Ekonomi Teknik

Teknik Industri Unsika Ahmad Surahman

Ekonomi
Ilmu Ekonomi merupakan ilmu pengetahuan yang berhubungan dengan alokasi sumberdaya. Sumberdaya: Sumber daya alam Sumber daya manusia Sumber daya teknologi Sumber daya pembiayaan

Ekonomi Teknik
Ekonomi teknik merupakan suatu evaluasi sistematis terhadap keuntungan ekonomi dari setiap solusi permasalahan enjiniring(1). Ekonomi teknik merupakan aplikasi dari evaluasi desain dan alternatif solusi enjiniring. Peranan ekonomi teknik adalah untuk meninjau kesesuaian dari proyek yang diberikan, memperkirakan nilainya dan menilai dari sudutpandang enjiniring(2).
1 Lecture Notes by Randolph Kirchain, Engineering Economics: Comparing Financial Characteristics of Design Options. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Materials Science & Engineering 2 ASTM E833, Definitions of Terms Relating to Building Economics,American Society for Testing and Materials, West Conshohocken, PA (1999).

Masalah

Simple problem, merupakan masalah yang solusinya tidak memerlukan terlalu banyak pertimbangan dan analisis karena masalah itu bukanlah sesuatu yang terlalu penting. Intermediate problem, merupakan masalah yang solusinya memerlukan pertimbangan dan analisis pada suatu bidang tertentu. Complex problem, merupakan masalah rumit yang solusinya memerlukan pertimbangan dan analisis pada berbagai bidang ilmu.

Analisa Ekonomi Teknik

Masalah yg cocok: Cukup penting, memerlukan pemikiran dan upaya serius. Tidak bisa dikerjakan sendiri, masalah perlu dirumuskan, disusun dan dianalisa secara hati2 dengan berbagai akibatnya. Mempunyai aspek ekonomi yang dominan sebagai komponen analisa bagi pengambilan keputusan

Proses Pengambilan Keputusan (Engineering)

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Pengenalan masalah. Pendefinisian sasaran atau tujuan. Mengumpulkan data yang relevan. Mengidentifikasi aftematif-altematif yang mungkin, Seleksi Kriteria untuk memutuskan diantara altematifaltematif. Membangun model. Prediksi hasil untuk tiap altematif. Memilih aftematif terbaik untuk mencapai tujuan. Pemeriksaan Pasca Keputusan

1. Pengenalan Masalah
Masalah bisa muncul dari luar organisasi bisnis/perusahaan : misal peraturan baru. dan/atau dari dalam perusahaan misal kesalahan produksi. Mengetahui masalah saja tidak cukup, perlu dikenali, siapa yang bisa melakukan sesuatu terhadap masalah tsb Seringkali masalah dikenali oleh sekelompok pekerja atau pada area/fungsi tertentu, tapi kurang dikenali oleh orang akan mengawali proses pengambilan keputusan

2. Definisikan Sasaran/Tujuan
Tidak selaluharus besar dan menyeluruh/umum seperti menghasilkan laba; bisa sempit, terbatas, spesifik: Memproduksi 300 mobil dalam 2 minggu, melunasi cicilan mobil di bulan Juni 2013 Setiap hal yang bisa menghambat pencapaian sasaran/tujuan adalah masalah

3. Pengumpulan Data yg Relevan

Sumber data penting untuk konsekuensi finansial: sistem akuntansi perusahaan, sistem keuangan dan akuntansi biaya menunjukkan aliran uang dan nilai akuntansi : biaya dan manfaat ( costs n benefits), biaya langsung, biaya tak langsung. ( exercise 3-1 Newnan ) Memuaskan utk kepentingan akuntansi biaya, belum tentu untuk kepentingan analisa ekonomi. Perlu dicari true differences diantara pilihan2 , mungkin diperlukan beberapa penyesuaian Konsekuensi Pasar: Semua konsekuensiyangsudah mempunyai harga pasar, harga material, mesin, buruh dll Konsekuensi diLuar Pasar ( extra market) : tidak secara langsung harga pasar, tapi bisa dialokasikan ( shadow prices ), misal : machine breakdowns, kecelakaan kerja, perubahan waktu kerja dll Konsekuensi tak ternilai ( intangibles ) : analisis ekonomi numerik tidak selalu menggambarkan perbedaan antar alternatip secara penuh. Ada yang tidak bisa dikonversi ke nilai uang. Misal dampak lingkungan, dampak thd etos kerja, perubahan budaya kerja, etika dll

