kd =CurrentBorrowingRate(1t)
E,D:MktValofEquityandDebt
APM:RiskfreeRate+Betaj(RiskPremiumj):nfactors
&agrowthpattern
StableGrowth
TwoStageGrowth
g
ThreeStageGrowth
g
|
t
HighGrowth
Stable
|
HighGrowth
Transition
Stable
No
Is leverage stable or
likely to change over
time?
Use dividend
discount model
No
Use current
earnings as
base
Is the cause
temporary?
Yes
Stable
leverage
Unstable
leverage
FCFE
FCFF
Stable growth
model
No
Replace current
earnings with
normalized
earnings
Is the firm
likely to
survive?
Yes
2-stage
model
Yes
No
Adjust
margins over
time to nurse
firm to financial
health
Yes
Value Equity
as an option
to liquidate
No
Estimate
liquidation
value
No
3-stage or
n-stage
model
Perusahaan
Model yang digunakan
Keterangan
Con Ed
DDM Stabil
Dividen = FCFE, Stabil D / E, Low g
ABN Amro
2-Tahap DDM
FCFE = ?, Diatur D / E, g> Stabil
S & P 500
2-Tahap DDM
kolektif, pasar merupakan investasi
Nestle
2-Tahap FCFE
Dividen FCFE, Stabil D / E, tinggi g
Tsingtao
3-Tahap FCFE
Dividen FCFE, Stabil D / E, tinggi g
DaimlerChrysler Stabil FCFF
Laba Normalized; stabil Sektor
Tabung Investasi2 tahap FCFF?
Nilai pertumbuhan
Embraer
2-tahap FCFF
Emerging Market (tidak ...)
Global Crossing 2-tahap FCFF
Berurusan dengan Distress
Amazon.com
n-tahap FCFF
Berbagai margin dari waktu ke waktu
dengan FCFE.
- FCFE Tahunan rata-rata antara 1999 dan 2004 = $
635.000.000
- Dividen Tahunan rata-rata antara 1999 dan 2004 =
$624.000.000
- Dividen sebagai % dari FCFE = 98%
Untuk
Mengingat
ConEd:EstimatedValueversusPricepershhare
60
50
40
EstimatedValue
Pricepershare
30
20
10
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Market Inputs
4.35%
Risk Premium = 4% (U.S. premium :
Netherlands is AAA rated)
Current Earnings Per Share = 1.85 Eur; Current DPS = 0.90 Eur;
Variable
High Growth Phase Stable Growth Phase
Length
5 years
Forever after yr 5
Return on Equity 16.00%
8.35% (Set = Cost of
equity)
Payout Ratio
48.65%
52.10% (1 - 4/8.35)
Retention Ratio
51.35%
47.90% (b=g/ROE=4/8.35)
Expected growth .16*.5135=..0822
4% (Assumed)
Beta
0.95
1.00
Cost of Equity
4.35%+0.95(4%)
4.35%+1.00(4%)
=8.15%
= 8.35%
Tahun EPS
DPS
PV dari DPS (di 8,15%)
1
2.00 0.97
0.90
2
2,17 1,05
0,90
3
2,34 1,14
0,90
4
2,54 1,23
0,90
5
2,75 1,34
0,90
EPS diharapkan pada tahun 6 = 2,75 (1,04) = 2,86 Eur
Diharapkan DPS pada tahun 6 = 2,86 * 0,5210 = 1,49 Eur
Terminal Harga (tahun 5) = 1,49 / (. 0835-,04) = 34,20
Eur
PV dari Terminal Harga = 34,20 / (1,0815) 5 = 23.11Eur
Nilai Per Share = + 0,90 + 0,90 0,90 + 0,90 + 0,90
+ 23,11
= 27,62 Eur
Saham diperdagangkan pada 18,55 euro pada 31
Desember 2003
VALUINGABNAMRO
Retention
Ratio=
51.35%
Dividends
EPS=
1.85Eur
*PayoutRatio48.65%
DPS= 0.90Eur
ValueofEquityper
share=27.62Eur
EPS 2.00Eur
DPS 0.97Eur
ROE=16%
ExpectedGrowth
51.35%*
16%=8.22%
g=4%:ROE=8.35%(=Costofequity)
Beta=1.00
Payout=(14/8.35)=.521
TerminalValue=EPS6*Payout/(rg)
=(2.86*.521)/(.0835.04)=34.20
2.17Eur
1.05Eur
2.34Eur
1.14Eur
2.54Eur
1.23Eur
2.75Eur
1.34Eur
.........
Forever
DiscountatCostofEquity
CostofEquity
4.95%+0.95(4%)=8.15%
RiskfreeRate:
Longtermbondratein
Euros
4.35%
Beta
0.95
AveragebetaforEuropeanbanks=
0.95
RiskPremium
4%
MatureMarket
4%
CountryRisk
0%
P0 =
t=n
DPS0*(1+gn) DPS0 +
r
(rgn )
DPS0
r
General Inputs
4.22%
Risk Premium for U.S. Equities = 4%
Current level of the Index = 1211.92
Inputs for the Valuation
High Growth Phase
Length
5 years
Dividend Yield
1.60%
Expected Growth
8.5%
Beta
1.00
1
$21.06
2
$22.85
3
$24.79
4
$26.89
$19.46
$609.98
$19.51
$19.56
$19.61
5
$29.18
$760.28
$531.86
760.28
Menjelaskan Perbedaan
Indeksberadapada1212,sementaramodelvaluasimasukdi
610.Halinimenunjukkanbahwasatuataulebihdariberikut
harusbenar.
DiskondividenModelunderstatesnilaikarenadividenkurang
dariFCFE.
Pertumbuhanyangdiharapkanlabaselama5tahunkedepanakan
jauhlebihtinggidari8%.
Premirisikoyangdigunakandalamperhitungan(4%)terlalu
tinggi
Pasardinilaiterlalutinggi.
2
$41.38
3
$44.89
4
$48.71
$35.33
$35.42
$35.51
5
$52.85
$1,377.02
$963.29
Pada tingkat 1.112, pasar dinilai terlalu tinggi oleh sekitar 10%.
StableGrowth
NA
15.38% 4.00%
9.30% (Grow with earnings)
150%
Memperkirakan Premium
Risiko untuk Nestle
Revenues
North America
South America
Switzerland
Germany/France/UK
Italy/Spain
Asia
Rest of W. Europe
Eastern Europe
Total
Weight
17.5
4.3
1.1
18.4
6.4
5.8
13
4
70.5
Risk Premium
24.82%
4.00%
6.10%
12.00%
1.56%
4.00%
26.10%
4.00%
9.08%
5.50%
8.23%
9.00%
18.44%
4.00%
5.67%
8.00%
100.00% 5.26%
Nestle: Valuation
1
2
3
4
5
Earnings
$125.63
$144.95
$167.25
$19
$222.66
- (Net CpEX)*(1-DR)
$29.07 $33.54 $38.70 $44.65 $51.52
-D WC*(1-DR)
$16.25 $18.75 $21.63 $24.96 $28.79
Free Cashflow to Equity $80.31 $92.67 $106.92
$123.37
$14
Present Value
$74.04 $78.76
$83.78
$89.12