asumsi Forecast PT.

Kelompok 9, berdasarkan Laporan keuangan historis didapat data sebagai berikut;

1. Rata rata growth sales 5%
2. rata rata ATO 4,2
3. Rata rata PM 6,5%
4. other operating income dalam 3 tahun kedepan diperkirakan tidak ada
5. Estimasi pembayaran dividen 35% dari NOPAT
6. data historis Cost of Debt after TAX 6%
7. data forecast sudah cukup valid sehingga tidak ada revisi

Actual Forecast forecast forecast

2018 2019 2020 2021

1. Forecast growth sales 5% 5% 5%

sales 50000 52500 55125 57881.25

2. forecast ATO dan hitung NOA

Forecast ATO 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
NOA = sales/ATO 11905 12500 13125 13781.25

3. Revisi sales forecast

4. Forecast PM dan hitung NOPAT

Forecast PM 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%
Hitung NOPAT = Sales x PM 3250 3412.5 3583.125 3762.281

5. forecast any other opr income 0 0 0 0

6. hitung FCF = NOPAT - Change in NOA

change in NOA 595 625 656.25
FCF 2817.5 2958.125 3106.031

7. forecast net div payout

estimated as % of NOPAT 35% 35% 35%
div payout 1194.375 1254.094 1316.798

8. hitung net payment to debt holder

payment = FCF-d 1623.125 1704.031 1789.233

9. forecast cost of debt dan debt balance

forecast CODAT 6% 6% 6% 6%
opening debt balance 5425 4127.375 2670.986
hitung cost of debt (Net Financial Exp) 325.5 247.6425 160.2592
hitung closing debt 5425 4127.375 2670.986 1042.013
cek Laverage debt/NOA 45.569089 33.019 20.35037 7.561089

10. comprehensive income

NOPAT-NFEat 3087 3335.483 3602.022
11. hitung ekuitas
equity=Asset-Liability 6480 8372.625 10454.01 12739.24
equity=open equity+Net Income-Div 8372.625 10454.01 12739.24