13-Perencanaan Aggregat

13
Aggregate
Planning
and S&OP
© 2014
© 2014
Pearson
Pearson
Education,
Education,
Inc.Inc. 13 - 1
▶ Frito-Lay memiliki lebih dari tiga lusin
merek makanan ringan dan keripik,
▶ 15 mereknya menjual lebih dari $ 100 juta
pertahun dan 7 mereknya menjual lebih
dari $ 1 miliar.
▶ Merek-mereknya meliputi nama-nama
terkenal
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 2

▶ Produk yang unik menggunakan peralatan yang
didesain secara khusus yang diperlukan untuk
menghasilkan masing2 produk.
▶ Karena proses terspesalisasi sepertl ini menghasilkan
biaya tetap yang tinggi, proses ini harus beroperasi
dalam jumlah yang sangat banyak.
▶ Namun fasillitas yang berfokus pada produk ini,
memperoleh keuntungan dari biaya variabel yang
rendah.
▶ Utilisasi yang tinggi dan kinerja diatas titik impas
membutuhkan kecocokan yang baik antara permintaan
dan kapasitas.

▶ Di kantor pusat Frito-lay dekat Dallas, perencana
menciptakan profil total permintaan
▶ Perencana menggunakan historis penjualan produk,
ramalan produk baru, inovasi produk, promosi produk
serta data permintaan lokal yang dinamis untuk
meramalkan permintaan.
▶ Perencana lalu mencocokkan profil total permintaan
dengan kapasltas yang ada, rencana perluasan
kapasitas, dan biaya. menjadi rencana agregat.
▶ dikomunikasikan ke-17 daerah dan 36 pabrlk.
▶ Setiap triwulan, kantor pusat dan masing2 pabrik
mengubah rencananya masing2 untuk memasukkan
perubahan kondisi pasar dan kinerja pabrik.
▶ Rencana agregat ini dikomunikasikan ke-17 daerah dan
36 pabrlk. Setiap triwulan, kantor pusat dan masing2
pabrik mengubah rencananya masing2 untuk
memasukkan perubahan kondisi pasar dan kinerja
pabrik.
▶ Masing·masing pabrik menggunakan rencana triwulanan
untuk mengembangkan rencana 4 minggu, membuat
produk khusus ke lini produk khusus.
▶ Bahan mentah dan tenaga kerja setiap minggu
diserahkan kesetiap prosesnya.
▶ Perencanaan agregat yang efektif adalah faktor utama
dalam utilisasi yang tinggil dan biaya yang rendah.
▶ Ditunjukkan oleh pangsa pasar perusahaan sebesar
60%
The Planning Process
Long-range plans (over one year)
Figure 13.1 Capacity decisions critical to long range plans
Issues:
Research and Development
New product plans
Capital investments
Facility location/expansion
Top
executives Intermediate-range plans (3 to 18 months)
Issues:
Sales and operations planning
Production planning and budgeting
Operations Setting employment, inventory,
managers with subcontracting levels
sales and Analyzing operating plans
operations Short-range plans (up to 3 months)
planning team Scheduling techniques
Issues:
Job assignments
Operations Ordering
managers, Job scheduling
supervisors, Dispatching
foremen Overtime
Part-time help
Responsibility Planning tasks and time horizons
▶ Koordinasi perkiraan permintaan dengan
area fungsional dan rantai pasokan
▶ Biasanya dilakukan oleh tim lintas fungsi
▶ Tentukan rencana mana yang layak
▶ Keterbatasan harus tercermin
▶ Memberikan peringatan ketika sumber
daya tidak sesuai dengan harapan
▶ Output adalah rencana agregat
Figure 13.2
▶ Keputusan harus dikaitkan dengan
perencanaan strategis dan diintegrasikan
dengan semua area perusahaan di semua
horizon perencanaan
▶ S&OP bertujuan
1. Koordinasi dan integrasi sumber daya
internal dan eksternal diperlukan untuk
rencana agregat yang berhasil
2. Mengkomunikasikan rencana tersebut
kepada pihak yang bertanggung jawab atas
pelaksanaannya
▶ membutuhkan
▶ Unit keseluruhan yang logis untuk mengukur
penjualan dan output
▶ Perkiraan permintaan untuk periode
perencanaan selanjutnya
▶ Metode untuk menentukan biaya yang
relevan
▶ Model yang menggabungkan perkiraan dan
biaya sehingga keputusan penjadwalan dapat
dibuat untuk periode perencanaan
Tujuan dari perencanaan
agregat biasanya untuk
memenuhi permintaan perkiraan
sambil meminimalkan biaya
selama periode perencanaan

