MODEL KESEIMBANGAN
PENDAHULUAN
Pembentukan model keseimbangan memungkinkan
investor menentukan pengukuran risiko yang relevan
dan bagaimana hubungan antara risiko untuk setiap asset
apabila pasar modal berada dalam keadaan seimbang.
CAPM
CAPM dipergunakan untuk menentukan
beberapa r yang layak untuk suatu investasi
dengan tingkat risiko investasi tersebut.
Syarifah Rahmawati - Manajemen Investasi & Portofolio
ASUMSI-ASUMSI
Para pemodal bisa melakukan short sales
Semua investor dapat meminjamkan sejumlah dananya
(lending) atau meminjam (borrowing) sejumlah dana
dengan jumlah yang tidak terbatas pada tingkat suku
bunga bebas risiko.
Pemodal diasumsikan mempunyai pengharapan yang
homogen
Semua aktiva bisa diperjual belikan
RISIKO SISTEMATIS DAN TIDAK SISTEMATIS
Diversifiable Risk;
Nonsystematic Risk;
Firm Specific Risk;
Unique Risk
Portfolio risk
Nondiversifiable risk;
Systematic Risk;
Market Risk
n
Thus diversification can eliminate some, but not all of the
risk of individual securities.
THE EFFICIENT SET FOR MANY SECURITIES
return
Individual Assets
P
Consider a world with many risky assets; we can still identify the
opportunity set of risk-return combinations of various portfolios.
THE EFFICIENT SET FOR MANY SECURITIES
return minimum
variance
portfolio
Individual Assets
P
return
o n tier
tf r
f icien
ef
minimum
variance
portfolio
Individual Assets
P
The section of the opportunity set above the minimum variance
portfolio is the efficient frontier.
OPTIMAL RISKY PORTFOLIO WITH A RISK-FREE
ASSET
return
100%
stocks
rf
100%
bonds
In addition to stocks and bonds, consider a world
that also has risk-free securities like T-bills
RISKLESS BORROWING AND LENDING
return
CM 100%
stocks
Balanced
fund
rf
100%
bonds
Now investors can allocate their money across the
T-bills and a balanced mutual fund
RISKLESS BORROWING AND LENDING
return
L
CM efficient frontier
rf
P
With a risk-free asset available and the efficient frontier identified,
we choose the capital allocation line with the steepest slope
MARKET EQUILIBRIUM
efficient
return
L
CM frontier
M
rf
P
With the capital allocation line identified, all investors choose a
point along the line—some combination of the risk-free asset
and the market portfolio M. In a world with homogeneous
expectations, M is the same for all investors.
THE SEPARATION PROPERTY
return
L
CM efficient frontier
rf
P
The Separation Property states that the market portfolio, M, is the
same for all investors—they can separate their risk aversion from
their choice of the market portfolio.
THE SEPARATION PROPERTY
return
L
CM efficient frontier
rf
P
Investor risk aversion is revealed in their choice of where to stay
along the capital allocation line—not in their choice of the line.
MARKET EQUILIBRIUM
return
CM 100%
stocks
Balanced
fund
rf
100%
bonds
Just where the investor chooses along the Capital Asset Line
depends on his risk tolerance. The big point though is that all
investors have the same CML.
MARKET EQUILIBRIUM
return
CM 100%
stocks
Optimal
Risky
Porfolio
rf
100%
bonds
All investors have the same CML because they all have the
same optimal risky portfolio given the risk-free rate.
OPTIMAL RISKY PORTFOLIO WITH A RISK-
FREE ASSET
L 0 CML 1
return
CM 100%
stocks
Cov( Ri , RM )
i
( RM )
2
ESTIMATING B WITH REGRESSION
Security Returns
i ne
c L
t i
r is
c t e
a
har
C Slope = bi
Return on
market %
Ri = a i + biRm + ei
THE FORMULA FOR BETA
Cov( Ri , RM )
i
( RM )
2
BETA
Excess return suatu saham
B>1
B=1
B<1
BETA
Rata-rata beta untuk seluruh sama adalah 1
B>1:
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RISK AND EXPECTED RETURN (CAPM)
R i RF β i ( R M RF )
R i RF β i ( R M RF )
Expected
Risk- Beta of the Market risk
return on = + ×
free rate security premium
a security
Expected return R i RF β i ( R M RF )
CM
L
RM
Premium
Premium risk
risk
E(Rm)
E(Rm) -- Rf
RF Rf
1.0 b
R i RF β i ( R M RF )
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RISK & EXPECTED
RETURN
Expected
return
13.5%
3%
1.5 b
β i 1.5 RF 3% R M 10%
R i 3% 1.5 (10% 3%) 13.5%
CONTOH SOAL
Jika diketahui expected rate of return sebesar 22 %.
Saham ini memiliki beta 1,5 dan tingkat keuntungan
portofolio pasar (IHSG) 20% serta tingkat
keuntungan bebas risiko 10%.
CONTOH KASUS
1. Diketahui return bebas risiko sebesar 12%, return portofolio
15%. Beta saham A adh 1,8. hitunglah return ekspektasi saham A
?
2. Diketahui E(Rm) sebesar 20%, SD sebesar 5%. Adapun Rf
sebesar 12%, berapakah besaran tambahan return yg diminta dan
besarnya slope CML?
3. Diketuai tiga buah saham A, B, dan C memiliki beta yang sama
yaitu sebesar 1,8 dan beta pasar sebesar 1,0. adapun return pasar
adh 15%, return saham A : 17,4 ; return saham B: 20% dan
return saham C: 14%. Pada saham apakah investasi sebaiknya
dilakukan?
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT)
Dimana:
Ri = tingkat keuntungan yang diharapkan atas sekuritas
Rf = tingkat keuntungan bebas risiko
= גnilai yang sesungguhnya dari faktor ekonomi k
b = sensitivitas sekuritas i terhadap faktor ekonomi k
e = faktor-faktor pengganggu lain atas sekuritas i
KEUNGGULAN VS KELEMAHAN APT
Tidak adanya asumsi distribusi Faktor fundamental yang
normal tingkat keuntungan dipergunakan dalam model tidak
sekuritas dijelaskan secara spesifik.
Tidak adanya asumsi risk averse APT hanya berlaku sebagai
Tidak memerlukan true market aproksimasi dan tidak ada
Dapat diestimasi dari subset jaminan dlm analisis harga
asset berisiko sekuritas individual
Multifaktor dalam return
Tidak adanya spesifikasi tentang
sekuritas faktor sistematis
REQUIRED RETURN FOR STOCK I: BI=0.9,
RRF=6.8%, THE MARKET RISK PREMIUM IS 6.3%,
CI=-0.5, THE EXPECTED VALUE FOR THE SIZE
FACTOR IS 4%, DI=-0.3, AND THE EXPECTED VALUE
FOR THE BOOK-TO-MARKET FACTOR IS 5%.