11th Edition
by Jeff Madura
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Pendekatan Analisa Fundamental
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SIKLUS BISNIS
TAHAP AWAL
• Tingkat pertumbuhan masih rendah,
• Harga yang ditawarkan masih tinggi karena belum tercapainya skala ekonomi,
• Tingkat investasi yang dibutuhkan untuk mengembangkan produknya tinggi,
• Resiko kegagalan tinggi.
TAHAP EKSPANSI
• Tingkat pertumbuhan kencang,
• Tingkat persaingan yang terbatas dikarenakan permintann yang pesat yang mampu
mengakomodasi semuar perusahaan yang terlibat,
• Harga yang ditawarkan menurun, namun profit meningkat,
• Resiko kegagalan mulai berkurang
TAHAP PENDEWASAAN PERTUMBUHAN
Tahap yang ditandai dengan pertumbuhan yang mulai melambat dan pasar sudah mendekati titik jenuh.
Pada tahap ini pengaruh perkembangan ekonomi sangat kental. Usia perusahaan di tahap ini sudah
jangka panjang
TAHAP PENURUNAN
Pertumbuhan bersifat stagnan, penurunan permintaan. Tahapan ini bisa diperlambat dengan berinovasi
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FAKTOR – FAKTOR EKSTERNAL PADA SUATU INDUSTRI
Technology
Demografi
Growth,
Profit,
Risk
Kebijakan
Pemerintah
Pengaruh Makroekonomi
Sosial
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METODE VALUASI SAHAM
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5
PRICE MULTIPLE APPROACH
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PRICE MULTIPLE APPROACH
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Critique of Price Multiples
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
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Required Rate of Return on Stocks
Rj = Rf + Bj(Rm – Rf)
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Required Rate of Return on Stocks
Economic Factors
Impact of Economic Growth (Exhibit 11.1)
An increase in economic growth is diharapkan untuk
meningkatkan permintaan akan produk dan layanan yang
dihasilkan oleh perusahaan dan dengan demikian meningkatkan
arus kas dan penilaian perusahaan.
Impact of Interest Rates
Diberi pilihan risk-free Treasury securities or stocks, investor
harus membeli saham hanya jika harganya sesuai untuk
mencerminkan pengembalian yang diharapkan cukup tinggi di atas
risk-free rate.
Interest rates umumnya meningkat sebagai respons terhadap
peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi.
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Factors that Affect Stock Prices
Market-Related Factors
Investor Sentiment
Merupakan mood umum investor di pasar saham (stock
market).
January Effect
Manajer portofolio lebih suka berinvestasi di saham kecil
yang berisiko, di awal tahun dan kemudian beralih ke
perusahaan besar yang lebih stabil di dekat akhir tahun
untuk mengunci keuntungan mereka.
Kecenderungan ini menempatkan tekanan ke atas pada
saham kecil di Januari setiap tahun.
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Factors that Affect Stock Prices
Firm-Specific Factors
Change in Dividend Policy
An increase in dividends dapat mencerminkan ekspektasi
perusahaan bahwa akan lebih mudah membayar dividen.
Earnings Surprises
Ketika laba perusahaan yang diumumkan lebih tinggi dari
yang diharapkan, beberapa investor menaikkan perkiraan
mereka tentang arus kas masa depan perusahaan dan
karenanya menilai kembali stock upward.
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Factors that Affect Stock Prices
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Factors that Affect Stock Prices
Tax Effects
Differences in tax laws for short-term vs. long-term capital
gains memengaruhi arus kas pajak setelah pajak yang diterima
investor dari penjualan saham.
Tax laws menyebabkan beberapa saham lebih diinginkan
daripada yang lain. ie. Dividend vs. non-dividend paying
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Exhibit 11.2 Framework for Explaining Changes in
a Firm’s Stock Price over Time
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Stock Risk
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Stock Risk
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Stock Risk
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Stock Risk
n n
p w w wi w j i j CORRij
2
i i
2 2
j
2
j
i 1 j 1
where
i standard deviation of returns of the ith stock
j standard deviation of returns of the jth stock
CORRij correlatio n coefficien t between th e ith and jth stocks
wi proportion of funds invested in the ith stock
w j proportion of funds invested in the jth stock
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Stock Risk
p wi i
High-beta stocks diperkirakan relatif stabil karena mereka
lebih sensitif terhadap pengembalian pasar dari waktu ke
waktu. Likewise, low-beta stocks diperkirakan akan kurang
stabil karena mereka kurang responsif terhadap
pengembalian pasar.
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Exhibit 11.4 How Beta Influences Probability
Distributions
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Stock Risk
Value at Risk
Memperkirakan kerugian terbesar yang diperkirakan untuk
posisi investasi tertentu untuk tingkat kepercayaan tertentu.
Dimaksudkan untuk memperingatkan investor tentang
potensi kerugian maksimum yang bisa terjadi
Biasa digunakan untuk memperkirakan risiko suatu
portofolio
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Stock Risk
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Stock Risk
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Stock Risk
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Stock Risk
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Risk-Adjusted Stock Performance
Sharpe Index
The reward-to-variability ratio, or Sharpe Index, measures risk-
adjusted returns when total variability adalah ukuran risiko
yang paling tepat.
R Rf
Sharpe Index
where R average return on the stock
R f average risk - free rate
standard deviation of the stock' s return
Indeks ini mengukur kelebihan pengembalian di atas tingkat
bebas risiko per unit risiko.
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Risk-Adjusted Stock Performance
Treynor Index
The Treynor Index measures risk-adjusted returns when beta
adalah ukuran risiko yang paling tepat.
R Rf
Treynor Index
where R average return on the stock
R f average risk - free rate
stock' s beta
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Stock Market Efficiency
Forms of Efficiency
Weak-Form Efficiency - menyarankan bahwa harga
sekuritas mencerminkan semua informasi yang berhubungan
dengan pasar, seperti pergerakan harga sekuritas historis dan
volume perdagangan sekuritas.
Semistrong-Form Efficiency - menunjukkan bahwa harga
keamanan sepenuhnya mencerminkan semua informasi
publik, seperti pengumuman perusahaan, berita ekonomi,
atau berita politik.
Strong-Form Efficiency - menunjukkan bahwa harga
keamanan sepenuhnya mencerminkan semua informasi,
termasuk informasi pribadi atau orang dalam.
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Stock Market Efficiency
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Foreign Stock Valuation and Performance
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SUMMARY
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SUMMARY(Cont.)