Aggregate Planning
QUARTER 1
Jan. Feb. March
150,000 120,000 110,000
QUARTER 2
April May June
100,000 130,000 150,000
QUARTER 3
July Aug. Sept.
180,000 150,000 140,000

Aggregate Planning
▶ Menggabungkan sumber daya yang
tepat ke dalam bentuk umum
▶ Bagian dari sistem perencanaan
produksi yang lebih besar
▶ Disagregasi memecah rencana
menjadi lebih rinci
▶ Disagregasi menghasilkan jadwal
produksi utama

Aggregate Planning
Strategies
1. Perlukah persediaan digunakan agar dapat
mengantisipasi perubahan permintaan?
2. Perlukah perubahan diakomodasikan
dengan mengubah jumlah tenaga kerja?
3. Perlukah digunakan part-timers, overtime, or
idle time untuk mengantisipasi perubahan?
4. Perlukah digunakan subcontractors
sehingga tenaga kerja stabil terjaga?
5. Perlukah harga atau faktor lain berubah
untuk mempengaruhi permintaan?
Pilihan Kapasitas
1. Merubah level inventory
▶ menambah inventory pada periode
permintaan rendah untuk bisa memenuhi
permintaan tinggi pada masa mendatang
▶ Menambah biaya terkait storage, insurance,
penanganan, keamanan, and capital
investment
▶ Kekurangan bisa berarti kehilangan penjualan
karena waktu yang lama dan layanan
pelanggan yang buruk
Capacity Options
2. Varying workforce size by hiring or layoffs
▶ Sesuaikan tingkat produksi dengan
permintaan
▶ Biaya pelatihan dan pemisahan untuk
mempekerjakan dan merumahkan pekerja
▶ Pekerja baru mungkin memiliki produktivitas
yang lebih rendah
▶ Pemberhentian pekerja dapat menurunkan
moral dan produktivitas

Capacity Options
3. Varying production rates through overtime
or idle time
▶ Allows constant workforce
▶ May be difficult to meet large increases in
demand
▶ Overtime can be costly and may drive down
productivity
▶ Absorbing idle time may be difficult

Capacity Options
4. Subcontracting
▶ Kapasitas sementara selama periode
permintaan puncak
▶ Mungkin mahal
▶ Memastikan kualitas dan pengiriman tepat
waktu mungkin sulit
▶ Mengekspos pelanggan Anda ke pesaing
yang mungkin

Capacity Options
5. Using part-time workers
▶ Berguna untuk mengisi posisi yang tidak
memiliki keterampilan atau keterampilan
rendah, terutama dalam layanan

Demand Options
1. Influencing demand
▶ Gunakan iklan atau promosi
untuk meningkatkan
permintaan dalam periode
rendah
▶ Mencoba mengalihkan
permintaan ke periode yang
lambat
▶ Mungkin tidak cukup untuk
menyeimbangkan
permintaan dan kapasitas
Demand Options
2. Back ordering during high-demand
periods
▶ Mengharap pelanggan untuk menunggu
pesanan tanpa kehilangan niat baik atau
pesanan
▶ Paling efektif ketika ada sedikit jika ada
pengganti untuk produk atau layanan
▶ Seringkali menghasilkan penjualan yang
hilang

