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PERENCANAAN DAN

PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI
IEH2H3

Program Studi Teknik Industri


Fakultas Rekayasa Industri
Telkom University
AGGREGATE PLANNING

Perencanaan &
Pengendalian Produksi
IEH2H3
3

TUJUAN PEMBELAJARAN
• Umum
• Mahasiswa mampu menerapkan model matematik,
heuristik dan teknik statistik untuk perencanaan dan
pengendalian produksi

• Khusus
• Mampu menjelaskan pengertian rencana agregat dan
peran/fungsi rencana agregat dalam P3

• Mampu menggunakan teknik penyusunan rencana


agregat
PENDAHULUAN

• Tujuan Aggregate planning (AP) adalah membangkitkan


(generate) top level production plans

• Basis AP adalah hasil ramalan dan target produksi. Target


produksi ditentukan oleh top level business plan yang
memperhatikan kapasitas & kapabilitas perusahaan

• Analisis dilakukan dalam kelompok produk (product family)


dengan unit agregat

• Melibatkan pemilihan strategi manufaktur

• Peran AP adalah sebagai interface antara perusahaan/sistem


manufaktur dan pasar produknya.

4
AGGREGATE PLANNING INPUTS

• Resources • Costs
• Workforce • Inventory carrying
• Facilities • Back orders
• Demand forecast • Hiring/firing
• Policies • Overtime
• Subcontracting • Inventory changes
• Overtime • Subcontracting
• Inventory levels
• Back orders

5
AGGREGATE PLANNING OUTPUTS

• Total cost of a plan


• Projected levels of:
• Inventory
• Output
• Employment
• Subcontracting
• Backordering

6
AGGREGATE PLANNING
STRATEGIES
• Proactive
Alter demand to match capacity
• Reactive
Alter capacity to match demand
• Mixed
Some of each

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DEMAND OPTIONS

• Pricing

• Promotion

• Back orders

• New demand

8
CAPACITY OPTIONS
• Hire and layoff workers

• Overtime/slack time

• Part-time workers

• Inventories

• Subcontracting

9
AGGREGATE PLANNING
STRATEGIES

• Maintain a level workforce

• Maintain a steady output rate

• Match demand period by period

• Use a combination of decision


variables

10
BASIC STRATEGIES
• Level capacity strategy:
• Maintaining a steady rate of regular-time output while
meeting variations in demand by a combination of
options.

• Chase demand strategy:


• Matching capacity to demand; the planned output for a
period is set at the expected demand for that period.

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LEVEL APPROACH

• Advantages
• Stable output rates and workforce
• Disadvantages
• Greater inventory costs
• Increased overtime and idle time
• Resource utilizations vary over time

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CHASE APPROACH

• Advantages

• Investment in inventory is low

• Labor utilization in high

• Disadvantages

• The cost of adjusting output rates and/or


workforce levels

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TECHNIQUES FOR AGGREGATE PLANNING

1.Determine demand for each period

2.Determine capacities for each period

3.Identify policies that are pertinent

4.Determine units costs

5.Develop alternative plans and costs

6.Select the best plan that satisfies objectives. Otherwise


return to step 5.
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CUMULATIVE GRAPH
Figure 13.3
Cumulative output/demand

Cumulative
production
Cumulative
demand

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

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MATHEMATICAL TECHNIQUES

Linear programming: Methods for obtaining


optimal solutions to problems involving
allocation of scarce resources in terms of cost
minimization.
Simulation models: Computerized models that
can be tested under different scenarios to
problems.

16
17

Table 13.7 SUMMARY OF PLANNING TECHNIQUES

Technique Solution Characteristics


Graphical/charting Heuristic (trial Intuitively appealing, easy to
and error) understand; solution not
necessarily optimal.
Linear Optimizing Computerized; linear assumptions
programming not always valid.

Simulation Heuristic (trial Computerized models can be


and error) examined under a variety of
conditions.
CONTROLLABLE (DECISION)
VARIABLE
• Inventory

• Production rate

• Manpower

• Kapasitas: over time/recruitment/layoff (tenaga


kerja/work force)

• Subcontract

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CONTOH : PERENCANAAN AGGREGAT
DENGAN TRIAL AND ERROR

Diketahui demand selama 8 kuartal ke depan (hasil ramalan  lihat


slide berikutnya)
Ongkos produksi :
Regular time (Cr): 10 (US$/unit)
Over time (Co): 20 (US$/unit)
Ongkos kenaikan tingkat produksi (Ch) : 100 US$/unit (hiring cost)
Ongkos penurunan tingkat produksi (Cl): 150 US$/unit  (lay-off
cost)
Ongkos inventory (Ci): 50 US$/kuartal
Incremental cost for subcontracting (Cs): 80 US$/unit
19
Forecasted Demand per kuartal

Kuartal Demand Kumulatif Demand per kuartal


1 220 220

Kuantitas demand
2 170 390 800

3 400 790 600


400
4 600 1390
200
5 380 1770
0
6 200 1970
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
7 130 2100 Kuartal
8 300 2400

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Level Strategy
Production Adjusted Ongkos
Kuartal Demand Inventory
level Inventory*) inventory
1 220 300 80 350 17,500
2 170 300 210 480 24,000
3 400 300 110 380 19,000
4 600 300 -190 80 4,000
5 380 300 -270 0 0
6 200 300 -170 100 5,000
7 130 300 0 270 13,500
8 300 300 0 270 13,500
Total 96,500
Production level diasumsikan dari rata-rata demand
*) Initial inventory: 270
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Chase Strategy