Sudut pandang ahli EKTEK

Akuntan
Melihat ke masa lalu

NOW

Ahli Ektek
Melihat ke masa datang

Manajer Teknik

10

4. Identifikasi Pilihan/Alternatip
Cari semua pilihan yang mungkin ( possible alternatives ), pilhan konvensional dan innovatip. brainstorming akan sangat membantu. Buat daftar pilihan yang praktis maupun tidak praktis. Buang pilihan yng tidak layak: misal tidak memenuhi kaidah2 ilmiah, melanggar hukum/etika, material tidak bisa diperoleh, target waktu tidak bisa dipenuhi. Pilihan yang layak dapat dianalisa lebih lanjut. Dua alternatip sering diabaikan: do-nothing alternative dan feasible but unglamorous alternatives.

5. Memilih Kriteria Keputusan

3 kategori masalah analisa ekonomi: Fixed Input ( Masukan Tertentu ) : Maksimasi manfaat ( benefit ) Fixed Output ( Keluaran Tertentu ) : Minimasi biaya ( costs ) Neither Input nor output fixed ( Masukan atau keluaran tidak menentu ) : Maksimasi Manfaat Costs atau Maksimasi Laba

6. Pembuatan Model
Semua element dipadukan: tujuan/sasaran, data relevan, pilihan2 layak, kriteria keputusan. Hubungan bisa sederhana atau rumit. Bisa model fisik atau matematis Analisa ekonomi : model matematis

7. Prediksi Hasil (outcome) Tiap Altematif

Semua hasil (outcomes) dari setiap pilihan harus diatur/disusun dengan cara yang bisa dibandingkan ( comparable way ). Buat perhitungan2 matematis untuk semua pilihan agar perbandingan bisa mempunyai arti. Nyatakan semua konsekuensi dalam uang. Mulai dari Biaya Manfaat, konsekuensi pasar dan diluar pasar. Intangibles umumnya sulit dimasukkan ke dalam perhitungan numerik, termasuk kapan ( timing) terjadinya. Buat table arus kas ( cash flow table ). Parameter ekonomi a.l. Present Worth, Annual Cost, Rate of Return, Payback Period adalah beberapa alat yang bisa digunakan untuk mengolah tabel arus kas , agar pilihan dapat dibandingkan.

8. Memilih Alternatip Terbaik

Solusi model menggunakan kriteria keputusan dengan 7 tahap diatas memudahkan utk memilih alternatip terbaik secara numerik. Namun konsekuensi intangible belum masuk dalam perhitungan. Walaupun konsekuensi ekonomi dominan dan intangibles dianggap kurang penting, alternatip yang harus dipilih adalah yang terbaik yang memenuhi konsekuensi ekonomi dan konsekuensi yang tidak dihitung dengan nilai uang.

9. Pemeriksaan Pasca Keputusan ( Post Audit of Results )

Analisa ekonomi berdasarkan data proyeksi masa depan. Post Audit Review diperlukan untuk mengetahui apakah data proyeksi dapat dicapai. Mengantisipasi kesalahan yng mungkin terjadi di masa depan. Semua orang yang terlibat perlu diberitahu bahwa semua hasil akan diaudit.

Investasi
Investasi atau penanaman modal adalah menyangkut penggunaan sumber-sumber yang diharapkan akan memberikan imbalan (pengembalian) yang menguntungkan di masa yang akan datang. (Suratman, 2001:6) Faktor yang terlibat dalam investasi : Waktu Resiko Secara umum Investasi dibedakan menjadi dua jenis ; Investasi finansial Investasi nyata

Faktor yang dipertimbangkan untuk pemilihan peralatan :

faktor suku bunga (interest), biaya awal (first cost), biaya eksploatasi (exploatation cost=biaya operasi dan pemeliharaan) yang akan dikeluarkan setiap tahun, nilai jual kembali (resale value) peralatan pada akhir umur ekonomisnya, overhaul cost, pendapatan-pendapatan yang diterima selama umur ekonomis, perkiraan umur ekonomis dalam tahun atau periode pengembalian modal.