Demand Options
3. Counterseasonal product and
service mixing
▶Kembangkan campuran produk
dari barang-barang yang
berlawanan
▶Dapat menyebabkan produk atau
layanan di luar bidang keahlian
perusahaan
Aggregate Planning Options
TABLE 13.1 Aggregate Planning Options
OPTION ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES COMMENTS
Changing Perubahan Biaya penyimpanan Applies mainly to
inventory sumber daya persediaan dapat production, not
levels manusia meningkat. service,
dilakukan secara Kekurangan dapat operations.
bertahap atau menyebabkan
tidak sama sekali; penjualan hilang.
tidak ada
perubahan
produksi yang
tiba-tiba.
Varying Avoids the costs Hiring, layoff, and Used where size
workforce of other training costs may of labor pool is
size by alternatives. be significant. large.
hiring or
layoffs

Varying Matches seasonal Overtime premiums; Allows flexibility
production fluctuations tired workers; may within the
rates without hiring/ not meet demand. aggregate plan.
through training costs.
overtime or
idle time
Sub- Permits flexibility Loss of quality Applies mainly in

contracting and smoothing of control; reduced production
the firm’s output. profits; loss of future settings.
business.


Using part- Is less costly and High turnover/ Good for
time more flexible than training costs; unskilled jobs in
workers full-time workers. quality suffers; areas with large
scheduling difficult. temporary labor
pools.
Influencing Tries to use Uncertainty in Creates

demand excess capacity. demand. Hard to marketing ideas.
Discounts draw match demand to Overbooking
new customers. supply exactly. used in some
businesses.

Back May avoid Customer must be Many companies
ordering overtime. Keeps willing to wait, but back order.
during high- capacity constant. goodwill is lost.
demand
periods
Counter- Fully utilizes May require skills or Risky finding

seasonal resources; allows equipment outside products or
product and stable workforce. the firm’s areas of services with
service expertise. opposite demand
mixing patterns.

Mixing Options to Develop a Plan
▶ Strategi campuran mungkin
merupakan cara terbaik untuk
mencapai biaya minimum
▶ Ada banyak strategi campuran yang
mungkin
▶ Menemukan rencana optimal tidak
selalu memungkinkan

Mixing Options to Develop a
Plan
▶ Chase strategy
▶ Sesuaikan tingkat output dengan perkiraan
permintaan untuk setiap periode
▶ Tingkat tenaga kerja bervariasi atau tingkat
produksi bervariasi
▶ Disukai oleh banyak organisasi layanan

Mixing Options to Develop a
Plan
▶ Level strategy
▶ Daily production is uniform
▶ Use inventory or idle time as buffer
▶ Stable production leads to better quality
and productivity
▶ Some combination of capacity options,
a mixed strategy, might be the best
solution

Methods for Aggregate Planning
▶ Graphical Methods
▶ Popular techniques
▶ Mudah dimengerti dan digunakan
▶ Pendekatan coba-coba yang tidak
menjamin solusi yang optimal
▶ Hanya memerlukan perhitungan
terbatasEasy to understand and use

Graphical Methods
1. Tentukan permintaan untuk setiap
periode
2. Tentukan kapasitas untuk waktu reguler,
lembur, dan subkontrak setiap periode
3. Temukan biaya tenaga kerja, biaya
perekrutan dan PHK, dan biaya
penyimpanan inventaris
4. Pertimbangkan kebijakan perusahaan
tentang pekerja dan tingkat persediaan
5. Kembangkan rencana alternatif dan
periksa total biaya mereka
Roofing Supplier Example 1
TABLE 13.2 Monthly Forecasts
DEMAND PER
EXPECTED PRODUCTION DAY
MONTH DEMAND DAYS (COMPUTED)
Jan 900 22 41
Feb 700 18 39
Mar 800 21 38
Apr 1,200 21 57
May 1,500 22 68
June 1,100 20 55
6,200 124
Average Total expected demand

requirement =
Number of production days
6,200
= = 50 units per day
124
Forecast demand Figure 13.3
Production rate per working day
70 – Level production using average

monthly forecast demand
60 –
50 –
40 –
30 –
0 –
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June = Month
     
