DAFTAR ISI

KATA PENGANTAR............................................................................ i
UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH ................................................................ ii
ABSTRAK ............................................................................................. iii
DAFTAR RIWAYAT HIDUP ............................................................. iv
DAFTAR ISI........................................................................................... v
DAFTAR TABEL..................................................................................viii
DAFTAR GAMBAR..............................................................................ix
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN.....................................................................x

BAB I PENDAHULUAN
1.1 Latar Belakang Masalah........................................................1
1.2 Rumusan Masalah..................................................................9
1.3 Tujuan Penelitian...................................................................9
1.4 Manfaat Penelitian.................................................................9

BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA

2.1 Landasan Teori.......................................................................10
2.1.1 Teori Perkembangan Aktivitas Pemerintah..................10
2.1.2 Model Pembangunan Pengeluaran Pemerintah............12
2.1.3 Teori Makro Tentang Pengeluaran Pemerintah............12
2.1.4 Konsep dan Definisi Otonomi Daerah..........................13
2.1.5 Desentralisasi Fiskal.....................................................14
2.1.6 Belanja Daerah..............................................................15
2.1.7 Dana Alokasi Umum.....................................................15
2.1.8 Flypaper Effect Dalam Kinerja SKPD..........................17
2.1.9 Konsep Penerimaan Pendapatan Daerah......................18
2.1.10 Konsep Tax Ratio.......................................................21
2.2 Penelitian Terdahulu .............................................................21
2.4 Kerangka Pikir.......................................................................27
2.5 Hipotesis................................................................................28

BAB III METODE PENELITIAN

3.1 Ruang Lingkup Penelitian .....................................................29
3.2 Data .......................................................................................29
3.2.1 Sumber Data..................................................................29
3.2.2 Data Menurut Waktu.....................................................30
3.2.3 Jenis Data......................................................................30
3.3 Teknik Analisis......................................................................30

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 3.3.1 Analisis Kuantitatif Deskriptif.........................................30
3.3.2 Uji Hausmant...................................................................31
3.3.3 Uji Asumsi Klasik............................................................33
3.3.1.1 Uji Multikoloneritas................................................33
3.3.3.2 Uji Heteroskedastisitas............................................33
3.3.3.3 Uji Autokorelasi......................................................34
3.3.4 Koefisien Determinasi(R2).............................................34
3.3.5 Uji F...........................................................................34
3.3.6 Uji T...........................................................................35
3.3.5 Definisi Operasionalisasi Variabel................................44

BAB IV HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN

4.1 Gambaran Umum Variabel Penelitian ..................................45

4.1.1 Pemerintah Provinsi Sumatera-Selatan.........................45
4.1.2 Perkembangan Dana Alokasi Umum...........................49
4.1.3 Perkembangan Pendapatan Asli Daerah ......................50
4.1.4 Perkembangan Belanja Daerah ...................................52
4.2 Analisa Pembahasan .............................................................53
4.2.1 Hasil Estimasi............................................................53
4.2.2 Pemilihan Model Terbaik .........................................54
4.2.1.1 Uji Chow................................................................55
4.2.1.2 Uji Haustman..........................................................56
4.2.3 Uji Asumsi Klasik.....................................................57
4.2.3.1 Uji Multikolineritas................................................57
4.2.3.2 Uji Heteroskedastisitas...........................................58
4.2.3.3 Uji Autokorelasi.....................................................58
4.2.3.4 Uji F Statistik..........................................................60
4.2.3.5 Uji T Statistik.........................................................61
4.2.3.6 Flypaper Effect.......................................................62
4.3 Pembahasan ...........................................................................63
4.3.1 Flypaper Effect di Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi
Sumatera- Selatan...................................................63
4.3.2.Pengaruh DAU Terhadap Belanja Daerah
Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Sumatera-Selatan...........64
4.3.3. Pengaruh PAD Terhadap Belanja Daerah
Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Sumatera-Selatan...........65

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BAB V KESIMPULAN

5.1 Kesimpulan........................................................................................66
5.2 Saran..................................................................................................66

DAFTAR PUSTAKA.............................................................................67
LAMPIRAN............................................................................................71

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 DAFTAR TABEL

Tabel 1.1 Data Perkembangan Pendapatan Asli Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi

Sumatera-Selatan Tahun 2013 – 2016 ................................................5
Tabel 1.2 Data Perkembangan Dana Alokasi Umum Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi
Sumatera-Selatan Tahun 2013 – 201...................................................6
Tabel 1.3 Data Perkembangan Pendapatan Asli Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi
Sumatera-Selatan Tahun 2013 – 2016.................................................7
Tabel 4.1 Pembagian daerah Administrasi Provinsi Sumatera Selatan Menurut
Kabupaten/Kota Tahun 2015...............................................................48
Tabel 4.2 Hasil Pengujian Signifikasi..................................................................53
Tabel 4.3 Hasil Pengujian Uji Chow...................................................................55
Tabel 4.4 Hasil estimasi pengujian Uji Haustman ..............................................56
Tabel 4.5 Hasil Uji Multikolinieritas..................................................................57
Tabel 4.6 Hasil Uji Glejser Pengujian Heteroskedastisitas.................................41
Tabel 4.7 Hasil Pengujian F hitung statistik.......................................................60
Tabel 4.8 Hasil Pengujian T hitung statistik........................................................61

viii
 DAFTAR GAMBAR

Gambar 2.1 Kurva Hukum Wagner ....................................................................12

Gambar 2.2 Kerangka Pikir Penelitian................................................................32
Gambar 3.1 Kurva Pengujian F statistik..............................................................42
Gambar 4.1 Peta Wilayah Provinsi Sumatera-Selatan.........................................45
Gambar 4.1.1 Grafik Rata-Rata Pertumbuhan Dana Alokasi Umum
Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Sumatera-selatan 2007- 2016.....................49
Gambar 4.1.2 Rata-Rata Pertumbuhan Pendapatan Asli Daerah Kabupaten/Kota
Provinsi Sumatera-selatan 2007- 2016................................................51
Gambar 4.1.3 Rata-Rata Pertumbuhan Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi
Sumatera-selatan 2007- 2016...................................................................52
Gambar 4.2 Kurva pengujian Autokorelasi.........................................................59

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 DAFTAR LAMPIRAN

Lampiran 1 Data Perkembangan Dana Alokasi Umum Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi

Sumatera Selatan Tahun 2007- 2016...................................................
Lampiran 2 Data Perkembangan Pendapatan Asli Daerah Kabupaten/Kota
Provinsi Sumatera Selatan Tahun 2007- 2016....................................
Lampiran3 Data Perkembangan Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi
Sumatera Selatan Tahun 2007- 2016...................................................
Lampiran 4 Hasil Estimasi Regresi Data Panel (Model Terpilih)....................... 71
Lampiran 5 Hasil Estimasi Uji Chow.................................................................. 72
Lampiran 6 Hasil Estimasi Uji Hausmant........................................................... 73
Lampiran 7 Hasil Estimasi Commond Effect...................................................... 74
Lampiran 8 Hasil Estimasi Fixed effect............................................................... 75
Lampiran 9 Hasil Uji Glejser............................................................................... 76