ESTIMATION
RISK
KELOMPOK 5
Ari Annisa Nur
Cinderella Meilani
Eugenia Tyaswening
Rahmad Hendrawan
Robertus Aji
01 RELEVANT CASH FLOW
02 INCORPORATING INFLATION
LEARNING
OBJECTIVES
03 TYPES OF RISK
04 RISK ANALYSIS
Project Valuation, Cash Flows, and Risk Analysis
Cash Flow vs. Accounting Income
● Perbedaan antara arus kas bersih dan laba akuntansi bersih:
○ Beban depresiasi
○ Tingkat depresiasi
○ Modal kerja
● Nilai Sekarang dari arus kas, bukan laba akuntansi, adalah dasar dari nilai perusahaan
● Untuk penganggaran modal, item kuncinya adalah arus kas proyek, bukan laba akuntansi.
● Arus kas tahunan akan cukup untuk
menganalisis penganggaran modal.
SENSI
TIVIT
Y
GRAP
Sensitivity
Graph
MERCURY
SCENA
rangkaian keadaan keuangan yang "buruk" dan "baik"
dibandingkan dengan situasi yang paling mungkin,
atau kasus dasar.
RIO
● Skenario kasus dasar
● Skenario terburuk
● Skenario kasus terbaik
IS
NPV dalam setiap skenario dapat ditentukan
INTERESTS
SCEN
ARIO
ANAL
YSIS
INTERESTS
SCEN
ARIO
ANAL
YSIS
Stand-alone risk
3 TYPES OF
PROJECT RISK Within-firm risk (corporate risk)
➔ Untuk melakukan sensitivity analysis, semua variabel tetap pada nilai yang
Saturn is the
02 STEP 2
ringed one
Mercury is the
03 STEP 3
smallest one
MARS
PROFIT AND
LOSS FORECAST
To modify this graph, click on it, follow the link, change the data
and paste the new graph here
SWOT ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
Strength 1
Strength 2 S W Weakness 1
Weakness 2
Strength 3 Weakness 3
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
Opportunity 1
Opportunity 2
O T Threat 1
Threat 2
Opportunity 3 Threat 3
RECOMMENDATIONS
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
Name of
initiative 1
Name of
initiative 2
Name of
initiative 3
Name of
initiative 4
PRICING MANAGEMENT PROJECT
Total of Business Ease of
# Opportunities Low Margin High Margin
Opportunities Implementation
RESOURCES
-2K
156 items -4K
LEAN BUSINESS CASE
INTANGIBLE STRATEGIC IMPACT
BENEFITS ALIGNMENT
Mercury Mercury
Mars Mars
Jupiter Jupiter
Neptune Neptune Low High
Mercury Venus
Jupiter Saturn
KEY KEY
ACTIVITIES OUTCOMES
Mars Mars
Mercury Mercury
DELIVERABLES
& OUTCOMES
DELIVERABLE OBJECTIVES
S
Mars Mars
Mercury Mercury
PROJECT COSTS
2017 2018 2019 2020
High
Moderate
Medium
Medium
Moderate
High
Low
Extreme
ASSESSMENT
Jupiter High Moderate Jupiter
SHARED
VALUES
SOFT S
SWEET SPOT
MERCURY
SWEET SPOT Mercury is the
smallest planet
ORGANIZATIONAL CHART
CEO
Team 1 Team 2
MISSON
MISSION
AND VISION VISION
addyouremail@freepik.com
+91 620 421 838
yourcompany.com
PHOTOS
● Business females working together
● Man and woman working together for a new project
● Business people teamwork
● Corporate workers brainstorming together
PHOTOS
● High angle team meeti
ng at office mock-up
● People working on a p
roject together
RESOURCES
VECTORS
● Flat design cms digital
programs
ICONS
● Business Icon Pack