22 18 21 21 22 20 = Number of
working days
TABLE 13.3 Cost Information

Inventory carrying cost $ 5 per unit per month
Subcontracting cost per unit $20 per unit
Average pay rate $10 per hour ($80 per day)
$17 per hour
Overtime pay rate (above 8 hours per day)
Labor-hours to produce a unit 1.6 hours per unit
Cost of increasing daily production rate $300 per unit
(hiring and training)
Cost of decreasing daily production rate $600 per unit
(layoffs)
o r kf o rce
cons tant w
1 –
Plan
Rencana 1: Tenaga Kerja Konstan Full
PRODUCTION MONTHLY
PRODUCTION AT 50 UNITS DEMAND INVENTORY ENDING
MONTH DAYS PER DAY FORECAST CHANGE INVENTORY
Jan 22 1,100 900 +200 200
Feb 18 900 700 +200 400
Mar 21 1,050 800 +250 650
Apr 21 1,050 1,200 –150 500
May 22 1,100 1,500 –400 100
June 20 1,000 1,100 –100 0
1,850
Total units of inventory carried over from one

month to the next = 1,850 units
Workforce required to produce 50 units per day = 10 workers
o r kf o rce
cons tant w
1 –
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Plan 13 - 35
Rencana 1: Tenaga Kerja Konstan Full
COST PRODUCTION CALCULATIONS

MONTHLY
PRODUCTION AT 50 UNITS DEMAND INVENTORY ENDING
Inventory
MONTH carrying
DAYS PER DAY (= 1,850
FORECAST units carried x $5 per
CHANGE INVENTORY
Jan 22 $9,250
1,100 unit)
900 +200 200
Feb 18 900 700 +200 400
Regular-time labor (= 10 workers x $80 per day x
Mar 21 1,050
99,200 800days)
124 +250 650
Apr 21 1,050 1,200 –150 500
Other
May costs (overtime,
22 1,100 1,500 –400 100
hiring, layoffs,
June 20 1,000 1,100 –100 0
subcontracting) 0
1,850
Total cost
$108,450
Total units of inventory carried over from one
month to the next = 1,850 units
Workforce required to produce 50 units per day = 10 workers


Rencana2 :
Menggunakan Sub Kontrak dgn Tenaga Kerja Konstan
In-house production = 38 units per day
x 124 days
= 4,712 units
Subcontract units = 6,200 – 4,712
= 1,488 units
COST CALCULATIONS
Regular-time labor (= 7.6 workers x $80 per day x
$75,392 124 days)
Subcontracting (= 1,488 units x $20 per unit)
29,760
Total cost
$105,152
Rencana2 :
Menggunakan Sub Kontrak dgn Tenaga Kerja Konstan
Forecast demand
70 –
Level production
60 – using lowest
monthly forecast
demand
50 –
40 –
30 –
0 –
     
22 18 21 21 22 20 = Number of
working days
Example 4; Rencana 3 :
Perekrutan dan Pemberhentian Tenaga Kerja
TABLE 13.4 Cost Computations for Plan 3
BASIC
PRODUCTION EXTRA COST OF EXTRA COST OF
DAILY COST (DEMAND INCREASING DECREASING
FORECAST PROD X 1.6 HRS/UNIT PRODUCTION PRODUCTION
MONTH (UNITS) RATE X $10/HR) (HIRING COST) (LAYOFF COST) TOTAL COST
Jan 900 41 14,400 — —

14,400
$1,200
Feb 700 39 11,200
—
(= 2 x $600) 12,400
$600
Mar 800 38 12,800 —
(= 1 x $600) 13,400
$5,700
Apr 57 19,200 — 24,900
1,200 (= 19 x $300)
$3,300
May 1,500 68 24,000 (= 11 x $300)
— 24,300
$7,800
June 1,100 55 17,600 —
(= 13 x $600) 25,400
$99,200 $9,000 $9,600 $117,800
Forecast demand and
monthly production
70 –
60 –
50 –
40 –
30 –
0 –
     
22 18 21 21 22 20 = Number of
working days
Comparison of Three Plans
TABLE 13.5 Comparison of the Three Plans

COST PLAN 1 PLAN 2 PLAN 3
Inventory carrying $ 9,250 $ 0 $ 0
Regular labor 99,200 75,392 99,200
Overtime labor 0 0 0
Hiring 0 0 9,000
Layoffs 0 0 9,600
Subcontracting 0 29,760 0
Total cost $108,450 $105,152 $117,800
Plan 2 is the lowest cost option