Parameter Ekonomi :
laju pengembalian modal (rate of return), ekivalensi nilai bersih sekarang (net present value), indeks keuntungan (profitability index), berapa lama investasi akan kembali (payback period), ekivalensi nilai arus kas tahunan (uniform annual cash-flow), ratio pendapatan terhadap biaya (benefitcost ratio).

Prinsip Dasar Ekonomi Teknik Principle 1: A nearby dollar is worth more than a distant dollar ( moneys time value = konsep nilai waktu uang , bunga ) Principle 2: All it counts is the differences among alternatives Principle 3: Marginal revenue must exceed marginal cost Principle 4: Additional risk is not taken without the expected additional return

Chapter 3
Interest and Equivalence

Nilai Waktu Uang

Money has value
Money can be leased or rented
The payment is called interest If you put $100 in a bank at 9% interest for one time period you will receive back your original $100 plus $9

Original amount to be returned = $100 Interest to be returned = $100 x .09 = $9

Simple Interest
Interest that is computed only on the original sum or principal Total interest earned = I = P i n , where:
P = present sum of money, or principal (example: $1000) i = interest rate (10% interest is a .10 interest rate) n = number of periods (years) (example: n = 2 years)
I = $1000 x .10/period x 2 periods = $200

Future Value of a Loan With Simple Interest

Amount of money due at the end of a loan
F = P + P i n or F = P (1 + i n ) Where,
F = future value
F = $1000 (1 + .10 x 2) = $1200

Simple interest is not used today

Compound Interest
Compound Interest is used and is computed on the original unpaid debt and the unpaid interest. Year 1 interest = $1000 (.10) = $100
Year 2 principal is, therefore: $1000 + $100 = $1100

Year 2 interest = $1100 (.10) = $110 Total interest earned is: $100 + $110 = $210 This is $10 more than with simple interest

Compound Interest (Contd)

Future Value (F) = P + Pi + (P + Pi)i = P (1 + i + i + i 2) = P (1+i)2 = 1000 (1 + .10) 2 = 1210 In general, for any value of n:
Future Value (F) = P (1+i)n Total interest earned = In = P (1+i)n - P Where,
P present sum of money i interest rate per period n number of periods

Compound Interest Over Time

If you loaned a friend money for short period of time the difference between simple and compound interest is negligible. If you loaned a friend money for a long period of time the difference between simple and compound interest may amount to a considerable difference.

P 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

n 1 2 3 10 20 30 40

i% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

F $1,100.00 $1,210.00 $1,331.00 $2,593.74 $6,727.50 $17,449.40 $45,259.26

Nominal and Effective Interest

Interest rates are normally given on an annual basis with agreement on how often compounding will occur (e.g., monthly, quarterly, annually, continuous). Nominal interest rate /year ( r ) the annual interest rate w/o considering the effect of any compounding (e.g., r = 12%). Interest rate /period ( i ) the nominal interest rate /year divided by the number of interest compounding periods (e.g., monthly compounding: i = 12% / 12 months/year = 1%). Effective interest rate /year ( ieff or APR ) the annual interest rate taking into account the effect of the multiple compounding periods in the year. (e.g., as shown later, r = 12% compounded monthly is equivalent to 12.68% year compounded yearly.

