PERAMALAN DAN
PENGANGGARAN
KEUANGAN
Kuliah - 4
Definisi
Internal:
Perkembangan penjualan
Kebijakan perusahaan yang berhubungan dengan pemasaran
Kapasitas produksi
Tersedianya karyawan bag pemasaran
Fasilitas pemasaran
Modal kerja
Data eksternal
Persaingan
Posisi dalam persaingan
Jumlah dan tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk
Agama adat istiadat
Kebijakan pemerintah
Keadaan ekonomi
Sumber Pembiayaan Spontan : sumber pembiayaan yang
terjadi secara alami selama perjalanan bisnis. Contoh
utamanya adalah hutang dagang.
Sember Pembiayaan berdasarkan Diskresi : sumber
pembiayaan yang membutuhkan keputusan eksplisit
pihak manajemen perusahaan setiap kali timbulnya
dana.
pro forma, or projected financial
statements
Slide
11
Discretionary Financing
Sumber pendanaan yang memerlukan keputusan yang
explisit oleh manajemen puncak setiap kali sumber
pendanaan meningkat
Ex: long term debts (hutang jangka panjang), common
stock (saham Biasa)
metode persentase penjualan
Slide
13
Percent of Sales Method
(Continued)
This year % of $32m
Assets
Current Assets $8m 25%
Fixed Assets $16m 50%
Total Assets $24m
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable $4m 12.5%
Accrued Expenses $4m 12.5%
Notes Payable $1m n/a
Long Term Debt $6m n/a
Total Liabilities $15m
Common Stock $7m n/a
Retained Earnings $2m
Equity $9m Slide
14
Total Liab. & Equity $24m
Percent of Sales Method (Continued)
Next year % of $40m
Assets
Current Assets $10m 25%
Fixed Assets $20m 50%
Total Assets $30m
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable $5m 12.5%
Accrued Expenses $5m 12.5%
Notes Payable $1m n/a
Long Term Debt $6m n/a
Total Liabilities $17m
Common Stock $7m n/a
Retained Earnings ???
Slide
Equity ??? 15
Slide
16
Memprediksi Discretionary
Financing Needs
Next year % of $40m
Assets
Current Assets $10m 25%
Fixed Assets $20m 50%
Total Assets $30m
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable $5m 12.5%
Accrued Expenses $5m 12.5%
Notes Payable $1m n/a How much
Long Term Debt $6m n/a Discretionary
Total Liabilities $17m Financing
Common Stock $7m n/a will we
Need?
Retained Earnings $3m
Slide
Equity $10m 17
Slide
18
Predicting Discretionary
Financing Needs (Continued)
Disini perusahaan harus memutuskan bagaimana
mendanai DFN
Perusahaan bisa menjual saham atau menerbitkan
obligasi (Long-Term Debt)
Long-Term Debt and Equitydisebut juga sumber
pendanaan external
Paid in capital adalah berbedaan antara harga jual
equitas dengan nilai nominal saham yang terjual
Slide
19
Discretionary Financing
Needed
DFN= Projected change in assetst-1 – Projected change
in liabilitiest-1- projected change in owners equityt-1
Projected change in assets =
(salest 1 − salest )
asset t
salest
NPM t +1 salest +1 (1 − b)
Kelemahan metode %
penjualan