Mathematical Approaches
▶ Useful for generating strategies
▶ Transportation Method of Linear Programming
▶Menghasilkan rencana yang optimal
▶Bekerja dengan baik untuk inventaris, lembur,
subkontrak
▶ General form of linear programming
▶ Simulation

Aggregate Planning in Services
▶ Most services use combination strategies
and mixed plans
▶ Controlling the cost of labor is critical
1. Accurate scheduling of labor-hours to assure
quick response to customer demand
2. An on-call labor resource to cover
unexpected demand
3. Flexibility of individual worker skills
4. Flexibility in rate of output or hours of work

Five Service Scenarios
▶ Restaurants
1. Smoothing the production process
2. Determining the optimal workforce size
▶ Hospitals
▶ Responding to patient demand
▶ National Chains of Small Service Firms
▶ Planning done at national level and at
local level

Five Service Scenarios
▶ Miscellaneous Services
▶ Plan human resource requirements
▶ Manage demand
▶ Airline industry
▶ Extremely complex planning problem
▶ Involves number of flights, number of
passengers, air and ground personnel,
allocation of seats to fare classes
▶ Resources spread through the entire system

Revenue Management
▶ Allocating resources to customers at
prices that will maximize revenue
1. Service or product can be sold in advance of
consumption
2. Demand fluctuates
3. Capacity is relatively fixed
4. Demand can be segmented
5. Variable costs are low and fixed costs are
high
Revenue Management Example
Room sales Demand Figure 13.5
Curve
Potential customers exist who are
100 willing to pay more than the $15
variable cost of the room, but not
$150
Passed-up Some customers who paid

contribution $150 were actually willing to
Total 50 pay more for the room
$ contribution
= (Price) x
(50
rooms)
= ($150 - Money left
$15) on the table
x (50)
= $6,750 $15 $150 Price
Variable cost Price charged
of room for room
Revenue Management Example
Room sales Demand Figure 13.6
Curve
Total $ contribution =
100 (1st price) x 30 rooms + (2nd price) x 30 rooms =
($100 - $15) x 30 + ($200 - $15) x 30 =
$2,550 + $5,550 = $8,100
60
30
$15 $100 $200 Price

Variable cost Price 1 Price 2
of room for room for room
Revenue Management Approaches
▶ Airlines, hotels, rental cars, etc.

▶ Tend to have predictable duration of service
and use variable pricing to control availability
and revenue
▶ Movies, stadiums, performing arts centers
▶ Tend to have predicable duration and fixed
prices but use seating locations and times to
manage revenue

Revenue Management Approaches
▶ Restaurants, golf courses, ISPs

▶ Generally have unpredictable duration of
customer use and fixed prices, may use “off-
peak” rates to shift demand and manage
revenue
▶ Health care businesses, etc.
▶ Tend to have unpredictable duration of
service and variable pricing, often attempt to
control duration of service

Making Revenue Management
Work
1. Multiple pricing structures must be
feasible and appear logical to the
customer
2. Forecasts of the use and duration of
use
3. Changes in demand

13-Perencanaan Aggregat

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

13-Perencanaan Aggregat

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

13

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 2

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 3

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 11

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 12

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 13

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 16

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 17

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 18

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 19

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 21

TABLE 13.1 Aggregate Planning Options

Sub- Permits flexibility Loss of quality Applies mainly in

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 24

TABLE 13.1 Aggregate Planning Options

Influencing Tries to use Uncertainty in Creates

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 25

Counter- Fully utilizes May require skills or Risky finding

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 26

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 27

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 28

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 29

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 30

Average Total expected demand

70 – Level production using average

TABLE 13.3 Cost Information

Total units of inventory carried over from one

COST PRODUCTION CALCULATIONS

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 36

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 37

Jan 900 41 14,400 — —

TABLE 13.5 Comparison of the Three Plans

Plan 2 is the lowest cost option

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 42

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 43

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 46

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 47

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 48

Passed-up Some customers who paid

$15 $100 $200 Price

▶ Airlines, hotels, rental cars, etc.

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 52

▶ Restaurants, golf courses, ISPs

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 53

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 13 - 54

Anda mungkin juga menyukai