Kuartal Demand Hiring Layoff Total


1 220 0 0 0
2 170 0 7,500 7,500
3 400 23,000 0 23,000
4 600 20,000 0 20,000
5 380 0 33,000 33,000
6 200 0 27,000 27,000
7 130 0 10,500 10,500
8 300 17,000 0 17,000
Total 138,000

22
Subcontract Strategy

Production Incremental
Kuartal Demand Subcontract
level Cost
1 220 130 90 7,200
2 170 130 40 3,200
3 400 130 270 21,600
4 600 130 470 37,600
5 380 130 250 20,000
6 200 130 70 5,600
7 130 130 0 0
8 300 130 170 13,600
Total 108,800
Asumsi: production level mengikuti permintaan terkecil
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MIXED STRATEGY
• Langkah1:
• Produksi demand sesuai kapasitas regular time
• Langkah 2:
• Cek pemenuhan demand, bila belum terpenuhi, selesaikan
dengan over time
• Langkah 3:
• Cek pemenuhan demand setelah produksi overtime, bila belum
terpenuhi, lakukan perubahan workforce
• Langkah 4:
• Update perubahan workforce tiap periode, (bila terjadi
perubahan)
• Langkah 5:
• Hitung total cost yang terjadi

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Mixed Strategy
Regular Additional Overtime Inventory Inventory Overtime Changing
Kuartal Demand Total
Production units needed Production after RT+OT cost cost work force
1 220 200 20 50 30 30 1,500 1,000 0 2,500
2 170 200 -30 0 30 60 3,000 0 0 3,000
3 400 200 200 50 -150 -90 0 1,000 9,000 10,000
4 600 200 400 50 -350 -350 0 1,000 26,000 27,000
5 380 200 180 50 -130 -130 0 1,000 33,000 34,000
6 200 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 19,500 19,500
7 130 200 -70 0 70 70 3,500 0 0 3,500
8 300 200 100 50 -50 20 1,000 1,000 0 2,000
Total 101,500

Diasumsikan:
Regular Production = 200 unit/kuartal
Overtime Production = 50 unit/kuartal

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LINEAR PROGRAMMING
k k k k k
Min Z  r  Pt  h At  f  Rt  v Ot  c  I t
t 1 t 1 t 1 t 1 t 1

Subject to P, O = jml unit yang diproduksi


pada RT dan OT
Pt  mt ; t  1, 2, ..., k A, R = jml unit kenaikan dan
penurunan
Ot  nt ; t  1, 2, ..., k
r, v = ongkos produksi per unit
I t  I t 1  Pt  Ot  Dt ; t  1, 2, ..., k RT dan OT
At  Pt - Pt 1; t  1, 2, ..., k c= ongkos simpan per unit
Rt  Pt 1 - Pt ; t  1, 2, ..., k D= ramalan demand
At , Rt , I t , Pt , Ot  0 I= jml unit inventory
m, n = kapasitas RT dan OT
26
TRANSPORTATION MODEL

Supply capacity
Perioda Demand
RT OT Subcontract
1 700 250 500 500
2 800 250 500 800
3 900 250 500 1700
4 500 250 500 900

Inventory awal: 100 unit


Inventory akhir yang diinginkan: 150 unit
Ongkos RT: $100/unit
Ongkos OT: $125/unit
Ongkos SC: $150/unit
Ongkos simpan: $20/unit/perioda
27
TRANSPORTATION MODEL

Perioda penjualan Unused Available


Sumber
Perioda 1 2 3 4 Capacity Capacity
Produksi Inventory awal 100
RT 700
1 OT 250
SC 500
RT 800
2 OT 250
SC 500
RT 900
3 OT 250
SC 500
RT 500
4 OT 250
SC 500
Demand 500 800 1700 1050 6000
28
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TRANSPORTATION MODEL
Periode Capacity (unit)
Sumber 1 2 3 4 Unused Available
0 20 40 60
Inventory
Periode 50 50 - 100
100 120 160 220
Regular
450 250 700
125 145 165 185
1 Over time
250 250
150 170 190 210
SubCont
500 500
190 100 120 140
Regular
750 50 - 800
215 125 145 165
2 Over time
250 - 250
240 150 170 190
SubCont
500 500
280 190 100 120
Regular
900 - 900
305 215 125 145
3 Over time
250 - 250
330 240 150 170
SubCont
250 250 500
370 280 190 100
Regular
500 - 500
395 305 215 125
4 Over time
250 - 250
420 330 240 150
SubCont
300 200 500
STOCKOUT 250 250 250 250
- - - -
DEMAND 500 800 1.700 900
End-horizon
150
Inventory
LATIHAN 30

Diberikan data peramalan dan produksi sebagai berikut : (Fogarty, page 74)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec
Demand 40 40 40 32 32 32 48 48 48 60 60 60

Required safetystock (unit) = 5 Tugas :


Holding cost (US$/unit/month) = 300 a. Buat perencanaan agregat (+
Hiring cost (US$/worker) = 50 biayanya) jika digunakan chase
Layoff cost (US$/worker) = 100 strategy.
b. Buat perencanaan agregat (+
Labor cost (US$/worker/month)= 480
biayanya) jika digunakan level
Overtimecost ((US$/hour/worker) = 18 production strategy.
Production rate (units/month/worker)=8 c. Komponen biaya apa perlu
Workday per month = 21 mendapat perhatian utama? Apa
Current work force (workers)=5 saran Anda untuk
mengatasinya?