Interest Rates (contd)

We use i for the periodic interest rate Nominal interest rate = r (an annual rate) Number of compounding periods/year = m r = i * m, and i = r / m Let r = .12 (or 12%) Interest Period m = interest periods / year Annual 1 Quarter Month 4 12 i = interest rate / period .12 .03 .01

Effective Interest
If there are more than one compounding periods during the year, then the compounding makes the true interest rate slightly higher. This higher rate is called the effective interest rate or Annual Percentage Rate (APR) ieff = (1 + i)m 1 or ieff = (1 + r/m)m 1 Example: r = 12, m = 12 ieff = (1 + .12/12)12 1 = (1.01)12 1 = .1268 or 12.68%

Consider Four Ways to Repay a Debt

Plan Repay Principal Repay Interest Interest Earned

Equal installments Interest on unpaid balance

End of loan Interest on unpaid balance

Declines

Constant

Equal installments

Declines at increasing rate Compound and pay at Compounds at end of loan increasing rate until end of loan

End of loan

Plan 1 Equal annual principal payments

Year
1 2 3 4 5

Balance
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000

P
1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

i
500 400 300 200 100

Payment
1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 6500

Plan 2 Annual interest + balloon payment of principal

Year
1 2 3 4 5

Balance
5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

i
500 500 500 500

Payment
500 500 500 500 500 7500

5000

500

Plan 3 Equal annual payments (installments)

Year
1 2 3 4 5

Balance
5000.00 4181.00 3280.10 2289.11 1199.02

P
819.00 900.90 990.99 1090.09 1199.10

i
500.00 418.10 328.01 228.91 119.90

Payment
1319 1319 1319 1319 1319 6595

Plan 4 Principal & interest at end of the loan

Year
1 2 3 4 5

Balance
5000 5500 6050 6655 7320.50

P
0 0 0 0 0

i
500 550 605 665.50 732.05

Payment
0 0 0 0 8052.55 8052.55

Which plan would you choose?

Total Principal + Interest Paid
Plan 1 = $6500 Plan 2 = $7500 Plan 3 = $6595 Plan 4 = $8052.55

Equivalence
When an organization is indifferent as to whether it has a present sum of money now or, with interest the assurance of some other sum of money in the future, or a series of future sums of money, we say that the present sum of money is equivalent to the future sum or series of future sums.
Each of the four repayment plans are equivalent because each repays $5000 at the same 10% interest rate.

To further illustrate this concept, given the choice of these two plans which would you choose?
Year Plan 1 Plan 2

1
2 3 4 5 Total

$1400
1320 1240 1160 1080 $6200

$400
400 400 400 5400 $7000

To make a choice the cash flows must be altered so a comparison may be made.

Technique of Equivalence
Determine a single equivalent value at a point in time for plan 1. Determine a single equivalent value at a point in time for plan 2.
Both at the same interest rate

Judge the relative attractiveness of the two alternatives from the comparable equivalent values. You will learn a number of methods for finding comparable equivalent values.

Analysis Methods that Compare Equivalent Values

Present Worth Analysis (Ch. 5) - Find the equivalent value of cash flows at time 0. Annual Worth Analysis (Ch. 6) - Find the equivalent annual worth of all cash flows. Rate of Return Analysis (Ch. 7, 8) - Compare the interest rate (ROR) of each alternatives cash flows to a minimum value you will accept. Future Worth Analysis (Ch. 9) - Find the equivalent value of cash flows at time in the future. Benefit/Cost Ratio (Ch. 9) - Use equivalent values of cash flows to form ratios that can be easily analyzed.

Interest Formulas
To understand equivalence the underlying interest formulas must be analyzed. We will start with Single Payment interest formulas. Notation:
i = Interest rate per interest period. n = Number of interest periods. P = Present sum of money (Present worth, PV). F = Future sum of money (Future worth, FV).

If you know any three of the above variables you can find the fourth one.

For example, given F, P, and n, find the interest rate (i) or ROR
Principal outstanding over time (P) Amount repaid (F) at n future periods from now We know F, P, and n and want to find the interest rate that makes them equivalent: If F = P (1 + i)n Then i = (F/P)1/n - 1 This value of i is the Rate Of Return or ROR for investing the amount P to earn the future sum F

Cash Flow Diagrams

We use cash flow diagrams to help organize the data for each alternative.
Down arrow disbursement cash flow Up arrow - Income cash flow n = number of compounding periods in the problem i = interest rate/period

Notation for Calculating a Future Value

Formula: F=P(1+i)n is the
single payment compound amount factor.

Functional notation: F=P(F/P, i, n) F = 5000(F/P, 6%, 10) F =P(F/P) which is dimensionally correct. Find the factor values in the tables in the back of the text.

Using the Functional Notation and Tables to Find the Factor Values
F = 5000(F/P, 6%, 10) To use the tables:
Step 1: Find the page with the 6% table Step 2: Find the F/P column Step 3: Go down the F/P column to n = 10

The Factor shown is 1.791, therefore: F = 5000 (1.791) = $8955

Using EXCEL Spreadsheet Functions

On the menu bar select the fx icon Select the Financial Function menu Select the FV function to find the Future Value of a present sum (or series of payments): FV(rate, nper, pmt, PV, type) where:
rate = i nper = n pmt = 0 PV = P type = 0

Notation for Calculating a Present Value

P=F(1/1+i)n=F(1+i)-n is the
single payment present worth factor

Functional notation: P=F(P/F, i, n) P=5000(P/F, 6%, 10)

Example: P=F(P/F, i, n)
F = $1000, i = 0.10, n = 5, P = ?
Using notation: P = F(P/F, 10%, 5) = $1000(.6209) = $620.90

Chapter 4 More Interest Formulas

Components of Engineering Economic Analysis

Calculation of P and F are fundamental. Some problems are more complex and require an understanding of added components:
Uniform series. Arithmetic or geometric gradients. Nominal and effective interest rates (covered in presentation #5 on Chapter 3). Continuous compounding.

Uniform Payment Series Capital Recovery Factor

The series of uniform payments that will recover an initial investment.

A = P(A/P, i, n)

EGR 403 - Cal Poly Pomona - SA6

51

Uniform Payment Series Compound Amount Factor F

The future value of an investment based on periodic, constant payments and a constant interest rate.

F = A(F/A, i, n)

Example 4-1
At 5%/year
Year Cash in Cash out

1000 0 0 0 -1000 -2000 -2763 -3000 Year Cash In

-$2763

500 1 1

500 2 2

500 3 3

500 4 4

500 5 5

1
2 3 4 5

$500
$500 $500 $500 $500

Cash Out

F = $500(F/A, 5%, 5) = $500(5.526) = $2763

Uniform Payment Series Sinking Fund Factor

The constant periodic amount, at a constant interest rate that must be deposited to accumulate a future value.

A = F(A/F, i, n)

Uniform Payment Series Present Worth Factor

The present value of a series of uniform future payments. P = A(P/A, i, n)

Example 4-6
F = $100(F/A, 15%, 3) = $347.25 F = $347.25(F/P, 15%, 2) = $459.24
Year 1 2 3 4 5 Cash flow $100 $100 $100 $0 F

Example 4-7 Finding the Present Value (P) for each cash flow is sometimes the easiest way to find the equivalent P.

Year 0 1 2 3 4

Cash flow P 0 $ 20 $ 30 $ 20

P = $20(P/F, 15%, 2) + $30(P/F, 15%, 3) + $20(P/F, 15%, 4) = $46.28

Arithmetic Gradient
A uniform increasing amount. The first cash flow is always equal to zero. G = the difference between each cash amount.

G = $10

Arithmetic Gradient combined with a Uniform Series

Decompose the cash flows into a uniform series and a pure gradient. Then add or subtract the Present Value of the gradient to the Present Value of the Uniform series

Example 4-8: Use P/G factor to find present value of the pure gradient portion of the cash flow

Arithmetic Gradient Uniform Series Factor

A pure gradient (uniformly increasing amount) can also be converted into the equivalent present value of uniform series:

AG = G(A/G, i, n)
See Example 4-9: Notice that the uniform series portion of the cash flow was subtracted to separate the pure gradient.

Geometric Series Present Worth Factor

Sometimes cash flows increase at a constant rate rather than a constant amount. Inflation, for example, could be reflected in a cash flow diagram that way. The equivalent present value of a geometrically increasing amount. g = the rate of increase (e.g., .05)

P = A(P/A, g, i, n) where (P/A, g, i, n) must be computed

from equation 4-30 or 4-31

Example 4-12 uses g = .10 and i = .08